{"id":38525,"date":"2026-02-18T03:30:52","date_gmt":"2026-02-18T03:30:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/td%ec%a6%9d%ea%b6%8c%ec%9d%80-2025%eb%85%84-4%eb%b6%84%ea%b8%b0-%eb%af%b8%ea%b5%ad-gdp-%ec%84%b1%ec%9e%a5%eb%a5%a0%ec%9d%84-2-3%eb%a1%9c-%ec%a0%84%eb%a7%9d%ec%86%8c%eb%b9%84%eb%8a%94\/"},"modified":"2026-02-18T03:30:52","modified_gmt":"2026-02-18T03:30:52","slug":"td%ec%a6%9d%ea%b6%8c%ec%9d%80-2025%eb%85%84-4%eb%b6%84%ea%b8%b0-%eb%af%b8%ea%b5%ad-gdp-%ec%84%b1%ec%9e%a5%eb%a5%a0%ec%9d%84-2-3%eb%a1%9c-%ec%a0%84%eb%a7%9d%ec%86%8c%eb%b9%84%eb%8a%94","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/td%ec%a6%9d%ea%b6%8c%ec%9d%80-2025%eb%85%84-4%eb%b6%84%ea%b8%b0-%eb%af%b8%ea%b5%ad-gdp-%ec%84%b1%ec%9e%a5%eb%a5%a0%ec%9d%84-2-3%eb%a1%9c-%ec%a0%84%eb%a7%9d%ec%86%8c%eb%b9%84%eb%8a%94\/","title":{"rendered":"TD\uc99d\uad8c\uc740 2025\ub144 4\ubd84\uae30 \ubbf8\uad6d GDP \uc131\uc7a5\ub960\uc744 2.3%\ub85c \uc804\ub9dd\u2026\uc18c\ube44\ub294 \ub454\ud654\ud558\uace0 \uc9c0\ucd9c\uc740 \uac10\uc18c\ud558\uba70 \uc218\ucd9c\uc774 \uc131\uc7a5\uc5d0 \ubd80\ub2f4\uc744 \uc900\ub2e4"},"content":{"rendered":"TD Securities\ub294 \ub450 \ubd84\uae30 \uc5f0\uc18d \ub354 \uac15\ud55c \uc131\uc7a5 \uc774\ud6c4, 2025\ub144 4\ubd84\uae30 \ubbf8\uad6d GDP \uc131\uc7a5\ub960\uc744 \uc804\uae30 \ub300\ube44 \uc5f0\uc728(\ubd84\uae30 \uc131\uc7a5\ub960\uc744 1\ub144 \uae30\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \ud658\uc0b0) 2.3%\ub85c \uc804\ub9dd\ud588\ub2e4. \uc131\uc7a5 \ub454\ud654\uc758 \uc6d0\uc778\uc73c\ub85c\ub294 \uc18c\ube44\uc790 \uc9c0\ucd9c \ub454\ud654, \uc5f0\ubc29\uc815\ubd80 \uc9c0\ucd9c \uac10\uc18c, \uc21c\uc218\ucd9c(\uc218\ucd9c\uc5d0\uc11c \uc218\uc785\uc744 \ube80 \uac12) \uc57d\ud654\ub97c \ub4e4\uc5c8\ub2e4.\n\nAI(\uc778\uacf5\uc9c0\ub2a5) \uad00\ub828 \uc9c0\ucd9c\uc774 \ube44\uc8fc\uac70\uc6a9 \uace0\uc815\ud22c\uc790(\uae30\uc5c5\uc774 \uacf5\uc7a5\u00b7\uc7a5\ube44\u00b7\uc18c\ud504\ud2b8\uc6e8\uc5b4 \ub4f1\uc5d0 \ud558\ub294 \ud22c\uc790)\ub97c \uacc4\uc18d \ub5a0\ubc1b\uce60 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ud588\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c \ud68c\uc0ac\ub294 \uae08\uc694\uc77c GDP \ubc1c\ud45c\uc5d0 \uc55e\uc11c, 12\uc6d4 \ub0b4\uad6c\uc7ac(\uc624\ub798 \uc4f0\ub294 \uc81c\ud488) \uc8fc\ubb38, \uc7ac\uace0(\ud314\uae30 \uc804 \ubcf4\uc720 \uc911\uc778 \uc0c1\ud488), \ubb34\uc5ed(\uc218\ucd9c\u00b7\uc218\uc785) \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub97c \ud655\uc778\ud55c \ub4a4 4\ubd84\uae30 2.3% \uc804\ub9dd\uc744 \uc7ac\uac80\ud1a0\ud560 \uacc4\ud68d\uc774\ub2e4.\n\n

Key Macro Watchpoints<\/h3>\n\uac19\uc740 \uc8fc\uc5d0 12\uc6d4 PCE \ubb3c\uac00\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubd24\ub2e4. PCE \ubb3c\uac00(Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, \uac1c\uc778\uc18c\ube44\uc9c0\ucd9c \ubb3c\uac00\uc9c0\uc218)\ub294 \ubbf8\uad6d \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589(Fed)\uc774 \uc911\uc694\ud558\uac8c \ubcf4\ub294 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc9c0\ud45c\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c 2025\ub144 \ub9d0\uc5d0\ub294 \uc0dd\uc0b0 \uc99d\uac00\uc728(\uacbd\uc81c\uac00 \ucee4\uc9c0\ub294 \uc18d\ub3c4)\uc774 \uc7a0\uc7ac\uc131\uc7a5\ub960(\uacbd\uc81c\uac00 \ubb34\ub9ac \uc5c6\uc774 \ub0bc \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uc7a5\uae30 \ud3c9\uade0 \uc131\uc7a5\ub960) \ucabd\uc73c\ub85c \ub2e4\uc2dc \ub0b4\ub824\uac08 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc804\ub9dd\ud588\ub2e4. \uadf8 \uc774\uc720\ub85c\ub294 \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 \ud589\uc815\ubd80\uc758 \ubb34\uc5ed\uc815\ucc45 \ucda9\uaca9(\uad00\uc138\u00b7\uaddc\uc81c \ub4f1 \uc815\ucc45 \ubcc0\ud654\ub85c \uc0dd\uae30\ub294 \uc601\ud5a5)\uacfc, \ub178\ub3d9\uc2dc\uc7a5(\uace0\uc6a9\u00b7\uc2e4\uc5c5 \ub4f1 \uc77c\uc790\ub9ac \uc0c1\ud669)\uc774 \uc57d\ud574\uc9c0\uba74\uc11c 2025\ub144\uc5d0\ub294 Fed(\ubbf8\uad6d \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589)\uac00 \ub35c \ube61\ube61\ud55c \ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45(\uae08\ub9ac\u00b7\uc720\ub3d9\uc131 \uc815\ucc45)\uc744 \ud3bc \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \ub4e4\uc5c8\ub2e4.\n\n\ub354 \uc55e\uc744 \ubcf4\uba74, 2026\ub144 GDP \uc131\uc7a5\ub960\ub3c4 2025\ub144\uacfc \ube44\uc2b7\ud55c 2.3%(4\ubd84\uae30\/4\ubd84\uae30, 4\ubd84\uae30 \uae30\uc900 \uc804\ub144 \ub3d9\uae30 \ub300\ube44) \uc815\ub3c4\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ud588\ub2e4. 2026\ub144 4\ubd84\uae30 \uc2e4\uc5c5\ub960\uc740 4.2%\ub85c \uc804\ub9dd\ud588\uc73c\uba70, 2026\ub144 \ub9d0\uae4c\uc9c0 \ub178\ub3d9\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uacc4\uc18d \uc548\uc815(\uae09\uaca9\ud55c \uc545\ud654\ub098 \uacfc\uc5f4 \uc5c6\uc774 \uc720\uc9c0)\ub420 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubd24\ub2e4.\n\nTD Securities\ub294 \uc55e\uc73c\ub85c 1\ub144 \uc548\uc5d0 \ubbf8\uad6d\uc774 \uacbd\uae30\uce68\uccb4(\uacbd\uc81c\ud65c\ub3d9\uc774 \uc804\ubc18\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc904\uc5b4\ub4dc\ub294 \uad6d\uba74)\uc5d0 \ube60\uc9c8 \ud655\ub960\uc744 25%\ub85c \uc81c\uc2dc\ud588\ub2e4.\n\n\uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \uc774\ubbf8 \uc608\uc0c1\ud588\ub358 \uacbd\uae30 \ub454\ud654\ub97c \ubcf4\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. 2025\ub144 4\ubd84\uae30 GDP \uc131\uc7a5\ub960 \uc18d\ubcf4\uce58\uac00 2.1%\ub85c \ub098\uc640, \uc791\ub144\uc758 \ub354 \uac15\ud55c \uc131\uc7a5 \uc18d\ub3c4\uc5d0\uc11c \ub454\ud654\ub410\uc74c\uc744 \ud655\uc778\ud574\uc92c\ub2e4. \uacbd\uae30\uce68\uccb4 \ud655\ub960 25%\uac00 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \ub0a8\uc544 \uc788\uace0, \ud070 \ud3ed\uc758 \ubb34\uc5ed\uc815\ucc45 \ubcc0\ud654\uac00 \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc744 \ud0a4\uc6b0\ub294\ub370\ub3c4 \ub0b4\uc7ac\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131(\uc635\uc158 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ubc18\uc601\ub41c, \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uc608\uc0c1\ud558\ub294 \ubcc0\ub3d9 \ud3ed)\uc740 \ub0ae\uc544 \ubcf4\uc778\ub2e4. \ub530\ub77c\uc11c \uc55e\uc73c\ub85c \uba87 \uc8fc \ub3d9\uc548\uc740 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ud655\ub300\uc5d0\uc11c \uc774\uc775\uc774 \ub098\ub294 \uc635\uc158 \uc804\ub7b5, \uc608\ub97c \ub4e4\uc5b4 VIX \ucf5c(\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uc9c0\uc218 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud558\ub294 \ucf5c\uc635\uc158)\uc774\ub098 \uc9c0\uc218 \uc2a4\ud2b8\ub798\ub4e4(\uac19\uc740 \uac00\uaca9\u00b7\ub9cc\uae30\uc758 \ucf5c\uc635\uc158\uacfc \ud48b\uc635\uc158\uc744 \ud568\uaed8 \uc0ac\uc11c \ud070 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc131\uacfc \ubb34\uad00\ud558\uac8c \ud070 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc744 \ub178\ub9ac\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5)\uc744 \ub9e4\uc218\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc774 \ud569\ub9ac\uc801\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \ubcf8\ub2e4.\n\n

Rates Volatility And Policy Risk<\/h3>\nFed\uac00 2025\ub144 \ub0b4\ub0b4 \ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45\uc744 \uc644\ud654(\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub0b4\ub9ac\uac70\ub098 \ub3c8\uc774 \ub3cc\uac8c \ud558\ub294 \ubc29\ud5a5)\ud55c \uac83\uc740 \ub2f9\uc2dc \ub178\ub3d9\uc2dc\uc7a5 \ub454\ud654\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ubc18\uc751\uc774\uc5c8\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 2026\ub144 1\uc6d4 \ucd5c\uc2e0 \uace0\uc6a9\ubcf4\uace0\uc11c\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc2e4\uc5c5\ub960\uc774 3.9%\ub85c \uc720\uc9c0\ub410\uace0, 2025\ub144 12\uc6d4 \ucd5c\uc2e0 PCE \ubb3c\uac00 \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub294 3.1%\ub85c \ub2e4\uc2dc \uc62c\ub77c \ubd80\ub2f4\uc2a4\ub7ec\uc6b4 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc744 \ubcf4\uc600\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 Fed\uac00 \ub2f9\ubd84\uac04 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub3d9\uacb0(\ubc14\uafb8\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc74c)\ud560 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud06c\ub2e4\ub294 \ub73b\uc774\uba70, 2026\ub144 \uc0c1\ubc18\uae30\uc5d0 \ucd94\uac00 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\uac00 \uc5c6\uc744 \uac83\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud558\ub294 \ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488(\uae30\ucd08\uc790\uc0b0\uc5d0\uc11c \ud30c\uc0dd\ub41c \uacc4\uc57d, \uc608: \uc120\ubb3c\u00b7\uc635\uc158)\uc774 \ub9e4\ub825\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf4\uc774\uac8c \ub9cc\ub4e0\ub2e4.\n\n\uc804\ub9dd\uc740 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \ub458\ub85c \uac08\ub9b4 \uc218 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud55c\ub2e4. AI \uad00\ub828 \ud22c\uc790\ub294 \uae30\uc220\uc8fc\ub97c \uac15\ud558\uac8c \ub5a0\ubc1b\uce58\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc804\uccb4 \uacbd\uc81c\ub294 \uc2dd\ub294 \ud750\ub984\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7f0 \uad34\ub9ac\ub294 \uc9c0\ub09c \uc2e4\uc801 \uc2dc\uc98c(\uae30\uc5c5\ub4e4\uc774 \ubd84\uae30 \uc2e4\uc801\uc744 \ubc1c\ud45c\ud558\ub294 \uae30\uac04)\uc5d0\uc11c \ub69c\ub837\ud588\ub2e4. \ubc18\ub3c4\uccb4 \uae30\uc5c5\uc740 \uc88b\uc740 \uc131\uacfc\ub97c \ub0c8\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc18c\ube44\uc790 \ub300\uc0c1 \uae30\uc5c5 \ub2e4\uc218\ub294 \uc804\ub9dd\uc744 \ub0ae\ucdc4\ub2e4. \uc774 \ud750\ub984\uc744 \uc635\uc158\uc73c\ub85c \uac70\ub798\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\ubc95\ub3c4 \uace0\ub824\ud560 \ub9cc\ud558\ub2e4. \uc608\ub97c \ub4e4\uc5b4, broad market index(\ub300\ud615\u00b7\uc804\ubc18 