{"id":38611,"date":"2026-02-19T00:31:08","date_gmt":"2026-02-19T00:31:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/%ec%bd%94%eb%a9%94%eb%a5%b4%ec%b8%a0%eb%b0%a9%ed%81%ac%ec%9d%98-%ed%83%80%ed%83%80-%ea%b3%a0%ec%84%b8%eb%8a%94-3%ec%9b%94-%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-%ec%9d%b8%ed%95%98-%ec%8b%a0%ed%98%b8%ec%97%90%eb%8f%84\/"},"modified":"2026-02-19T00:31:08","modified_gmt":"2026-02-19T00:31:08","slug":"%ec%bd%94%eb%a9%94%eb%a5%b4%ec%b8%a0%eb%b0%a9%ed%81%ac%ec%9d%98-%ed%83%80%ed%83%80-%ea%b3%a0%ec%84%b8%eb%8a%94-3%ec%9b%94-%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-%ec%9d%b8%ed%95%98-%ec%8b%a0%ed%98%b8%ec%97%90%eb%8f%84","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/%ec%bd%94%eb%a9%94%eb%a5%b4%ec%b8%a0%eb%b0%a9%ed%81%ac%ec%9d%98-%ed%83%80%ed%83%80-%ea%b3%a0%ec%84%b8%eb%8a%94-3%ec%9b%94-%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-%ec%9d%b8%ed%95%98-%ec%8b%a0%ed%98%b8%ec%97%90%eb%8f%84\/","title":{"rendered":"\ucf54\uba54\ub974\uce20\ubc29\ud06c\uc758 \ud0c0\ud0c0 \uace0\uc138\ub294 3\uc6d4 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uc2e0\ud638\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ubd88\uad6c\ud558\uace0 \ud3f4\ub780\ub4dc \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 25bp \ubbf8\ub9cc\uc758 \uc644\ud654\ub97c \ubc18\uc601\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \uc988\uc6cc\ud2f0\ud654\uac00 \ubd80\uc9c4\ud558\ub2e4\uace0 \ubc1d\ud614\ub2e4."},"content":{"rendered":"\ud3f4\ub780\ub4dc **\uc120\ub3c4\uae08\ub9ac(Forward rates: \ubbf8\ub798\uc758 \ud2b9\uc815 \uc2dc\uc810\uc5d0 \uc801\uc6a9\ub420 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ub418\ub294 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \ubbf8\ub9ac \ubc18\uc601\ud55c \uac12)**\ub294 \ud5a5\ud6c4 3~6\uac1c\uc6d4 \ub3d9\uc548 \uc608\uc0c1\ub418\ub294 **\uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uaddc\ubaa8**\ub97c 25bp(\ubca0\uc774\uc2dc\uc2a4\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8: **0.01%p**, \ub530\ub77c\uc11c **25bp=0.25%p**) \ubbf8\ub9cc\uc73c\ub85c \ub0ae\ucdc4\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. 2\uc6d4 \ucd08\uc5d0\ub294 25bp\ub97c \ub118\uc5c8\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7f0 \ubcc0\ud654\ub294 2\uc6d4 \ud3f4\ub780\ub4dc\uad6d\ub9bd\uc740\ud589(NBP: \ud3f4\ub780\ub4dc \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589) \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac \ud68c\uc758 \uc774\ud6c4 \ub098\ud0c0\ub0ac\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n\ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45\uc704\uc6d0\ud68c(MPC: \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc5d0\uc11c \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc815\ud558\ub294 \uc704\uc6d0\ud68c) \uc704\uc6d0\uc778 \ub8e8\ub4dc\ube44\ud06c \ucf54\ud14c\uce20\ud0a4, \uac00\ube0c\ub9ac\uc5d8\ub77c \ub9c8\uc2ac\ub85c\ud504\uc2a4\uce74, \ud504\uc170\ubbf8\uc2a4\uc640\ud504 \ub9ac\ud2b8\ube44\ub2c8\uc6b0\ud06c, \ud5e8\ub9ac\ud06c \ube0c\ub178\ub85c\ud504\uc2a4\ud0a4 \ub4f1\uc740 \ub2e4\uc74c \ud68c\uc758\uc5d0\uc11c 25bp \uc778\ud558 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ub192\ub2e4\uace0 \ub9d0\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub4e4\uc740 **\uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc804\ub9dd(\ubb3c\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\uc758 \uc55e\uc73c\ub85c\uc758 \ubc29\ud5a5)**\uc774 \uc88b\uc544\uc84c\ub2e4\uace0 \uc124\uba85\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n

