{"id":33403,"date":"2025-12-04T21:08:59","date_gmt":"2025-12-04T21:08:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/%eb%a1%9c%ec%9d%b4%ed%84%b0-%ec%84%a4%eb%ac%b8%ec%a1%b0%ec%82%ac-%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80%ec%9d%98-25bp-%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-%ec%9d%b8%ed%95%98-%ea%b8%b0%eb%8c%80-%ed%99%95%ec%82%b0\/"},"modified":"2025-12-04T21:08:59","modified_gmt":"2025-12-04T21:08:59","slug":"%eb%a1%9c%ec%9d%b4%ed%84%b0-%ec%84%a4%eb%ac%b8%ec%a1%b0%ec%82%ac-%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80%ec%9d%98-25bp-%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-%ec%9d%b8%ed%95%98-%ea%b8%b0%eb%8c%80-%ed%99%95%ec%82%b0","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/%eb%a1%9c%ec%9d%b4%ed%84%b0-%ec%84%a4%eb%ac%b8%ec%a1%b0%ec%82%ac-%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80%ec%9d%98-25bp-%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-%ec%9d%b8%ed%95%98-%ea%b8%b0%eb%8c%80-%ed%99%95%ec%82%b0\/","title":{"rendered":"\ub85c\uc774\ud130 \uc124\ubb38\uc870\uc0ac, \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 25bp \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uae30\ub300 \ud655\uc0b0"},"content":{"rendered":"\ub85c\uc774\ud130 \uc5ec\ub860 \uc870\uc0ac\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74, \uc5f0\ubc29\uc900\ube44\uc81c\ub3c4(Fed)\ub294 12\uc6d4 10\uc77c \ud68c\uc758\uc5d0\uc11c \uae30\uc900 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c 25\ubca0\uc774\uc2dc\uc2a4 \ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8 \uc778\ud558\ud574 3.50%-3.75% \ubc94\uc704\ub85c \uc870\uc815\ud560 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ub192\uc740 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ub098\ud0c0\ub0ac\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc870\uc0ac\ub41c 108\uba85\uc758 \uacbd\uc81c\ud559\uc790 \uc911 89\uba85\uc774 \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\ub97c \uc608\uc0c1\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n\ucd94\uac00 \uc804\ub9dd\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74 2026\ub144 1\ubd84\uae30\uc5d0\ub294 \uc5f0\ubc29 \uc900\ube44\uae08 \uae08\ub9ac\uac00 3.25%-3.50% \ubc94\uc704\ub85c \ub354\uc6b1 \ub0b4\ub824\uac08 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 100\uba85 \uc911 50\uba85\uc758 \uacbd\uc81c\ud559\uc790\uac00 \uc608\uc0c1\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uc7a0\uc7ac\uc801 \ubcc0\ud654\ub294 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubbf8\ucce4\uc73c\uba70, \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc9c0\uc218\ub294 5\uc77c \uc5f0\uc18d \ud558\ub77d\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ubd88\uad6c\ud558\uace0 0.02% \uc18c\ud3ed \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n<h3>\ubbf8\uad6d \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc758 \uc131\uacfc<\/h3>\n\n\ubbf8\uad6d \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub294 \uc8fc\uc694 \ud1b5\ud654 \ub300\ube44 \ub192\uc740 \uc131\uacfc\ub97c \ubcf4\uc5ec \ub274\uc9c8\ub79c\ub4dc \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \uac00\uc7a5 \uac15\uc138\ub97c \ubcf4\uc600\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub0a0 \uc77c\ubcf8 \uc5d4\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 0.09%, \ud638\uc8fc \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 0.10% \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uce90\ub098\ub2e4 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574\uc11c\ub294 0.15% \ud558\ub77d\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n\uae30\ud0c0 \ubcc0\ud654\ub85c\ub294 \uc601\uad6d \ud30c\uc6b4\ub4dc \ubc0f \uc2a4\uc704\uc2a4 \ud504\ub791\uacfc\uc758 0.00% \ubcc0\ud654\uc640 \uc720\ub85c\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 0.01%\uc758 \ubbf8\uc138\ud55c \ud558\ub77d\uc774 \ud3ec\ud568\ub418\uc5c8\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774 \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub294 \uc7a0\uc7ac\uc801\uc778 \uc815\ucc45 \ubcc0\ud654 \uc18d\uc5d0\uc11c \uc678\ud658 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \ud604\uc7ac \ub3d9\ud5a5\uc744 \uc124\uba85\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n12\uc6d4 10\uc77c 25\ubca0\uc774\uc2dc\uc2a4 \ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\uac00 \ub110\ub9ac \uc608\uc0c1\ub418\uace0 \uc788\uc5b4, \uc774 \uc0ac\uac74\uc740 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0 \uc774\ubbf8 \ubc18\uc601\ub41c \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf4\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. CME FedWatch \ub3c4\uad6c\ub294 \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc784\uc758 \ud655\ub960\uc774 consistently 90% \uc774\uc0c1\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uac83\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc90d\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub530\ub77c\uc11c \uc6b0\ub9ac\uc758 \ucd08\uc810\uc740 \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uc9c0\uce68\uc73c\ub85c \uc774\ub3d9\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud575\uc2ec\uc740 \uacf5\uc2dd \uc131\uba85\uc774 \ub354 \ub9ce\uc740 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\uac00 \uace7 \uc788\uc744 \uac83\uc778\uc9c0 \uc2e0\ud638\ub97c \uc904\uc9c0 \uc5ec\ubd80\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n<h3>\uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubc18\uc751 \ubc0f \uc804\ub7b5<\/h3>\n\n\ubbf8\uad6d \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc758 \ucd5c\uadfc 5\uc77c \uc5f0\uc18d \ud558\ub77d\uc740 \uac70\ub798\uc790\ub4e4\uc774 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\ub97c \uc608\uc0c1\ud558\uba70 \ud1b5\ud654\ub97c \ub9e4\ub3c4\ud574\uc654\uc74c\uc744 \ud655\uc778\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. 2019\ub144\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ube44\uc2b7\ud55c \ub3d9\ud5a5\uc774 \ubcf4\uc600\uc73c\uba70, \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 &#8216;\uc911\uac04 \uc8fc\uae30 \uc870\uc815&#8217;\uc744 \uc2dc\uc791\ud588\uc744 \ub54c \ub2ec\ub7ec\uac00 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uba87 \ub2ec\uac04 \uc57d\uc138\ub97c \ubcf4\uc600\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \ub9e4\ud30c\uc801\uc778 \ub180\ub77c\uc6c0\uc744 \uc8fc\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294 \uc774\uc0c1 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc758 \uc800\ud56d\ub825\uc774 \ud558\ub77d\ud568\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \n\n2025\ub144 11\uc6d4\uc758 \ucd5c\uadfc \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74 \ud575\uc2ec PCE \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc774 2.8%\ub85c \ub454\ud654\ub418\uc5c8\uace0 \ube44\ub18d\uc5c5 \uace0\uc6a9 \uc99d\uac00\uc728\uc774 \ub290\ub824\uc9d0\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \ucd94\uac00 \uc644\ud654\ub97c \uc704\ud55c \uadfc\uac70\uac00 \uc313\uc774\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 2026\ub144 1\ubd84\uae30\uc5d0 \ub2e4\uc2dc \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc778\ud558\ud560 \uac83\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \uc608\uc0c1\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 2026\ub144 3\uc6d4 \ud68c\uc758\uc640 \uad00\ub828\ub41c \uc120\ubb3c \uacc4\uc57d\uc774 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc2ec\ub9ac\ub97c \uce21\uc815\ud558\ub294 \uc8fc\uc694 \uc9c0\uc810\uc774 \ub429\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n\uc8fc\uc2dd \ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc774 \uc804\ub9dd\uc740 \uc9c0\uc9c0\uc801\uc774\uba70, \uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \ub0ae\uc544\uc9c0\uba74 \uc8fc\uc2dd \uac00\uce58\uac00 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud558\ub294 \uacbd\ud5a5\uc774 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. S&#038;P 500 \uc9c0\uc218\ub294 \uc9c0\ub09c \ub2ec\uc5d0 \uc774\ubbf8 3% \uc774\uc0c1 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud588\uc73c\uba70, \uc774\ub294 \uc774 \uc815\ucc45 \ubcc0\ud654\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc120\ud589 \ubc18\uc751\uc73c\ub85c \ubcfc \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \uc608\uc0c1\ub300\ub85c \ud589\ub3d9\ud558\uace0 \ud070 surprises \uc5c6\uc774 \ubc1c\ud45c\ub97c \ud558\uba74 VIX\ub85c \uce21\uc815\ub418\ub294 \uc554\uc2dc\uc801 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \ud558\ub77d\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n\ud1b5\ud654 \uc635\uc158 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ud68c\uc758 \uc804\uc5d0 EUR\/USD \ubc0f USD\/JPY\uc640 \uac19\uc740 \uc8fc\uc694 \ud1b5\ud654 \uc30d\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ub192\uc740 \uc554\uc2dc\uc801 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \uad00\ucc30\ub418\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \ubc1c\ud45c \ud6c4 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \uac10\uc18c\ud560 \ub54c \uc774\uc775\uc744 \ubcf4\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5, \uc608\ub97c \ub4e4\uc5b4 \uc2a4\ud2b8\ub801\uae00 \ub9e4\ub3c4\uc5d0 \uae30\ud68c\ub97c \uc81c\uacf5\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc9c0\uc18d\uc801\uc778 \ub2ec\ub7ec \ud558\ub77d\uc744 \uc608\uc0c1\ud558\ub294 \uac70\ub798\uc790\ub4e4\uc740 \uc720\ub85c\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ucf5c \uc635\uc158\uc744 \uace0\ub824\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \ud2b9\ud788 \uc720\ub7fd \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc774 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc720\uc9c0\ud560 \uacbd\uc6b0 \ub354\uc6b1 \uadf8\ub7ec\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph-->\r\n<p><b>VT Markets \ub77c\uc774\ube0c \uacc4\uc815\uc744 \ub9cc\ub4e4\uace0 \uc9c0\uae08 \ubc14\ub85c <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/trade-now\/\">\uac70\ub798<\/a>\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uc138\uc694.<\/b><\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\ubbf8\uad6d \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 12\uc6d4 10\uc77c \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c 25bp \uc778\ud558\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ub418\uba70, \ub2ec\ub7ec\ud654\ub294 \uc57d\uc138\ub97c \ubcf4\uc774\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \ubc18\uc751\uacfc \uc804\ub7b5\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \uc0b4\ud3b4\ubcf4\uc138\uc694! &#8211; vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-33403","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 5.0.1.1 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"\ubbf8\uad6d \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 12\uc6d4 10\uc77c \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c 25bp \uc778\ud558\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ub418\uba70, \ub2ec\ub7ec\ud654\ub294 \uc57d\uc138\ub97c \ubcf4\uc774\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \ubc18\uc751\uacfc \uc804\ub7b5\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 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\uc778\ud558\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ub418\uba70, \ub2ec\ub7ec\ud654\ub294 \uc57d\uc138\ub97c \ubcf4\uc774\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \ubc18\uc751\uacfc \uc804\ub7b5\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \uc0b4\ud3b4\ubcf4\uc138\uc694! - vtmarkets.com\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/%eb%a1%9c%ec%9d%b4%ed%84%b0-%ec%84%a4%eb%ac%b8%ec%a1%b0%ec%82%ac-%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80%ec%9d%98-25bp-%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-%ec%9d%b8%ed%95%98-%ea%b8%b0%eb%8c%80-%ed%99%95%ec%82%b0\/\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-12-04T21:08:59+00:00\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-12-04T21:08:59+00:00\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/vtmarketsglobal\/\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@vtmarketsglobal\" \/>\n\t\t<meta 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