{"id":38225,"date":"2026-02-13T11:58:21","date_gmt":"2026-02-13T11:58:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/td-%ec%a6%9d%ea%b6%8c%ec%9d%98-%eb%aa%b0%eb%a6%ac-%eb%b8%8c%eb%a3%a9%ec%8a%a4%eb%8a%94-%eb%b6%88%ed%99%95%ec%8b%a4%ec%84%b1%ec%9d%b4-%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80%ec%9d%b4-%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac%eb%a5%bc-%eb%aa%87\/"},"modified":"2026-02-13T11:58:21","modified_gmt":"2026-02-13T11:58:21","slug":"td-%ec%a6%9d%ea%b6%8c%ec%9d%98-%eb%aa%b0%eb%a6%ac-%eb%b8%8c%eb%a3%a9%ec%8a%a4%eb%8a%94-%eb%b6%88%ed%99%95%ec%8b%a4%ec%84%b1%ec%9d%b4-%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80%ec%9d%b4-%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac%eb%a5%bc-%eb%aa%87","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/td-%ec%a6%9d%ea%b6%8c%ec%9d%98-%eb%aa%b0%eb%a6%ac-%eb%b8%8c%eb%a3%a9%ec%8a%a4%eb%8a%94-%eb%b6%88%ed%99%95%ec%8b%a4%ec%84%b1%ec%9d%b4-%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80%ec%9d%b4-%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac%eb%a5%bc-%eb%aa%87\/","title":{"rendered":"TD \uc99d\uad8c\uc758 \ubab0\ub9ac \ube0c\ub8e9\uc2a4\ub294 \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc774 \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uba87 \ucc28\ub840, \uc5b8\uc81c \uc778\ud558\ud560\uc9c0\uc5d0 \uc9d1\uc911\ub3fc \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ub9d0\ud55c\ub2e4."},"content":{"rendered":"TD \uc99d\uad8c(TD Securities)\uc740 \ubbf8\uad6d \uc5f0\ubc29\uc900\ube44\uc81c\ub3c4(Fed, \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589)\uac00 **\uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac(\uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc774 \uc815\ud558\ub294 \ub300\ud45c \uae08\ub9ac)**\ub97c \ub354 \uc624\ub798 **\ub3d9\uacb0(\ubcc0\uacbd\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\uace0 \uc720\uc9c0)**\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf8\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub798\uc11c \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uad00\uc2ec\uc740 **\uc55e\uc73c\ub85c \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc5b8\uc81c, \uba87 \ubc88 \ub0b4\ub9b4\uc9c0(\uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558)**\ub85c \uc62e\uaca8\uac00\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \ud604\uc7ac \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uac00\uaca9(\uc120\ubb3c \ub4f1 \uac70\ub798\uac00\uaca9\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf8 \uc608\uc0c1)\uc740 **2026\ub144 3\uc6d4\uc5d0 2bp(\ubca0\uc774\uc2dc\uc2a4\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8, 0.01%p)**, **2026\ub144 4\uc6d4\uc5d0 5bp(0.05%p)** \uc778\ud558\ub97c \ubc18\uc601\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, 4\uc6d4 \uc778\ud558 \uae30\ub300\ub294 \ub354 \ucee4\uc9c8 \uc5ec\uc9c0\ub3c4 \uc788\ub2e4.\n\n2025\ub144 \uc774\ud6c4 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uc608\uc0c1\uc740 \ub300\uccb4\ub85c **FOMC(\uc5f0\ubc29\uacf5\uac1c\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc704\uc6d0\ud68c, Fed\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac \uacb0\uc815 \ud68c\uc758)** \uacb0\uacfc\uc640 \ube44\uc2b7\ud588\uc73c\uba70, \uc624\ucc28\ub294 \ucd5c\ub300 2bp\uc5d0 \uadf8\ucce4\ub2e4. Fed\uac00 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ubc14\uafb8\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc740 \ud68c\uc758\ub4e4\uc744 \ubcf4\uba74, \uc9c0\ub09c 5\ub144 \ub3d9\uc548 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc608\uc0c1\uacfc \uc2e4\uc81c \uacb0\uc815\uc758 \ud3c9\uade0 \ucc28\uc774\ub294 0.6bp\uc600\ub2e4.