{"id":38310,"date":"2026-02-16T02:59:12","date_gmt":"2026-02-16T02:59:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/%eb%82%b4%ea%b0%81%eb%b6%80-%ec%9e%90%eb%a3%8c%ec%97%90-%eb%94%b0%eb%a5%b4%eb%a9%b4-%ec%9d%bc%eb%b3%b8%ec%9d%98-2025%eb%85%84-4%eb%b6%84%ea%b8%b0-gdp%eb%8a%94-%ec%a0%84-%eb%b6%84%ea%b8%b0-%eb%8c%80\/"},"modified":"2026-02-16T02:59:12","modified_gmt":"2026-02-16T02:59:12","slug":"%eb%82%b4%ea%b0%81%eb%b6%80-%ec%9e%90%eb%a3%8c%ec%97%90-%eb%94%b0%eb%a5%b4%eb%a9%b4-%ec%9d%bc%eb%b3%b8%ec%9d%98-2025%eb%85%84-4%eb%b6%84%ea%b8%b0-gdp%eb%8a%94-%ec%a0%84-%eb%b6%84%ea%b8%b0-%eb%8c%80","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/%eb%82%b4%ea%b0%81%eb%b6%80-%ec%9e%90%eb%a3%8c%ec%97%90-%eb%94%b0%eb%a5%b4%eb%a9%b4-%ec%9d%bc%eb%b3%b8%ec%9d%98-2025%eb%85%84-4%eb%b6%84%ea%b8%b0-gdp%eb%8a%94-%ec%a0%84-%eb%b6%84%ea%b8%b0-%eb%8c%80\/","title":{"rendered":"\ub0b4\uac01\ubd80 \uc790\ub8cc\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74 \uc77c\ubcf8\uc758 2025\ub144 4\ubd84\uae30 GDP\ub294 \uc804 \ubd84\uae30 \ub300\ube44 0.1% \uc99d\uac00\ud574 \uc608\uc0c1\uce58 0.4%\ub97c \ubc11\ub3cc\uc558\uc73c\uba70, 3\ubd84\uae30 \uc5ed\uc131\uc7a5 \uc774\ud6c4 \ubc18\ub4f1\ud588\ub2e4."},"content":{"rendered":"\uc77c\ubcf8 \ub0b4\uac01\ubd80\uac00 \uc6d4\uc694\uc77c\uc5d0 \ubc1c\ud45c\ud55c \uc608\ube44 \ubcf4\uace0\uc11c\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74, 2025\ub144 4\ubd84\uae30 \uc77c\ubcf8 \uacbd\uc81c\ub294 \uc804 \ubd84\uae30 \ub300\ube44(quarter-on-quarter, **\uc774\uc804 \ubd84\uae30\uc640 \ube44\uad50**) 0.1% \uc131\uc7a5\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 3\ubd84\uae30 0.7% \uac10\uc18c \uc774\ud6c4\uc758 \uacb0\uacfc\uc774\uba70, \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc608\uc0c1\uce58 0.4%\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ubabb \ubbf8\ucce4\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n\uc5f0\uc728(annualised basis, **\ubd84\uae30 \uc218\uce58\ub97c 1\ub144 \uae30\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \ud658\uc0b0\ud55c \uac12**) \uae30\uc900\uc73c\ub85c\ub294 GDP\uac00 0.2% \uc99d\uac00\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc608\uc0c1\uce58 1.6%\ub97c \ubc11\ub3cc\uc558\uace0, 3\ubd84\uae30 2.3% \uac10\uc18c\uc5d0 \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c4 \uc218\uce58\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n

Usd Jpy\uc5d0\uc11c\uc758 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubc18\uc751<\/h3>\n\uc791\uc131 \uc2dc\uc810 \uae30\uc900\uc73c\ub85c USD\/JPY\ub294 153.00\uc744 \uc57d\uac04 \uc6c3\ub3c4\ub294 \uc218\uc900\uc5d0\uc11c \uac70\ub798\ub418\uace0 \uc788\uc5c8\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774 \ud1b5\ud654\uc30d(pair, **\ub450 \ud1b5\ud654\ub97c \uc9dd\uc9c0\uc5b4 \ud45c\uc2dc\ud55c \ud658\uc728**)\uc740 \ub2f9\uc77c \uae30\uc900 \uc57d 0.55% \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n\uc774\ubc88 \uacb0\uacfc\uc758 \ud575\uc2ec\uc740 \uc77c\ubcf8 \uacbd\uc81c\uac00 \uac70\uc758 \uba48\ucdb0 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc810\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. 