{"id":38713,"date":"2026-02-20T01:31:27","date_gmt":"2026-02-20T01:31:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/uob-%ec%9d%b4%ec%bd%94%eb%85%b8%eb%af%b8%ec%8a%a4%ed%8a%b8%eb%93%a4%ec%9d%80-%ed%83%9c%ea%b5%ad%ec%9d%80%ed%96%89%ec%9d%b4-1%ec%9d%bc-%ed%99%98%eb%a7%a4%ec%a1%b0%ea%b1%b4%eb%b6%80%ec%b1%84%ea%b6%8c\/"},"modified":"2026-02-20T01:31:27","modified_gmt":"2026-02-20T01:31:27","slug":"uob-%ec%9d%b4%ec%bd%94%eb%85%b8%eb%af%b8%ec%8a%a4%ed%8a%b8%eb%93%a4%ec%9d%80-%ed%83%9c%ea%b5%ad%ec%9d%80%ed%96%89%ec%9d%b4-1%ec%9d%bc-%ed%99%98%eb%a7%a4%ec%a1%b0%ea%b1%b4%eb%b6%80%ec%b1%84%ea%b6%8c","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/uob-%ec%9d%b4%ec%bd%94%eb%85%b8%eb%af%b8%ec%8a%a4%ed%8a%b8%eb%93%a4%ec%9d%80-%ed%83%9c%ea%b5%ad%ec%9d%80%ed%96%89%ec%9d%b4-1%ec%9d%bc-%ed%99%98%eb%a7%a4%ec%a1%b0%ea%b1%b4%eb%b6%80%ec%b1%84%ea%b6%8c\/","title":{"rendered":"UOB \uc774\ucf54\ub178\ubbf8\uc2a4\ud2b8\ub4e4\uc740 \ud0dc\uad6d\uc740\ud589\uc774 1\uc77c \ud658\ub9e4\uc870\uac74\ubd80\ucc44\uad8c(\ub808\ud3ec) \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c 25bp \uc778\ud558\ud574 1.00%\ub85c \ub0ae\ucd9c \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc804\ub9dd\u2026 \ucd5c\uc885 \uae08\ub9ac(\ud130\ubbf8\ub110 \ub808\uc774\ud2b8) \uc608\uc0c1"},"content":{"rendered":"UOB \uc774\ucf54\ub178\ubbf8\uc2a4\ud2b8 \uc5d4\ub9ac\ucf54 \ud0c0\ub204\uc704\ub4dc\uc790\uc790(Enrico Tanuwidjaja)\uc640 \uc0ac\ud303 \ud0c8\ub81d\uc0bf\uc57c(Sathit Talaengsatya)\ub294 \ud0dc\uad6d \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589(Bank of Thailand)\uc774 2026\ub144 2\uc6d4 25\uc77c \ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45\uc704\uc6d0\ud68c(Monetary Policy Committee, \uae08\ub9ac \ub4f1 \ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45\uc744 \uacb0\uc815\ud558\ub294 \ud68c\uc758)\uc5d0\uc11c 1\uc77c \ud658\ub9e4\uc870\uac74\ubd80\ucc44\uad8c(1-day repurchase rate, \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc774 \ub2e8\uae30 \uc790\uae08\uc870\ub2ec \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc720\ub3c4\ud558\ub294 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac \uc131\uaca9\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac)\uc744 1.25%\uc5d0\uc11c 25bp(\ubca0\uc774\uc2dc\uc2a4\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8, \uae08\ub9ac 0.01%p \ub2e8\uc704) \uc778\ud558\ud574 1.00%\ub85c \ub0ae\ucd9c \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774\ub4e4\uc740 1.00%\ub97c \uc774\ubc88 \uae08\ub9ac \uc0ac\uc774\ud074(\uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1\u00b7\uc778\ud558\uac00 \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c0\ub294 \ud55c \ud750\ub984)\uc5d0\uc11c\uc758 \ucd5c\uc885 \uae08\ub9ac(terminal rate, \ub354 \uc774\uc0c1 \ub0b4\ub9ac\uac70\ub098 \uc62c\ub9ac\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc744 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud070 \ub9c8\uc9c0\ub9c9 \uc218\uc900)\ub85c \ubcf8\ub2e4.