{"id":37989,"date":"2026-02-11T03:57:53","date_gmt":"2026-02-11T03:57:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/uob%ec%9d%98-%ec%a0%9c%ec%8a%a4%ed%84%b0-%ec%bd%94%eb%8a%94-%ec%88%98%ec%a0%95%eb%90%9c-gdp%ea%b0%80-%ec%8b%b1%ea%b0%80%ed%8f%ac%eb%a5%b4%ec%9d%98-2025%eb%85%84-%ec%84%b1%ec%9e%a5%eb%a5%a0%ec%9d%84-5\/"},"modified":"2026-02-11T03:57:53","modified_gmt":"2026-02-11T03:57:53","slug":"uob%ec%9d%98-%ec%a0%9c%ec%8a%a4%ed%84%b0-%ec%bd%94%eb%8a%94-%ec%88%98%ec%a0%95%eb%90%9c-gdp%ea%b0%80-%ec%8b%b1%ea%b0%80%ed%8f%ac%eb%a5%b4%ec%9d%98-2025%eb%85%84-%ec%84%b1%ec%9e%a5%eb%a5%a0%ec%9d%84-5","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/uob%ec%9d%98-%ec%a0%9c%ec%8a%a4%ed%84%b0-%ec%bd%94%eb%8a%94-%ec%88%98%ec%a0%95%eb%90%9c-gdp%ea%b0%80-%ec%8b%b1%ea%b0%80%ed%8f%ac%eb%a5%b4%ec%9d%98-2025%eb%85%84-%ec%84%b1%ec%9e%a5%eb%a5%a0%ec%9d%84-5\/","title":{"rendered":"UOB\uc758 \uc81c\uc2a4\ud130 \ucf54\ub294 \uc218\uc815\ub41c GDP\uac00 \uc2f1\uac00\ud3ec\ub974\uc758 2025\ub144 \uc131\uc7a5\ub960\uc744 5.0%\ub85c \ub04c\uc5b4\uc62c\ub9ac\uace0 2026\ub144 \uc804\ub9dd\uce58\ub97c 3.6%\ub85c \uc81c\uc2dc\ud55c\ub2e4\uace0 \ubc1d\ud614\ub2e4."},"content":{"rendered":"\uc2f1\uac00\ud3ec\ub974\uc758 2025\ub144 4\ubd84\uae30(4Q25) \uad6d\ub0b4\ucd1d\uc0dd\uc0b0(GDP: \ud55c \ub098\ub77c\uc5d0\uc11c \uc77c\uc815 \uae30\uac04 \ub3d9\uc548 \uc0dd\uc0b0\ub41c \uc7ac\ud654\u00b7\uc11c\ube44\uc2a4\uc758 \ucd1d\uc561) \uc131\uc7a5\ub960\uc774 \uc0c1\ud5a5 \uc870\uc815\ub418\uba74\uc11c, 2025\ub144 \uc5f0\uac04 \uc131\uc7a5\ub960\uc774 5.0%\ub85c \uc62c\ub77c\uac14\ub2e4. UOB\ub294 2026\ub144 GDP(\uacbd\uc81c\uc131\uc7a5\ub960) \uc804\ub9dd\uce58\ub97c 2.6%\uc5d0\uc11c 3.6%\ub85c \uc62c\ub838\uace0, \ud1b5\uc0c1\uc0b0\uc5c5\ubd80(MTI: Singapore Ministry of Trade and Industry, \uc2f1\uac00\ud3ec\ub974 \ud1b5\uc0c1\uc0b0\uc5c5\ubd80)\ub3c4 2026\ub144 \uc804\ub9dd \ubc94\uc704\ub97c \uc0c1\ud5a5\ud588\ub2e4.\n\nMTI\uc758 \uc885\ud569\uc120\ud589\uc9c0\uc218(Composite Leading Index: \uc55e\uc73c\ub85c\uc758 \uacbd\uae30 \ud750\ub984\uc744 \ubbf8\ub9ac \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc8fc\ub294 \uc9c0\ud45c)\uac00 4Q25\uc5d0 \uc804 \ubd84\uae30 \ub300\ube44(quarter-on-quarter: \uc9c1\uc804 \ubd84\uae30\uc640 \ube44\uad50) 3.7%\ub85c \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud574 3Q\uc758 3.2%\uc5d0\uc11c \uc62c\ub790\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 2026\ub144 1\ubd84\uae30(1Q26) \uacc4\uc808\uc870\uc815 \uae30\uc900(\uacc4\uc808\uc870\uc815: \uba85\uc808\u00b7\uacc4\uc808 \uc694\uc778 \uac19\uc740 \ubc18\ubcf5 \uc694\uc778\uc744 \uc81c\uac70\ud574 \uc2e4\uc81c \ud750\ub984\uc744 \ubcf4\uae30 \uc704\ud55c \uc870\uc815) \uc804 \ubd84\uae30 \ub300\ube44 GDP \uc131\uc7a5\ub960\uc774 \ub354 \uac15\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud55c\ub2e4.