\n\n<h3>\uc2dc\uc7a5 \uad00\uc2ec, \u201c\ub2e4\uc74c \uacb0\uc815\u201d\uc5d0\uc11c \u201c\uc778\ud558 \uacbd\ub85c\u201d\ub85c \uc774\ub3d9<\/h3>\n\ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc740 \ub2e4\uc74c \ud68c\uc758\uc758 \uacb0\uc815 \uc790\uccb4\ubcf4\ub2e4, \uacbd\uae30 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074 \uc804\uccb4\uc5d0\uc11c **\uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\uac00 \uc5b4\ub5a4 \uc21c\uc11c\uc640 \uc18d\ub3c4\ub85c \uc9c4\ud589\ub420\uc9c0(\uc778\ud558 \uacbd\ub85c)**\ub85c \uc62e\uaca8\uac14\ub2e4. **\ucd5c\uc885\uae08\ub9ac(terminal rate, \uc774\ubc88 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074\uc5d0\uc11c \uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \ub3c4\ub2ec\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf4\ub294 \ucd5c\uc885 \uc218\uc900)**\ub294 2025\ub144 \uc911\ubc18 \uc774\ud6c4 \uc57d 3.1% \uadfc\ucc98\uc5d0 \uba38\ubb3c\ub800\ub2e4.\n\n2024\ub144\uc5d0 \uccab \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\uac00 \ub098\uc628 \ub4a4, Fed\uac00 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub3d9\uacb0\ud558\uba74 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \ubcf4\ud1b5 \u201c\ub2e4\uc74c \ud68c\uc758 \uc778\ud558\u201d\ub97c \ub4a4\ub85c \ubbf8\ub8e8\uae30\ubcf4\ub2e4, \ub2e4\uc74c \ud68c\uc758\uc5d0 \ub123\uc5b4\ub454 \uc778\ud558 \uae30\ub300\ub97c \uc904\uc774\ub294 \ucabd\uc73c\ub85c \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc600\ub2e4. \ub354 \ub4a4\uc758 \ud68c\uc758\ub4e4\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uac00\uaca9 \ubc18\uc601\uc740 \ub35c \uc77c\uc815\ud588\ub2e4.\n\nFed\uac00 **\ud3ec\uc6cc\ub4dc \uac00\uc774\ub358\uc2a4(forward guidance, \uc55e\uc73c\ub85c\uc758 \uc815\ucc45 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc744 \ubbf8\ub9ac \ub9d0\ud574 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uae30\ub300\ub97c \uc870\uc815\ud558\ub294 \uc2e0\ud638)**\ub97c \uc81c\ud55c\uc801\uc73c\ub85c\ub9cc \uc4f0\uba74\uc11c, \u201c\ube44\ub458\uae30\uc801 \ub3d9\uacb0(dovish hold, \uae08\ub9ac\ub294 \uadf8\ub300\ub85c \ub450\ub418 \uace7 \uc778\ud558\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc644\ud654\uc801 \ub258\uc559\uc2a4\ub97c \uc8fc\ub294 \ub3d9\uacb0)\u201d\uc744 \ub9cc\ub4e4\uae30\uac00 \ub354 \uc5b4\ub824\uc6cc\uc84c\ub2e4. \uacb0\uc815 \uc774\ud6c4\uc5d0\ub294 \uc778\ud558 \ud655\ub960\uc774 \ub192\uac8c \ubc18\uc601\ub3fc \uc788\ub358 \ud68c\uc758\uc77c\uc218\ub85d \uac00\uaca9 \uc7ac\uc870\uc815 \ud3ed\uc774 \ub354 \ud070 \uacbd\ud5a5\uc774 \uc788\uc5c8\ub2e4.\n\nFed\ub294 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub354 \uc624\ub798 \ub3d9\uacb0\ud558\uaca0\ub2e4\ub294 \uc2e0\ud638\ub97c \uc8fc\uace0 \uc788\uace0, \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc740 \u201c\uc2e4\uc81c\ub85c \uc5b8\uc81c \uc778\ud558\uac00 \uc2dc\uc791\ub420\uc9c0\u201d\ub85c \uc774\ub3d9\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \ucd5c\uadfc \uba87 \ub2ec \ub3d9\uc548 \ucd5c\uc885\uae08\ub9ac\ub294 2025\ub144 \uc911\ubc18 \uc774\ud6c4 \uc57d 3.1%\ub85c \uace0\uc815\ub41c \ubaa8\uc2b5\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7f0 \uc548\uc815\uc740 Fed\uac00 \uc11c\ub450\ub974\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294\ub2e4\ub294 \ub73b\uc774\ub2e4.