\n\n\uc774\ub4e4\uc758 \ud3c9\uac00\ub294 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc758 \uc720\uc5f0\ud55c \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \ubaa9\ud45c\uc81c(flexible inflation targeting, \ubb3c\uac00 \ubaa9\ud45c\ub97c \uae30\ubcf8\uc73c\ub85c \ud558\ub418 \uacbd\uae30\uc640 \uae08\uc735 \uc548\uc815\uc744 \ud568\uaed8 \uace0\ub824\ud558\ub294 \uc6b4\uc601 \ubc29\uc2dd) \ubaa9\ud45c, \uc989 \uc131\uc7a5\u00b7\ubb3c\uac00\u00b7\uae08\uc735 \uc548\uc815\uacfc \uc5f0\uacb0\ub41c\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c \uc7a0\uc7ac\uc131\uc7a5\ub960(\uacbd\uc81c\uac00 \ubb34\ub9ac \uc5c6\uc774 \ub0bc \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uc131\uc7a5 \uc18d\ub3c4)\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub0ae\uc740 \uc131\uc7a5 \uc804\ub9dd\uacfc \ub454\ud55c \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158(\ubb3c\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9)\uc774 \uc81c\uc2dc\ub41c \uc810\ub3c4 \uc5b8\uae09\ud55c\ub2e4.\n\n

Neutral Rate Framework<\/h3>\n\uc774\ub4e4\uc740 2026\ub144 \uacbd\uae30 \uad6d\uba74\uc5d0\uc11c\uc758 \uba85\ubaa9 \uc911\ub9bd\uae08\ub9ac(cyclical nominal neutral rate, \uacbd\uc81c\ub97c \uacfc\uc5f4\uc2dc\ud0a4\uc9c0\ub3c4 \uce68\uccb4\uc2dc\ud0a4\uc9c0\ub3c4 \uc54a\ub294 \u2018\uc911\uac04\u2019 \uc218\uc900\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac) \ubc94\uc704\ub97c 0.75%~1.25%\ub85c \ubcf4\uace0, \uc911\uac04\uac12\uc744 1.0%\ub85c \uc81c\uc2dc\ud588\ub2e4. \uadf8 \uadfc\uac70\ub85c \ub0ae\uc544\uc9c4 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uae30\ub300(depressed inflation expectations, \uc55e\uc73c\ub85c \ubb3c\uac00\uac00 \uc624\ub97c \uac83\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uc608\uc0c1\uc774 \uc57d\ud574\uc9c4 \uc0c1\ud0dc)\uc640 \ud53c\uc154 \ubc29\uc815\uc2dd(Fisher equation, \uba85\ubaa9\uae08\ub9ac = \uc2e4\uc9c8\uae08\ub9ac + \uae30\ub300\uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uad00\uacc4\ub97c \uc124\uba85\ud558\ub294 \uae30\ubcf8 \uacf5\uc2dd)\uc744 \ub4e0\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7f0 \uae30\uc900\uc5d0\uc11c 1.00%\ub85c \ub0b4\ub9ac\uba74 \uc2e4\uc9c8 \uae30\uc900(real terms, \ubb3c\uac00\ub97c \uace0\ub824\ud55c \uae30\uc900)\uc73c\ub85c\ub294 \uc911\ub9bd\uc5d0 \uac00\uae5d\uac70\ub098 \uc57d\uac04 \uacbd\uae30\ubd80\uc591\uc801(accommodative, \uacbd\uae30\ub97c \ub3d5\ub294 \ubc29\ud5a5)\uc77c \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf8\ub2e4.\n\n\ubd84\uc11d\uc740 \uc218\uc694(demand, \uc18c\ube44\u00b7\ud22c\uc790 \ub4f1 \uc9c0\ucd9c)\ub97c \ub5a0\ubc1b\uce58\uace0 \ubd80\ucc44-\ub514\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc704\ud5d8(debt-deflation risks, \ubb3c\uac00 \ud558\ub77d\/\uc800\ubb3c\uac00\ub85c \uc2e4\uc9c8 \ubd80\ucc44 \ubd80\ub2f4\uc774 \ucee4\uc838 \uacbd\uae30 \uc545\uc21c\ud658\uc774 \uc0dd\uae38 \uc704\ud5d8)\uc744 \uc904\uc774\ub418, \u201c\uc9c0\ub098\uce58\uac8c \ub0ae\uc740\u201d \uc815\ucc45 \uae30\uc870\ub97c \ud53c\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc744 \uc5b8\uae09\ud55c\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c \uc218\uc775\ub960 \ucad3\uae30(search-for-yield, \ub0ae\uc740 \uae08\ub9ac \ub54c\ubb38\uc5d0 \ub354 \ub192\uc740 \uc218\uc775\uc744 \ucc3e\uc544 \uc704\ud5d8 \uc790\uc0b0\uc73c\ub85c \ubab0\ub9ac\ub294 \ud604\uc0c1)\uc640 \uc7a5\uae30\uc801\uc778 \uae08\uc735 \uc548\uc815 \uc6b0\ub824\ub3c4 \ud568\uaed8 \uac70\ub860\ud55c\ub2e4.