{"id":38831,"date":"2026-02-21T05:32:52","date_gmt":"2026-02-21T05:32:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/mufg%ec%9d%98-%eb%a1%9c%ec%9d%b4%eb%93%9c-%ec%b0%ac%ec%9d%80-bi%ea%b0%80-2026%eb%85%84-%ec%a0%84%eb%a7%9d%ec%9d%84-%ec%9c%a0%ec%a7%80%ed%95%98%ea%b3%a0-%ec%9e%88%eb%8b%a4%ea%b3%a0-%eb%a7%90%ed%95%98\/"},"modified":"2026-02-21T05:32:52","modified_gmt":"2026-02-21T05:32:52","slug":"mufg%ec%9d%98-%eb%a1%9c%ec%9d%b4%eb%93%9c-%ec%b0%ac%ec%9d%80-bi%ea%b0%80-2026%eb%85%84-%ec%a0%84%eb%a7%9d%ec%9d%84-%ec%9c%a0%ec%a7%80%ed%95%98%ea%b3%a0-%ec%9e%88%eb%8b%a4%ea%b3%a0-%eb%a7%90%ed%95%98","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/mufg%ec%9d%98-%eb%a1%9c%ec%9d%b4%eb%93%9c-%ec%b0%ac%ec%9d%80-bi%ea%b0%80-2026%eb%85%84-%ec%a0%84%eb%a7%9d%ec%9d%84-%ec%9c%a0%ec%a7%80%ed%95%98%ea%b3%a0-%ec%9e%88%eb%8b%a4%ea%b3%a0-%eb%a7%90%ed%95%98\/","title":{"rendered":"MUFG\uc758 \ub85c\uc774\ub4dc \ucc2c\uc740 BI\uac00 2026\ub144 \uc804\ub9dd\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ub9d0\ud558\uba70, \uacfc\uc5f4\uc744 \uc6a9\uc778\ud560 \uacbd\uc6b0 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc704\ud5d8\uc774 \ub8e8\ud53c\uc544 \uc57d\uc138\ub85c \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \uc9c0\uc801\ud588\ub2e4."},"content":{"rendered":"\uc778\ub3c4\ub124\uc2dc\uc544 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589(Bank Indonesia)\uc740 2026\ub144 \uc131\uc7a5\ub960 \uc804\ub9dd\uc744 4.9%~5.7%\ub85c \uc720\uc9c0\ud588\uace0, \ubb3c\uac00\uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960(\uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158) \ubaa9\ud45c \ubc94\uc704\ub3c4 1.5%~3.5%\ub85c \uc720\uc9c0\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub2e4\ub9cc \uacbd\uae30\uac00 \uacfc\uc5f4(\uacbd\uc81c \ud65c\ub3d9\uc774 \uc9c0\ub098\uce58\uac8c \ube60\ub974\uac8c \ub298\uc5b4 \ubb3c\uac00\uac00 \uc624\ub974\uae30 \uc26c\uc6b4 \uc0c1\ud0dc)\ub418\uace0 \uc0b0\ucd9c\uac2d(output gap, \uc2e4\uc81c \uc0dd\uc0b0\ub7c9\uacfc \uacbd\uc81c\uac00 \ub0bc \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \ucd5c\ub300 \uc0dd\uc0b0\ub7c9\uc758 \ucc28\uc774)\uc774 \uc904\uc5b4\ub4e4\uba74 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc704\ud5d8\uc774 \uc704\ucabd(\ub354 \ub192\uc544\uc9c8 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131)\uc73c\ub85c \uce58\uc6b0\uccd0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \uc774 \uacbd\uc6b0 \ub8e8\ud53c\uc544(\uc778\ub3c4\ub124\uc2dc\uc544 \ud1b5\ud654)\uac00 \uc57d\uc138(\uac00\uce58 \ud558\ub77d)\uac00 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \uc124\uba85\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n\ucd5c\uadfc \uad6d\ucc44 \uacbd\ub9e4(\uc815\ubd80\uac00 \uad6d\ucc44\ub97c \ubc1c\ud589\ud574 \ud22c\uc790\uc790\uc5d0\uac8c \ud30c\ub294 \uc808\ucc28)\uc5d0\uc11c \uc218\uc694\uac00 \uc57d\ud574\uc84c\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. 2\uc6d4 18\uc77c \uacbd\ub9e4\uc5d0\uc11c 10\ub144\ubb3c\uc758 \uc751\ucc30\ubc30\uc728(bid\u2011to\u2011cover ratio, \ubc1c\ud589 \uaddc\ubaa8 \ub300\ube44 \ub4e4\uc5b4\uc628 \ub9e4\uc218 \uc8fc\ubb38 \uaddc\ubaa8\uc758 \ube44\uc728)\uc740 1.71\ubc30\ub85c, 2025\ub144 3\uc6d4 \uc774\ud6c4 \ucd5c\uc800\uc774\uba70 2024~2025\ub144 \ud3c9\uade0\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub0ae\uc558\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. 