{"id":38382,"date":"2026-02-16T17:24:44","date_gmt":"2026-02-16T17:24:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/%eb%a0%88%ec%98%a4%ec%9a%b0%eb%8a%94-%ed%8a%b8%eb%a0%88%ec%9d%b4%eb%8d%94%eb%93%a4%ec%9d%b4-%eb%af%b8%ea%b5%ad-%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-%ec%a0%84%eb%a7%9d%ec%9d%84-%ec%9e%ac%ea%b2%80%ed%86%a0%ed%95%98\/"},"modified":"2026-02-16T17:24:44","modified_gmt":"2026-02-16T17:24:44","slug":"%eb%a0%88%ec%98%a4%ec%9a%b0%eb%8a%94-%ed%8a%b8%eb%a0%88%ec%9d%b4%eb%8d%94%eb%93%a4%ec%9d%b4-%eb%af%b8%ea%b5%ad-%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-%ec%a0%84%eb%a7%9d%ec%9d%84-%ec%9e%ac%ea%b2%80%ed%86%a0%ed%95%98","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/%eb%a0%88%ec%98%a4%ec%9a%b0%eb%8a%94-%ed%8a%b8%eb%a0%88%ec%9d%b4%eb%8d%94%eb%93%a4%ec%9d%b4-%eb%af%b8%ea%b5%ad-%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-%ec%a0%84%eb%a7%9d%ec%9d%84-%ec%9e%ac%ea%b2%80%ed%86%a0%ed%95%98\/","title":{"rendered":"\ub808\uc624\uc6b0\ub294 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354\ub4e4\uc774 \ubbf8\uad6d \uae08\ub9ac \uc804\ub9dd\uc744 \uc7ac\uac80\ud1a0\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ub9d0\ud55c\ub2e4\u2026\uac15\ud55c \uace0\uc6a9\uacfc \uc644\ud654\ub41c \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc18d\uc5d0 10\ub144\ubb3c \uae08\ub9ac\ub294 4% \uadfc\ucc98"},"content":{"rendered":"\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uacfc \uc5c7\uac08\ub9b0 \ubbf8\uad6d \uacbd\uc81c \uc9c0\ud45c \uc774\ud6c4, **\ubbf8\uad6d \ub2ec\ub7ec \uae08\ub9ac \uc218\uc900(\ub2ec\ub7ec\ub85c \uac70\ub798\ub418\ub294 \uc774\uc790\uc728)**\uc744 \ub2e4\uc2dc \ud3c9\uac00\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. DBS\uc758 \ud55c \uacbd\uc81c\ud559\uc790\ub294 **\ubbf8\uad6d 10\ub144\ubb3c \uad6d\ucc44 \uc218\uc775\ub960(10\ub144 \ub9cc\uae30 \uad6d\ucc44\uc758 \uc5f0 \uc774\uc790\uc728)**\uc774 \ub2e8\uae30 \uc804\ub9dd\uce58\uc778 **4%**\uc5d0 \uadfc\uc811\ud588\ub2e4\uace0 \ub9d0\ud588\ub2e4.\n\n\ubbf8\uad6d \uacbd\uc81c\ub294 \u201c\uace8\ub514\ub77d\uc2a4(Goldilocks)\u201d\ub85c \uc124\uba85\ub410\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 **\uacbd\uae30\uac00 \ub108\ubb34 \ub728\uac81\uc9c0\ub3c4(\ubb3c\uac00 \uae09\ub4f1) \ub108\ubb34 \ucc28\uac11\uc9c0\ub3c4(\uacbd\uae30 \uce68\uccb4) \uc54a\uc740, \u2018\uc801\ub2f9\ud55c\u2019 \uc0c1\ud0dc**\ub97c \ub73b\ud55c\ub2e4. **\ube44\ub18d\uc5c5\ubd80\ubb38 \uace0\uc6a9(\ub18d\uc5c5\uc744 \uc81c\uc678\ud55c \uc2e0\uaddc \uc77c\uc790\ub9ac \uc218)**\uc740 \uac15\ud588\uace0, **CPI(\uc18c\ube44\uc790\ubb3c\uac00\uc9c0\uc218: \uc18c\ube44\uc790 \ubb3c\uac00\uc758 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc8fc\ub294 \uc9c0\ud45c)**\ub294 \ub354 \uc644\ub9cc\ud588\ub2e4. \uae30\uc0ac\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 **\ub178\ub3d9\uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc9c0\ud45c(\uace0\uc6a9\uacfc \uc784\uae08 \uac19\uc740 \uc790\ub8cc)**\uac00 **\uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558(\uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub0b4\ub9ac\ub294 \uac83)**\uac00 \uc5b8\uc81c \uc2dc\uc791\ub420\uc9c0\ub97c \uc88c\uc6b0\ud558\ub294 \ud575\uc2ec \uc694\uc778\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \uc124\uba85\ud55c\ub2e4.\n\n