\n\n\ub610\ud55c \ud574\ub2f9 \uae30\uc0ac\uc5d0\ub294 \uc778\uacf5\uc9c0\ub2a5(Artificial Intelligence, AI: \uc0ac\ub78c\uc758 \ud310\ub2e8\u00b7\ubd84\uc11d\uc744 \uc77c\ubd80 \uc790\ub3d9\uc73c\ub85c \uc218\ud589\ud558\ub294 \ucef4\ud4e8\ud130 \uae30\uc220) \ub3c4\uad6c\uc758 \ub3c4\uc6c0\uc744 \ubc1b\uc544 \uc791\uc131\ud588\uace0 \ud3b8\uc9d1\uc790\uac00 \uac80\ud1a0\ud588\ub2e4\uace0 \uc801\ud600 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, FXStreet \uc778\uc0ac\uc774\ud2b8 \ud300(FXStreet Insights Team, \ud574\ub2f9 \ub9e4\uccb4\uc758 \ubd84\uc11d\/\ub9ac\uc11c\uce58 \ud300) \uba85\uc758\ub85c \ub418\uc5b4 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ud55c\ub2e4.\n\n

Trading And Hedging Approaches<\/h3>\n\uc774\ub7f0 \uacbd\uc81c \ud658\uacbd\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ub2e8\uae30 \uae08\ub9ac \ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488(short-term interest rate derivatives, \ub2e8\uae30 \uae08\ub9ac\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc774\ub294 \uacc4\uc57d)\uc774 \ub9e4\ub825\uc801\uc77c \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc55e\uc73c\ub85c \ubcc0\ub3d9\uae08\ub9ac(floating rates, \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uae08\ub9ac\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \uc815\uae30\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ubc14\ub00c\ub294 \uae08\ub9ac)\uac00 \ub0ae\uc544\uc9c0\ub294 \ucabd\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud558\ub294 \uc2a4\uc651 \uacc4\uc57d(swap contracts, \uace0\uc815\uae08\ub9ac\uc640 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc11c\ub85c \uad50\ud658\ud558\ub294 \uacc4\uc57d)\uc5d0 \uac00\uce58\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf8\ub2e4. \uc774\ubc88 25bp \uc778\ud558\uac00 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074\uc758 \ucd5c\uc885 \uae08\ub9ac\ub77c\ub294 \uc8fc\uc7a5\uc774\ub77c\uba74, \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158(\ud22c\uc790 \ubc29\ud5a5\uacfc \uaddc\ubaa8)\uc740 2\uc6d4 25\uc77c \ud68c\uc758 \uc9c1\ud6c4\uc758 \ub2e8\uae30 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc784\uc5d0 \ub9de\ucd94\ub294 \uac83\uc774 \ud575\uc2ec\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uc758\ubbf8\uac00 \ub41c\ub2e4.\n\n\ud658\uc728 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354\ub77c\uba74 3\uc6d4 \ub610\ub294 4\uc6d4 \ub9cc\uae30\uc758 USD\/THB \ucf5c\uc635\uc158(call options, \uc815\ud574\uc9c4 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \uc0b4 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uad8c\ub9ac)\uc744 \ub9e4\uc218\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\uc774 \ube44\uad50\uc801 \ub2e8\uc21c\ud558\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \ubc14\ud2b8\ud654 \uc57d\uc138 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc5d0 \ucc38\uc5ec\ud558\uba74\uc11c\ub3c4 \ucd5c\ub300 \uc190\uc2e4\uc744 \uc81c\ud55c(capping risk, \uc190\uc2e4 \uc0c1\ud55c\uc744 \uace0\uc815)\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774\ubc88 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc784\uc740 \ub2e8\uc21c\ud788 \uc131\uc7a5 \ub454\ud654 \ub54c\ubb38\ub9cc\uc774 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c, \uc800\ubb3c\uac00 \ud658\uacbd\uc5d0\uc11c \ubd80\ucc44-\ub514\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc704\ud5d8\uc744 \uad00\ub9ac\ud558\ub824\ub294 \ubaa9\uc801\ub3c4 \ud3ec\ud568\ub41c\ub2e4\ub294 \uc124\uba85\uc774\ub2e4.