{"id":38602,"date":"2026-02-18T22:30:46","date_gmt":"2026-02-18T22:30:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/%eb%9d%bc%eb%b3%b4%eb%b1%85%ed%81%ac%ec%9d%98-%ed%95%84%eb%a6%bd-%eb%a7%88%eb%a0%88%ec%9d%b4%eb%8a%94-%ea%b3%a0%ec%9a%a9%ec%9d%b4-%ea%b0%95%ed%99%94%eb%90%98%ea%b3%a0-%ec%9d%b8%ed%94%8c%eb%a0%88\/"},"modified":"2026-02-18T22:30:46","modified_gmt":"2026-02-18T22:30:46","slug":"%eb%9d%bc%eb%b3%b4%eb%b1%85%ed%81%ac%ec%9d%98-%ed%95%84%eb%a6%bd-%eb%a7%88%eb%a0%88%ec%9d%b4%eb%8a%94-%ea%b3%a0%ec%9a%a9%ec%9d%b4-%ea%b0%95%ed%99%94%eb%90%98%ea%b3%a0-%ec%9d%b8%ed%94%8c%eb%a0%88","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/%eb%9d%bc%eb%b3%b4%eb%b1%85%ed%81%ac%ec%9d%98-%ed%95%84%eb%a6%bd-%eb%a7%88%eb%a0%88%ec%9d%b4%eb%8a%94-%ea%b3%a0%ec%9a%a9%ec%9d%b4-%ea%b0%95%ed%99%94%eb%90%98%ea%b3%a0-%ec%9d%b8%ed%94%8c%eb%a0%88\/","title":{"rendered":"\ub77c\ubcf4\ubc45\ud06c\uc758 \ud544\ub9bd \ub9c8\ub808\uc774\ub294 \uace0\uc6a9\uc774 \uac15\ud654\ub418\uace0 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc774 \ub454\ud654\ub418\ub294 \uac00\uc6b4\ub370, 6\uc6d4\ubd80\ud130 \uc2dc\uc791\ud574 2026\ub144\uc5d0 \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 25bp\uc529 \uc138 \ucc28\ub840 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\ub97c \ub2e8\ud589\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ud55c\ub2e4."},"content":{"rendered":"\ub77c\ubcf4\ubc45\ud06c(Rabobank)\uc758 \ubbf8\uad6d \uc218\uc11d \uc804\ub7b5\uac00 \ud544\ub9bd \ub9c8\ub808\uc774(Philip Marey)\ub294 \ubbf8\uad6d \uc5f0\ubc29\uacf5\uac1c\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc704\uc6d0\ud68c(FOMC, \ubbf8 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc778 \uc5f0\ubc29\uc900\ube44\uc81c\ub3c4(Fed)\uac00 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uacb0\uc815\ud558\ub294 \ud68c\uc758)\uac00 2026\ub144\uc5d0 25bp(\ubca0\uc774\uc2dc\uc2a4\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8, \uae08\ub9ac 0.01%\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8)\uc529 3\ucc28\ub840 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub0b4\ub9b4 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ud55c\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub294 \uc774\uc81c \uc644\ud654(\uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558) \uc0ac\uc774\ud074\uc774 3\uc6d4\uc774 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c 6\uc6d4\uc5d0 \uc2dc\uc791\ub420 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf8\ub2e4.\n\n\ub354 \uac15\ud55c \ubbf8\uad6d \ub178\ub3d9\uc2dc\uc7a5(\uace0\uc6a9) \uc9c0\ud45c \ub54c\ubb38\uc5d0 \uc774\ub978 \uc2dc\uc810\uc758 \uc778\ud558 \ud544\uc694\uc131\uc774 \uc904\uc5c8\ub2e4\uace0 \ud55c\ub2e4. \ubc18\uba74 \ub0ae\uc544\uc9c4 CPI(\uc18c\ube44\uc790\ubb3c\uac00\uc9c0\uc218, \uc18c\ube44\uc790\uac00 \uc0ac\ub294 \ubb3c\uac00) \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158(\ubb3c\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960)\uc740 2026\ub144 \ud6c4\ubc18\uc758 \uc778\ud558\ub97c \ub4b7\ubc1b\uce68\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf4\uc778\ub2e4.\n\n

