{"id":38705,"date":"2026-02-19T23:31:12","date_gmt":"2026-02-19T23:31:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/%ec%b9%b4%ec%8b%9c%ec%b9%b4%eb%a6%ac%eb%8a%94-%ec%95%94%ed%98%b8%ed%99%94%ed%8f%90%ea%b0%80-%ec%99%84%ec%a0%84%ed%9e%88-%ec%93%b8%eb%aa%a8%ec%97%86%eb%8b%a4%ea%b3%a0-%eb%a7%90%ed%95%98%eb%a9%b4\/"},"modified":"2026-02-19T23:31:12","modified_gmt":"2026-02-19T23:31:12","slug":"%ec%b9%b4%ec%8b%9c%ec%b9%b4%eb%a6%ac%eb%8a%94-%ec%95%94%ed%98%b8%ed%99%94%ed%8f%90%ea%b0%80-%ec%99%84%ec%a0%84%ed%9e%88-%ec%93%b8%eb%aa%a8%ec%97%86%eb%8b%a4%ea%b3%a0-%eb%a7%90%ed%95%98%eb%a9%b4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/%ec%b9%b4%ec%8b%9c%ec%b9%b4%eb%a6%ac%eb%8a%94-%ec%95%94%ed%98%b8%ed%99%94%ed%8f%90%ea%b0%80-%ec%99%84%ec%a0%84%ed%9e%88-%ec%93%b8%eb%aa%a8%ec%97%86%eb%8b%a4%ea%b3%a0-%eb%a7%90%ed%95%98%eb%a9%b4\/","title":{"rendered":"\uce74\uc2dc\uce74\ub9ac\ub294 \uc554\ud638\ud654\ud3d0\uac00 \uc644\uc804\ud788 \uc4f8\ubaa8\uc5c6\ub2e4\uace0 \ub9d0\ud558\uba74\uc11c\ub3c4, \uace7 \uace0\uc6a9\uc774 \uacac\uc870\ud558\uac8c \uc720\uc9c0\ub418\uace0 AI \uc8fc\ub3c4\uc758 \uc0dd\uc0b0\uc131 \ud5a5\uc0c1\uc774 \ub098\ud0c0\ub0a0 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ud588\ub2e4."},"content":{"rendered":"\ub2d0 \uce74\uc2dc\uce74\ub9ac(Neel Kashkari) \ubbf8\ub2c8\uc560\ud3f4\ub9ac\uc2a4 \uc5f0\ubc29\uc900\ube44\uc740\ud589(\ubbf8\ub2c8\uc560\ud3f4\ub9ac\uc2a4 \uc5f0\uc740, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis) \ucd1d\uc7ac\ub294 \ubbf8\uad6d \ub178\ub3d9\uc2dc\uc7a5(\uc0ac\ub78c\ub4e4\uc774 \uc77c\uc790\ub9ac\ub97c \uc5bb\uace0 \uc784\uae08\uc774 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc774\ub294 \uc804\uccb4 \uc2dc\uc7a5)\uc774 \ud0c4\ud0c4\ud55c \uc0c1\ud0dc(\ud68c\ubcf5\ub825\uc774 \uc788\uc74c)\ub97c \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ub9d0\ud588\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub294 \ub178\ub3d9\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uc774\uc804\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub2e4\uc18c \uc57d\ud574\uc9c0\uae34 \ud588\uc9c0\ub9cc \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \u201c\uad1c\ucc2e\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc5d0\uc11c \uaf64 \uc88b\uc740 \uc218\uc900\u201d\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \ud588\uace0, \uae30\uc5c5\ub4e4\uc774 \uc778\ub825 \ucda9\uc6d0(\ucc44\uc6a9\uacfc \uc778\uc6d0 \uc720\uc9c0)\uacfc \uad00\ub828\ud574 \uc870\uc2ec\uc2a4\ub7ec\uc6b4 \ubcf4\uace0\ub97c \ud558\ub294 \uc810\uc744 \ubcf4\uba74 \ub178\ub3d9\uc2dc\uc7a5 \ud798\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \uacbd\uacc4\uac00 \ud544\uc694\ud558\ub2e4\uace0 \ub367\ubd99\uc600\ub2e4.