\n\n\uacfc\uac70\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ud0dc\uad6d \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc740 \uacbd\uae30\ub97c \uc9c0\uc9c0\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \uc120\uc81c\uc801\uc73c\ub85c(preemptively, \ubb38\uc81c\uac00 \ucee4\uc9c0\uae30 \uc804\uc5d0 \ubbf8\ub9ac) \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc778 \uc0ac\ub840\uac00 \uc788\uc5c8\ub294\ub370, 2020\ub144 \uacbd\uae30 \ub454\ud654 \ub54c \uae30\ub85d\uc801 \uc800\uc810\uae4c\uc9c0 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ud06c\uac8c \ub0b4\ub9b0 \uac83\uc774 \uadf8 \uc608\ub2e4. \uc774\ubc88\uc5d0\ub294 1.00%\ub85c\uc758 \uc778\ud558\uac00 \ub300\uaddc\ubaa8 \uc644\ud654 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074(deep easing cycle, \uc5f0\uc18d\uc801\uc774\uace0 \ud070 \ud3ed\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558)\uc758 \uc2dc\uc791\uc774\ub77c\uae30\ubcf4\ub2e4 \u201c\ubcf4\ud5d8(insurance, \uc704\ud5d8\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud55c \uc548\uc804\uc7a5\uce58)\u201d \uc131\uaca9\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf8\ub2e4. \ub530\ub77c\uc11c \ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488 \ud65c\uc6a9\uc740 \uc804\uc220\uc801(tactical, \ub2e8\uae30\u00b7\uc0c1\ud669 \uc911\uc2ec)\uc774\uc5b4\uc57c \ud558\uace0, \ubc1c\ud45c \uc2dc\uc810 \uc804\ud6c4\ub85c \ud0c0\uc774\ubc0d\uc744 \ub9de\ucd9c \ud544\uc694\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 1.00%\ub97c \uc0c8\ub85c\uc6b4 \ud558\ud55c(new floor, \ub354 \ub0b4\ub824\uac00\uae30 \uc5b4\ub835\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf4\ub294 \uae30\uc900\uc120)\uc73c\ub85c \ube60\ub974\uac8c \ubc18\uc601(\uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ubc18\uc601, price in)\ud560 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud06c\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc774\ub2e4.\n\n\n

VT Markets \ub77c\uc774\ube0c \uacc4\uc815\uc744 \ub9cc\ub4e4\uace0 \uc9c0\uae08 \ubc14\ub85c \uac70\ub798<\/a>\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uc138\uc694.<\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

2\uc6d4 25\uc77c \ud0dc\uad6d, \uae08\ub9ac 1.00%\ub85c \uac04\ub2e4? UOB\ub294 BoT\uac00 25bp \uc778\ud558\ud574 1.00%\ub97c \uc774\ubc88 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074 \uc885\ucc29\uc810\uc73c\ub85c \uc81c\uc2dc. \uc800\uc131\uc7a5\u00b7\uc800\ubb3c\uac00 \uc18d \ubc14\ud2b8 \uc57d\uc138\uc640 \ud30c\uc0dd\u00b7\ud5e4\uc9c0 \uae30\ud68c \ubd80\uac01. – vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-38713","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38713","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/62"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=38713"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38713\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=38713"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=38713"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=38713"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}