5\ub144\ubb3c\uc758 \uc751\ucc30\ubc30\uc728\uc740 1.47\ubc30\ub85c, 2024\ub144 5\uc6d4 \uc774\ud6c4 \ucd5c\uc800\uc600\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n<h3>\uc218\uc775\ub960 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uacfc \ub8e8\ud53c\uc544 \uc555\ub825<\/h3>\n\ubaa8\ud615 \ud3c9\uac00(model assessment, \uacbd\uc81c \ubcc0\uc218\ub85c \uac00\uaca9\uc758 \uc801\uc815 \uc218\uc900\uc744 \uacc4\uc0b0\ud558\ub294 \ubd84\uc11d)\ub294 10\ub144 \ub9cc\uae30 \uad6d\ucc44\uac00 \uac70\uc2dc \ud380\ub354\uba58\ud138(macro fundamentals, \uc131\uc7a5\u00b7\ubb3c\uac00\u00b7\ub300\uc678\uc218\uc9c0 \uac19\uc740 \uae30\ucd08 \uacbd\uc81c \uc5ec\uac74) \ub300\ube44 \uace0\ud3c9\uac00(\uac00\uaca9\uc774 \ub108\ubb34 \ub192\uc544 \uc218\uc775\ub960\uc774 \ub0ae\uc740 \uc0c1\ud0dc)\ub410\ub2e4\uace0 \ubd24\uace0, \uae30\uc220\uc801 \uc9c0\ud45c(technical indicators, \uacfc\uac70 \uac00\uaca9\u00b7\uac70\ub798 \ud750\ub984\uc73c\ub85c \ubc29\ud5a5\uc744 \uc77d\ub294 \uc9c0\ud45c)\ub294 \uad6d\ucc44 \uc218\uc775\ub960 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc744 \uac00\ub9ac\ud0b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7f0 \ud658\uacbd\uc740 \ub8e8\ud53c\uc544\uc5d0 \ucd94\uac00 \ubd80\ub2f4\uc744 \uc8fc\uace0, \uc778\ub3c4\ub124\uc2dc\uc544 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc774 \uc810\uc9c4\uc801 \uc644\ud654(gradual easing, \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \ub4f1\uc73c\ub85c \uc815\ucc45\uc744 \uc870\uae08\uc529 \ub290\uc2a8\ud558\uac8c \ud558\ub294 \uac83)\ub97c \uace0\ubbfc\ud558\ub294 \uacfc\uc815\uc5d0\uc11c \uc120\ud0dd\uc744 \ub354 \uc5b4\ub835\uac8c \ub9cc\ub4ed\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\nSRBI \uc794\uc561(outstanding, \ubc1c\ud589\ub41c \ub4a4 \uc544\uc9c1 \uc0c1\ud658\ub418\uc9c0 \uc54a\uace0 \ub0a8\uc544 \uc788\ub294 \uaddc\ubaa8)\uc740 2025\ub144 11\uc6d4 \uc774\ud6c4 \uc21c\uc99d(net basis, \ub298\uc5b4\ub09c \uaddc\ubaa8\uac00 \uc904\uc5b4\ub4e0 \uaddc\ubaa8\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ud070 \uc0c1\ud0dc)\ud588\uace0, SRBI \uc218\uc775\ub960\uc740 \uc9c0\ub09c\ud574 9\uc6d4 \uc774\ud6c4 \uc57d 11~14bp \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. bp(\ubca0\uc774\uc2dc\uc2a4\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8, \uae08\ub9ac 0.01%p)\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ube44\uac70\uc8fc\uc790(non\u2011resident, \ud574\uc678 \ud22c\uc790\uc790) \uc790\uae08\uc758 SRBI \uc720\uc785(inflows, \uc678\uad6d \uc790\uae08\uc774 \ub4e4\uc5b4\uc624\ub294 \uac83)\uc740 12\uc6d4 \uc774\ud6c4 \uc18c\ud3ed \ub298\uc5b4, \uc8fc\uc2dd\uacfc \uad6d\ucc44\uc5d0\uc11c\uc758 \uc678\uad6d\uc778 \uc720\ucd9c(outflows, \uc790\uae08\uc774 \ube60\uc838\ub098\uac00\ub294 \uac83)\uc744 \uc77c\ubd80 \uc0c1\uc1c4\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n\uc778\ub3c4\ub124\uc2dc\uc544 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc740 2026\ub144 \uc131\uc7a5\ub960 \uc804\ub9dd\uc744 4.9%~5.7%\ub85c \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc704\ud5d8\uc5d0 \ub354 \uc8fc\ubaa9\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. 