{"id":38805,"date":"2026-02-20T22:33:32","date_gmt":"2026-02-20T22:33:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/%eb%b3%b4%ec%8a%a4%ed%8b%b1%ec%9d%80-%ec%9d%b8%ed%94%8c%eb%a0%88%ec%9d%b4%ec%85%98%ec%9d%b4-%eb%8b%a4%ec%8b%9c-%ec%83%81%ec%8a%b9%ec%84%b8%eb%a1%9c-%eb%8f%8c%ec%95%84%ec%84%a4-%ea%b2%bd%ec%9a%b0\/"},"modified":"2026-02-20T22:33:32","modified_gmt":"2026-02-20T22:33:32","slug":"%eb%b3%b4%ec%8a%a4%ed%8b%b1%ec%9d%80-%ec%9d%b8%ed%94%8c%eb%a0%88%ec%9d%b4%ec%85%98%ec%9d%b4-%eb%8b%a4%ec%8b%9c-%ec%83%81%ec%8a%b9%ec%84%b8%eb%a1%9c-%eb%8f%8c%ec%95%84%ec%84%a4-%ea%b2%bd%ec%9a%b0","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/%eb%b3%b4%ec%8a%a4%ed%8b%b1%ec%9d%80-%ec%9d%b8%ed%94%8c%eb%a0%88%ec%9d%b4%ec%85%98%ec%9d%b4-%eb%8b%a4%ec%8b%9c-%ec%83%81%ec%8a%b9%ec%84%b8%eb%a1%9c-%eb%8f%8c%ec%95%84%ec%84%a4-%ea%b2%bd%ec%9a%b0\/","title":{"rendered":"\ubcf4\uc2a4\ud2f1\uc740 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc774 \ub2e4\uc2dc \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc138\ub85c \ub3cc\uc544\uc124 \uacbd\uc6b0 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1\uc774 \ucd09\ubc1c\ub420 \uc218 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \uc911\ub9bd\uae08\ub9ac\ub294 \ud604\uc7ac \uc815\ucc45\uae08\ub9ac \uc218\uc900\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc57d\uac04 \ub0ae\ub2e4\uace0 \ub9d0\ud588\ub2e4."},"content":{"rendered":"\ub77c\ud30c\uc5d8 \ubcf4\uc2a4\ud2f1\uc740 **\uc911\ub9bd\uc801\uc778 \ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45 \uc218\uc900(\uacbd\uc81c\ub97c \uacfc\uc5f4\uc2dc\ud0a4\uc9c0\ub3c4, \uc704\ucd95\uc2dc\ud0a4\uc9c0\ub3c4 \uc54a\ub294 \uae08\ub9ac \uc218\uc900)**\uc774 \ud604\uc7ac \uc5f0\uc900 \uc815\ucc45\uae08\ub9ac\ubcf4\ub2e4 **0.25~0.50%\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8 \ub0ae\uc744 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4**\uace0 \ub9d0\ud588\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub294 **\ubb3c\uac00\uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960(\uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158)**\uc774 \uc608\uc0c1\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub354 \uc624\ub974\uba74 \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 **\uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1**\uc744 \uace0\ub824\ud574\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4\uace0 \ud588\ub2e4.  \n\n\uadf8\ub294 2026\ub144 **\uad6d\ub0b4\ucd1d\uc0dd\uc0b0(GDP: \ud55c \ub098\ub77c\uc5d0\uc11c \uc77c\uc815 \uae30\uac04 \ub3d9\uc548 \uc0dd\uc0b0\ub41c \uc7ac\ud654\u00b7\uc11c\ube44\uc2a4\uc758 \ucd1d\ud569)** \uc131\uc7a5\ub960 \uc804\ub9dd\uce58\ub97c 2.4%, 2027\ub144\uc740 2.1%\ub85c \uc81c\uc2dc\ud588\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub294 2028\ub144\uc5d0 \uc131\uc7a5\ub960\uc774 **\uc7a5\uae30 \ud3c9\uade0(\ucd94\uc138)** \uc218\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \ub3cc\uc544\uc62c \uac83\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \ub9d0\ud588\ub2e4.  \n\n<h3>Neutral Rate Implications<\/h3>  \n\uadf8\ub294 **\uc7ac\uc815 \ubd80\uc591(\uc815\ubd80\uac00 \uc9c0\ucd9c\uc744 \ub298\ub9ac\uac70\ub098 \uc138\uae08\uc744 \uc904\uc5ec \uacbd\uae30\ub97c \ub5a0\ubc1b\uce58\ub294 \uc815\ucc45)**\uc774 \ub354 \ub298\uc5b4\ub0a0 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf4\uc774\uba70, \uc774\ub294 \uacbd\uc81c\ub97c \ud0a4\uc6b8 \uac83\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \ub9d0\ud588\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c \uc774\ub294 **\ubb3c\uac00\ub97c \uc62c\ub9ac\ub294 \uc555\ub825**\ub3c4 \ub354\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ud588\ub2e4.  \n\n\uadf8\ub294 \ucd5c\uadfc **PCE \ubb3c\uac00(\uac1c\uc778\uc18c\ube44\uc9c0\ucd9c \ubb3c\uac00: \ubbf8\uad6d\uc5d0\uc11c \uc18c\ube44\uc790\uac00 \uc2e4\uc81c\ub85c \uc9c0\ucd9c\ud55c \uac00\uaca9 \ubcc0\ud654\ub97c \ubc18\uc601\ud558\ub294 \ubb3c\uac00\uc9c0\ud45c)**\uac00 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 **2% \ubaa9\ud45c**\uc640 \uac70\ub9ac\uac00 \uba40\ub2e4\uace0 \ub9d0\ud588\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub294 \ubb3c\uac00\uac00 \u201c**\ub098\uc05c \ubc29\ud5a5**\u201d\uc73c\ub85c \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc5ec \ub2e4\uc2dc \uc624\ub974\uae30 \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uba74 **\uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1**\uc744 \uac80\ud1a0\ud574\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4\uace0 \ud588\ub2e4.  \n\n\uadf8\ub294 **\uc5f0\ubc29\ub300\ubc95\uc6d0 \ud310\uacb0**\uc774 \uc0c8\ub85c\uc6b4 **\uacf5\uae09 \uae30\uc900(\uc81c\ud488\u00b7\uc11c\ube44\uc2a4\ub97c \uacf5\uae09\ud560 \ub54c \uc9c0\ucf1c\uc57c \ud558\ub294 \uaddc\uc815)**\uacfc **\uac00\uaca9 \uae30\uc900(\uac00\uaca9 \ucc45\uc815\uacfc \uad00\ub828\ub41c \uaddc\uc815)**\uc774 \uc720\uc9c0\ub420\uc9c0, \ubc14\ub014\uc9c0\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc744 \ub9cc\ub4e4 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ub9d0\ud588\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c \ud589\uc815\ubd80\uac00 \ub2e4\ub978 \ubc29\uc2dd\uc73c\ub85c \uac19\uc740 **\uad00\uc138(\uc218\uc785\ud488\uc5d0 \ub9e4\uae30\ub294 \uc138\uae08)**\ub97c \ubd80\uacfc\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub294\uc9c0, \uc544\ub2c8\uba74 \uc81c\uc57d\uc744 \ubc1b\ub294\uc9c0\ub3c4 \ubb38\uc81c\ub85c \uc81c\uae30\ud588\ub2e4.  \n\n\uc5f0\uc900 \uc815\ucc45\uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \ud604\uc7ac 4.75%\uc778 \uc810\uc744 \uace0\ub824\ud558\uba74, \uc774\ub7f0 \ubc1c\uc5b8\uc740 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc774 \ub2e8\uae30\uac04\uc5d0 **\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub0b4\ub9b4 \uc5ec\uc9c0**\uac00 \uac70\uc758 \uc5c6\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf8\ub2e4\ub294 \ub73b\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uc5f0\ub9d0\uae4c\uc9c0 \ucd5c\uc18c \ub450 \ucc28\ub840 **\uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558**\ub97c \uc608\uc0c1\ud574 \uc628 \uac83\uacfc \ub9de\uc11c\ub294 \ub0b4\uc6a9\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7f0 \uc5b4\uc870 \ubcc0\ud654\ub294 \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \ub354 **\uac15\uacbd\ud55c \ud0dc\ub3c4(\uae34\ucd95 \ucabd: \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc62c\ub9ac\uac70\ub098 \uc624\ub798 \ub192\uac8c \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\ub824\ub294 \ucabd)**\ub97c \uc120\ud0dd\ud560 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc758\ubbf8\ub2e4.  \n\n<h3>Market Positioning Implications<\/h3>  \n\ubb3c\uac00 \uc9c0\ud45c\ub3c4 \uc774\ub7f0 \uc2e0\uc911\ud568\uc744 \ub4b7\ubc1b\uce68\ud55c\ub2e4. 2026\ub144 1\uc6d4 **\uadfc\uc6d0 PCE(Core PCE: \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc774 \ud070 \uc2dd\ub8cc\ud488\u00b7\uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0\ub97c \ube80 PCE \ubb3c\uac00)**\uac00 \uc608\uc0c1\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub192\uc740 3.1%\ub85c \ub098\uc654\uace0, 2025\ub144 \ub9d0\uc758 2.9%\uc5d0\uc11c \uc62c\ub77c\uac14\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \ubb3c\uac00\uac00 \uafb8\uc900\ud788 \uaebe\uc774\ub358 \ud750\ub984\uc774 \ub4a4\uc9d1\ud614\ub2e4\ub294 \ub73b\uc774\uba70, \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \u201c\ub098\uc05c \ubc29\ud5a5\u201d\uc73c\ub85c \uac08 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc6b0\ub824\uc5d0 \ud798\uc744 \uc2e4\uc5b4\uc900\ub2e4. \uc62c\ud574 GDP \uc131\uc7a5\ub960\uc774 2.4%\ub85c \ud0c4\ud0c4\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ub418\ub294 \ub9cc\ud07c, \ubb3c\uac00 \uc555\ub825\uc774 \uae30\ub300\ub9cc\ud07c \ube68\ub9ac \uc904\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc744 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.  \n\n\uae08\ub9ac \uac70\ub798\uc790 \uc785\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc774\uc81c \uc704\ud5d8\uc774 **\uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \ub354 \uc624\ub798 \ub192\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc5d0 \uba38\ubb3c\uac70\ub098**, \uc2ec\uc9c0\uc5b4 **\uc624\ub97c** \uac00\ub2a5\uc131 \ucabd\uc73c\ub85c \uae30\uc6b8\uc5c8\ub2e4\ub294 \ub73b\uc774\ub2e4. \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 2026\ub144 \ud558\ubc18\uae30 \ub9cc\uae30\uc758 **SOFR \uc120\ubb3c(SOFR: \ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 \ud558\ub8e8\uc9dc\ub9ac \ub2f4\ubcf4\ubd80 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ubc14\ud0d5\uc73c\ub85c \ud55c \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac, SOFR \uc120\ubb3c: \ubbf8\ub798\uc758 \ub2e8\uae30\uae08\ub9ac \uae30\ub300\ub97c \uac70\ub798\ud558\ub294 \uc120\ubb3c\uacc4\uc57d)**\uc744 **\ub9e4\ub3c4**\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\uc774 \ud569\ub9ac\uc801\uc77c \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf8\ub2e4. \uc774 \uc804\ub7b5\uc740 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \ud604\uc7ac \uc608\uc0c1\ud558\ub294 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uc804\ub9dd\uc744 \uac70\ub450\uace0 **\uae08\ub9ac \uacbd\ub85c\ub97c \ub354 \ub192\uac8c \ub2e4\uc2dc \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ubc18\uc601**\ud560 \ub54c \uc774\uc775\uc774 \ub09c\ub2e4.  \n\n\uc8fc\uc2dd\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc774 \uacbd\uace0\ub97c \uc7a0\uc7ac\uc801 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud574 **\ubc29\uc5b4(\ud5e4\uc9c0)**\ub97c \uc0ac\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4\ub294 \uc2e0\ud638\ub85c \ubcfc \ud544\uc694\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4. **VIX(\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc9c0\uc218: S&#038;P 500 \uc635\uc158 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0\uc11c \uacc4\uc0b0\ud55c \u2018\uacf5\ud3ec\uc9c0\uc218\u2019\ub85c, \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uc608\uc0c1 