Rabobank Rate Cut Path<\/h3>\n\ub77c\ubcf4\ubc45\ud06c\ub294 6\uc6d4\uacfc 9\uc6d4\uc5d0 \uc778\ud558\uac00 \uc788\uace0, 10\uc6d4\uc5d0 \uc138 \ubc88\uc9f8 \uc778\ud558\ub97c \ucd94\uac00\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ud55c\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c 9\uc6d4\uacfc 12\uc6d4 \ud68c\uc758\uc5d0\ub294 SEP(\uacbd\uc81c\uc804\ub9dd\uc694\uc57d, \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \uc131\uc7a5\u00b7\ubb3c\uac00\u00b7\uae08\ub9ac \uc804\ub9dd\uc744 \uc815\ub9ac\ud574 \uacf5\uac1c\ud558\ub294 \uc790\ub8cc) \uc5c5\ub370\uc774\ud2b8\uac00 \ud3ec\ud568\ub41c\ub2e4\uace0 \uc5b8\uae09\ud55c\ub2e4.\n\n\ud604\uc7ac \uc5f0\ubc29\uae30\uae08\uae08\ub9ac(federal funds rate, \uc740\ud589\ub07c\ub9ac \ucd08\ub2e8\uae30\ub85c \ube4c\ub9ac\ub294 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac)\uac00 3.50\u20133.75%\uc774\uba70, \ub77c\ubcf4\ubc45\ud06c\ub294 2026\ub144\uc5d0 \ucd1d 75bp(0.75%\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8) \uc778\ud558\ub97c \uc804\ub9dd\ud55c\ub2e4. \uae08\ub9ac\ub294 \uc911\ub9bd\uae08\ub9ac(neutral rate, \uacbd\uae30\ub97c \uacfc\uc5f4\uc2dc\ud0a4\uc9c0\ub3c4 \uce68\uccb4\uc2dc\ud0a4\uc9c0\ub3c4 \uc54a\ub294\ub2e4\uace0 \uc5ec\uaca8\uc9c0\ub294 \uae08\ub9ac)\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc57d\uac04 \ub0ae\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc5d0\uc11c \ub9c8\uac10\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf8\ub2e4.\n\n\ud574\ub2f9 \uae00\uc740 \uc0c8\ub85c\uc6b4 \uc5f0\uc900 \uc758\uc7a5(Fed Chair, \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \ucd5c\uace0 \ucc45\uc784\uc790)\uc774 \ud55c \ubc88\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub354 \ub9ce\uc740 \uc778\ud558\ub97c \ubc00\uc5b4\ubd99\uc77c \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ub9d0\ud55c\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c \uc81c\ub86c \ud30c\uc6d4(Jerome Powell)\uc774 \uc758\uc7a5\uc73c\ub85c \ub0a8\uc544 \uc788\ub294 \uae30\uac04\uc5d0\ub294 \uc9c0\ud45c\uac00 \ucd94\uac00 \uc778\ud558\ub97c \uc774\ub04c \ub9cc\ud07c \uac15\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc744 \uac83\uc774\ub77c\uace0\ub3c4 \ud55c\ub2e4.\n\n\ub178\ub3d9\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uac15\ud55c \ub9cc\ud07c, \uc774\uc81c \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 3\uc6d4\uc5d0 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc744 \uac83\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \ubd10\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4. 1\uc6d4 \uace0\uc6a9\ubcf4\uace0\uc11c\ub294 \uc2e0\uaddc \uc77c\uc790\ub9ac\uac00 29\ub9cc 5,000\uac1c \ub298\uba70(robust, \ub9e4\uc6b0 \uac15\ud55c \uc99d\uac00) \uc2e4\uc5c5\ub960\uc774 \ub0ae\uc740 3.6%\ub97c \uc720\uc9c0\ud588\uc74c\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc92c\uace0, \uc774\ub294 \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \ub2f9\uc7a5 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc5ec\uc57c \ud560 \uae09\ud55c \uc774\uc720\ub97c \uc904\uc778\ub2e4. \ub530\ub77c\uc11c \uace7\ubc14\ub978 \uc778\ud558\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud588\ub358 \ub2e8\uae30 \ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488(derivatives, \uae30\ucd08\uc790\uc0b0 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \uac00\uce58\uac00 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc774\ub294 \uacc4\uc57d) \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc740 \uc815\ub9ac(\uc5b8\uc640\uc778\ub4dc, \ub418\ub3cc\ub824\uc11c \uccad\uc0b0)\ud560 \ud544\uc694\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4.\n\n

