{"id":38153,"date":"2026-02-12T18:58:43","date_gmt":"2026-02-12T18:58:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/%eb%9d%bc%eb%b3%b4%eb%b1%85%ed%81%ac%ec%9d%98-%ec%a0%9c%ec%9d%b8-%ed%8f%b4%eb%a6%ac%eb%8a%94-%eb%8b%a4%ec%b9%b4%ec%9d%b4%ec%b9%98%ec%97%90-%eb%8c%80%ed%95%9c-%ec%9e%ac%ed%8f%89%ea%b0%80%eb%90%9c\/"},"modified":"2026-02-12T18:58:43","modified_gmt":"2026-02-12T18:58:43","slug":"%eb%9d%bc%eb%b3%b4%eb%b1%85%ed%81%ac%ec%9d%98-%ec%a0%9c%ec%9d%b8-%ed%8f%b4%eb%a6%ac%eb%8a%94-%eb%8b%a4%ec%b9%b4%ec%9d%b4%ec%b9%98%ec%97%90-%eb%8c%80%ed%95%9c-%ec%9e%ac%ed%8f%89%ea%b0%80%eb%90%9c","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/%eb%9d%bc%eb%b3%b4%eb%b1%85%ed%81%ac%ec%9d%98-%ec%a0%9c%ec%9d%b8-%ed%8f%b4%eb%a6%ac%eb%8a%94-%eb%8b%a4%ec%b9%b4%ec%9d%b4%ec%b9%98%ec%97%90-%eb%8c%80%ed%95%9c-%ec%9e%ac%ed%8f%89%ea%b0%80%eb%90%9c\/","title":{"rendered":"\ub77c\ubcf4\ubc45\ud06c\uc758 \uc81c\uc778 \ud3f4\ub9ac\ub294 \ub2e4\uce74\uc774\uce58\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc7ac\ud3c9\uac00\ub41c \uacac\ud574\uac00 \uc77c\ubcf8\uc740\ud589(BOJ)\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ube44\ub458\uae30\ud30c\uc801 \uc555\ub825\uc744 \uc644\ud654\ud574 \uc5d4\ud654\uac00 145\uc120\uc73c\ub85c \ud5a5\ud558\ub294 \ub370 \ub3c4\uc6c0\uc774 \ub41c\ub2e4\uace0 \ub9d0\ud588\ub2e4."},"content":{"rendered":"\uc9c0\ub09c\ud574 10\uc6d4 \ucd08 \uc790\ubbfc\ub2f9(LDP) \ucd1d\uc7ac \uc120\uac70\uc5d0\uc11c \ub2e4\uce74\uc774\uce58\uac00 \uc2b9\ub9ac\ud55c \ub4a4 USD\/JPY\uac00 \uae09\ub4f1\ud588\ub2e4. \uc804\uc8fc \uc885\uac00\ub294 \uc57d 147.70\uc774\uc5c8\uace0, \uc6d4\uc694\uc77c \uc2dc\ucd08\ub294 \uc57d 149.11\uc774\uc5c8\uc73c\uba70, \uc774\ud6c4 \uc9c0\ub09c\ub2ec \ub9d0\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\ub2e4.\n\n\uc774 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc740 \u2018\ub2e4\uce74\uc774\uce58 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub4dc\u2019\uc640 \uc5f0\uacb0\ub410\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc815\ucc45\uc774 \uc5d4\ud654\ub97c **\uce90\ub9ac \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub4dc**(\uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \ub0ae\uc740 \ud1b5\ud654\ub97c \ube4c\ub824 \uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \ub192\uc740 \uc790\uc0b0\uc5d0 \ud22c\uc790\ud574 \uc774\uc790 \ucc28\uc774\ub97c \uc5bb\ub294 \uac70\ub798) \uc790\uae08\uc73c\ub85c \uacc4\uc18d \uc4f0\uc774\uac8c \ud560 \uac83\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uae30\ub300\uc5d0 \uae30\ubc18\ud588\ub2e4. \ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc \uc791\ub144 \ub9d0 \uc77c\ubcf8\uc740\ud589\uc774 **\uae08\ub9ac**(\ub3c8\uc744 \ube4c\ub9ac\uace0 \ube4c\ub824\uc904 \ub54c \uc801\uc6a9\ub418\ub294 \ube44\uc6a9)\ub97c \uc62c\ub9ac\uace0 \uc6b0\uc5d0\ub2e4 \ucd1d\uc7ac\uac00 **\ub9e4\ud30c\uc801**(\ubb3c\uac00 \uc5b5\uc81c\ub97c \uc704\ud574 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \uac19\uc740 \uae34\ucd95\uc744 \uc120\ud638\ud558\ub294) \ud0dc\ub3c4\ub97c \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\uba74\uc11c \uc774\ub7f0 \uad00\uce21\uc740 \uc57d\ud574\uc84c\ub2e4.\n\n