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc90c)**\ub294 14 \uc218\uc900\uc758 \ub0ae\uc740 \uac12 \uadfc\ucc98\uc5d0 \uba38\ubb3c\uace0 \uc788\ub294\ub370, \uc774\ub294 2025\ub144 \ub9d0 \ud070 \uc870\uc815 \uc774\uc804\uc5d0 \ubcf4\uc600\ub358 \uac83\uacfc \ube44\uc2b7\ud55c **\uc548\uc774\ud568**\uc744 \ub73b\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc9c0\uae08 **VIX \ucf5c\uc635\uc158(\uc815\ud574\uc9c4 \uac12\uc5d0 \uc0b4 \uad8c\ub9ac)**\uc774\ub098 **S&#038;P 500 \ud48b\uc635\uc158(\uc815\ud574\uc9c4 \uac12\uc5d0 \ud314 \uad8c\ub9ac)**\uc744 \uc0ac\ub294 \uac83\uc740 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ucda9\uaca9\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud558\ub294 \ube44\uad50\uc801 \uc800\ub834\ud55c \ubc29\ubc95\uc774\ub2e4.  \n\n\ub610\ud55c \uc774\ub7f0 \ubc1c\uc5b8\uc740 \ub2e4\ub978 \uc8fc\uc694 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc774 \ub354 **\uc644\ud654\uc801(\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub0b4\ub9ac\uac70\ub098 \ub0ae\uac8c \ub450\ub824\ub294 \ucabd)**\uc778 \uc0c1\ud669\uc5d0\uc11c **\ubbf8\uad6d \ub2ec\ub7ec**\uc5d0 \uc720\ub9ac\ud558\ub2e4. 2025\ub144 \ud558\ubc18\uae30\uc5d0\ub294 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \ud070 \ud3ed \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\ub97c \uc608\uc0c1\ud558\uba74\uc11c \ub2ec\ub7ec\uac00 \uc57d\ud574\uc84c\ub2e4. \uadf8 \uae30\ub300\uac00 \ub418\ub3cc\ub824\uc9c8 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc740 \uc720\ub85c \ub610\ub294 \uc5d4 \uac19\uc740 \ud1b5\ud654 \ub300\ube44 **\ub2ec\ub7ec \ub9e4\uc218(\ub2ec\ub7ec \uac15\uc138\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305)**\ub97c \uace0\ub824\ud560 \uc2dc\uc810\uc784\uc744 \ub73b\ud55c\ub2e4.\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph-->\n<p><b>VT Markets \ub77c\uc774\ube0c \uacc4\uc815\uc744 \ub9cc\ub4e4\uace0 \uc9c0\uae08 \ubc14\ub85c <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/trade-now\/\">\uac70\ub798<\/a>\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uc138\uc694.<\/b><\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u201c\uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uae30\ub300, \ud754\ub4e4\ub9b0\ub2e4.\u201d \ubcf4\uc2a4\ud2f1\uc740 \uc911\ub9bd\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ud604 \uc218\uc900\ubcf4\ub2e4 0.25~0.50%p \ub0ae\uac8c \ubd24\uace0, \uc778\ud50c\ub808 \ubc18\ub4f1 \uc2dc \uc778\uc0c1\ub3c4 \uc2dc\uc0ac. GDP\ub294 2026\ub144 2.4%, 2027\ub144 2.1%. \uc7ac\uc815 \ubd80\uc591\u00b7\uad00\uc138\/\uaddc\uc81c \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc73c\ub85c \ub2ec\ub7ec \uac15\uc138, \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ud5e4\uc9c0\uc640 SOFR \ub9e4\ub3c4 \uc804\ub7b5\uc774 \ubd80\uc0c1. &#8211; vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-38805","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38805","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/62"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=38805"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38805\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=38805"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=38805"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=38805"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}