0.1% \uc131\uc7a5\uc740 \uae30\uc220\uc801 \uacbd\uae30\uce68\uccb4(technical recession, **GDP\uac00 2\ubd84\uae30 \uc5f0\uc18d \uac10\uc18c\ud558\ub294 \uc0c1\ud669**)\ub97c \uac04\uc2e0\ud788 \ud53c\ud588\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uae30\ub300\uc5d0\ub294 \ud06c\uac8c \ubabb \ubbf8\ucce4\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7f0 \uc57d\ud55c \ud750\ub984\uc740 \uc77c\ubcf8\uc740\ud589(BOJ, Bank of Japan)\uc774 \uac00\uae4c\uc6b4 \uc2dc\uc77c \ub0b4\uc5d0 \ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45\uc744 \uae34\ucd95(tightening, **\uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1\uc774\ub098 \ub3c8 \uacf5\uae09\uc744 \uc904\uc774\ub294 \uc815\ucc45**)\uc73c\ub85c \ub3cc\ub9b4 \ud544\uc694\ub97c \uc0ac\uc2e4\uc0c1 \uc57d\ud558\uac8c \ub9cc\ub4ed\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc989, \ucd08\uc800\uae08\ub9ac(ultra-low interest rates, **\ub9e4\uc6b0 \ub0ae\uc740 \uae08\ub9ac**) \uae30\uc870\uac00 \ub2f9\ubd84\uac04 \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c8 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud07d\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n\uc774 \uc804\ub9dd\uc740 \ucd5c\uadfc \ud1b5\uacc4\ub85c\ub3c4 \ub4b7\ubc1b\uce68\ub429\ub2c8\ub2e4. 2026\ub144 1\uc6d4 \ucd5c\uc2e0 \ubcf4\uace0\uc11c\uc5d0\uc11c \uc77c\ubcf8\uc758 \uc2e4\uc9c8\uc784\uae08(real wages, **\ubb3c\uac00\ub97c \ubc18\uc601\ud574 \uc2e4\uc81c\ub85c \uc0b4 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \ud798\uc744 \ub098\ud0c0\ub0b8 \uc784\uae08**)\uc774 \ub2e4\uc2dc \uac10\uc18c\ud574, \uad6c\ub9e4\ub825(purchasing power, **\uac19\uc740 \ub3c8\uc73c\ub85c \uc0b4 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uc0c1\ud488\u00b7\uc11c\ube44\uc2a4\uc758 \uc591**) \uc57d\ud654\uac00 \uc774\uc5b4\uc84c\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc77c\ubcf8\uc740\ud589\uc740 \uc9c0\uc18d \uac00\ub2a5\ud55c \uc784\uae08 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc774 \uc815\ucc45 \ubcc0\uacbd\uc758 \uc804\uc81c \uc870\uac74\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \ubc18\ubcf5\ud574 \uc654\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774 \uc870\uac74\uc774 \ucda9\uc871\ub418\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc740 \ub9cc\ud07c, \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ucc38\uc5ec\uc790(traders, **\uae08\uc735\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c \ub9e4\ub9e4\ud558\ub294 \uc0ac\ub78c\ub4e4**)\ub294 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc774 \ube44\ub458\uae30\ud30c\uc801(dovish, **\uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1\uc5d0 \uc2e0\uc911\ud558\uace0 \uc644\ud654\uc801 \uc815\ucc45\uc744 \uc120\ud638**) \uc785\uc7a5\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud560 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \ubd10\uc57c \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n\uc678\ud658 \uac70\ub798\uc790\uc5d0\uac8c\ub294 \uc77c\ubcf8\uacfc \ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac \uaca9\ucc28(interest rate