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc9c0\uc218)\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ucf5c \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc \ub9e4\ub3c4(\ub354 \ub0ae\uc740 \ud589\uc0ac\uac00 \ucf5c\uc744 \ud314\uace0 \ub354 \ub192\uc740 \ud589\uc0ac\uac00 \ucf5c\uc744 \uc0ac\uc11c, \uc81c\ud55c\ub41c \ubc94\uc704\uc5d0\uc11c \ud558\ub77d \ub610\ub294 \ud6a1\ubcf4\uc5d0 \uc720\ub9ac\ud55c \uc804\ub7b5)\ub97c \ud558\uace0, \ud2b9\uc815 \uae30\uc220 \uc5c5\uc885 ETF(\uc5ec\ub7ec \uc885\ubaa9\uc744 \ubb36\uc5b4 \uac70\ub798\ud558\ub294 \uc0c1\uc7a5\uc9c0\uc218\ud380\ub4dc)\ub294 \ub9e4\uc218(\ub871 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158, \uac00\uaca9 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305)\ub85c \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\uc2dd\uc774\ub2e4.\n\n2026\ub144 \uc0c1\ubc18\uae30\uc5d0\ub294 \ub354 \ud070 \uc138\uae08 \ud658\uae09(\uc5f0\ub9d0\uc815\uc0b0 \ub4f1\uc73c\ub85c \ub3cc\ub824\ubc1b\ub294 \ub3c8)\uc774 \uc18c\ube44\uc790 \uc9c0\ucd9c\uc744 \uc7a0\uc2dc \ub04c\uc5b4\uc62c\ub9b4 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ub41c\ub2e4. 2020\ub144\uacfc 2021\ub144\uc758 \ubd80\uc591 \ud6a8\uacfc\ub97c \ubcf4\uba74, \uc774\ub7f0 \uc790\uadf9\uc740 \uac15\ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc \uc624\ub798\uac00\uc9c0\ub294 \uc54a\ub294\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc18c\ube44\uc7ac \uc911 \uc120\ud0dd\uc18c\ube44\uc7ac(\uacbd\uae30 \uc0c1\ud669\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \uc9c0\ucd9c\uc774 \uc27d\uac8c \uc904\uac70\ub098 \ub298 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \ud488\ubaa9) \uc885\ubaa9\uc5d0\uc11c \ub2e8\uae30 \ub9e4\ub9e4 \uae30\ud68c\ub97c \ub9cc\ub4e4 \uc218 \uc788\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc5ec\ub984\ucbe4 \ub2e4\uc2dc \uc57d\ud55c \ud750\ub984\uc73c\ub85c \ub3cc\uc544\uac08 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud574 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158(\ubcf4\uc720\ud55c \ud22c\uc790 \ubc29\ud5a5\uacfc \uaddc\ubaa8)\uc744 \uc870\uc815\ud560 \uc900\ube44\uac00 \ud544\uc694\ud558\ub2e4.\n\n\n

VT Markets \ub77c\uc774\ube0c \uacc4\uc815\uc744 \ub9cc\ub4e4\uace0 \uc9c0\uae08 \ubc14\ub85c \uac70\ub798<\/a>\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uc138\uc694.<\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\uc131\uc7a5 \ub454\ud654 \uc18d \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uae30\ud68c: TD\ub294 2025\ub144 4\ubd84\uae30 \ubbf8\uad6d GDP 2.3% \uc804\ub9dd, \uc18c\ube44\u00b7\uc815\ubd80\uc9c0\ucd9c\u00b7\uc21c\uc218\ucd9c \uc57d\uc138 \uc9c0\ubaa9. AI\ud22c\uc790 \ubc84\ud300\ubaa9, PCE \uc0c1\uc2b9\u00b7\uc815\ucc45 \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131 \uc18d \uce68\uccb4\ud655\ub960 25%. – vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-38525","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38525","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/62"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=38525"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38525\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=38525"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=38525"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=38525"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}