\n\n<h3>Outlook For 2026 Growth<\/h3>\nUOB\uc758 \uae30\ubcf8 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624(baseline: \uac00\uc7a5 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ub192\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf4\ub294 \uae30\ubcf8 \uc804\ub9dd)\ub294 1Q26\uc5d0 \uacc4\uc808\uc870\uc815 \uae30\uc900 \uc804 \ubd84\uae30 \ub300\ube44 \uc131\uc7a5\ub960\uc774 \uac15\ud558\uace0, 2Q26\uc5d0\ub294 \uc57d\ud574\uc9c0\uba70, 3Q\u20134Q26\uc5d0\ub294 \uc99d\uac00 \ud3ed\uc774 \ub9e4\uc6b0 \uc791\uc744 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf8\ub2e4. \uc774 \uae30\ubcf8 \uc804\ub9dd\uc5d0\uc11c \uc0b0\ucd9c\uac2d(output gap: \uc2e4\uc81c \uc0dd\uc0b0\uc774 \uacbd\uc81c\uc758 \u2018\ud3c9\uc18c \uac00\ub2a5\ud55c \uc0dd\uc0b0 \uc218\uc900\u2019\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc5bc\ub9c8\ub098 \uc704\u00b7\uc544\ub798\uc778\uc9c0 \ub098\ud0c0\ub0b8 \uac12)\uc740 2026\ub144\uc5d0 1.0%\ub85c \ud50c\ub7ec\uc2a4(positive: \uc2e4\uc81c\uac00 \uc7a0\uc7ac \uc218\uc900\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub192\uc740 \uc0c1\ud0dc)\ub97c \uc720\uc9c0\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ub418\uba70, 2025\ub144\uc758 1.2%\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub0ae\ub2e4.\n\n\uc0b0\ucd9c\uac2d\uc774 \ud50c\ub7ec\uc2a4\uba74 2026\ub144 4\uc6d4 \uc2f1\uac00\ud3ec\ub974 \ud1b5\ud654\uccad(MAS: Monetary Authority of Singapore, \uc2f1\uac00\ud3ec\ub974\uc758 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589 \uc5ed\ud560 \uae30\uad00)\uc774 \ud55c \ucc28\ub840(one-off: \uc5ec\ub7ec \ucc28\ub840\uac00 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c \ud55c \ubc88) \uc815\ucc45 \uc870\uc815\uc744 \ud560 \uac83\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uc804\ub9dd\uc744 \ub4b7\ubc1b\uce68\ud55c\ub2e4. \uc5ec\uae30\uc11c \ub9d0\ud558\ub294 \uc870\uc815\uc740 S$NEER \uc815\ucc45 \ubc34\ub4dc \uae30\uc6b8\uae30(S$NEER: \uc2f1\uac00\ud3ec\ub974\ub2ec\ub7ec\uac00 \uc8fc\uc694 \uad50\uc5ed\uad6d \ud1b5\ud654 \ubc14\uc2a4\ucf13 \ub300\ube44 \uc5bc\ub9c8\ub098 \uac15\ud55c\uc9c0 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc8fc\ub294 \uc9c0\uc218 \/ \uc815\ucc45 \ubc34\ub4dc: \ud5c8\uc6a9 \ubc94\uc704 \/ \uae30\uc6b8\uae30: \uc2dc\uac04\uc774 \uc9c0\ub0a0\uc218\ub85d \ubc34\ub4dc\uac00 \uc5bc\ub9c8\ub098 \uc62c\ub77c\uac00\ub3c4\ub85d \ub450\ub294\uc9c0)\ub97c \uc5f0 1.0%\ub85c 50bp(\ubca0\uc774\uc2dc\uc2a4\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8: 0.01%p, 50bp=0.50%p) \ub354 \uac00\ud30c\ub974\uac8c \ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc774\ub2e4. \ubaa9\uc801\uc740 S$REER(S$REER: \ubb3c\uac00 \uc218\uc900 \ucc28\uc774\uae4c\uc9c0 \ubc18\uc601\ud55c \u2018\uc2e4\uc9c8\u2019 \ud658\uc728 \uc9c0\ud45c)\ub97c \uade0\ud615 \uc218\uc900(equilibrium: \uacfc\ub3c4\ud558\uac8c \uac15\ud558\uac70\ub098 \uc57d\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc740 \uc801\uc815 \uc218\uc900)\uc5d0 \ub354 \uac00\uae5d\uac8c \ub450\ub824\ub294 \uac83\uc774\uc9c0, \uae34\ucd95(tightening: \ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45\uc744 \ub354 \ube61\ube61\ud558\uac8c \ud574 \ubb3c\uac00\u00b7\uacfc\uc5f4\uc744 \ub204\ub974\ub824\ub294 \uac83)\uc744 \uc5ec\ub7ec \ubc88 \uc774\uc5b4\uac00\ub824\ub294 \uc2dc\uc791\uc774 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c\ub294 \ub73b\uc774\ub2e4.\n\n<h3>Implications For Mas Policy<\/h3>\n\uacbd\uc81c\uac00 \uac15\ud558\ub2e4\ub294 \uc810(\uc0b0\ucd9c\uac2d\uc774 \ud50c\ub7ec\uc2a4\uc778 \uc810)\uc740 MAS\uc758 \uc815\ucc45 \ub300\uc751\uc744 \uac00\ub9ac\ud0a8\ub2e4. 