\n\n\uce74\uc2dc\uce74\ub9ac\ub294 \ucf00\ube48 \ud574\uc2ef(Kevin Hassett)\uc774 \uc5f0\uc900(Fed, \ubbf8\uad6d \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589) \uc9c1\uc6d0\ub4e4\uc758 \uc5f0\uad6c\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \uc5b8\uae09\ud55c \uac83\uc740 \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \ub3c5\ub9bd\uc131(\uc815\uce58\uad8c \ub4f1 \uc678\ubd80 \uc555\ub825\uacfc \ubb34\uad00\ud558\uac8c \uc815\ucc45\uc744 \uacb0\uc815\ud558\ub294 \uc131\uc9c8)\uc744 \ud6fc\uc190\ud558\ub824\ub294 \u201c\ub610 \ud558\ub098\uc758 \ub2e8\uacc4\u201d\ub77c\uace0 \ub9d0\ud588\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub294 \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \ub370\uc774\ud130(\ud1b5\uacc4 \uc218\uce58)\uc640 \ubd84\uc11d\uc5d0 \uadfc\uac70\ud574 \uacb0\uc815\uc744 \ub0b4\ub9ac\ub294 \ub370 \uc9d1\uc911\ud560 \uac83\uc774\uba70, \ub2e4\ub978 \u201c\ubc29\ud574 \uc694\uc18c\u201d\ub294 \ud53c\ud558\uaca0\ub2e4\uace0 \ud588\ub2e4.\n\n<h3>AI And Productivity Outlook<\/h3>\n\uadf8\ub294 \ub300\ubd80\ubd84\uc758 \uae30\uc5c5\uc774 AI(\uc778\uacf5\uc9c0\ub2a5, \uc0ac\ub78c\ucc98\ub7fc \uae00\u00b7\uc774\ubbf8\uc9c0\u00b7\ubd84\uc11d \ub4f1\uc744 \ud574\ub0b4\ub294 \ucef4\ud4e8\ud130 \uae30\uc220)\ub97c \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud558\uba74\uc11c \uc774\uc810\uc744 \uc5bb\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ub9d0\ud588\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub294 AI\uac00 \uc55e\uc73c\ub85c 5~10\ub144 \uc0ac\uc774 \uc0dd\uc0b0\uc131(\uac19\uc740 \uc2dc\uac04\uacfc \ube44\uc6a9\uc73c\ub85c \ub354 \ub9ce\uc740 \uc131\uacfc\ub97c \ub0b4\ub294 \ub2a5\ub825)\uc744 \ub192\uc77c \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ud588\ub2e4.\n\n\uadf8\ub294 \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \ub0b4\ubd80\uc801\uc73c\ub85c AI\ub97c \uc4f0\ub294 \ub370\ub294 \uc2e0\uc911\ud558\ub2e4\uace0 \ub9d0\ud588\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub294 AI \uc2dc\uc2a4\ud15c\uc774 \uae30\ubc00 \ub370\uc774\ud130(\uc678\ubd80\uc5d0 \uacf5\uac1c\ub418\uba74 \uc548 \ub418\ub294 \uc815\ubcf4)\uc5d0 \uc811\uadfc\ud558\uc9c0 \ubabb\ud558\ub3c4\ub85d \uac15\ub825\ud55c \uc548\uc804\uc7a5\uce58(\uc811\uadfc \ucc28\ub2e8 \uaddc\uce59\uacfc \uae30\uc220\uc801 \ud1b5\uc81c)\uac00 \ub9c8\ub828\ub3fc \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ud588\ub2e4.\n\n\uce74\uc2dc\uce74\ub9ac\ub294 \uc554\ud638\ud654\ud3d0(crypto, \ube14\ub85d\uccb4\uc778 \uae30\ubc18\uc758 \ub514\uc9c0\ud138 \uc790\uc0b0)\uac00 \u201c\uc644\uc804\ud788 \uc4f8\ubaa8\uc5c6\ub2e4\u201d\uace0 \ub9d0\ud588\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub294 \uc2a4\ud14c\uc774\ube14\ucf54\uc778(stablecoin, \ubcf4\ud1b5 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uac19\uc740 \ubc95\uc815\ud654\ud3d0 \uac00\uce58\uc5d0 \ub9de\ucdb0 \uac00\uaca9 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc744 \uc904\uc774\ub3c4\ub85d \uc124\uacc4\ub41c \uc554\ud638\ud654\ud3d0)\uc774 Venmo(\ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 \uc1a1\uae08 \uc571)\ub098 \ube44\uc2b7\ud55c \uc11c\ube44\uc2a4\uac00 \uc774\ubbf8 \ud558\ub294 \uc77c \uc774\uc0c1\uc73c\ub85c \ubb34\uc5c7\uc744 \ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub294\uc9c0\ub3c4 \ubd84\uba85\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub2e4\uace0 \ud588\ub2e4.