{"id":38484,"date":"2026-02-17T16:32:31","date_gmt":"2026-02-17T16:32:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/1%ec%9b%94%ec%97%90-%eb%af%b8%ea%b5%ad-adp-4%ec%a3%bc-%ed%8f%89%ea%b7%a0-%ea%b3%a0%ec%9a%a9-%eb%b3%80%eb%8f%99%ec%9d%80-%ec%9d%b4%ec%a0%84-6-5%ec%b2%9c-%eb%aa%85%ec%97%90%ec%84%9c-10-3%ec%b2%9c\/"},"modified":"2026-02-17T16:32:31","modified_gmt":"2026-02-17T16:32:31","slug":"1%ec%9b%94%ec%97%90-%eb%af%b8%ea%b5%ad-adp-4%ec%a3%bc-%ed%8f%89%ea%b7%a0-%ea%b3%a0%ec%9a%a9-%eb%b3%80%eb%8f%99%ec%9d%80-%ec%9d%b4%ec%a0%84-6-5%ec%b2%9c-%eb%aa%85%ec%97%90%ec%84%9c-10-3%ec%b2%9c","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/1%ec%9b%94%ec%97%90-%eb%af%b8%ea%b5%ad-adp-4%ec%a3%bc-%ed%8f%89%ea%b7%a0-%ea%b3%a0%ec%9a%a9-%eb%b3%80%eb%8f%99%ec%9d%80-%ec%9d%b4%ec%a0%84-6-5%ec%b2%9c-%eb%aa%85%ec%97%90%ec%84%9c-10-3%ec%b2%9c\/","title":{"rendered":"1\uc6d4\uc5d0 \ubbf8\uad6d ADP 4\uc8fc \ud3c9\uade0 \uace0\uc6a9 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc740 \uc774\uc804 6.5\ucc9c \uba85\uc5d0\uc11c 10.3\ucc9c \uba85\uc73c\ub85c \uc99d\uac00\ud588\ub2e4."},"content":{"rendered":"\ubbf8\uad6d **ADP \uace0\uc6a9 \ubcc0\ud654(Employment Change) 4\uc8fc \ud3c9\uade0(\ucd5c\uadfc 4\uc8fc \uc218\uce58\ub97c \ud3c9\uade0\ub0b8 \uac12)**\uc740 **2024\ub144 1\uc6d4 10.3K(\uc57d 1\ub9cc 300\uba85)**\uc73c\ub85c \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774\uc804 \uae30\uac04\uc5d0\ub294 **6.5K(\uc57d 6,500\uba85)**\uc774\uc5c8\ub2e4.\n\n2024\ub144 1\uc6d4\uc5d0 ADP 4\uc8fc \ud3c9\uade0\uc774 \uc18c\ud3ed \uc624\ub978 \uac83\uc740 \ub178\ub3d9\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uc0dd\uac01\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc798 \ubc84\ud2f4\ub2e4\ub294(\uacbd\uae30 \ucda9\uaca9\uc5d0\ub3c4 \uc27d\uac8c \uaebe\uc774\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294\ub2e4\ub294) \ucd08\uae30 \uc2e0\ud638\uc600\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7f0 \uacbd\uae30 \uac15\uc138 \ud750\ub984\uc740 2024\ub144\uacfc 2025\ub144\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc774\uc5b4\uc84c\uace0, \uadf8 \uacb0\uacfc **\uc5f0\uc900(Federal Reserve, \ubbf8\uad6d \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589)**\uc740 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uae30\ub300\ud55c \uac83\ucc98\ub7fc \ube68\ub9ac **\uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558(\uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub0b4\ub9ac\ub294 \uac83)**\ub97c \ud558\uc9c0 \ubabb\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774\ub807\uac8c **\ub192\uc740 \uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \uc624\ub798 \uc720\uc9c0\ub41c \uc0c1\ud669**\uc774 \uc9c0\uae08 \uc6b0\ub9ac\uac00 \uac70\ub798\ud558\ub294 \ud658\uacbd\uc744 \ub9cc\ub4e4\uc5c8\ub2e4.\n\n

\uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uae30\ub300 \ubcc0\ud654<\/h3>\n\uc774\uc81c **2026\ub144 2\uc6d4**\uc5d0 \ub4e4\uc5b4\uc11c\uba74\uc11c, \ucd5c\uadfc \uace0\uc6a9\ubcf4\uace0\uc11c\uac00 **1\ub144 \ub118\uac8c \uac00\uc7a5 \ub290\ub9b0 \uace0\uc6a9 \uc99d\uac00 \uc18d\ub3c4**\ub97c \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc8fc\uc790 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubd84\uc704\uae30\uac00 \ub9c8\uce68\ub0b4 \ubc14\ub00c\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. **\uadfc\uc6d0 \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158(core inflation, \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc774 \ud070 \uc2dd\ub8cc\ud488\u00b7\uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0 \uac00\uaca9\uc744 \uc81c\uc678\ud55c \ubb3c\uac00 \uc9c0\ud45c)**\uc774 \ucd5c\uadfc **2.3%**\uae4c\uc9c0 \ub0b4\ub824\uc628 \uc810\uc744 \ubcf4\uba74, \uacbd\uc81c\uac00 \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc77c \ub9cc\ud07c \ucda9\ubd84\ud788 \uc2dd\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc2e0\ud638\ub85c \ud574\uc11d\ub41c\ub2e4. \ud604\uc7ac \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 **5\uc6d4 \ud68c\uc758\uc5d0\uc11c \uccab \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\uac00 \ub098\uc62c \ud655\ub960\uc744 70% \uc774\uc0c1**\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf4\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.\n\n**\uae08\ub9ac \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354**\uc5d0\uac8c \uc774\ub294 **\uc644\ud654 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074(easing cycle, \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc5ec\ub7ec \ucc28\ub840\uc5d0 \uac78\uccd0 \ub0b4\ub9ac\ub294 \ud750\ub984)**\uc758 \uc2dc\uc791\uc5d0 \ub9de\ucdb0 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc744 \uc7a1\ub294\ub2e4\ub294 \ub73b\uc774\ub2e4. \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 **SOFR \uc120\ubb3c \uc635\uc158(SOFR futures options, \ubbf8\uad6d \ub2e8\uae30\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uae30\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \ud55c SOFR \uc120\ubb3c\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \ubbf8\ub9ac \uc815\ud55c \uac00\uaca9\uc73c\ub85c \uc0ac\uace0\ud314 \uad8c\ub9ac\ub97c \uac70\ub798\ud558\ub294 \ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488)**\uc744 \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud574, \uc62c\ud574 \ud558\ubc18\uae30\uc5d0 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \ubc18\uc601\ud55c \uac83\ubcf4\ub2e4 **\ub354 \ube60\ub978 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uc18d\ub3c4**\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\uc774 \uc720\ub9ac\ud558\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf8\ub2e4. \uac00\uc7a5 \ud070 \uc704\ud5d8\uc740 \uacbd\uc81c \uc9c0\ud45c\uac00 \uac11\uc790\uae30 \ub2e4\uc2dc \uac15\ud574\uc9c0\ub294 \uac83(\uacbd\uae30 \uc7ac\uac00\uc18d)\uc774\uc9c0\ub9cc, \ud604 \uc2dc\uc810\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud06c\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc544 \ubcf4\uc778\ub2e4.\n\n**\uc8fc\uc2dd\uc2dc\uc7a5**\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc774\ub7f0 \ubcc0\ud654\uac00 **\ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488(derivatives, \uae30\ucd08\uc790\uc0b0 \uac00\uaca9\uc744 \ubc14\ud0d5\uc73c\ub85c \uac00\uce58\uac00 \uc815\ud574\uc9c0\ub294 \uae08\uc735\uc0c1\ud488)**\uc73c\ub85c \uac70\ub798\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc744 \ub9cc\ub4e0\ub2e4. \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\ub294 \ubcf4\ud1b5 \uc8fc\uc2dd\uc5d0 \uae0d\uc815\uc801\uc774\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\ub97c \ubd80\ub974\ub294 **\uacbd\uae30 \ub454\ud654**\ub294 \uae30\uc5c5 **\uc774\uc775(earnings, \uae30\uc5c5\uc758 \uc2e4\uc801)**\uc744 \uc545\ud654\uc2dc\ud0ac \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub798\uc11c \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 **VIX \ucf5c\uc635\uc158(VIX call options, \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uc9c0\uc218 VIX\uac00 \uc624\ub97c \ub54c \uc774\uc775\uc774 \ub0a0 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \ub9e4\uc218 \uad8c\ub9ac)**\uc744 \uc0ac\uac70\ub098, **SPX \uac19\uc740 \uc8fc\uc694 \uc9c0\uc218\uc5d0 \ucf5c\ub77c(collar, \ubcf4\uc720 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc744 \ubcf4\ud638\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \ud48b\uc635\uc158\uc744 \uc0ac\uace0 \ucf5c\uc635\uc158\uc744 \ud30c\ub294 \u2018\ubc29\uc5b4\ud615 \uc635\uc158 \uc870\ud569\u2019)**\ub97c \uc4f0\ub294 \uac83\uc774 \uc55e\uc73c\ub85c \uba87 \uc8fc \ub3d9\uc548\uc758 \uc7a0\uc7ac\uc801 \ud558\ub77d\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud558\ub294 **\ube44\uc6a9 \ud6a8\uc728\uc801\uc778** \ubc29\ubc95\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \ubcf8\ub2e4.\n\n\ub610\ud55c \ubbf8\uad6d \ub2ec\ub7ec\uac00 \uac70\uc758 2\ub144 \ub3d9\uc548 \uac15\uc138\uc600\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc5d0 **\ud1b5\ud654 \ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488**\uc5d0\uc11c\ub3c4 \uae30\ud68c\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\uc5d0 \uac00\uae4c\uc6cc\uc9c8\uc218\ub85d, \ub2e4\ub978 \ub098\ub77c \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc774 \ub354 **\ub9e4\ud30c\uc801(hawkish, \ubb3c\uac00\ub97c \uc7a1\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub354 \uc62c\ub9ac\uac70\ub098 \ub192\uc740 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc624\ub798 \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\ub824\ub294 \uc131\ud5a5)**\uc778 \ud1b5\ud654 \ub300\ube44 \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub294 \uc57d\ud574\uc9c8 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud06c\ub2e4. **EUR\/USD \uac19\uc740 \ud1b5\ud654\uc30d\uc758 \uc7a5\uae30 \ub9cc\uae30 \uc635\uc158(Long-dated options, \ub9cc\uae30\uac00 \uae34 \uc635\uc158)**\uc740 \uc774 \ud750\ub984\uc5d0 **\ub808\ubc84\ub9ac\uc9c0(leveraged exposure, \uc801\uc740 \ub3c8\uc73c\ub85c \ub354 \ud070 \uac00\uaca9 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc784\uc5d0 \ub178\ucd9c\ub418\ub294 \uac83)**\ub97c \uc5bb\ub294 \uc218\ub2e8\uc774 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.\n\n

\ud1b5\ud654 \ubc0f \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc154\ub2dd<\/h3>\n\n\n

VT Markets \ub77c\uc774\ube0c \uacc4\uc815\uc744 \ub9cc\ub4e4\uace0 \uc9c0\uae08 \ubc14\ub85c \uac70\ub798<\/a>\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uc138\uc694.<\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

ADP \uace0\uc6a9 4\uc8fc \ud3c9\uade0\uc774 10.3K\ub85c \uc18c\ud3ed \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud558\uba70 \uace0\uae08\ub9ac \uc7a5\uae30\ud654\ub97c \uc608\uace0\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774\uc81c 2026\ub144 2\uc6d4 \ub454\ud654 \uc2e0\ud638\ub85c 5\uc6d4 \uae08\ub9ac\uc778\ud558 \uae30\ub300\uac00 \ucee4\uc838, SOFR\u00b7VIX\u00b7\ud658\uc728 \uc635\uc158 \uae30\ud68c\uac00 \ubd80\uc0c1. – vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-38484","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38484","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/62"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=38484"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38484\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=38484"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=38484"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=38484"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}