{"id":38728,"date":"2026-02-20T04:32:58","date_gmt":"2026-02-20T04:32:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/%ed%98%b8%ec%a3%bc%eb%8b%ac%eb%9f%ac-%ec%97%94aud-jpy-%ed%98%b8%ec%a3%bc-%ea%b8%b0%ec%a4%80%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-3-85-%ec%9d%b8%ec%83%81%ec%9c%bc%eb%a1%9c-%ec%9d%bc%eb%b3%b8%ec%9d%98-%ec%a0%95\/"},"modified":"2026-02-20T04:32:58","modified_gmt":"2026-02-20T04:32:58","slug":"%ed%98%b8%ec%a3%bc%eb%8b%ac%eb%9f%ac-%ec%97%94aud-jpy-%ed%98%b8%ec%a3%bc-%ea%b8%b0%ec%a4%80%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-3-85-%ec%9d%b8%ec%83%81%ec%9c%bc%eb%a1%9c-%ec%9d%bc%eb%b3%b8%ec%9d%98-%ec%a0%95","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/%ed%98%b8%ec%a3%bc%eb%8b%ac%eb%9f%ac-%ec%97%94aud-jpy-%ed%98%b8%ec%a3%bc-%ea%b8%b0%ec%a4%80%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-3-85-%ec%9d%b8%ec%83%81%ec%9c%bc%eb%a1%9c-%ec%9d%bc%eb%b3%b8%ec%9d%98-%ec%a0%95\/","title":{"rendered":"\ud638\uc8fc\ub2ec\ub7ec\/\uc5d4(AUD\/JPY), \ud638\uc8fc \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac 3.85% \uc778\uc0c1\uc73c\ub85c \uc77c\ubcf8\uc758 \uc815\ucc45 \uae30\uc870\uc640\uc758 \uad34\ub9ac \ud655\ub300 \uc18d 109.00\uc120 \ubd80\uadfc\uc5d0\uc11c \ub4f1\ub77d"},"content":{"rendered":"AUD\/JPY\ub294 \ud638\uc8fc\uc640 \uc77c\ubcf8\uc758 **\ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45(\uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac\u00b7\uc720\ub3d9\uc131 \uc6b4\uc601 \ubc29\ud5a5)** \uacbd\ub85c\uac00 \uc11c\ub85c \ub2ec\ub77c\uc9c0\uba74\uc11c 109.00 \ubd80\uadfc\uc5d0\uc11c \uac70\ub798\ub410\ub2e4. \ud638\uc8fc\uc758 1\uc6d4 **\uc2e4\uc5c5\ub960(\uc77c\uc744 \ucc3e\ub294 \uc0ac\ub78c \uc911 \uc77c\uc790\ub9ac\uac00 \uc5c6\ub294 \ube44\uc728)** \uc740 4.1%\ub85c, \uc608\uc0c1\uce58 4.2%\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub0ae\uc558\ub2e4. **\uace0\uc6a9 \uc99d\uac00(\uc77c\uc790\ub9ac \uc21c\uc99d)** \ub294 17.8K(1\ub9cc 7,800\uac1c)\ub85c \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc608\uc0c1 20K(2\ub9cc \uac1c)\uc5d0 \ubabb \ubbf8\ucce4\ub2e4.\n\nRBA(\ud638\uc8fc\uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589)\ub294 \uc774\ub2ec \ucd08 **\ud604\uae08\uae08\ub9ac(cash rate: \ud638\uc8fc \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc758 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac)** \ub97c **25bp(\ubca0\uc774\uc2dc\uc2a4\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8: 1bp=0.01%p, \uc989 25bp=0.25%p)** \uc62c\ub824 3.85%\ub85c \ub9cc\ub4e4\uc5c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 2\ub144 \ub118\uac8c \uc5c6\ub358 \uccab \uc778\uc0c1\uc774\ub2e4. \ud68c\uc758\ub85d\uc740 **\ub370\uc774\ud130 \uc758\uc874(data-dependent: \uc9c0\ud45c\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \ub2e4\uc74c \uacb0\uc815\uc744 \ubc14\uafc8)** \uae30\uc870\ub97c \uc720\uc9c0\ud588\uace0, \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc774 2025\ub144 \ud558\ubc18\uae30\uc5d0 \ub2e4\uc2dc \uc624\ub97c \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \uc9c0\uc801\ud588\ub2e4.