\n\n\ud0c4\ud0c4\ud55c \ub178\ub3d9\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uad00\uc810\uc740 2026\ub144\uc5d0 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558(\uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc774 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub0b4\ub9ac\ub294 \uac83)\uac00 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \ud604\uc7ac \uc608\uc0c1\ud558\ub294 \uac83\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc801\uc744 \uc218 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \ub73b\ud55c\ub2e4. 1\uc6d4 \uace0\uc6a9\ubcf4\uace0\uc11c\uc5d0\uc11c \ube44\ub18d\uc5c5 \ubd80\ubb38 \uace0\uc6a9(nonfarm payrolls, \ub18d\uc5c5\uc744 \uc81c\uc678\ud55c \uc2e0\uaddc \uc77c\uc790\ub9ac \uc218)\uc774 21\ub9cc5\ucc9c \uba85 \uc99d\uac00\ud574 \uacac\uc870\ud55c \ud750\ub984\uc744 \ubcf4\uc778 \uc810\ub3c4 \ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45(\uae08\ub9ac \uac19\uc740 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589 \uc815\ucc45)\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc774\ub7f0 \uc2e0\uc911\ud55c \ud0dc\ub3c4\ub97c \ub4b7\ubc1b\uce68\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7f0 \ud658\uacbd\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc5ec\ub984 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud558\ub294 \ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488(\uac00\uaca9\uc774 \ub2e4\ub978 \uc790\uc0b0\uc5d0 \uc5f0\ub3d9\ub418\ub294 \uacc4\uc57d), \uc608\ub97c \ub4e4\uc5b4 \uc77c\ubd80 \uc5f0\ubc29\uae30\uae08\uae08\ub9ac \uc120\ubb3c(Fed Funds futures, \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uc815\ucc45\uae08\ub9ac \uc218\uc900\uc5d0 \uac78 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uc120\ubb3c \uacc4\uc57d)\uc774 \uc810\uc810 \ub354 \uc704\ud5d8\ud574 \ubcf4\uc778\ub2e4.\n\n<h3>Market Implications And Positioning<\/h3>\n\uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 2025\ub144 \ub0b4\ub0b4 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \u2018\ube44\ub458\uae30\ud30c \uc804\ud658\u2019(dovish pivot, \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \ucabd\uc73c\ub85c \uc815\ucc45 \uae30\uc870\uac00 \ubc14\ub00c\ub294 \uac83)\uc744 \ubc18\ubcf5\ud574\uc11c \ubc18\uc601\ud588\ub2e4\uac00, \uc784\uae08 \uc0c1\uc2b9 \uc218\uce58\uac00 \uacc4\uc18d \ub192\uac8c \ub098\uc624\uba70 \uc2e4\ub9dd\ud588\ub358 \uc77c\uc744 \uae30\uc5b5\ud55c\ub2e4. \ud3c9\uade0 \uc2dc\uac04\ub2f9 \uc784\uae08(average hourly earnings, \ub178\ub3d9\uc790\ub4e4\uc758 \ud3c9\uade0 \uc2dc\uae09)\uc774 \uc9c0\ub09c\ub2ec \ub2e4\uc2dc 0.4% \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud55c \uac83\uc744 \ubcf4\uba74 \uc774\ub7f0 \ud750\ub984\uc774 \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c0\ub294 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf4\uc778\ub2e4. \ub530\ub77c\uc11c \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uba87 \uc8fc \ub3d9\uc548 \uad6d\ucc44 ETF(Treasury bond ETF, \ubbf8\uad6d \uad6d\ucc44\uc5d0 \ud22c\uc790\ud558\ub294 \uc0c1\uc7a5\uc9c0\uc218\ud380\ub4dc)\uc5d0\uc11c \uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \ub192\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud574 \uc218\uc775\uc744 \uc5bb\ub294 \uc635\uc158 \uc804\ub7b5(option strategies, \ud2b9\uc815 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \uc0ac\uace0\ud314 \uad8c\ub9ac\ub97c \uc0ac\uace0\ud30c\ub294 \ubc29\ubc95)\uc774 \uc2e0\uc911\ud55c \uc120\ud0dd\uc774 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.\n\n\ud55c\ud3b8 AI\uac00 \ubbf8\ub798 \uc0dd\uc0b0\uc131\uc744 \ub192\uc77c \uac83\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \ub099\uad00\uc740 \uc9c0\uae08 \uae30\uc220\uc8fc(tech sector) \ud22c\uc790 \uc2ec\ub9ac\ub97c \uc9c1\uc811 \uc790\uadf9\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. 2025\ub144 4\ubd84\uae30 \uc2e4\uc801 \uc2dc\uc98c(earnings season, \uae30\uc5c5\ub4e4\uc774 \ubd84\uae30 \uc2e4\uc801\uc744 \ubc1c\ud45c\ud558\ub294 \uae30\uac04)\uc774 \uac15\ud588\ub358 \uc774\ud6c4 \ub098\uc2a4\ub2e5 100(Nasdaq 100, \ub300\ud615 \uae30\uc220\uc8fc \uc911\uc2ec \uc9c0\uc218)\uc740 \uc5f0\ucd08 \uc774\ud6c4 8% \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\uace0, AI \uad00\ub828 \uc8fc\uc2dd\uc758 \ub0b4\uc7ac \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131(implied volatility, \uc635\uc158 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ubc18\uc601\ub41c \u2018\uc55e\uc73c\ub85c\uc758 \ubcc0\ub3d9 \ud3ed \uc608\uc0c1\u2019)\uc740 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \ub192\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \ud070 \uac00\uaca9 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc774 \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud558\uba70, \ucf5c\ub77c(collar, \ud558\ub77d \uc704\ud5d8\uc744 \uc904\uc774\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \ud48b\uc744 \uc0ac\uace0 \ucf5c\uc744 \ud30c\ub294 \uc635\uc158 \uc870\ud569)\ub098 \uc2a4\ud2b8\ub798\ub4e4(straddle, \uac19\uc740 \ub9cc\uae30\u00b7\uac19\uc740 \ud589\uc0ac\uac00\uc758 \ucf5c\uacfc \ud48b\uc744 \ud568\uaed8 \uc0ac\uc11c \ud070 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5) \uac19\uc740 \ubc29\uc2dd\uc774 \ub300\ud45c \uae30\uc220\uc8fc\uc5d0 \ub9e4\ub825\uc801\uc77c \uc218 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \ub73b\ud55c\ub2e4.