{"id":33123,"date":"2025-12-02T00:10:22","date_gmt":"2025-12-02T00:10:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/%ec%9c%a0%eb%a1%9c%eb%8a%94-%ed%98%bc%ed%95%a9%eb%90%9c-pmi-%eb%8d%b0%ec%9d%b4%ed%84%b0%ea%b0%80-%ea%b1%b0%eb%9e%98%ec%9e%90-%ea%b2%b0%ec%a0%95%ec%97%90-%ec%98%81%ed%96%a5%ec%9d%84-%eb%af%b8%ec%b9%98\/"},"modified":"2025-12-02T00:10:22","modified_gmt":"2025-12-02T00:10:22","slug":"%ec%9c%a0%eb%a1%9c%eb%8a%94-%ed%98%bc%ed%95%a9%eb%90%9c-pmi-%eb%8d%b0%ec%9d%b4%ed%84%b0%ea%b0%80-%ea%b1%b0%eb%9e%98%ec%9e%90-%ea%b2%b0%ec%a0%95%ec%97%90-%ec%98%81%ed%96%a5%ec%9d%84-%eb%af%b8%ec%b9%98","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/%ec%9c%a0%eb%a1%9c%eb%8a%94-%ed%98%bc%ed%95%a9%eb%90%9c-pmi-%eb%8d%b0%ec%9d%b4%ed%84%b0%ea%b0%80-%ea%b1%b0%eb%9e%98%ec%9e%90-%ea%b2%b0%ec%a0%95%ec%97%90-%ec%98%81%ed%96%a5%ec%9d%84-%eb%af%b8%ec%b9%98\/","title":{"rendered":"\uc720\ub85c\ub294 \ud63c\ud569\ub41c PMI \ub370\uc774\ud130\uac00 \uac70\ub798\uc790 \uacb0\uc815\uc5d0 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubbf8\uce58\uba70 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \uc548\uc815\uc138\ub97c \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4."},"content":{"rendered":"EUR\/USD\ub294 \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354\ub4e4\uc774 \ubbf8\uad6d\uacfc \uc720\ub85c\uc874\uc758 \ud63c\ud569\ub41c PMI \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub97c \ud3c9\uac00\ud558\uba74\uc11c 2\uc8fc \ucd5c\uace0\uc810 \uadfc\ucc98\uc5d0\uc11c \uc548\uc815\uc138\ub97c \ubcf4\uc774\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. ISM \uc81c\uc870\uc5c5 PMI\ub294 48.2\ub85c \ub5a8\uc5b4\uc838 \ub354 \uae4a\uc740 \ucd95\uc18c\ub97c \ub098\ud0c0\ub0b4\uace0 \uc788\ub294 \ubc18\uba74, S&P \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c PMI\ub294 52.2\ub85c \uc62c\ub77c \ud655\uc7a5\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n\ubbf8\uad6d \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub294 \ucd5c\uadfc \uc800\uc810\uc5d0\uc11c \uc57d\uac04 \ud68c\ubcf5\ub418\uc5c8\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 12\uc6d4 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uc608\uc0c1\uc73c\ub85c \uc778\ud574 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \uc555\ubc15\uc744 \ubc1b\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ubbf8\uad6d \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc9c0\uc218(DXY)\ub294 PMI \uc218\uce58 \ud558\ub77d\uc758 \uc601\ud5a5\uc73c\ub85c 99.01 \uadfc\ucc98\uc758 \uc800\uc810\uc5d0 \ub3c4\ub2ec\ud55c \ud6c4 \ud604\uc7ac 99.20 \uadfc\ucc98\uc5d0\uc11c \uac70\ub798\ub418\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n

\uc911\uc694\ud55c PMI \ubcc0\ud654<\/h3> \nISM \uc81c\uc870\uc5c5 PMI\uc758 48.2\ub85c\uc758 \ud558\ub77d\uc740 9\uac1c\uc6d4 \uc5f0\uc18d \ucd95\uc18c\ub97c \uac15\uc870\ud558\uba70, \uc2e0\uaddc \uc8fc\ubb38 \uc9c0\uc218\uc640 \uace0\uc6a9 \uc9c0\uc218\ub3c4 \uac10\uc18c\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ubc18\uba74, S&P \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \ubbf8\uad6d \uc81c\uc870\uc5c5 PMI\ub294 \uc0dd\uc0b0 \ubc0f \uace0\uc6a9 \uc870\uac74\uc774 \uac1c\uc120\ub418\uace0 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \ubc18\uc601\ud558\uc5ec \ub354 \uae0d\uc815\uc801\uc778 \uc804\ub9dd\uc744 \ub098\ud0c0\ub0c5\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n\uc720\ub85c\uc874\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ucd5c\uc2e0 \uc81c\uc870\uc5c5 PMI\uac00 11\uc6d4\uc5d0 49.6\uc73c\ub85c \uac10\uc18c\ud558\uc5ec \uacc4\uc18d\ud574\uc11c \ubd80\uc9c4\ud55c \ubaa8\uc2b5\uc744 \ubcf4\uc774\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub2e4\uac00\uc624\ub294 \uc8fc\uc5d0\ub294 \uc720\ub85c\uc874\uacfc \ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 \uc911\uc694\ud55c \uacbd\uc81c \ub370\uc774\ud130\uac00 \ubc1c\ud45c\ub420 \uc608\uc815\uc774\uba70, \uc5ec\uae30\uc5d0\ub294 \uc720\ub85c\uc874 HICP \ucd08\uae30 \uc218\uce58\uc640 \ubbf8\uad6d ISM \uc11c\ube44\uc2a4 PMI \ubc0f PCE \ubb3c\uac00 \ubcf4\uace0\uc11c\uac00 \ud3ec\ud568\ub429\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n\ud604\uc7ac \ud1b5\ud654 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc784\uc740 \ubbf8\uad6d \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc758 \uc8fc\uc694 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \ud1b5\ud654\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uac15\ub3c4 \ubcc0\ud654\ub97c \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc90d\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud2b9\ud788, \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub294 \uc77c\ubcf8 \uc5d4\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub294 \ubc18\uba74, \uc720\ub85c\ub294 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc678\ud658 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \ub2e4\uac00\uc624\ub294 \uacbd\uc81c \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubc1b\uc744 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uc7a0\uc7ac\uc801\uc778 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc784\uc744 \uae30\ub2e4\ub9ac\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 12\uc6d4 10\uc77c \ud68c\uc758\uc5d0\uc11c \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc778\ud558\ud560 \uac83\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uac15\ud55c \uae30\ub300\uc5d0 \uc758\ud574 \ubbf8\uad6d \ub2ec\ub7ec\uac00 \ub354 \uc57d\uc138\ub97c \ubcf4\uc77c \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc804\ub9dd\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. EUR\/USD\uac00 1.1630 \uadfc\ucc98\uc758 2\uc8fc \ucd5c\uace0\uc810\uc73c\ub85c \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc5b4 \uc774 \ud1b5\ud654\uc30d\uc758 \uc800\ud56d \uacbd\ub85c\ub294 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf4\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \ubd84\uc704\uae30\ub294 \uacbd\uc81c \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc758 \ubd80\uc9c4\uc774 \uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \uc815\ucc45 \uc644\ud654\ub97c \uc9c0\uc9c0\ud560 \uac83\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \ubbff\uc74c\uc744 \uac15\ud654\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n

\uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc815\uc11c\uc640 \uc804\ub7b5<\/h3> \n\uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uacac\ud574\uc5d0 \uc2e0\ub8b0\uc131\uc744 \ub354\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 2025\ub144\uc758 \uc804\ubc18\uc801\uc778 \ucd94\uc138\ub97c \uc9c0\uc801\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. 11\uc6d4\uc758 \ube44\ub18d\uc5c5 \uace0\uc6a9 \ubcf4\uace0\uc11c\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 11\ub9cc \uac1c\uc758 \uc77c\uc790\ub9ac\uac00 \uc99d\uac00\ud558\uc5ec \uc608\uce21\uc744 \ubc11\ub3cc\uc558\uace0, \uac1c\uc778 \uc18c\ube44 \uc9c0\ucd9c(PCE) \ubb3c\uac00\ub294 \uc5f0\uac04 2.5%\ub85c \uc2dd\uc5b4, \uba87 \ub144 \uc804\uc758 \ub192\uc740 \uc218\uce58\uc5d0\uc11c \ud06c\uac8c \ub5a8\uc5b4\uc84c\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. CME FedWatch \ud234\uc740 \ud604\uc7ac \ub2e4\uc74c \uc8fc 25\ubca0\uc774\uc2dc\uc2a4\ud3ec\uc778\ud2b8 \uc778\ud558\uc758 85% \ud655\ub960\uc744 \ubc18\uc601\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc5b4 \uc774\ubc88 \uae08\uc694\uc77c\uc758 PCE \ubcf4\uace0\uc11c\uac00 \uc911\uc694\ud55c \uae30\uc900\uc810\uc774 \ub420 \uac83\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n\uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 \ud63c\ud569\ub41c PMI \uc2e0\ud638\ub294 \ubb34\uc2dc\ud560 \uc218 \uc5c6\ub294 \uc8fc\uc758 \uc0ac\ud56d\uc744 \ucd94\uac00\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. ISM \uc81c\uc870\uc5c5 \uc870\uc0ac\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 48.2\ub85c \ucd95\uc18c\uac00 \uc2ec\ud654\ub418\uace0 \uc788\ub294 \ubc18\uba74, S&P \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c PMI\ub294 52.2\ub85c \ud655\uc7a5\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud558\uc5ec \ud63c\ub780\uc2a4\ub7ec\uc6b4 \ubaa8\uc2b5\uc744 \ub9cc\ub4e4\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ubc88 \uc8fc\uc758 ISM \uc11c\ube44\uc2a4 PMI\ub294 \ub9e4\uc6b0 \uc911\uc694\ud558\uba70, \uac70\uae30\uc11c \uac15\ud55c \uc218\uce58\uac00 \ub098\uc624\uba74 \uad11\ubc94\uc704\ud55c \uacbd\uc81c \ub454\ud654\ub77c\ub294 \uc774\uc57c\uae30\ub97c \ub3c4\uc804\ud558\uac8c \ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uace0, \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc5d0 \uae09\uaca9\ud55c \ubc18\uc804\uc774 \uc77c\uc5b4\ub0a0 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n\ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488 \uac70\ub798\uc790\uc5d0\uac8c \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \ud658\uacbd\uc740 \uc5f0\uc900 \ud68c\uc758 \uc774\ud6c4 \ub9cc\ub8cc\ub418\ub294 EUR\/USD \ucf5c \uc635\uc158\uc744 \uad6c\ub9e4\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc774 \uc2e0\uc911\ud55c \uc804\ub7b5\uc774 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \ud6c4 \ub2ec\ub7ec\uac00 \ub354 \uc57d\ud574\uc9c8 \uacbd\uc6b0 \uc7a0\uc7ac\uc801\uc778 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc5d0 \ucc38\uc5ec\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0, \uc774\ubc88 \uc8fc\uc5d0 \uac15\ud55c \ub370\uc774\ud130\uac00 \ubc1c\ud45c\ub418\uc5b4 \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \uace0\uc815\ub420 \uacbd\uc6b0 \uc704\ud5d8\uc744 \uc81c\ud55c\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc0c1\ucda9\ub418\ub294 \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub294 \uc554\uc2dc\uc801 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc744 \ub192\uac8c \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc5b4, \uc815\uc758\ub41c \uc704\ud5d8 \uc804\ub7b5\uc774 \uc9c1\uc811\uc801\uc778 \ud604\ubb3c \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ub354 \ub9e4\ub825\uc801\uc774\uac8c \ub9cc\ub4e4\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\nLooking back, we’ve seen similar situations where the Fed begins an easing cycle despite some pockets of economic strength, such as the mid-cycle adjustment in 2019. The central bank tends to react to the trend in slowing growth and inflation, which seems to be the dominant theme right now. Therefore, we believe that any surprise strength in upcoming US data would likely only postpone, not cancel, the eventual rate cut.\n\nVT Markets \uacc4\uc815\uc744 \uac1c\uc124\ud558\uc138\uc694<\/a>\u00a0\uadf8\ub9ac\uace0\u00a0\uc9c0\uae08 \uac70\ub798\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uc138\uc694<\/a>.<\/b>\n\n\r\n

VT Markets \ub77c\uc774\ube0c \uacc4\uc815\uc744 \ub9cc\ub4e4\uace0 \uc9c0\uae08 \ubc14\ub85c \uac70\ub798<\/a>\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uc138\uc694.<\/b><\/p>\r\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

EUR\/USD\ub294 \ubbf8\uad6d\uacfc \uc720\ub85c\uc874\uc758 \ud63c\ud569\ub41c PMI \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub97c \ud3c9\uac00\ud558\uba70 2\uc8fc \ucd5c\uace0\uce58 \uadfc\ucc98\uc5d0\uc11c \uc548\uc815\uc138\ub97c \ubcf4\uc774\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc57d\uc138 \uc608\uc0c1 \uc18d \uacbd\uae30 \uc9c0\ud45c\uac00 \uc8fc\ubaa9\ubc1b\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc9c0\uae08 \ubc14\ub85c \ud655\uc778\ud574 \ubcf4\uc138\uc694! – vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-33123","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33123","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=33123"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33123\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=33123"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=33123"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=33123"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}