gap, **\ub450 \ub098\ub77c \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac \ucc28\uc774**) \ud655\ub300\uac00 \ud575\uc2ec\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc77c\ubcf8\uc740\ud589\uc774 \uc815\ucc45\uae08\ub9ac(policy rate, **\uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc774 \uc815\ud558\ub294 \uae30\uc900 \uae08\ub9ac**)\ub97c -0.1%\uc5d0 \ub450\ub294 \ubc18\uba74, \ubbf8\uad6d \uc5f0\ubc29\uc900\ube44\uc81c\ub3c4(Fed, **\ubbf8\uad6d \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589**)\ub294 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac(benchmark rate, **\uc2dc\uc7a5 \uae08\ub9ac\uc758 \uae30\uc900\uc774 \ub418\ub294 \uae08\ub9ac**)\ub97c \uc218\uac1c\uc6d4\uc9f8 5.25%~5.50% \ubc94\uc704\ub85c \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774 \ud070 \ucc28\uc774\ub294 \uce90\ub9ac \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub4dc(carry trade, **\uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \ub0ae\uc740 \ud1b5\ud654\ub85c \ube4c\ub824 \uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \ub192\uc740 \ud1b5\ud654 \uc790\uc0b0\uc5d0 \ud22c\uc790\ud574 \uc774\uc790 \ucc28\uc775\uc744 \ub178\ub9ac\ub294 \uac70\ub798**)\ub97c \uc720\ub9ac\ud558\uac8c \ub9cc\ub4e4\uc5b4, \uc5d4\ud654\ub97c \ube4c\ub824 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc5d0 \ud22c\uc790\ud558\ub294 \ud750\ub984\uc744 \uac15\ud654\ud558\uace0 USD\/JPY\ub97c \ub04c\uc5b4\uc62c\ub9bd\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n

\ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354\ub97c \uc704\ud55c \uc804\ub7b5 \uc2dc\uc0ac\uc810<\/h3>\n\uc774\ub7f0 \ud658\uacbd\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc5d4\ud654 \uc57d\uc138\uac00 \ub354 \uc9c4\ud589\ub420 \ub54c \uc774\uc775\uc774 \ub098\ub294 \uc635\uc158 \uc804\ub7b5(options strategies, **\uc815\ud574\uc9c4 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \uc0ac\uace0\ud314 \uad8c\ub9ac\ub97c \uc774\uc6a9\ud558\ub294 \uac70\ub798 \ubc29\uc2dd**)\uc744 \uc120\ud638\ud560 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud07d\ub2c8\ub2e4. 155 \uc218\uc900\uc744 \ubaa9\ud45c\ub85c \ud558\ub294 \ud589\uc0ac\uac00(strike price, **\uc635\uc158\uc744 \ud589\uc0ac\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub3c4\ub85d \uc815\ud574\uc9c4 \uac00\uaca9**)\uc758 USD\/JPY \ucf5c\uc635\uc158(call options, **\uc815\ud574\uc9c4 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \uc0b4 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uad8c\ub9ac**) \ub9e4\uc218\ub294 \ub2e4\uc74c \ub2e8\uacc4\ub85c \uc790\uc5f0\uc2a4\ub7fd\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774 \ud1b5\ud654\uc30d\uc740 2025\ub144 \ub9d0 150\uc744 \ub69c\ub837\ud558\uac8c \ub3cc\ud30c\ud588\uace0, \uc774\ubc88 \ubd80\uc9c4\ud55c GDP \ubcf4\uace0\uc11c\ub294 \uadf8 \uc0c1\uc2b9 \ud750\ub984\uc5d0 \ud798\uc744 \ub354\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n\uc8fc\uc2dd \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc5d4\ud654 \uc57d\uc138\uac00 \uc77c\ubcf8 \uc99d\uc2dc\uc5d0 \ubcf4\ud1b5 \uae0d\uc815\uc801\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc8fc\uc694 \uc218\ucd9c \uae30\uc5c5(exporters, **\ud574\uc678\uc5d0 \ub9ce\uc774 \ud30c\ub294 \uae30\uc5c5**)\uc758 \ud574\uc678 \uc774\uc775\uc774 \uc5d4\ud654\ub85c \ud658\uc0b0\ub420 \ub54c \ucee4\uc9c0\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub2db\ucf00\uc774 225 \uc9c0\uc218(Nikkei 225, **\uc77c\ubcf8 \ub300\ud45c \uc8fc\uac00\uc9c0\uc218**)\ub3c4 \uc624\ub298 \uac70\ub798\uc5d0\uc11c 1% \uc774\uc0c1 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud558\uba70 \uc774\ubbf8 \ubc18\uc751\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 2025\ub144 \ub0b4\ub0b4 \ubcf4\uc600\ub358 \uc804\ud615\uc801 \ud328\ud134\uc73c\ub85c, \uc5d4\ud654 \uac00\uce58 \ud558\ub77d(\uc5d4\ud654 \uc57d\uc138)\uc774 \uc8fc\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uacfc \ud568\uaed8 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc600\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n\ub530\ub77c\uc11c \uc55e\uc73c\ub85c \uba87 \uc8fc \ub3d9\uc548 \ub2db\ucf00\uc774 225 \uc120\ubb3c(futures, **\ubbf8\ub798\uc758 \uc815\ud574\uc9c4 \uc2dc\uc810\uc5d0 \uc815\ud574\uc9c4 \uac00\uaca9\uc73c\ub85c \uc0ac\uace0\ud30c\ub294 \uacc4\uc57d**)\uacfc \ucf5c\uc635\uc158 \ub9e4\uc218\uac00 \ub298\uc5b4\ub0a0 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ucc38\uc5ec\uc790\ub4e4\uc740 \uc5d4\ud654 \uc57d\uc138\uac00 \uc9c0\uc18d\ub420 \ub54c \uae30\uc5c5 \uc774\uc775\uc774 \ub298\uc5b4\ub098\ub294 \ud6a8\uacfc\ub97c \ub178\ub9b4 \uac83\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774 \uc804\ub7b5\uc740 \u201c\ub098\ub77c \uc804\uccb4 \uc131\uc7a5\ub960\uc5d0\ub294 \ub098\uc05c \uc18c\uc2dd\uc774\ub354\ub77c\ub3c4, \ud574\uc678 \ube44\uc911\uc774 \ud070 \ub300\uae30\uc5c5\uc5d0\ub294 \uc88b\uc744 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\u201d\ub294 \ud604\uc2e4\uc744 \uc774\uc6a9\ud55c \uc811\uadfc\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n\n

VT Markets \ub77c\uc774\ube0c \uacc4\uc815\uc744 \ub9cc\ub4e4\uace0 \uc9c0\uae08 \ubc14\ub85c \uac70\ub798<\/a>\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uc138\uc694.<\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\uc77c\ubcf8 GDP\uac00 \uaca8\uc6b0 0.1% \uc131\uc7a5\ud558\uba70 \uce68\uccb4\ub97c \uac04\uc2e0\ud788 \ud53c\ud588\uc9c0\ub9cc \uc804\ub9dd\uc5d4 \ubabb \ubbf8\ucce4\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. BOJ \uae34\ucd95\uc740 \uba40\uc5b4\uc9c0\uace0 \uc5d4 \uc57d\uc138\u00b7\ub2ec\ub7ec \uac15\uc138\ub85c USD\/JPY \uc0c1\uc2b9, \ub2db\ucf00\uc774 \uac15\uc138\uac00 \ubd80\uac01\ub429\ub2c8\ub2e4. – vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-38310","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38310","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/62"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=38310"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38310\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=38310"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=38310"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=38310"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}