2026\ub144 1\uc6d4 \ucd5c\uc2e0 \uc790\ub8cc\uc5d0\uc11c \uc18c\ube44\uc790\ubb3c\uac00(headline inflation, \uc804\uccb4 \ud488\ubaa9\uc744 \ud569\uce5c \ub300\ud45c \ubb3c\uac00)\uac00 3.6%\ub85c \uc62c\ub77c \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589 \ubaa9\ud45c \uc0c1\ub2e8(3.5%)\uc744 \uc57d\uac04 \ub118\uc5c8\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7f0 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9 \uc555\ub825\uc740 \uacbd\uae30\uac00 \uacfc\uc5f4\ub420 \uacbd\uc6b0 \ub8e8\ud53c\uc544\uc5d0 \ud070 \ubd80\ub2f4\uc774 \ub429\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n\uad6d\ucc44 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \uc774\ubbf8 \ubd80\ub2f4 \uc2e0\ud638\ub97c \ubcf4\uc774\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. 2\uc6d4 18\uc77c \uad6d\ucc44 \uacbd\ub9e4\uc758 \uc751\ucc30\ubc30\uc728\uc774 1.71\ubc30\uc5d0 \uadf8\ucce4\uace0, \uc774\ub294 2025\ub144 \ub9d0\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c4 \uc57d\ud55c \uc218\uc694 \ud750\ub984\uacfc \uac19\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \ud604\uc7ac 10\ub144\ubb3c \uc218\uc775\ub960\uc774 \uc57d 6.8% \uc218\uc900\uc774\ub354\ub77c\ub3c4, \uad6d\ucc44 \uac00\uaca9 \ud558\ub77d\uacfc \ud568\uaed8 \uc218\uc775\ub960\uc774 \ub354 \uc624\ub97c \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n<h3>\uae08\ub9ac\uc640 \uc678\ud658(FX) \ub9e4\ub9e4 \uc2dc\uc0ac\uc810<\/h3>\n\ubaa8\ud615 \uacb0\uacfc\uac00 10\ub144\ubb3c \uad6d\ucc44\uc758 \uace0\ud3c9\uac00\ub97c \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud558\ub294 \ub9cc\ud07c, \ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488(derivatives, \uae30\ucd08\uc790\uc0b0 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \uac00\uce58\uac00 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc774\ub294 \uacc4\uc57d) \ud22c\uc790\uc790\ub294 \uc778\ub3c4\ub124\uc2dc\uc544 \uae08\ub9ac \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc5d0 \uc720\ub9ac\ud55c \uc804\ub7b5\uc744 \uac80\ud1a0\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc608\ub97c \ub4e4\uc5b4 \uc774\uc790\uc728 \uc2a4\uc651(interest rate swaps, \uace0\uc815\uae08\ub9ac\uc640 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uae08\ub9ac \uc774\uc790\ub97c \uc11c\ub85c \ubc14\uafb8\ub294 \uacc4\uc57d)\uc774\ub098 \uc635\uc158(options, \ubbf8\ub9ac \uc815\ud55c \uac00\uaca9\uc73c\ub85c \uc0ac\uace0\ud314 \uad8c\ub9ac)\uc744 \ud65c\uc6a9\ud574 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uba87 \uc8fc \uc548\uc5d0 7.0% \uc218\uc900\uc73c\ub85c\uc758 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc784\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud604\uc7ac \uad6d\ucc44 \uac00\uaca9\uc740 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uacfc \ud574\uc678 \uc218\uc694 \uc57d\ud654\ub97c \ucda9\ubd84\ud788 \ubc18\uc601\ud558\uc9c0 \ubabb\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubd05\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n\uc774\ub7f0 \uad6d\ub0b4 \uc694\uc778\uc740 \ub8e8\ud53c\uc544\uc5d0 \ubd80\ub2f4\uc774 \ub420 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud07d\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub2ec\ub7ec\/\ub8e8\ud53c\uc544(USD\/IDR)\uac00 \ud604\uc7ac 16,100 \uadfc\ucc98\uc5d0\uc11c \uac70\ub798\ub418\ub294 \uac00\uc6b4\ub370, \uad6d\ucc44 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c \uc790\uae08 \uc720\ucd9c\uc774 \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c0\uba74 2025\ub144 