{"id":37949,"date":"2026-02-10T18:57:45","date_gmt":"2026-02-10T18:57:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/%eb%9d%bc%eb%b3%b4%eb%b1%85%ed%81%ac%ec%9d%98-%eb%a7%88%ec%9d%b4%ed%81%b4-%ec%97%90%eb%b8%8c%eb%a6%ac%eb%8a%94-%ed%8a%b8%eb%9f%bc%ed%94%84%ea%b0%80-%eb%af%b8%ea%b5%ad-%ec%84%b1%ec%9e%a5%eb%a5%a0-15\/"},"modified":"2026-02-10T18:57:45","modified_gmt":"2026-02-10T18:57:45","slug":"%eb%9d%bc%eb%b3%b4%eb%b1%85%ed%81%ac%ec%9d%98-%eb%a7%88%ec%9d%b4%ed%81%b4-%ec%97%90%eb%b8%8c%eb%a6%ac%eb%8a%94-%ed%8a%b8%eb%9f%bc%ed%94%84%ea%b0%80-%eb%af%b8%ea%b5%ad-%ec%84%b1%ec%9e%a5%eb%a5%a0-15","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/%eb%9d%bc%eb%b3%b4%eb%b1%85%ed%81%ac%ec%9d%98-%eb%a7%88%ec%9d%b4%ed%81%b4-%ec%97%90%eb%b8%8c%eb%a6%ac%eb%8a%94-%ed%8a%b8%eb%9f%bc%ed%94%84%ea%b0%80-%eb%af%b8%ea%b5%ad-%ec%84%b1%ec%9e%a5%eb%a5%a0-15\/","title":{"rendered":"\ub77c\ubcf4\ubc45\ud06c\uc758 \ub9c8\uc774\ud074 \uc5d0\ube0c\ub9ac\ub294 \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504\uac00 \ubbf8\uad6d \uc131\uc7a5\ub960 15%\ub97c \ub0b4\uc138\uc6b0\uba70 \uacbd\uae30 \uacfc\uc5f4 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud588\uace0, \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \uba54\uc2dc\uc9c0 \uc18d\uc5d0\uc11c \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc720\uc785\uc774 \ub298\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ub9d0\ud55c\ub2e4."},"content":{"rendered":"\ub77c\ubcf4\ubc45\ud06c(Rabobank) \ubcf4\uace0\uc11c\ub294 \ub3c4\ub110\ub4dc \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504\uac00 \ubbf8\ub798\uc758 \uc5f0\uc900(Fed, \ubbf8\uad6d \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589) \uc758\uc7a5 \ud6c4\ubcf4\ub85c \uac70\ub860\ub418\ub294 \ucf00\ube48 \uc6cc\uc2dc(Kevin Warsh)\uac00 \u201c\uc790\uae30 \ud560 \uc77c\uc744 \ud558\uba74\u201d \ubbf8\uad6d \uc131\uc7a5\ub960\uc774 15% \ub610\ub294 \uadf8 \uc774\uc0c1\uc774 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ub9d0\ud588\ub2e4\uace0 \uc778\uc6a9\ud588\ub2e4. \ubcf4\uace0\uc11c\ub294 \uc774 15%\uac00 \uc5f0\uac04 \uc131\uc7a5\ub960\uc744 \ub73b\ud558\ub294\uc9c0, \ub300\ud1b5\ub839 \uc784\uae30 \ub0a8\uc740 \uc57d 2\ub144 \ubc18 \ub3d9\uc548\uc758 \ub204\uc801 \uc131\uc7a5\ub960\uc744 \ub73b\ud558\ub294\uc9c0, \ub610\ub294 \uba85\ubaa9(\ubb3c\uac00\ub97c \ud3ec\ud568\ud55c) \uc131\uc7a5\ub960\uc778\uc9c0 \uc2e4\uc9c8(\ubb3c\uac00 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ube80) \uc131\uc7a5\ub960\uc778\uc9c0\uac00 \ubd88\ubd84\uba85\ud558\ub2e4\uace0 \ud588\ub2e4.