3\uc6d4 \uc774\ud6c4 \uc815\ucc45 \uacbd\ub85c<\/h3>\n3\uc6d4 \uc774\ud6c4 \uae08\ub9ac \uc815\ucc45\uc758 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc744 \ub450\uace0 \ub17c\uc7c1\uc774 \ucee4\uc84c\uace0, **\ucd5c\uc885\uae08\ub9ac(terminal rate: \uc778\ud558\/\uc778\uc0c1 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074\uc774 \ub05d\ub09c \ub4a4 \ub3c4\ub2ec\ud558\ub294 \ub9c8\uc9c0\ub9c9 \uc218\uc900)**\uac00 3.25%\uac00 \ub420 \uac83\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \ub9d0\uc740 \uc904\uc5c8\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc77c\ubd80 \uc704\uc6d0\uc740 25bp\ub97c \ub531 \ud55c \ubc88\ub9cc \ub0b4\ub9ac\ub294 \ubc29\uc548\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud588\uace0, \uc774\ub294 \ucd5c\uc885\uae08\ub9ac 3.75%\ub97c \ub73b\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n\uae00\ub77c\ud540\uc2a4\ud0a4 \ucd1d\uc7ac\ub294 \uacfc\uac70\uc5d0 \ucd5c\uc885\uae08\ub9ac 3.50%\ub97c \uc5b8\uae09\ud588\uc9c0\ub9cc, \ub2e4\ub978 \uc704\uc6d0\ub4e4\uc740 \ub354 \uc2e0\uc911\ud55c \uacb0\uacfc\ub97c \ub9d0\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ucf54\uba54\ub974\uce20\ubc29\ud06c\ub294 \ucd5c\uc885\uae08\ub9ac\uac00 3.50%\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub0ae\uc744 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubd05\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n\uadf8\ub7f0 \uad00\uc810\uc774\ub77c\uba74, **\uc990\ub85c\ud2f0(zloty: \ud3f4\ub780\ub4dc \ud1b5\ud654 PLN)**\ub294 \uba87 \ub2ec \ub3d9\uc548 CE3 \uacbd\uc7c1 \ud1b5\ud654\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc57d\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. (CE3: **\uc911\ubd80\uc720\ub7fd 3\uac1c\uad6d \ud1b5\ud654 \ubb36\uc74c**, \ubcf4\ud1b5 \ud3f4\ub780\ub4dc\u00b7\uccb4\ucf54\u00b7\ud5dd\uac00\ub9ac\ub97c \ub73b\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.)\n\n\ud604\uc7ac **\uc120\ubb3c\/\ud3ec\uc6cc\ub4dc \uc2dc\uc7a5(\ubbf8\ub798 \ud658\uc728\u00b7\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ubbf8\ub9ac \ubc18\uc601\ud558\ub294 \uc2dc\uc7a5)**\uc740 NBP\uac00 25bp\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc791\uc740 \ud3ed\uc73c\ub85c \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub0b4\ub9b4 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ubc18\uc601\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 \uc5ec\ub7ec MPC \uc704\uc6d0\uc774 3\uc6d4 \uc778\ud558 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ub192\ub2e4\uace0 \ub9d0\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uacfc\ub294 \uc5c7\uac08\ub9bd\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7f0 **\ubd88\uc77c\uce58(\uc2dc\uc7a5 \uac00\uaca9\uacfc \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589 \ubc1c\uc5b8\uc758 \ucc28\uc774)**\ub294 \uae30\ud68c\uac00 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 **\ube44\ub458\uae30\ud30c\uc801(dovish: \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \ub4f1 \uc644\ud654 \uc815\ucc45\uc744 \uc120\ud638\ud558\ub294)** \ubc1c\uc5b8\uc744 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\uac00 \uc784\ubc15\ud588\ub2e4\ub294 \uac15\ud55c \uc2e0\ud638\ub85c \ubd05\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n

\uc990\ub85c\ud2f0 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc154\ub2dd\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc758\ubbf8<\/h3>\n\ucd5c\uadfc \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub294 2026\ub144 1\uc6d4 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc774 3.1%\ub85c \ub0b4\ub824\uac00 2025\ub144 4\ubd84\uae30(10~12\uc6d4)\uc758 3.9%\uc5d0\uc11c \ud06c\uac8c \ub5a8\uc5b4\uc84c\uc74c\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc90d\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc5ec\uae30\uc5d0 2025\ub144 4\ubd84\uae30 **GDP \uc131\uc7a5\ub960(\uacbd\uc81c \uc131\uc7a5 \uc18d\ub3c4)**\uc774 2.2%\ub85c \ub454\ud654\ub418\uba74\uc11c, NBP\ub294 \uacbd\uc81c\ub97c \ub4b7\ubc1b\uce68\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 **\ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45 \uc644\ud654(\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub0b4\ub824 \uacbd\uae30 \ubd80\ub2f4\uc744 \uc904\uc774\ub294 \uac83)**\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791\ud560 \uadfc\uac70\uac00 \ub354 \ubd84\uba85\ud574\uc84c\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7f0 \uc218\uce58\ub294 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \ubc18\uc601\ud55c \uc218\uc900\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc758 \uc644\ud654\uc801 \ud0dc\ub3c4\uac00 \ub354 \uc124\ub4dd\ub825 \uc788\uc5b4 \ubcf4\uc774\uac8c \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n\uc774 \uc804\ub9dd\uc744 \ubcf4\uba74, \ud3f4\ub780\ub4dc \uc990\ub85c\ud2f0\ub294 \ud55c\ub3d9\uc548 \uc57d\uc138\uac00 \ub098\ud0c0\ub0a0 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubd05\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 NBP\uac00 3\uc6d4\ubfd0 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c \ucd5c\uc885\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c 3.50% \uc544\ub798\ub85c \ub354 \ub0ae\ucd94\ub824\ub294 \uc758\uc9c0\ub97c \uacfc\uc18c\ud3c9\uac00\ud558\ub294 \ub4ef\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc990\ub85c\ud2f0 \uc57d\uc138\ub97c \uc608\uc0c1\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\uc5d0 \uc720\ub9ac\ud55c \ud658\uacbd\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n**\ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488(derivatives: \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \ud658\uc728\u00b7\uae08\ub9ac \uac19\uc740 \uae30\ucd08\uc790\uc0b0\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc774\ub294 \uacc4\uc57d)** \uac70\ub798\uc790\ub77c\uba74, \uc644\ud654 \uc18d\ub3c4\uac00 \ub354 \ub290\ub9b4 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ub418\ub294 CE3 \ub2e4\ub978 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\ub4e4\uacfc \ube44\uad50\ud574 PLN \uc57d\uc138\uc5d0 \ub9de\ucd98 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc774 \uac00\ub2a5\ud558\ub2e4\ub294 \ub73b\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \uccb4\ucf54 \ucf54\ub8e8\ub098 \ub300\ube44 \uc990\ub85c\ud2f0 \uac19\uc740 \ud1b5\ud654\uc30d, \uc608\ub97c \ub4e4\uc5b4 **CZK\/PLN(\uccb4\ucf54 \ucf54\ub8e8\ub098\/\ud3f4\ub780\ub4dc \uc990\ub85c\ud2f0 \ud658\uc728)**\uc5d0\uc11c \ucf54\ub8e8\ub098 \uac15\uc138(\uc989, CZK\/PLN \uc0c1\uc2b9)\ub97c \ub178\ub9ac\ub294 **\ub871 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158(long position: \uac00\uaca9 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud558\ub294 \ub9e4\uc218 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158)**\uc5d0 \uae30\ud68c\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubd05\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c **\uc635\uc158(options: \ubbf8\ub798\uc5d0 \ubbf8\ub9ac \uc815\ud55c \uac00\uaca9\uc73c\ub85c \uc0ac\uace0\ud314 \uad8c\ub9ac)** \uc804\ub7b5 \uc911\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 **EUR\/PLN \uc0c1\uc2b9(\uc720\ub85c \ub300\ube44 \uc990\ub85c\ud2f0 \uc57d\uc138)**\uc5d0\uc11c \uc774\uc775\uc744 \ub178\ub9ac\ub294 **\ucf5c \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc(call spread: \ud589\uc0ac\uac00\uac00 \ub2e4\ub978 \ucf5c\uc635\uc158\uc744 \ud568\uaed8 \ub9e4\uc218\u00b7\ub9e4\ub3c4\ud574 \ube44\uc6a9\uacfc \uc218\uc775 \ubc94\uc704\ub97c \uc870\uc808\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5)** \ub9e4\uc218\uac00 \uc55e\uc73c\ub85c \uba87 \uc8fc\uac04 \ub9e4\ub825\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf4\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n\n

VT Markets \ub77c\uc774\ube0c \uacc4\uc815\uc744 \ub9cc\ub4e4\uace0 \uc9c0\uae08 \ubc14\ub85c \uac70\ub798<\/a>\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uc138\uc694.<\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\uc2dc\uc7a5 \uae30\ub300\ubcf4\ub2e4 NBP\uac00 \ub354 \ube68\ub9ac, \ub354 \uae4a\uac8c \ub0b4\ub9b4\uae4c? \ud3f4\ub780\ub4dc \uae08\ub9ac\uc120\ubb3c\uc740 3~6\uac1c\uc6d4 \uc778\ud558\ud3ed\uc744 25bp \ubbf8\ub9cc\uc73c\ub85c \ucd95\uc18c\ud588\uc9c0\ub9cc, MPC\ub294 3\uc6d4 25bp \uc778\ud558 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud558\uba70 \uc990\ub85c\ud2f0 \uc57d\uc138\u00b7\ucd94\uac00 \uc778\ud558 \uc5ec\uc9c0\ub97c \ud0a4\uc6b4\ub2e4. – vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-38611","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38611","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/62"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=38611"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38611\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=38611"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=38611"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=38611"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}