10\uc6d4\uc5d0 \ub9c8\uc9c0\ub9c9\uc73c\ub85c \uc2dc\ud5d8\ud588\ub358 16,350 \uc800\ud56d\uc120(resistance level, \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \uc62c\ub77c\uac08 \ub54c \ub9c9\ud788\uae30 \uc26c\uc6b4 \uad6c\uac04) \ucabd\uc73c\ub85c \uac08 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. USD\/IDR \ucf5c\uc635\uc158(call options, \uc815\ud574\uc9c4 \uac00\uaca9\uc73c\ub85c \uc0b4 \uad8c\ub9ac)\uc744 \ub9e4\uc218\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc740 \uc774\ub7f0 \uc57d\uc138 \uc804\ub9dd\uc744 \ud65c\uc6a9\ud558\uba74\uc11c \uc704\ud5d8\uc744 \uad00\ub9ac\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\ubc95\uc774 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n\ud55c\ud3b8 \uc778\ub3c4\ub124\uc2dc\uc544 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589 \uc99d\uad8c\uc778 SRBI\ub294 12\uc6d4 \uc774\ud6c4 \uc218\uc775\ub960 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc5d0 \ud798\uc785\uc5b4 \ud574\uc678 \uc790\uae08 \uc720\uc785\uc774 \uc18c\ud3ed \uc788\uc5c8\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uad6d\ucc44\uc640 \uc8fc\uc2dd\uc5d0\uc11c\uc758 \uc790\uae08 \uc720\ucd9c\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ub8e8\ud53c\uc544\uc758 \uc644\ucda9 \uc5ed\ud560\uc744 \uc870\uae08 \ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc \uc774 SRBI \uc720\uc785\ub9cc\uc73c\ub85c\ub294 \uc804\ubc18\uc801\uc778 \uc57d\uc138(bearish sentiment, \ud558\ub77d \ucabd\uc73c\ub85c \uae30\uc6b8\uc5b4\uc9c4 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc2ec\ub9ac)\ub97c \ubc14\uafb8\uae30\uc5d0\ub294 \ubd80\uc871\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n<b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">VT Markets \uc2e4\uacc4\uc88c \ub9cc\ub4e4\uae30<\/a>\u00a0\uadf8\ub9ac\uace0\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login\">\uc9c0\uae08 \uac70\ub798 \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uae30<\/a>\u00a0<\/b>\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph-->\n<p><b>VT Markets \ub77c\uc774\ube0c \uacc4\uc815\uc744 \ub9cc\ub4e4\uace0 \uc9c0\uae08 \ubc14\ub85c <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/trade-now\/\">\uac70\ub798<\/a>\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uc138\uc694.<\/b><\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\uc778\ub2c8 \uc2dc\uc7a5, \uc9c0\uae08\uc774 \uae30\ud68c\uc778\uac00 \uc704\uae30\uc778\uac00? BI \uc131\uc7a5\uc804\ub9dd \uc720\uc9c0\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc0c1\ubc29 \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\ub85c \ub8e8\ud53c\uc544 \uc555\ubc15. \uad6d\ucc44 \uc785\ucc30 \ubd80\uc9c4\u00b7\ucc44\uad8c \uacfc\ub300\ud3c9\uac00\ub85c \uae08\ub9ac \uc0c1\uc2b9 \uc2e0\ud638, SRBI \uc720\uc785\uc740 \uc644\ucda9\uc5d0 \uadf8\uccd0. &#8211; vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-38831","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38831","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/62"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=38831"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38831\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=38831"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=38831"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=38831"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}