1\uc6d4 \uadfc\uc6d0\ubb3c\uac00(core inflation: \uc2dd\ub8cc\ud488\u00b7\uc5d0\ub108\uc9c0\ucc98\ub7fc \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc774 \ud070 \ud488\ubaa9\uc744 \ube80 \ubb3c\uac00)\uc774 3.3%\ub85c \uc62c\ub77c, \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ub300\uc751 \uc555\ub825\uc774 \ucee4\uc9c0\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \ub530\ub77c\uc11c \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 MAS\uac00 4\uc6d4 \ud68c\uc758\uc5d0\uc11c \ud1b5\ud654\uc815\ucc45\uc744 \uae34\ucd95\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf8\ub2e4.\n\n\uac00\uc7a5 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud070 \uc870\uce58\ub294 S$NEER \uc815\ucc45 \ubc34\ub4dc\uc758 \uae30\uc6b8\uae30\ub97c \ub354 \uac00\ud30c\ub974\uac8c \ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c, \uc2f1\uac00\ud3ec\ub974\ub2ec\ub7ec\uac00 \uad50\uc5ed \uc0c1\ub300\uad6d \ud1b5\ud654 \ub300\ube44 \ub354 \ube60\ub974\uac8c \uc808\uc0c1(\ud1b5\ud654\uac00\uce58 \uc0c1\uc2b9, appreciate: \uac19\uc740 \uc678\ud654\ub85c \uc0b4 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uc790\uad6d\ud1b5\ud654\uac00 \ub298\uc5b4\ub098\ub294 \ud604\uc0c1)\ub418\ub3c4\ub85d \ud558\ub294 \ud6a8\uacfc\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4. \uacfc\uac70\uc5d0\ub3c4 \uc0ac\uc804 \uc608\uace0\ub41c \uae34\ucd95\uc744 \uc55e\ub450\uace0 \uba87 \uc8fc \ub3d9\uc548 SGD(\uc2f1\uac00\ud3ec\ub974\ub2ec\ub7ec)\uac00 \uac15\ud574\uc9c4 \uc0ac\ub840\uac00 \uc788\uc5c8\uace0, 2022\ub144 \uc815\ucc45 \ubcc0\ud654 \ub54c\ub3c4 \uadf8\ub7ac\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc9c0\uae08\ub3c4 \uac19\uc740 \uae30\ud68c\uac00 \uc5f4\ub9b4 \uc218 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \ub73b\ud55c\ub2e4.\n\n\ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354\uc5d0\uac8c\ub294 \uc55e\uc73c\ub85c \uba87 \uc8fc \ub3d9\uc548 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc131\uc774 \ube44\uad50\uc801 \ubd84\uba85\ud574\uc9c4\ub2e4. USD(\ubbf8\uad6d\ub2ec\ub7ec) \ub300\ube44 SGD \uac15\uc138\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488(derivatives: \uae30\ucd08\uc790\uc0b0 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \uac00\uce58\uac00 \ubcc0\ud558\ub294 \uae08\uc735\uc0c1\ud488)\uc778 \ucf5c\uc635\uc158(call option: \uc815\ud574\uc9c4 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \uc0b4 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uad8c\ub9ac) \uac19\uc740 \uc218\ub2e8\uc744 \uc4f0\ub294 \uac83\uc774 \ud569\ub9ac\uc801\uc77c \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uc815\ucc45 \uc870\uc815\uc744 \ub110\ub9ac \uc608\uc0c1\ud558\uba74 \ub0b4\uc7ac\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131(implied volatility: \uc635\uc158 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ubc18\uc601\ub41c \u2018\uc55e\uc73c\ub85c\uc758 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uae30\ub300\uce58\u2019)\uc774 \uc624\ub97c \uc218 \uc788\uc5b4, \uc635\uc158\uc744 \uc0ac\uc11c \ubcf4\uc720\ud558\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5(long-option: \uc635\uc158 \ub9e4\uc218 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158)\uc5d0 \uc720\ub9ac\ud560 \uc218\ub3c4 \uc788\ub2e4.