\n\n\ubcf4\uace0\uc11c\ub294 \uc774\ub97c \uc815\ucc45\uc774 \ub354 \ube60\ub978 \uc131\uc7a5\uc744 \uac00\ub2a5\ud558\uac8c \ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uae30\ub300\uc640 \uc5f0\uacb0\ud588\uace0, \ud574\uc678 \uc790\uae08\uc774 \uacc4\uc18d \ubbf8\uad6d\uc73c\ub85c \ub4e4\uc5b4\uc624\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \ud30c\uc774\ub0b8\uc15c \ud0c0\uc784\uc2a4(Financial Times) \ubcf4\ub3c4\ub97c \uc5b8\uae09\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7f0 \ud658\uacbd\uc774 \ubbf8\uad6d \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc5d0 \uc6b0\ud638\uc801\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \uc124\uba85\ud588\ub2e4.\n\n

\uc815\ucc45 \uc555\ubc15\uacfc \uc131\uc7a5 \uae30\ub300<\/h3>\n\ub610\ud55c \ubbf8\uad6d\uc774 \uace7 \ub098\uc62c \ubc18\ub3c4\uccb4 \uad00\uc138(\uc218\uc785\ud488\uc5d0 \ubd99\ub294 \uc138\uae08)\uc5d0\uc11c \ub300\ud615 \uae30\uc220 \uae30\uc5c5 \uc77c\ubd80\ub97c \uba74\uc81c\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \ubcf4\ub3c4\ub3c4 \uc5b8\uae09\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7f0 \uba74\uc81c\ub294 TSMC(\ub300\ub9cc \ubc18\ub3c4\uccb4 \uc81c\uc870\uc0ac)\uac00 \ud558\uaca0\ub2e4\uace0 \uc57d\uc18d\ud558\ub294 \ud574\uc678 \uc9c1\uc811\ud22c\uc790(FDI, \uacf5\uc7a5\u00b7\uc124\ube44 \ub4f1\uc744 \uc138\uc6cc \uc9c1\uc811 \ud22c\uc790\ud558\ub294 \uac83)\uc640 \uc5f0\uacc4\ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.\n\n\ubcf4\uace0\uc11c\ub294 \uae30\uc5c5\ub4e4\uc758 AI(\uc778\uacf5\uc9c0\ub2a5) \ub3c4\uc785\uc774 \ub298\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70 \uc0dd\uc0b0\uc131(\uac19\uc740 \uc2dc\uac04\u00b7\ube44\uc6a9\uc73c\ub85c \ub354 \ub9ce\uc774 \ub9cc\ub4e4\uc5b4\ub0b4\ub294 \ub2a5\ub825)\uc744 \ub04c\uc5b4\uc62c\ub9b4 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ud588\ub2e4. \ub2e4\ub9cc AI\uc758 \uc0ac\uc6a9 \ubc29\uc2dd\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \uc601\ud5a5\uc740 \ub2ec\ub77c\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ub367\ubd99\uc600\ub2e4. \ub2e8\uae30 \uc9c0\ud45c\ub85c\ub294 \ubbf8\uad6d \uc18c\ub9e4\ud310\ub9e4(\uc18c\ube44\uc790\uac00 \uc2e4\uc81c\ub85c \uc5bc\ub9c8\ub098 \uc0c0\ub294\uc9c0 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc8fc\ub294 \ud1b5\uacc4)\uc640 NFIB \uc18c\uae30\uc5c5 \uc124\ubb38(NFIB\ub294 \ubbf8\uad6d \uc18c\uae30\uc5c5 \ub2e8\uccb4\ub85c, \uacbd\uae30 \uccb4\uac10\uacfc \uace0\uc6a9\u00b7\ud22c\uc790 \uacc4\ud68d \ub4f1\uc744 \uc870\uc0ac)\uc744 \uc911\uc694\ud55c \ubc1c\ud45c\ub85c \uc9c0\ubaa9\ud588\ub2e4.\n\n\uc6b0\ub9ac\uac00 \ubc1b\ub294 \ud575\uc2ec \uc2e0\ud638\ub294 \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \u2018\uacbd\uae30\ub97c \ub728\uac81\uac8c\u2019 \uc6b4\uc601\ud558\ub77c\ub294 \uc555\ubc15\uc774\ub2e4. \uc989, \uc9c0\ub09c\ub2ec 3.2% \uc218\uc900\ucc98\ub7fc \ubb3c\uac00\uc0c1\uc2b9\ub960(\uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158)\uc774 \uc27d\uac8c \ub0b4\ub824\uc624\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub354\ub77c\ub3c4 \uc131\uc7a5\uc5d0 \ub354 \uc6b0\uc120\uc21c\uc704\ub97c \ub450\ub77c\ub294 \ub73b\uc774\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7f0 \uc774\uc57c\uae30\ub294 2025\ub144 4\ubd84\uae30\uc5d0 \ub098\uc628 \uc5f0\uc728 \uae30\uc900 GDP(\uad6d\ub0b4\ucd1d\uc0dd\uc0b0, \ud55c \ub098\ub77c\uc758 \uc804\uccb4 \uc0dd\uc0b0 \uaddc\ubaa8) \uc131\uc7a5\ub960 3.5%\uac00 \ub4b7\ubc1b\uce68\ud55c\ub2e4. \ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488(derivatives, \uae30\ucd08\uc790\uc0b0 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \uac00\uce58\uac00 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc774\ub294 \uc0c1\ud488) \uc804\ub7b5\uc740 \uc774\uc81c \uae08\ub9ac\uc5d0\uc11c \uc131\uc7a5 \ucabd\uc5d0 \uc720\ub9ac\ud558\uace0 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \ub354 \ud070 \ud658\uacbd\uc5d0 \ub9de\ucd94\ub294 \ud3b8\uc774 \ub0ab\ub2e4. \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc740 \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \ud754\ub4e4\ub9ac\ub294 \uc815\ub3c4\ub97c \ub73b\ud55c\ub2e4.\n\n\uc815\uce58\uc801 \uc7a1\uc74c\uc774 \uc788\ub354\ub77c\ub3c4 \ud574\uc678 \ud22c\uc790\uc790\ub4e4\uc774 \ubbf8\uad6d\uc5d0 \uacc4\uc18d \ub3c8\uc744 \ub123\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf8\ub2e4. \uc774 \ud750\ub984\uc740 \u2018Bash All Day, Buy All Night\u2019(\ub0ae\uc5d0\ub294 \ube44\ud310\ud574\ub3c4 \ubc24\uc5d0\ub294 \uacb0\uad6d \uc0ac\ub4e4\uc778\ub2e4)\ub77c\ub294 \ub9d0\ub85c \ubd88\ub9b0\ub2e4. 2025\ub144 \ub9d0 \uc7ac\ubb34\ubd80(Treasury, \ubbf8\uad6d \uc7ac\ubb34\ubd80) \uc790\ub8cc\ub294 \ud574\uc678\uc758 \ubbf8\uad6d \uc99d\uad8c \ubcf4\uc720\uc561\uc774 \ucd5c\uace0\uce58\ub97c \uc0c8\ub85c \uc37c\ub2e4\uace0 \ud655\uc778\ud588\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7f0 \uc790\uae08 \uc720\uc785\uc740 \ubbf8\uad6d \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub97c \uc0ac\uc11c \ub4e4\uace0 \uac00\ub294 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158(\ub871 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158)\uc5d0 \ud798\uc744 \uc2e4\uc5b4\uc8fc\uba70, \ub2e4\ub978 \uc8fc\uc694 \ud1b5\ud654 \ub300\ube44 \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc778\ub371\uc2a4(dollar index, \ub2ec\ub7ec \uac00\uce58\ub97c \uc5ec\ub7ec \ud1b5\ud654\uc5d0 \ube44\uad50\ud55c \uc9c0\uc218) \ucf5c\uc635\uc158(\uc815\ud574\uc9c4 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \uc0b4 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uad8c\ub9ac)\uc774 \ub9e4\ub825\uc801\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \ubcf8\ub2e4.\n\n