Policy Normalization And Rate Focus<\/h3>\n\uc77c\ubcf8\uc740\ud589\uc740 **\ub300\ucc28\ub300\uc870\ud45c**(\uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc774 \ubcf4\uc720\ud55c \uc790\uc0b0\uacfc \ubd80\ucc44\uc758 \uaddc\ubaa8)\uc640 **\uc7a5\uae30 \uae08\ub9ac**(\uc624\ub79c \uae30\uac04 \ub3c8\uc744 \ube4c\ub9ac\ub294 \ub370 \uc801\uc6a9\ub418\ub294 \uae08\ub9ac)\uac00 \uc815\uc0c1\uc801\uc778 \uc218\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \ub3cc\uc544\uac00\ub3c4\ub85d \ub450\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. 2024\ub144 3\uc6d4\uc5d0\ub294 **\uc815\ucc45 \uccb4\uacc4**(\uae08\ub9ac\uc640 \ucc44\uad8c \ub9e4\uc785 \ub4f1 \uc815\ucc45\uc744 \uc6b4\uc601\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\uc2dd)\ub97c \ubc14\uafe8\ub2e4.\n\n2024\ub144 3\uc6d4\ubd80\ud130\ub294 **\ub2e8\uae30 \uae08\ub9ac**(\uc9e7\uc740 \uae30\uac04\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac)\uac00 \ud575\uc2ec \uc815\ucc45 \uc218\ub2e8\uc73c\ub85c \ub2e4\uc2dc \uac15\uc870\ub410\uace0, **\uc7a5\uae30 \uae08\ub9ac**\ub294 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \ub354 \ub9ce\uc774 \uacb0\uc815\ud558\ub3c4\ub85d \ud588\ub2e4. \uc77c\ubcf8\uc740\ud589\uc740 \ucc98\uc74c\uc5d0 2024\ub144 7\uc6d4\ubd80\ud130 \ub9e4 \ubd84\uae30 **\uc6d4\uac04 \ucc44\uad8c \ub9e4\uc785**(\uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc774 \uad6d\ucc44\ub97c \uc0ac\uc11c \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0 \ub3c8\uc744 \ud478\ub294 \uc870\uce58) \uaddc\ubaa8\ub97c JPY 4000\uc5b5\uc529 \ucd94\uac00\ub85c \uc904\uc77c \uacc4\ud68d\uc774\uc5c8\ub2e4.\n\n\ub77c\ubcf4\ubc45\ud06c\ub294 12\uac1c\uc6d4 USD\/JPY \uc804\ub9dd\uce58\ub97c 145\ub85c \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \uc774\ub294 \uc5d4\ud654\uac00 \ucc9c\ucc9c\ud788 \ud68c\ubcf5\ud560 \uac83\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uc758\ubbf8\ub2e4. \uc774 \uc804\ub9dd\uc5d0\ub294 **\uc77c\ubcf8 \uad6d\ucc44(JGB) \uae08\ub9ac**(\uc77c\ubcf8 \uc815\ubd80\uac00 \ubc1c\ud589\ud55c \ucc44\uad8c\uc758 \uc218\uc775\ub960) \uc0c1\uc2b9, \ud574\uc678 \uc218\uc694 \uac1c\uc120, \uadf8\ub9ac\uace0 \uc62c\ud574 \uc77c\ubcf8\uc740\ud589\uc774 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub354 \uc62c\ub9b4 \uac83\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uae30\ub300\uac00 \ubc18\uc601\ub3fc \uc788\ub2e4.\n\n2025\ub144 \ub9d0 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uac00 \uc5d4\ud654 \ub300\ube44 \uac15\uc138\ub97c \ubcf4\uc774\uac8c \ud588\ub358 \uac00\uc815\ub4e4\uc774 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c \ub2e4\uc2dc \uac80\ud1a0\ub418\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc9c0\ub09c\ud574 10\uc6d4 \uc790\ubbfc\ub2f9 \ucd1d\uc7ac \uc120\uac70 \uc774\ud6c4 \uc2dc\uc791\ub41c \uc774\ub978\ubc14 \u2018\ub2e4\uce74\uc774\uce58 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub4dc\u2019\uac00 USD\/JPY\ub97c \uc57d 147.70\uc5d0\uc11c \ub04c\uc5b4\uc62c\ub838\ub2e4. \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \ud5a5\ud6c4 12\uac1c\uc6d4 \ub3d9\uc548 USD\/JPY\uac00 145 \ucabd\uc73c\ub85c \ub0b4\ub824\uac00\ub294, \uc644\ub9cc\ud55c \uc5d4\ud654 \ud68c\ubcf5\uc774 \uac00\ub2a5\ud558\ub2e4\ub294 \uacac\ud574\ub97c \uc720\uc9c0\ud55c\ub2e4.\n\n