\n\n<h3>2026\ub144 4\uc6d4 \uac00\uaca9 \ubc18\uc601\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub529 \uc2dc\uc0ac\uc810<\/h3>\n\ucd5c\uadfc \uacbd\uc81c \uc9c0\ud45c\ub294 \uc774\ub7f0 \uc2e0\uc911\ud55c \ud0dc\ub3c4\ub97c \ub4b7\ubc1b\uce68\ud558\uba70, \ub2e8\uae30\uac04 \ub0b4 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \ub0ae\ucd98\ub2e4. 2026\ub144 1\uc6d4 **\ube44\ub18d\uc5c5\ubd80\ubb38 \uace0\uc6a9(Non-Farm Payrolls, \ub18d\uc5c5\uc744 \ube80 \uc2e0\uaddc \uc77c\uc790\ub9ac \uc99d\uac00 \uc218)**\uc740 \uc77c\uc790\ub9ac 22\ub9cc5\ucc9c \uac1c\uac00 \ub298\uc5b4 \uac15\ud55c \ud750\ub984\uc744 \ubcf4\uc600\uace0, **\uc2e4\uc5c5\ub960(\uc77c\ud560 \uc0ac\ub78c\uc774 \uc77c\uc790\ub9ac\ub97c \ubabb \uad6c\ud55c \ube44\uc728)**\uc740 3.6%\ub85c \uc720\uc9c0\ub410\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c 1\uc6d4 **\uc18c\ube44\uc790\ubb3c\uac00\uc9c0\uc218(CPI, \uc18c\ube44\uc790\uac00 \uc2e4\uc81c\ub85c \uc0ac\ub294 \ubb3c\uac00\uc758 \ubcc0\ud654)**\uc5d0\uc11c **\uadfc\uc6d0\ubb3c\uac00(core inflation, \uc2dd\ub8cc\ud488\u00b7\uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0\ucc98\ub7fc \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc774 \ud070 \ud488\ubaa9\uc744 \ube80 \ubb3c\uac00)** \uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960\uc774 2.9%\ub85c \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \uc798 \ub0b4\ub824\uc624\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc558\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 Fed\uc758 \ubaa9\ud45c\ub97c \uc0c1\ub2f9\ud788 \uc6c3\ub3c4\ub294 \uc218\uc900\uc774\ub2e4.\n\n\ud604\uc7ac \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 3\uc6d4 \ud68c\uc758\uc5d0\uc11c 2bp, 4\uc6d4 \ud68c\uc758\uc5d0\uc11c 5bp\uc758 \uc791\uc740 \uc778\ud558\ub97c \ubc18\uc601\ud55c\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 \uace0\uc6a9\uc774 \uac15\ud558\uace0 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc555\ub825\uc774 \ub0a8\uc544 \uc788\ub294 \uc810\uc744 \uace0\ub824\ud558\uba74, \uc774\ub7f0 \uae30\ub300\ub294 \uc9c0\ub098\uce58\uac8c \ub099\uad00\uc801\uc77c \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \ub530\ub77c\uc11c 4\uc6d4 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ub354 \ucee4\uc9c0\ub824\ub294 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc784\uc774 \ub098\uc624\uba74, \uc774\ub97c **\ud398\uc774\ub4dc(fade, \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc131\uc5d0 \ubc18\ub300\ub85c \ubca0\ud305)**\ud558\ub294 \uae30\ud68c\uac00 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.\n\n\uc774\ub7f0 \ud328\ud134\uc740 2024\ub144\uc758 \ucd08\uae30 \uc778\ud558 \uc774\ud6c4\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ub098\ud0c0\ub0ac\ub2e4. 2025\ub144 \ub0b4\ub0b4 Fed\uac00 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc720\uc9c0\ud560 \ub54c\ub9c8\ub2e4 \uc644\ud654\uc801\uc778 \uba54\uc2dc\uc9c0\ub97c \ub0b4\uae30 \uc5b4\ub824\uc6cc \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \ubbf8\ub798 \uae30\ub300\ub97c \ub2e4\uc2dc \uc870\uc815\ud558\ub294 \uc77c\uc774 \uc788\uc5c8\ub2e4. \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \ub370\uc774\ud130\uac00 \ub4b7\ubc1b\uce68\ud558\uae30 \uc804\uc5d0 \uc778\ud558\ub97c \uc55e\uc11c \ubc18\uc601\ud558\ub294 \uacbd\ud5a5\uc774 \uc788\ub2e4.