\n\n<h3>Policy Divergence Driving Audjpy<\/h3>\nBoJ(\uc77c\ubcf8\uc740\ud589)\ub294 1\uc6d4\uc5d0 **\uc815\ucc45\uae08\ub9ac(\uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc774 \uc815\ud558\ub294 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac)** \ub97c 0.75%\ub85c \uc720\uc9c0\ud588\ub2e4. \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 4\uc6d4\uae4c\uc9c0 BoJ\uac00 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc62c\ub9b4 \ud655\ub960\uc744 \uc57d 80%\ub85c \ubcf4\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c \uae08\uc694\uc77c\uc5d0\ub294 \ubbf8\uad6d **4\ubd84\uae30 GDP(\uad6d\ub0b4\ucd1d\uc0dd\uc0b0: \ud55c \ub098\ub77c\uc758 \uc0dd\uc0b0 \uaddc\ubaa8)** \uc640 **\uadfc\uc6d0 PCE(core PCE: \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc774 \ud070 \uc2dd\ud488\u00b7\uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0\ub97c \ube80 \uac1c\uc778\uc18c\ube44\uc9c0\ucd9c \ubb3c\uac00, \ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 \uc8fc\uc694 \ubb3c\uac00\uc9c0\ud45c)** \ubc1c\ud45c\uac00 \uc608\uc815\ub3fc \uc788\ub2e4.\n\n\uae30\uc220\uc801\uc73c\ub85c\ub294 1\uc6d4 \ucd08 104.72 \ubd80\uadfc\uc5d0\uc11c \uc624\ub978 \ub4a4 50\uc77c **EMA(\uc9c0\uc218\uc774\ub3d9\ud3c9\uade0: \ucd5c\uadfc \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ub354 \ud070 \uac00\uc911\uce58\ub97c \ub454 \ud3c9\uade0\uc120)** 106.60\uacfc 200\uc77c EMA 100.45 \uc704\ub97c \uc720\uc9c0\ud588\ub2e4. 2\uc6d4 \ucd08 110.79\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc62c\ub790\uace0, 2\uc8fc \ub3d9\uc548 \uc57d 109.00~110.00 \ubc94\uc704\uc5d0\uc11c \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc600\ub2e4. **\uc9c0\uc9c0\uc120(support: \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \uc790\uc8fc \uba48\ucd94\ub294 \ud558\ub2e8 \uad6c\uac04)** \uc740 108.00 \ubd80\uadfc\uc774\uba70, 110.79\ub97c **\uc0c1\ud5a5 \ub3cc\ud30c(break: \uc800\ud56d\uc744 \ub118\uc5b4\uc11c \uc62c\ub77c\uac10)** \ud558\uba74 112.00 \ucabd\uc744 \ubcfc \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.\n\nAUD(\ud638\uc8fc\ub2ec\ub7ec)\uc5d0 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \uc8fc\ub294 \uc694\uc778\uc73c\ub85c\ub294 \uae08\ub9ac, \ucca0\uad11\uc11d, \uc911\uad6d \uacbd\uae30, \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158, \uc131\uc7a5, **\ubb34\uc5ed\uc218\uc9c0(trade balance: \uc218\ucd9c-\uc218\uc785 \ucc28\uc774)**, **\uc704\ud5d8\uc120\ud638(risk appetite: \ud22c\uc790\uc790\ub4e4\uc774 \uc704\ud5d8\uc790\uc0b0\uc744 \uc120\ud638\ud558\ub294 \uc815\ub3c4)** \ub4f1\uc774 \uc788\ub2e4. 2021\ub144 \uc790\ub8cc \uae30\uc900 \ucca0\uad11\uc11d \uc218\ucd9c\uc740 \uc5f0 1,180\uc5b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc600\ub2e4.\n\n\ud638\uc8fc\ub2ec\ub7ec\/\uc5d4\uc5d0\uc11c \ud575\uc2ec \uc694\uc778\uc740 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589 \uc815\ucc45 \ucc28\uc774\uac00 \ucee4\uc9c0\ub294 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4. \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 RBA\uac00 **\ub9e4\ud30c\uc801(hawkish: \ubb3c\uac00\ub97c \uc7a1\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1\uc5d0 \uc801\uadf9\uc801\uc778)** \uae30\uc870\ub97c \uc774\uc5b4\uac08 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf8\ub2e4. \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc774 2025\ub144 \ud558\ubc18\uae30\uc5d0 \ub2e4\uc2dc \uac15\ud574\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \ud310\ub2e8\uc5d0 \ub530\ub978 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774 \uc815\ucc45 \ucc28\uc774\ub294 \uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \ub354 \ub192\uc740 \ud638\uc8fc\ub2ec\ub7ec\ub97c \uc5d4\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub354 \ub9e4\ub825\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ub9cc\ub4e0\ub2e4.