Implications For Markets And Positioning<\/h3>\n\uc774 \ubcc0\ud654\ub294 \uc77c\ubcf8\uc740\ud589(BoJ)\uc774 \ub354 \uc790\uc2e0\uac10 \uc788\ub294 \ud0dc\ub3c4\ub97c \ubcf4\uc774\ub294 \uac00\uc6b4\ub370 \ub098\ud0c0\ub098\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc791\ub144 \ub9d0 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \uc774\ud6c4 \uc6b0\uc5d0\ub2e4 \ucd1d\uc7ac\ub294 \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801 \ud0dc\ub3c4\ub97c \uc720\uc9c0\ud574 \uc654\uace0, \uc5ec\uae30\uc5d0 1\uc6d4 **\uc804\uad6d \uadfc\uc6d0 CPI**(\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc774 \ud070 \ud488\ubaa9\uc744 \ube80 \uc18c\ube44\uc790\ubb3c\uac00 \uc9c0\ud45c)\uac00 2.4%\ub85c **\uc608\uc0c1\uce58**(\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774\ub098 \uc804\ubb38\uac00\ub4e4\uc774 \ubbf8\ub9ac \ucd94\uc815\ud55c \uc218\uce58)\ub97c \uc6c3\ub3cc\uba74\uc11c \uadf8 \uc785\uc7a5\uc774 \ub354 \ub4b7\ubc1b\uce68\ub410\ub2e4. \ud604\uc7ac \uc9c4\ud589 \uc911\uc778 \u2018\ucd98\ud22c\u2019 \uc784\uae08 \ud611\uc0c1\uc5d0\uc11c \ud3c9\uade0 \uc784\uae08 \uc778\uc0c1\ub960\uc774 4.5%\ub97c \ub118\uc744 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \ucd08\uae30 \ubcf4\ub3c4\ub3c4, \uc62c\ud574 \uc77c\ubcf8\uc740\ud589\uc758 \ucd94\uac00 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \uc9c0\uc9c0\ud55c\ub2e4.\n\n\uc774\ub294 2024\ub144 3\uc6d4\uc5d0 \uc2dc\uc791\ub41c \ub354 \ub113\uc740 \uc815\ucc45 \uc815\uc0c1\ud654 \ud750\ub984\uc758 \uc77c\ubd80\ub2e4. \ub2f9\uc2dc \uc77c\ubcf8\uc740\ud589\uc740 \ub2e8\uae30 \uae08\ub9ac\uc5d0 \ub354 \uc9d1\uc911\ud558\uace0, \uc7a5\uae30 **\uc218\uc775\ub960**(\ucc44\uad8c\uc5d0\uc11c \uc5bb\ub294 \uc5f0\uac04 \uc218\uc775 \ube44\uc728)\uc774 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c \ub354 \uacb0\uc815\ub418\ub3c4\ub85d \ud588\ub2e4. \uadf8 \uacb0\uacfc, \ubbf8\uad6d 10\ub144 **\uad6d\ucc44(\ubbf8\uad6d \uc7ac\ubb34\ubd80 \ucc44\uad8c)** \uc218\uc775\ub960\uacfc \uc77c\ubcf8 10\ub144 JGB \uc218\uc775\ub960\uc758 **\uae08\ub9ac \ucc28**(\ub450 \uae08\ub9ac\uc758 \ucc28\uc774)\ub294 \uc62c\ud574 \ub4e4\uc5b4 \uc774\ubbf8 25bp \uc904\uc5c8\ub2e4. **bp(\ubca0\uc774\uc2dc\uc2a4 \ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8)**\ub294 \uae08\ub9ac \ub2e8\uc704\ub85c 0.01%\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8\ub97c \ub73b\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc774 \ubcc0\ud654\ub294 \uc5d4\ud654\ub97c \ubcf4\uc720\ud558\ub294 \ub9e4\ub825\uc744 \ub192\uc778\ub2e4.\n\n\ud1b5\ud654\uc30d\uc758 \ub2e4\ub978 \ucabd\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ubbf8\uad6d \uc5f0\ubc29\uc900\ube44\uc81c\ub3c4(Fed)\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uae30\ub300\uac00 \uc57d\ud574\uc9c0\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \ucd5c\uadfc \ubbf8\uad6d \uc9c0\ud45c, \uc608\ub97c \ub4e4\uc5b4 \ucd5c\uc2e0 **\ube44\ub18d\uc5c5 \uace0\uc6a9(NFP)**(\ub18d\uc5c5\uc744 \uc81c\uc678\ud55c \uace0\uc6a9\uc790 \uc218 \uc99d\uac10) \ubcf4\uace0\uc11c\uc5d0\uc11c \uace0\uc6a9 \uc99d\uac00\uac00 15\ub9cc5\ucc9c \uba85\uc73c\ub85c \ub454\ud654\ub41c \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ub098\uc624\uba74\uc11c, **\uc5f0\uc900 \uc815\ucc45\uae08\ub9ac \uc120\ubb3c**(\uc2dc\uc7a5 \ucc38\uc5ec\uc790\ub4e4\uc774 \ubbf8\ub798 \uc815\ucc45\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc608\uc0c1\ud574 \uac70\ub798\ud558\ub294 \uc0c1\ud488)\uc740 6\uc6d4 **\uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558**(\uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ub0b4\ub9ac\ub294 \uc870\uce58) \ud655\ub960\uc744 60%\ub85c \ubc18\uc601\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7f0 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589 \uc815\ucc45 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc758 \uc5c7\uac08\ub9bc\uc740 USD\/JPY\uc5d0 \uac15\ud55c \ud558\ubc29 \uc555\ub825(\uac00\uaca9\uc744 \ub0b4\ub9ac\uac8c \ud558\ub294 \ud798)\uc73c\ub85c \uc791\uc6a9\ud55c\ub2e4.