Fed Cut Timing Shifts Later<\/h3>\nDBS\ub294 **\uc5f0\uc900(Federal Reserve: \ubbf8\uad6d \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589)**\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uc2dc\uc810\uc744 **2026\ub144 \ud558\ubc18\uae30**\ub85c \ub2a6\ucdc4\ub2e4. \uc774\uc81c **25bp(\ubca0\uc774\uc2dc\uc2a4\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8: 0.01%\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8)\uc529 \ub450 \ubc88** \uc778\ud558\ub97c \uc804\ub9dd\ud558\uba70, **3\ubd84\uae30(3Q)**\uc5d0 \ud55c \ubc88, **4\ubd84\uae30(4Q)**\uc5d0 \ud55c \ubc88\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf8\ub2e4.\n\n\uc774 \uacbd\ub85c\uc5d0\uc11c **\ucd5c\uc885\uae08\ub9ac(terminal rate: \uc778\ud558\/\uc778\uc0c1 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074\uc774 \ub05d\ub0ac\uc744 \ub54c \ub3c4\ub2ec\ud558\ub294 \uae08\ub9ac \uc218\uc900)** \uc804\ub9dd\uce58\ub294 **3.25%**\ub2e4. \uc774\uc804 \uc804\ub9dd\uc740 **1\ubd84\uae30(1Q)**\uc5d0 **25bp 1\ud68c \uc778\ud558**, \ucd5c\uc885\uae08\ub9ac **3.50%**\uc600\ub2e4.\n\n\uc218\uc815\ub41c \uc804\ub9dd\uc740 **\ub178\ub3d9\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uc644\ub9cc\ud574\uc9c0\uace0(\uace0\uc6a9 \uacfc\uc5f4\uc774 \uc904\uace0)** **\ubb3c\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\uc774 \uacc4\uc18d \ub454\ud654**\ub41c\ub2e4\ub294 \uc870\uac74\uc744 \uc804\uc81c\ub85c \ud55c\ub2e4. \uae30\uc0ac\uc5d0\ub294 \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504\uac00 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub0ae\ucd94\ub77c\uace0 **\uc815\uce58\uc801 \uc555\ub825**\uc744 \uac00\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc810\ub3c4 \uc694\uc778\uc73c\ub85c \uc5b8\uae09\ub41c\ub2e4.\n\n\uc774 \uae00\uc740 **AI \ub3c4\uad6c**\ub85c \uc791\uc131\ub410\uace0 \ud3b8\uc9d1\uc790\uac00 \uac80\ud1a0\ud588\uc73c\uba70, FXStreet \uc778\uc0ac\uc774\ud2b8 \ud300\uc774 \ubc1c\ud589\ud588\ub2e4.\n\n

Market Pricing And Strategy Implications<\/h3>\n\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uacfc \uc5c7\uac08\ub9b0 \uacbd\uc81c \ubcf4\uace0\uc11c \uc774\ud6c4 \uae30\ub300\ub97c \ub2e4\uc2dc \uc870\uc815\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. **2026\ub144 7\uc6d4 \uc774\uc804 \uc5f0\uc900 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131**\uc774 \ud06c\uac8c \ub0ae\uc544\uc9c0\uba74\uc11c, **SOFR \uc120\ubb3c(secured overnight financing rate futures: SOFR, \uc989 \u2018\ub2f4\ubcf4\uac00 \uc788\ub294 \ud558\ub8e8\uc9dc\ub9ac \uae08\ub9ac\u2019\ub97c \uae30\ucd08\ub85c \ud55c \ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488)** \uac19\uc740 **\ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488(derivatives: \ub2e4\ub978 \uc790\uc0b0 \uac00\uaca9\uc744 \ubc14\ud0d5\uc73c\ub85c \uac00\uce58\uac00 \uc815\ud574\uc9c0\ub294 \uac70\ub798 \uc0c1\ud488)** \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \ub2e4\uc2dc \ub9e4\uaca8\uc9c0\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354\ub4e4\uc740 \ub354 \ube60\ub978 \ud1b5\ud654 \uc644\ud654(\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub0ae\ucd94\ub294 \uc815\ucc45)\ub97c \uc608\uc0c1\ud574 \uc7a1\uc544\ub454 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc744 \uc815\ub9ac\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.\n\n\ubbf8\uad6d \uacbd\uc81c\ub294 \u201c\uace8\ub514\ub77d\uc2a4\u201d \uad6d\uba74\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf4\uc778\ub2e4. **2026\ub144 1\uc6d4 \uace0\uc6a9\ubcf4\uace0\uc11c**\ub294 \uc2e0\uaddc \uc77c\uc790\ub9ac **31\ub9cc5,000\uac1c**\ub85c \uac15\ud588\ub2e4. \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 **1\uc6d4 CPI**\ub294 **2.9%**\ub85c \uc18c\ud3ed \ub454\ud654\ud574, \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \ucd94\uac00 \uc778\uc0c1\uc744 \ubc14\ub85c \uace0\ubbfc\ud560 \ud544\uc694\ub294 \uc904\uc5c8\ub2e4. **\uace0\uc6a9\uc774 \uac15\ud558\uace0 \ubb3c\uac00\uac00 \uc548\uc815\uc801**\uc774\uba74 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc774 \uae09\ud558\uac8c \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc77c \uc774\uc720\uac00 \uc801\uc5b4\uc9c4\ub2e4.