Trading Implications For 2026<\/h3>\n\ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc774 \uc644\ud654\ub418\ub294 \ud750\ub984\uc740 \uc62c\ud574 \ud6c4\ubc18\uc758 \uc778\ud558 \uadfc\uac70\ub97c \ub354 \ud655\uc2e4\ud558\uac8c \ub9cc\ub4e0\ub2e4. \ucd5c\uadfc CPI \ubcf4\uace0\uc11c\uc5d0\uc11c \ud5e4\ub4dc\ub77c\uc778(\uc804\uccb4) \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc774 \uc804\ub144 \ub300\ube44 2.3%\ub85c \ub0b4\ub824\uac00\uba74\uc11c, \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \ub178\ub3d9\uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc548\uc815\uc5d0 \ud655\uc2e0\uc744 \uac16\ub294\ub2e4\uba74 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uc644\ud654\ub85c \uac08 \uae38\uc774 \uc5f4\ub824 \uc788\ub2e4. \ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488 \uc2dc\uc7a5\ub3c4 \uc774\ub97c \ubc18\uc601\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. CME FedWatch Tool(CME\uac00 \uae08\ub9ac\uc120\ubb3c \uac00\uaca9\uc744 \ubc14\ud0d5\uc73c\ub85c \ud68c\uc758\ubcc4 \uae08\ub9ac \ubcc0\ud654 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \uacc4\uc0b0\ud574 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc8fc\ub294 \ub3c4\uad6c)\uc5d0\uc11c 3\uc6d4 \uc778\ud558 \ud655\ub960\uc740 15% \uc544\ub798\ub85c \ub5a8\uc5b4\uc84c\uace0, 6\uc6d4\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc778\ud558\uac00 \uc788\uc744 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc740 70%\ub97c \ub118\uc5c8\ub2e4.\n\n\ud5a5\ud6c4 \uba87 \uc8fc \uad00\uc810\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ub2e8\uae30 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131(\uac00\uaca9\uc774 \ud754\ub4e4\ub9ac\ub294 \uc815\ub3c4)\uc744 \ud314\uace0, \ub354 \uba3c \ub9cc\uae30\uc758 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc744 \uc0ac\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\uc774 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ub41c\ub2e4. 3\uc6d4\uacfc 4\uc6d4\uc5d0 \ub9cc\uae30\uc778 \uae08\ub9ac\uc120\ubb3c \uc635\uc158(options, \uc815\ud574\uc9c4 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \uc0ac\uace0\ud314 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uad8c\ub9ac)\uc740 \ub9e4\ub825\uc774 \ub0ae\uc544\uc84c\uace0, 6\uc6d4\u00b79\uc6d4 FOMC \ud68c\uc758 \uc804\ud6c4\uc758 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc784\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud55c \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc774 \ub354 \ud569\ub9ac\uc801\uc774\ub2e4. \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \ud0c0\uc774\ubc0d \ubcc0\ud654\uc5d0\uc11c \uc774\uc775\uc744 \ub178\ub9ac\uae30 \uc704\ud574 SOFR(\ub2f4\ubcf4\ubd80 \uc775\uc77c \uae08\ub9ac, \ubbf8\uad6d \ub2e8\uae30\uae08\ub9ac \uae30\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \uc4f0\uc774\ub294 \uae08\ub9ac) \uc635\uc158\uc758 \uce98\ub9b0\ub354 \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc(calendar spread, \ub9cc\uae30\uac00 \ub2e4\ub978 \uc635\uc158\uc744 \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 \uc0ac\uace0\ud30c\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5) \uac19\uc740 \uc804\ub7b5\uc744 \ubcf4\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.