\n\n\uc554\ud638\ud654\ud3d0\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc774\ub7f0 \uac15\ud55c \ubd80\uc815\uc801 \ud3c9\uac00\ub294 2025\ub144 \ub9d0\uc5d0 \ucee4\uc84c\ub358 \uaddc\uc81c \uc555\ub825(\uc815\ubd80\u00b7\uac10\ub3c5\uae30\uad00\uc758 \uaddc\uce59 \uac15\ud654)\uc744 \ub354 \ud0a4\uc6b0\uba70 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc5f4\uae30\ub97c \uc2dd\ud614\ub2e4. \ube44\ud2b8\ucf54\uc778(Bitcoin)\uc774 \ucd5c\uadfc \uace0\uc810 \ub300\ube44 \uac70\uc758 15% \ud558\ub77d\ud588\uace0 8\ub9cc5\ucc9c \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc9c0\uc9c0\uc120(support level, \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \ub354 \ub5a8\uc5b4\uc9c0\uae30 \uc5b4\ub835\ub2e4\uace0 \uc5ec\uaca8\uc9c0\ub294 \uad6c\uac04)\uc744 \uc9c0\ud0a4\uae30 \uc5b4\ub824\uc6cc\ud558\ub294 \uc0c1\ud669\uc5d0\uc11c, \uc815\ucc45 \ub2f9\uad6d\uc790\ub4e4\uc758 \uc774\ub7f0 \ubd84\uc704\uae30\ub294 \ucd94\uac00 \ud558\ub77d\uc744 \ucd09\ubc1c\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \uc0c1\uc7a5\ub41c \uc554\ud638\ud654\ud3d0 \ucc44\uad74\uc5c5\uccb4(crypto miners, \ucef4\ud4e8\ud130\ub85c \ube14\ub85d\uccb4\uc778 \uac70\ub798\ub97c \uac80\uc99d\ud574 \ubcf4\uc0c1\uc744 \ubc1b\ub294 \uc0ac\uc5c5)\ub098 \uac70\ub798\uc18c(exchanges, \uc554\ud638\ud654\ud3d0\ub97c \uc0ac\uace0\ud30c\ub294 \ud50c\ub7ab\ud3fc) \uc8fc\uc2dd\uc744 \ub300\uc0c1\uc73c\ub85c \ud55c \ud48b\uc635\uc158(put options, \uac00\uaca9 \ud558\ub77d \uc2dc \uc774\uc775\uc774 \ub098\ub294 \uc635\uc158) \ub9e4\uc218\uac00 \uc774\ub7f0 \uc57d\uc138\uc5d0\uc11c \uc218\uc775\uc744 \ub178\ub9ac\ub294 \ubc29\ubc95\uc774 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf8\ub2e4.\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph-->\n<p><b>VT Markets \ub77c\uc774\ube0c \uacc4\uc815\uc744 \ub9cc\ub4e4\uace0 \uc9c0\uae08 \ubc14\ub85c <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/trade-now\/\">\uac70\ub798<\/a>\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uc138\uc694.<\/b><\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u201cKashkari \ubc1c\uc5b8\uc774 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc744 \ud754\ub4e0\ub2e4.\u201d \ubbf8\uad6d \uace0\uc6a9\uc740 \ub454\ud654\uc5d0\ub3c4 \uacac\uc870, \uc5f0\uc900 \ub3c5\ub9bd\uc131 \ud6fc\uc190 \uc2dc\ub3c4 \ube44\ud310. AI \uc0dd\uc0b0\uc131 \uae30\ub300, \ub0b4\ubd80 \ud65c\uc6a9\uc740 \uc2e0\uc911. \uc554\ud638\ud654\ud3d0 \ubb34\uc6a9\ub860 \uc18d \uae08\ub9ac\uc778\ud558\u00b7\ud14c\ud06c \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\u00b7\uc57d\uc138 \ubca0\ud305 \ubd80\uac01. &#8211; vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-38705","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38705","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/62"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=38705"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38705\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=38705"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=38705"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=38705"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}