\n\n\ud5a5\ud6c4 \uba87 \uc8fc\uc758 \uc2e4\uc804 \uc804\ub7b5\uc740, \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uc608\uc0c1\ud558\ub294 \uac83\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uae08\ub9ac\uac00 **\ub354 \uc624\ub798 \ub192\uac8c \uc720\uc9c0\ub420** \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc5d0 \ub9de\ucdb0 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc744 \uc7a1\ub294 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4. \uc608\ub97c \ub4e4\uba74 2026\ub144 4\uc6d4 \ud68c\uc758\uc5d0 \uc5f0\ub3d9\ub41c **\uc120\ubb3c\u00b7\ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488(derivatives, \ub2e4\ub978 \uc0c1\ud488\uc758 \uac00\uaca9\uc744 \uae30\ubc18\uc73c\ub85c \uac00\uce58\uac00 \uc815\ud574\uc9c0\ub294 \uacc4\uc57d)**\uc744 \ub9e4\ub3c4\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\uc2dd\uc774 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc5ec\uae30\uc5d0\ub294 **SOFR(\ub2f4\ubcf4\ubd80 \uc775\uc77c\uae08\ub9ac, \ubbf8\uad6d\uc5d0\uc11c \ub110\ub9ac \uc4f0\ub294 \ub2e8\uae30 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac)** \ub610\ub294 **\uc5f0\ubc29\uae30\uae08\uae08\ub9ac \uc120\ubb3c(Fed Funds futures, Fed \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac \uc804\ub9dd\uc744 \uac70\ub798\ud558\ub294 \uc120\ubb3c)**\uc774 \ud3ec\ud568\ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774 \uac70\ub798\ub294 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uadf8 \uc2dc\uc810\uae4c\uc9c0\uc758 \uc778\ud558 \ud3ed\uc744 \uc904\uc774\uac70\ub098(\ub610\ub294 \uc778\ud558\uac00 \uc5c6\ub2e4\uace0) \ub2e4\uc2dc \ubc18\uc601\ud558\uba74 \uc774\uc775\uc774 \ub09c\ub2e4.\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph-->\n<p><b>VT Markets \ub77c\uc774\ube0c \uacc4\uc815\uc744 \ub9cc\ub4e4\uace0 \uc9c0\uae08 \ubc14\ub85c <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/trade-now\/\">\uac70\ub798<\/a>\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uc138\uc694.<\/b><\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uae30\ub300, \uacfc\uc5f4\ub410\ub098? TD\uc99d\uad8c\uc740 \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub354 \uc624\ub798 \ub3d9\uacb0\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf4\uace0, \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc740 \uc778\ud558 \uc2dc\uc810\u00b7\ud69f\uc218\ub85c \uc774\ub3d9\ud588\ub2e4\uace0 \ubd84\uc11d. 2026\ub144 3~4\uc6d4 \uc778\ud558 \uae30\ub300(2~5bp)\ub294 \uace0\uc6a9 \uac15\uc138\u00b7\ubb3c\uac00 \ub048\uc801\uc784\uc5d0 \ube44\ucdb0 \uacfc\ub3c4\ud574 \uc870\uc815 \uac00\ub2a5. &#8211; vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-38225","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38225","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/62"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=38225"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38225\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=38225"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=38225"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=38225"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}