\n\n**\ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488**(\uae30\ucd08\uc790\uc0b0 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \uac00\uce58\uac00 \ubcc0\ud558\ub294 \uc0c1\ud488) \uac70\ub798\uc790\uc5d0\uac8c\ub294 \uc774\ub7f0 \ud658\uacbd\uc774 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uba87 \uc8fc~\uba87 \ub2ec \ub3d9\uc548 USD\/JPY \ud558\ub77d\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud55c **\ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158**(\ubcf4\uc720\ud55c \ub9e4\uc218\u00b7\ub9e4\ub3c4 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc758 \uac70\ub798 \uc0c1\ud0dc)\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc608\ub97c \ub4e4\uc5b4 **JPY \ucf5c\uc635\uc158**(\uc815\ud574\uc9c4 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \uc5d4\ud654\ub97c \uc0b4 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uad8c\ub9ac) \ub9e4\uc218\ub098, USD\/JPY\uc5d0\uc11c \ud558\ub77d\uc5d0 \uc720\ub9ac\ud55c **\ud48b \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc**(\ud48b\uc635\uc158\uc744 \uc0ac\uace0 \ub2e4\ub978 \ud48b\uc635\uc158\uc744 \ud30c\ub294 \uc870\ud569\uc73c\ub85c \ube44\uc6a9\uacfc \uc190\uc775\uc744 \uc870\uc808\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5)\ub97c \ud65c\uc6a9\ud574 \uc608\uc0c1\ub418\ub294 \ud558\ub77d \ud750\ub984\uc5d0 \ub300\uc751\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c **\uc678\uac00\uaca9(out-of-the-money) \ub2ec\ub7ec \ucf5c\uc635\uc158**(\uc9c0\uae08 \ub2f9\uc7a5\uc740 \uc774\uc775\uc774 \ub418\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294 \ud589\uc0ac\uac00\uaca9\uc758 \ucf5c\uc635\uc158)\uc744 \ub9e4\ub3c4\ud574 **\ud504\ub9ac\ubbf8\uc5c4**(\uc635\uc158 \uac70\ub798\uc5d0\uc11c \ubc1b\ub294 \ub300\uac00)\uc744 \uc5bb\uc73c\uba74\uc11c, \ub2ec\ub7ec\uac00 \ud06c\uac8c \uac15\ud574\uc9c0\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc744 \uac83\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\ub3c4 \uac00\ub2a5\ud558\ub2e4.\n\n\n

VT Markets \ub77c\uc774\ube0c \uacc4\uc815\uc744 \ub9cc\ub4e4\uace0 \uc9c0\uae08 \ubc14\ub85c \uac70\ub798<\/a>\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uc138\uc694.<\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u201c\ud0c0\uce74\uc774\uce58 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub4dc\u201d\ub85c \uae09\ub4f1\ud55c \ub2ec\ub7ec\/\uc5d4, \uc774\uc81c \uc5ed\ud48d? BoJ \uc815\uc0c1\ud654\u00b7\ucd94\uac00 \uc778\uc0c1 \uae30\ub300\uc640 \uc784\uae08\u00b7\ubb3c\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9, \ubbf8 Fed \uc778\ud558 \uc804\ub9dd\uc774 \uacb9\uce58\uba70 USD\/JPY 12\uac1c\uc6d4 145 \ud558\ub77d\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. – vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-38153","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38153","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/62"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=38153"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38153\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=38153"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=38153"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=38153"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}