\n\n<h3>Key Risks And Trade Conditions<\/h3>\n\uc774\ub7f0 \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801 RBA \uc804\ub9dd\uc740 \ud638\uc8fc\uc758 \uac15\ud55c \uacbd\uae30, \ud2b9\ud788 \ube61\ube61\ud55c \uace0\uc6a9\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc73c\ub85c \ub4b7\ubc1b\uce68\ub41c\ub2e4. \ucd5c\uadfc \uc9c0\ud45c\uc5d0\uc11c \uc2e4\uc5c5\ub960\uc774 4.1%\ub85c \uc720\uc9c0\ub3fc, RBA\uac00 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ucd94\uac00\ub85c \uc62c\ub9b4 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uae30\ub300\uac00 \ub0a8\uc544 \uc788\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c \ud638\uc8fc\uc758 \ub300\ud45c \uc218\ucd9c\ud488\uc778 \ucca0\uad11\uc11d \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \uac15\ud558\uba74 \ud1b5\ud654\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ub3c4\uc6c0\uc774 \ub41c\ub2e4.\n\n\ubc18\ub300\ub85c BoJ\ub294 \uc815\ucc45 \uc815\uc0c1\ud654\ub85c \uac00\ub294 \uc18d\ub3c4\uac00 \ub354 \ub290\ub9ac\ub2e4. \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 4\uc6d4 \uc778\uc0c1 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \ub192\uac8c \ubcf4\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc18d\ub3c4\uac00 \ub290\ub9ac\uba74 \ud638\uc8fc\uc640\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac \ucc28\uc774\ub294 \ub2f9\ubd84\uac04 \ud06c\uac8c \uc720\uc9c0\ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \uc77c\ubcf8\uc758 **\uc784\uae08 \uc0c1\uc2b9(wage growth: \uae09\uc5ec\uac00 \uc9c0\uc18d\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc624\ub974\ub294 \ud750\ub984)** \uc774 \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c0\ub294\uc9c0 \ubcfc \ud544\uc694\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774\uac83\uc774 BoJ\uac00 \ub354 \ud655\uc2e4\ud788 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc774\uac8c \ub9cc\ub4dc\ub294 \ub9c8\uc9c0\ub9c9 \uc870\uac74\uc774 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.\n\n\uc911\uad6d \uacbd\uae30\ub294 \ud638\uc8fc\ub2ec\ub7ec\uc5d0 \ub9e4\uc6b0 \uc911\uc694\ud558\ub2e4. \ucd5c\uadfc \uc790\ub8cc\ub294 \ub098\uc058\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc558\uace0, 1\uc6d4 \uc911\uad6d **\uc81c\uc870\uc5c5 PMI(Purchasing Managers\u2019 Index: \uad6c\ub9e4\ub2f4\ub2f9\uc790 \uc124\ubb38\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf8 \uacbd\uae30\uc9c0\uc218, 50 \uc774\uc0c1\uc774\uba74 \ud655\uc7a5)** \uac00 \uc18c\ud3ed \ud655\uc7a5\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc92c\ub2e4. \ud638\uc8fc\uc758 \ucd5c\ub300 \uad50\uc5ed \uc0c1\ub300\uad6d\uc774 \uc548\uc815\ub418\uba74 \ud638\uc8fc \uc218\ucd9c \uc218\uc694\ub97c \uc9c0\uc9c0\ud558\uace0 AUD \uc804\ub9dd\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ub3c4\uc6c0\uc774 \ub41c\ub2e4.\n\n\ub9e4\ub9e4 \uad00\uc810\uc5d0\uc11c AUD\/JPY\uac00 109.00 \ubd80\uadfc\uc5d0\uc11c **\ud6a1\ubcf4(consolidation: \ud070 \ubc29\ud5a5 \uc5c6\uc774 \uc881\uc740 \ubc94\uc704\uc5d0\uc11c \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc784)** \ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc5b4 **\uc635\uc158(options: \ud2b9\uc815 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \uc0ac\uace0\ud314 \uad8c\ub9ac\ub97c \uac70\ub798\ud558\ub294 \uc0c1\ud488)** \uc744 \ud65c\uc6a9\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. 