\n\n\ub610\ud55c \uc5f0\uc900 \ub9ac\ub354\uc2ed \uad50\uccb4\ub3c4 \uace0\ub824\ud574\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4. \ud30c\uc6d4 \uc758\uc7a5\uc758 \uc784\uae30\ub294 5\uc6d4\uc5d0 \ub05d\ub0a0 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ub41c\ub2e4. \uc0c8 \uc758\uc7a5\uc740 \uc790\uc2e0\uc758 \uc815\ucc45 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc744 \uc138\uc6b0\ub824 \ud560 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud06c\uba70, \uc774\ub294 2026\ub144 \ud558\ubc18\uae30\uc5d0 \uc5ec\ub7ec \ucc28\ub840 \uc778\ud558\uac00 \uc788\uc744 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc0dd\uac01\uc744 \ub4b7\ubc1b\uce68\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc989 \uc644\ud654 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074\uc740 \ucde8\uc18c\ub41c \uac83\uc774 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c \ub2a6\ucdb0\uc9c4 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4.\n\n2025\ub144 \ub9d0 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ud750\ub984\uc744 \ub3cc\uc544\ubcf4\uba74, \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ucc98\uc74c \ub098\uc654\uc744 \ub54c \ud070 \uc0c1\uc2b9(rallies, \uac00\uaca9 \uae09\ub4f1)\uc774 \uc788\uc5c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ud6c4 \uac15\ud55c \uacbd\uc81c \uc9c0\ud45c\ub85c \uadf8 \uc5f4\uae30\ub294 \uc904\uc5c8\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \ub0b4\ub824\uac08 \uac83\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uae30\ub300\ub294 \ub0a8\uc544 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774\uc81c \ud575\uc2ec\uc740 \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \uc778\ud558\ub97c \ud560\uc9c0(*if*)\uac00 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c, \uc815\ud655\ud788 \uc5b8\uc81c(*when*) \uc774\ubc88 \uc5ec\ub984\uc5d0 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074\uc774 \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\ub290\ub0d0\uc774\ub2e4.\n\n\n

VT Markets \ub77c\uc774\ube0c \uacc4\uc815\uc744 \ub9cc\ub4e4\uace0 \uc9c0\uae08 \ubc14\ub85c \uac70\ub798<\/a>\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uc138\uc694.<\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\uc2dc\uc7a5 \uae30\ub300\uac00 \u20183\uc6d4 \uc778\ud558\u2019\uc5d0\uc11c \u20186\uc6d4 \uc2dc\uc791\u2019\uc73c\ub85c \uc774\ub3d9! \ub77c\ubcf4\ubc45\ud06c\ub294 2026\ub144 FOMC\uac00 25bp\uc529 3\ud68c(6\u00b79\u00b710\uc6d4) \uc778\ud558\ud574 \ucd1d 75bp \ub0ae\ucd9c \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc804\ub9dd, \uac15\ud55c \uace0\uc6a9\u00b7\uc644\ub9cc\ud55c CPI\uac00 \ubc30\uacbd. – vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-38602","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38602","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/62"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=38602"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38602\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=38602"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=38602"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=38602"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}