\n\n\ub2e4\ub9cc \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \uc774\ub97c \uc7a5\uae30\uac04\uc758 \uae34\ucd95 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074(cycle: \uc5ec\ub7ec \ucc28\ub840 \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c0\ub294 \ud750\ub984)\uc774 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c, \ud1b5\ud654\ub97c \uae30\ucd08\uc801 \uade0\ud615(fundamental equilibrium: \uacbd\uc81c \uc5ec\uac74\uc5d0 \ube44\ucdb0 \uc801\uc815\ud558\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf4\ub294 \uc218\uc900)\uc73c\ub85c \ub418\ub3cc\ub9ac\uae30 \uc704\ud55c \u2018\ud55c \ubc88\uc758 \uc870\uc815\u2019\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf8\ub2e4. \ub530\ub77c\uc11c \ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488 \uc804\ub7b5\uc740 \ub9cc\uae30(expiration: \uc635\uc158\u00b7\uc120\ubb3c \ub4f1 \uacc4\uc57d\uc774 \ub05d\ub098\ub294 \ub0a0\uc9dc)\ub97c 4\uc6d4 \uc815\ucc45 \uacb0\uc815 \ubb34\ub835\uc774\ub098 \uc9c1\ud6c4\ub85c \ub450\ub294 \ud3b8\uc774 \ud569\ub9ac\uc801\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \ud1b5\ud654\uac00 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc77c \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud070 \uad6c\uac04\uc744 \ub178\ub9ac\uba74\uc11c, \uc774\ud6c4 MAS\uac00 \uc77c\uc2dc \uc815\uc9c0(pause: \ucd94\uac00 \uc870\uc815\uc744 \uba48\ucda4)\ub97c \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud560 \ub54c\uc758 \uc704\ud5d8\uc744 \uc904\uc77c \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.\n\n<b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">\uc2e4\uacc4\uc88c VT Markets \uacc4\uc815\uc744 \uac1c\uc124<\/a>\ud558\uace0\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login\">\uc9c0\uae08 \uac70\ub798\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791<\/a>\ud558\uc138\uc694. <\/b>\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph-->\n<p><b>VT Markets \ub77c\uc774\ube0c \uacc4\uc815\uc744 \ub9cc\ub4e4\uace0 \uc9c0\uae08 \ubc14\ub85c <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/trade-now\/\">\uac70\ub798<\/a>\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uc138\uc694.<\/b><\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\uc2f1\uac00\ud3ec\ub974 GDP \uc0c1\ud5a5\uc73c\ub85c 2025 \uc131\uc7a5\ub960 5.0%\u2026UOB\ub294 2026 \uc804\ub9dd 3.6%\ub85c \uc0c1\ud5a5, MTI\ub3c4 \ubc94\uc704 \ud655\ub300. \uc120\ud589\uc9c0\uc218\u00b7PMI\u00b7\uc218\ucd9c \ud638\uc870\ub85c 1Q26 \ud0c4\ub825, 4\uc6d4 MAS S$NEER \uae30\uc6b8\uae30 \uc778\uc0c1 \uac00\ub2a5. &#8211; vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-37989","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37989","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/62"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=37989"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37989\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=37989"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=37989"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=37989"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}