108.00 \uc9c0\uc9c0\uc120 \uc544\ub798 **\ud589\uc0ac\uac00(strike: \uc635\uc158\uc5d0\uc11c \ubbf8\ub9ac \uc815\ud55c \uac70\ub798 \uac00\uaca9)** \ub85c **\ud48b \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc(put spread: \ud48b\uc635\uc158\uc744 \ud568\uaed8 \uc0ac\uace0\ud314\uc544 \uc190\uc775 \ubc94\uc704\ub97c \uc81c\ud55c\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5)** \ub97c \ub9e4\ub3c4\ud558\uac70\ub098 **\ud604\uae08\ub2f4\ubcf4 \ud48b(cash-secured put: \uc8fc\uc2dd\/\ud1b5\ud654\ub97c \uc0b4 \uc218 \uc788\ub3c4\ub85d \ud604\uae08\uc744 \ud655\ubcf4\ud55c \uc0c1\ud0dc\uc5d0\uc11c \ud48b\uc744 \ud30c\ub294 \ubc29\ubc95)** \uc744 \uc4f0\uba74, **\ud504\ub9ac\ubbf8\uc5c4(premium: \uc635\uc158 \ub9e4\ub3c4\uc790\uac00 \ubc1b\ub294 \ub3c8)** \uc744 \ubc1b\uc73c\uba74\uc11c \ud070 \ud558\ub77d\uc774 \uc5c6\ub2e4\ub294 \ucabd\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774 \uc804\ub7b5\uc740 \ud6a1\ubcf4\ud558\uac70\ub098 \ucc9c\ucc9c\ud788 \uc624\ub974\ub294 \ud750\ub984\uc5d0\uc11c \uc720\ub9ac\ud558\ub2e4.\n\n\ub2e4\ub9cc \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubd84\uc704\uae30\ub97c \ubc14\uafc0 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uc678\ubd80 \ucda9\uaca9\ub3c4 \ubd10\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4. \ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 \uadfc\uc6d0 PCE \uac19\uc740 \uc8fc\uc694 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc9c0\ud45c\uac00 **\ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c \uc624\ud504(risk-off: \uc704\ud5d8\uc790\uc0b0\uc744 \ud53c\ud558\uace0 \uc548\uc804\uc790\uc0b0\uc73c\ub85c \uc774\ub3d9\ud558\ub294 \ud750\ub984)** \ub97c \ub9cc\ub4e4 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub7ec\uba74 **\uc548\uc804\uc790\uc0b0(safe-haven: \ubd88\uc548\ud560 \ub54c \uc120\ud638\ub418\ub294 \uc790\uc0b0)** \uc778 \uc5d4 \uc218\uc694\uac00 \ub298\uc5b4, AUD\/JPY\uc5d0\ub294 \ubd80\ub2f4\uc774 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.\n\n<b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">VT Markets \ub77c\uc774\ube0c \uacc4\uc815 \ub9cc\ub4e4\uae30<\/a>\u00a0\ubc0f\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login\">\uc9c0\uae08 \uac70\ub798 \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uae30<\/a>. <\/b>\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph-->\n<p><b>VT Markets \ub77c\uc774\ube0c \uacc4\uc815\uc744 \ub9cc\ub4e4\uace0 \uc9c0\uae08 \ubc14\ub85c <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/trade-now\/\">\uac70\ub798<\/a>\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uc138\uc694.<\/b><\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u201c\uae08\ub9ac \uaca9\ucc28\uac00 \ub9cc\ub4e0 109\uc5d4 \ubc15\uc2a4\uad8c!\u201d AUD\/JPY\ub294 RBA\uc758 \ub9e4\ud30c \uae30\uc870\uc640 BOJ\uc758 \uc644\ub9cc\ud55c \uc815\uc0c1\ud654\ub85c \uac15\uc138. 108 \uc9c0\uc9c0, 110.79 \ub3cc\ud30c \uc2dc 112 \uac00\ub2a5. \ubbf8\uad6d PCE \ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c \uc720\uc758. &#8211; vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-38728","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38728","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/62"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=38728"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38728\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=38728"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=38728"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=38728"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}