\n\n\uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\uac00 \ub2a6\uc5b4\uc9c0\uba74, **\uc218\uc775\ub960\uace1\uc120\uc758 \ub2e8\uae30 \uad6c\uac04(front end: 1~2\ub144 \ub4f1 \ub2e8\uae30 \uae08\ub9ac \uad6c\uac04)**\uc774 \uc55e\uc73c\ub85c \uba87 \ub2ec \ub3d9\uc548 \ub192\uc740 \uc218\uc900\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 **Fed Funds \uc120\ubb3c(\uc5f0\uc900 \uc815\ucc45\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uae30\ucd08\ub85c \ud55c \uc120\ubb3c)**\uc5d0\uc11c **\ub9cc\uae30\uac00 \uc9e7\uc740 \ucf5c\uc635\uc158(\uc9e7\uc740 \uae30\uac04 \uc548\uc5d0 \uc815\ud574\uc9c4 \uac00\uaca9\uc73c\ub85c \uc0b4 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uad8c\ub9ac) \ub9e4\ub3c4** \uac19\uc740 \uc804\ub7b5\uc744 \uac80\ud1a0\ud560 \uae30\ud68c\uac00 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774\ub807\uac8c \ud558\uba74 **\ud504\ub9ac\ubbf8\uc5c4(premium: \uc635\uc158\uc744 \ud314 \ub54c \ubc1b\ub294 \ub300\uac00)**\uc744 \ubc1b\uc744 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \ucd5c\uc18c\ud55c \uc0c1\ubc18\uae30\uae4c\uc9c0 \u201c\ud558\uc774 \ud3ec \ub871\uac70(higher for longer: \uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \u2018\ub354 \ub192\uace0 \ub354 \uc624\ub798\u2019 \uc720\uc9c0\ub418\ub294 \uc0c1\ud669)\u201d\uc5d0 \uc801\uc751\ud558\ub294 \ubaa8\uc2b5\uc774\ub2e4.\n\n**10\ub144\ubb3c \uad6d\ucc44 \uc218\uc775\ub960**\uc774 \ud604\uc7ac **4% \ubc14\ub85c \uc544\ub798**\uc5d0\uc11c \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc774\uba74\uc11c, \uc774 \uc218\uc900\uc774 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uc911\uc694\ud55c \uae30\uc900\uc810\uc774 \ub410\ub2e4. \uc774 \uc218\uc775\ub960\uc774 **\uc9c0\uc18d\uc801\uc73c\ub85c 4%\ub97c \ub118\uc73c\uba74**, **\ucc44\uad8c\uc120\ubb3c(bond futures: \ucc44\uad8c \uac00\uaca9\uc744 \ubbf8\ub798\uc5d0 \uc0ac\uace0\ud30c\ub294 \uacc4\uc57d)** \uc804\ubc18\uc758 \ucd94\uac00 \ud558\ub77d\uc774 \ub098\uc640 **\uc7a5\uae30\ubb3c(\ub9cc\uae30\uac00 \uae34 \uc0c1\ud488) \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158**\uc5d0 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \uc904 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 **10\ub144\ubb3c \uad6d\ucc44\uc120\ubb3c \uc635\uc158**\uc5d0\uc11c \ub354 \ud070 \ucc38\uc5ec\uc790\ub4e4\uc758 \ud655\uc2e0\uc774 \ub098\ud0c0\ub098\ub294\uc9c0 **\uc635\uc158 \uac70\ub798 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc784**\uc744 \uc0b4\ud53c\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.\n\n\uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \uc774\ub7f0 **\ub370\uc774\ud130 \uc758\uc874(data-dependent: \uc9c0\ud45c \uacb0\uacfc\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \uc815\ucc45\uc744 \uc870\uc815\ud558\ub294 \ud0dc\ub3c4)**\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\uba74, **\uae08\ub9ac \uc635\uc158\uc758 \ub0b4\uc7ac \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131(implied volatility: \uc635\uc158 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ubc18\uc601\ub41c \u2018\uc55e\uc73c\ub85c\uc758 \ubcc0\ub3d9 