\uc2dc\uc7a5 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc154\ub2dd\uacfc \ub2e8\uae30 \ucd09\ub9e4<\/h3>\n\uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 AI \ubd90\uc774 \uc774\uc81c \uc2e4\uc81c \uc0dd\uc0b0\uc131 \uac1c\uc120\uc73c\ub85c \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c0\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf4\uba70, \uc774\ub294 \ubbf8\uad6d \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c \ub354 \ub192\uc740 \ubc38\ub958\uc5d0\uc774\uc158(valuation, \uc8fc\uac00 \uc218\uc900\uc774 \uc774\uc775\u00b7\ud604\uae08\ud750\ub984 \ub300\ube44 \uc5bc\ub9c8\ub098 \ube44\uc2fc\uc9c0\/\ub192\uc740\uc9c0)\uc744 \uc815\ub2f9\ud654\ud55c\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf8\ub2e4. \uc774 \ud750\ub984\uc740 2025\ub144 \ub0b4\ub0b4 \ub098\uc2a4\ub2e5 100(Nasdaq 100, \ubbf8\uad6d \ub300\ud615 \uae30\uc220\uc8fc \uc911\uc2ec \uc9c0\uc218)\uc758 30% \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc744 \uc774\ub04c\uc5c8\ub2e4. \ube44\uc6a9\uc744 \uad00\ub9ac\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \ucf5c \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc(call spread, \ucf5c\uc635\uc158\uc744 \uc0ac\uace0 \ub354 \ub192\uc740 \ud589\uc0ac\uac00\uc758 \ucf5c\uc635\uc158\uc744 \ud568\uaed8 \ud314\uc544 \ube44\uc6a9\uc744 \uc904\uc774\ub294 \ubc29\uc2dd) \uac19\uc740 \uc804\ub7b5\uc744 \ud65c\uc6a9\ud558\uba74\uc11c \ubbf8\uad6d \uc8fc\uc2dd \uc9c0\uc218\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uac15\uc138 \uc804\ub9dd\uc744 \uc774\uc5b4\uac00\ub294 \uac83\uc774 \ud0c0\ub2f9\ud574 \ubcf4\uc778\ub2e4.\n\n\ub610\ud55c \ud589\uc815\ubd80\uac00 \uc0b0\uc5c5\uc815\ucc45(\uc815\ubd80\uac00 \ud2b9\uc815 \uc0b0\uc5c5\uc744 \ud0a4\uc6b0\uac70\ub098 \ubcf4\ud638\ud558\ub294 \uc815\ucc45)\uc744 \uc2e4\uc6a9\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc6b4\uc601\ud558\ub294 \uc810\u2014\uc608\ub97c \ub4e4\uc5b4 \ud22c\uc790\uc640 \ub9de\ubc14\uafb8\ub294 \ubc29\uc2dd\uc73c\ub85c \ube45\ud14c\ud06c(Big Tech, \ub300\ud615 \uae30\uc220 \uae30\uc5c5)\ub97c \uc77c\ubd80 \ubc18\ub3c4\uccb4 \uad00\uc138\uc5d0\uc11c \uc81c\uc678\ud558\ub294 \uc810\u2014\uc740 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uaf2c\ub9ac\uc704\ud5d8(tail risk, \ub4dc\ubb3c\uc9c0\ub9cc \ud06c\uac8c \ud130\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \ud070 \uc190\uc2e4 \uc704\ud5d8)\uc744 \uc904\uc778\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7f0 \uc120\ud0dd\uc801 \uc2e0(\u65b0)\uc911\uc0c1\uc8fc\uc758(neo-mercantilism, \uad6d\uac00\uac00 \uc0b0\uc5c5\uc744 \ubcf4\ud638\u00b7\uc9c0\uc6d0\ud558\uba70 \ubb34\uc5ed\uc5d0\uc11c \uc774\uc775\uc744 \ucc59\uae30\ub824\ub294 \uc815\ucc45 \uc131\ud5a5)\ub294 \ubc18\ub3c4\uccb4 \uac19\uc740 \ud575\uc2ec \uc5c5\uc885\uc5d0 \uc548\uc815\uc801\uc778 \ubc14\ud0d5\uc744 \uc900\ub2e4. \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \uc774\ub97c \uae30\uc220\uc8fc \uc911\uc2ec ETF(\uc0c1\uc7a5\uc9c0\uc218\ud380\ub4dc, \uc8fc\uc2dd\ucc98\ub7fc \uac70\ub798\ub418\ub294 \ud380\ub4dc)\uc5d0\uc11c \uc678\uac00\uaca9(out-of-the-money, \uc9c0\uae08 \uac00\uaca9 \uae30\uc900\uc73c\ub85c \ub2f9\uc7a5 \uc774\uc775\uc774 \ub098\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294) \ud48b\uc635\uc158(\uc815\ud574\uc9c4 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ud314 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uad8c\ub9ac)\uc744 \ub9e4\ub3c4\ud558\ub294 \uc2e0\ud638\ub85c \ubcfc \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubcf8\ub2e4.\n\n\ub2e8\uae30\uc801\uc73c\ub85c\ub294 \uace7 \ubc1c\ud45c\ub420 \uc18c\ub9e4\ud310\ub9e4\uc640 NFIB \uc18c\uae30\uc5c5 \uc124\ubb38 \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub97c \ub9e4\uc6b0 \uc8fc\uc758 \uae4a\uac8c \ubcf4\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4. \uc218\uce58\uac00 \uac15\ud558\uba74 \u2018\ub728\uac70\uc6b4 \uacbd\uae30\u2019 \uc774\uc57c\uae30\uac00 \uac15\ud654\ub418\uace0 \ub2e8\uae30 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \ucee4\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4. \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354\ub294 \ub2e8\uae30 \ub9cc\uae30 \uc635\uc158(short-dated options, \ub9cc\uae30\uac00 \uac00\uae4c\uc6b4 \uc635\uc158)\uc73c\ub85c \uc774 \uc9c0\ud45c\uac00 \uc608\uc0c1\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc88b\uac8c \ub098\uc62c \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc5d0 \ubca0\ud305\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\uc548\uc744 \uace0\ub824\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.\n\n\n

VT Markets \ub77c\uc774\ube0c \uacc4\uc815\uc744 \ub9cc\ub4e4\uace0 \uc9c0\uae08 \ubc14\ub85c \uac70\ub798<\/a>\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uc138\uc694.<\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u201c\ubbf8\uad6d \uc131\uc7a5 15%?\u201d \ud2b8\ub7fc\ud504 \ubc1c\uc5b8\uc5d0 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ucd09\uac01. \ub77c\ubcf4\ubc45\ud06c\ub294 \ud1b5\ud654\uc644\ud654 \uc555\ubc15, \uc678\uad6d\uc778 \uc790\uae08\uc720\uc785, AI \uc0dd\uc0b0\uc131, \uad00\uc138 \uc608\uc678 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc73c\ub85c \ub2ec\ub7ec\u00b7\uc8fc\uc2dd \uac15\uc138\uc640 \uae08\ub9ac \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \ud655\ub300\ub97c \uc804\ub9dd. – vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-37949","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37949","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/62"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=37949"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37949\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=37949"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=37949"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=37949"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}