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\u2019)**\uc774 \uc27d\uac8c \ub0ae\uc544\uc9c0\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc744 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. **MOVE \uc9c0\uc218(MOVE index: \ubbf8\uad6d \uad6d\ucc44 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc8fc\ub294 \uc9c0\ud45c)**\ub294 \uc774\ubbf8 **115**\ub85c \uc62c\ub77c, \uccab \uc778\ud558 \uc2dc\uc810\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc900\ub2e4. \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354\ub4e4\uc740 \uc55e\uc73c\ub85c \ubc1c\ud45c\ub420 \ubb3c\uac00\uc640 \uace0\uc6a9 \uc9c0\ud45c\uc5d0\uc11c \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubc18\uc751\uc774 \ucee4\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \uc5fc\ub450\uc5d0 \ub46c\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4.\n\n\uc774\ub7f0 \uc0c1\ud669\uc740 \uc775\uc219\ud558\ub2e4. 2025\ub144\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ube44\uc2b7\ud55c \ud750\ub984\uc774 \uc624\ub798 \uc774\uc5b4\uc84c\ub2e4. \ub2f9\uc2dc\uc5d0\ub3c4 \uc870\uae30 \uc778\ud558 \uae30\ub300\ub294 **\uacbd\uae30 \uc9c0\ud45c\uac00 \uc608\uc0c1\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uac15\ud558\uac8c \ub098\uc624\uba74\uc11c** \uacc4\uc18d \ub4a4\ub85c \ubc00\ub838\ub2e4. \uadf8 \uacbd\ud5d8\uc740 \ub178\ub3d9\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uc774\ub807\uac8c \uac15\ud560 \ub54c\ub294 \uc5f0\uc900\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc55e\uc11c \ub098\uac00 \uc608\uce21\ud558\uae30 \uc5b4\ub835\ub2e4\ub294 \uc810\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc92c\ub2e4.\n\n\uc62c\ud574 3\ubd84\uae30\uc640 4\ubd84\uae30 \uc778\ud558 \uc804\ub9dd\uc740, \uacbd\uc81c\uac00 \uacc4\uc18d \uc644\ub9cc\ud574\uc9c4\ub2e4\ub294 \uc870\uac74\uc774 \ub2ec\ub824 \uc788\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c \uc2dc\uac04\uc774 \uac08\uc218\ub85d \uc815\ucc45 \uc644\ud654\ub97c \uc694\uad6c\ud558\ub294 **\uc815\uce58\uc801 \uc555\ub825** \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\ub3c4 \uace0\ub824\ud574\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc758 \uc815\ud655\ud55c \ud589\ub3d9 \uc2dc\uc810\uc744 \uc608\uce21\ud558\ub294 \uc77c\uc744 \ub354 \uc5b4\ub835\uac8c \ub9cc\ub4e0\ub2e4.\n\n\n

VT Markets \ub77c\uc774\ube0c \uacc4\uc815\uc744 \ub9cc\ub4e4\uace0 \uc9c0\uae08 \ubc14\ub85c \uac70\ub798<\/a>\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uc138\uc694.<\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u201c\uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558, \ub354 \uba40\uc5b4\uc84c\ub2e4?\u201d \ud63c\uc870 \uc9c0\ud45c\uc640 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uc18d \ub2ec\ub7ec\u00b7\ucc44\uad8c \uc7ac\ud3c9\uac00. DBS\ub294 \uace0\uc6a9 \uac15\uc138\u00b7\ubb3c\uac00 \uc644\ud654\ub85c Fed \uc778\ud558\ub97c 2026\ub144 \ud558\ubc18\uae30(3\u00b74Q \uac01 25bp)\ub85c \uc5f0\uae30, 10\ub144\ubb3c 4% \uc8fc\ubaa9. – vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-38382","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38382","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/62"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=38382"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38382\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=38382"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=38382"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=38382"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}