{"id":20954,"date":"2025-09-18T06:29:08","date_gmt":"2025-09-18T06:29:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80%ec%9d%98-%ec%b5%9c%ea%b7%bc-%ea%b2%b0%ec%a0%95%ec%9d%80-%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-%ec%9d%b8%ed%95%98-%ea%b0%80%eb%8a%a5%ec%84%b1%ec%9d%84-%eb%82%98%ed%83%80%eb%82%b4%ec%a7%80%eb%a7%8c\/"},"modified":"2025-09-18T06:29:08","modified_gmt":"2025-09-18T06:29:08","slug":"%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80%ec%9d%98-%ec%b5%9c%ea%b7%bc-%ea%b2%b0%ec%a0%95%ec%9d%80-%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-%ec%9d%b8%ed%95%98-%ea%b0%80%eb%8a%a5%ec%84%b1%ec%9d%84-%eb%82%98%ed%83%80%eb%82%b4%ec%a7%80%eb%a7%8c","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/%ec%97%b0%ec%a4%80%ec%9d%98-%ec%b5%9c%ea%b7%bc-%ea%b2%b0%ec%a0%95%ec%9d%80-%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-%ec%9d%b8%ed%95%98-%ea%b0%80%eb%8a%a5%ec%84%b1%ec%9d%84-%eb%82%98%ed%83%80%eb%82%b4%ec%a7%80%eb%a7%8c\/","title":{"rendered":"\uc5f0\uc900\uc758 \ucd5c\uadfc \uacb0\uc815\uc740 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \ub098\ud0c0\ub0b4\uc9c0\ub9cc, \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uacbd\uc81c \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc774 \ub0a8\uc544 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4."},"content":{"rendered":"\uc5f0\ubc29\uc900\ube44\uc81c\ub3c4(Fed)\ub294 \ucd5c\uadfc \ud68c\uc758 \ud6c4 \uae30\uc900\uae08\ub9ac\ub97c 25bp \uc778\ud558\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774 \uacb0\uc815\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \ud55c \uba85\uc758 \ubc18\ub300\uc790\uac00 \uc788\uc5c8\uc73c\uba70, \ubbf8\ub780(Miran)\uc740 50bp \uc778\ud558\ub97c \uc120\ud638\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. Fed \uc758\uc7a5 \ud30c\uc6d4(Powell)\uc740 \ub354 \ud070 \uc778\ud558\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uad11\ubc94\uc704\ud55c \ud569\uc758\uac00 \uc5c6\uc5c8\ub2e4\uace0 \ud655\uc778\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc5c5\ub370\uc774\ud2b8\ub41c \uc810 \ub3c4\ud45c(dot plot)\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 10\uba85\uc758 \uc704\uc6d0\uc774 \uc62c\ud574 25bp \uc778\ud558\ub97c \ucd5c\uc18c \ub450 \ucc28\ub840 \ub354 \ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ud558\ub294 \ubc18\uba74, 9\uba85\uc740 \ub2e8 \ud55c \ucc28\ub840 \ub354 \ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf4\uc558\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n\ubbf8\ub780\uc740 \ubaa8\ub4e0 \ud68c\uc758\uc5d0\uc11c 50bp \uc778\ud558\ub97c \uc120\ud638\ud558\uba70, 2025\ub144\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc608\uc0c1\uc740 2.875%\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. 2026\ub144\uc758 \uc911\uc704 \uc218\uce58\ub294 3.4%, 2027\ub144\uc758 \uc911\uc704 \uc218\uce58\ub294 3.1%\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud30c\uc6d4\uc740 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\ub97c &#8220;\uc704\ud5d8 \uad00\ub9ac&#8221; \uc870\uce58\ub85c \uc5b8\uae09\ud558\uba70, \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc6b0\ub824\uac00 \uac10\uc18c\ud558\ub294 \uac00\uc6b4\ub370 \ub178\ub3d9 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uc704\ud5d8\uc5d0 \uc8fc\ubaa9\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub294 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uacb0\uc815\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub97c \uae30\ubc18\uc73c\ub85c \ud55c \uc811\uadfc \ubc29\uc2dd\uc744 \uc7ac\ud655\uc778\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n<h3>\uc7a0\uc7ac\uc801 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558<\/h3>\nFed\ub294 10\uc6d4\uacfc 12\uc6d4\uc5d0 \ub610 \ub2e4\ub978 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\ub97c \ub2e8\ud589\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud30c\uc6d4\uc740 \ud604\uc7ac \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \uc644\uc804\ud788 \uc9c0\uc9c0\ubc1b\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc744 \uc218 \uc788\uc9c0\ub9cc \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \uace0\ub824\ub418\uace0 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \uc5b8\uae09\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \ub2e4\uac00\uc624\ub294 \ube44\ub18d\uc5c5 \uace0\uc6a9 \ubcf4\uace0\uc11c\uc640 \uad00\ub828\ud558\uc5ec \ub178\ub3d9 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uac1c\uc120\uc5d0 \uc8fc\ubaa9\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ubd80\uc9c4\ud55c \ub178\ub3d9 \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub294 \ub354 \ub9ce\uc740 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\ub97c \ucd09\ubc1c\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uac1c\uc120\uc774 \uc774\ub97c \ubcc0\uacbd\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc5f0\ub9d0\uae4c\uc9c0 \ucd94\uac00\ub85c 44bp \uc778\ud558\ub97c \uc608\uc0c1\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \ub450 \ubc88\uc758 25bp \uc778\ud558\uc5d0 \uae30\uc6b8\uc5b4 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc810 \ub3c4\ud45c\uc5d0\uc11c \ube44\ub458\uae30\ud30c \uc2e0\ud638\uc758 \ubd80\uc7ac\ub294 \ub354 \uacf5\uaca9\uc801\uc778 \uc778\ud558 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc9c0\uc9c0\uac00 \ubd80\uc871\ud558\ub2e4\ub294 \uac83\uc744 \ubc18\uc601\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub2e4\uc74c Fed \ud68c\uc758\ub294 10\uc6d4 29\uc77c\ub85c \uc608\uc815\ub418\uc5b4 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \ud5a5\ud6c4 \ubbf8\uad6d \uacbd\uc81c \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub97c \ud3c9\uac00\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uae30\ud68c\ub97c \uc81c\uacf5\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud604\uc7ac \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc5ec\uac74\uc740 \uc548\uc815\uc801\uc774\uba70, \ub69c\ub837\ud55c \uc815\uc11c \ubcc0\ud654\ub294 \ub098\ud0c0\ub098\uc9c0 \uc54a\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n\uc5b4\uc81c\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\ub97c \uae30\ubc18\uc73c\ub85c \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \uc5f0\ubc29\uc900\ube44\uc81c\ub3c4\uac00 \uc870\uc2ec\uc2a4\ub7fd\uac8c \uc644\ud654 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074\uc744 \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \ud655\uc778\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. 25bp \uc778\ud558\uac00 \uc608\uc0c1\ub418\uc5c8\uc9c0\ub9cc \uc810 \ub3c4\ud45c\uc758 \ubd84\uc5f4\uc740 \uc5bc\ub9c8\ub098 \ube60\ub974\uac8c \uc9c4\ud589\ud560\uc9c0\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ud569\uc758\uac00 \uc5c6\ub2e4\ub294 \uac83\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc90d\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774 \ubd84\uc5f4\uc740 \ub2e4\uac00\uc624\ub294 \uacbd\uc81c \ub370\uc774\ud130\uac00 \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uacb0\uc815\uc5d0 \ud070 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \ubbf8\uce60 \uac83\uc784\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n\ud604\uc7ac \uc9d1\uc911\uc740 \uac70\uc758 \uc804\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ub178\ub3d9 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc73c\ub85c \uc774\ub3d9\ud588\uc73c\uba70, Fed \uc758\uc7a5\uc740 \uc774\ub97c \uc8fc\uc694 \uc704\ud5d8\uc73c\ub85c \uac04\uc8fc\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 2025\ub144 8\uc6d4 \ube44\ub18d\uc5c5 \uace0\uc6a9 \ubcf4\uace0\uc11c\uc5d0\uc11c \uc608\uc0c1\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc57d\ud55c 155,000\uac1c\uc758 \uc77c\uc790\ub9ac\uac00 \ubcf4\uace0\ub41c \uc774\ud6c4 \uc774 \uc6b0\ub824\uac00 \ucee4\uc9c0\ub294 \uac83\uc744 \ubcf4\uc558\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ucd5c\uadfc JOLTS \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub294 \uad6c\uc778 \uacf5\uace0\uac00 2021\ub144 \ucd08 \uc774\ud6c4 \ucc98\uc74c\uc73c\ub85c 840\ub9cc \uac1c \uc774\ud558\ub85c \ub5a8\uc5b4\uc84c\uc74c\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc8fc\uc5c8\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. 10\uc6d4 3\uc77c\uc758 \ub2e4\uc74c \uace0\uc6a9 \ubcf4\uace0\uc11c\ub294 10\uc6d4 \ud68c\uc758\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uae30\ub300\ub97c \ud615\uc131\ud558\ub294 \ub370 \uc911\uc694\ud55c \uc5ed\ud560\uc744 \ud560 \uac83\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n<h3>\uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubc18\uc751 \ubc0f \uc804\ub7b5<\/h3>\n\uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \ub178\ub3d9 \uc704\ud5d8\uc73c\ub85c\uc758 \uc804\ud658\uc740 \ucd5c\uadfc \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc774 \uc548\uc815\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc720\uc9c0\ub418\uace0 \uc788\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc5d0 \uac00\ub2a5\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. 2025\ub144 7\uc6d4\uc758 \ud575\uc2ec \uac1c\uc778\uc18c\ube44\uc9c0\ucd9c(PCE) \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uc218\uce58\ub294 2.7%\ub85c \uc720\uc9c0\ub418\uc5c8\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub294 Fed\uac00 \uacbd\uc81c\uac00 \uc2dd\ub294 \uc0c1\ud669\uc5d0\uc11c \uac00\uaca9 \uc555\ubc15\uc744 \uc7ac\uc810\ud654\ud560 \uac71\uc815 \uc5c6\uc774 \ub300\uc751\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uc5ec\uc9c0\ub97c \uc90d\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \uc774 \ucd94\uc138\uac00 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc120\uc81c\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc778\ud558\ud558\ub294 &#8220;\uc704\ud5d8 \uad00\ub9ac&#8221; \uc811\uadfc \ubc29\uc2dd\uc744 \uc2e4\ud604 \uac00\ub2a5\ud558\uac8c \ud55c\ub2e4\uace0 \ubbff\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n\ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488 \uac70\ub798\uc790\uc5d0\uac8c\ub294 \uc774 \ub370\uc774\ud130 \uc758\uc874\uc801\uc778 \ud658\uacbd\uc774 \uc8fc\uc694 \uacbd\uc81c \ubc1c\ud45c\ub97c \uc55e\ub450\uace0 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \uc99d\uac00\ud560 \uac83\uc744 \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub2e8\uae30 \uae08\ub9ac \uc120\ubb3c(SOFR)\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc2a4\ud2b8\ub798\ub4e4(straddles) \ub610\ub294 \uc2a4\ud2b8\ub7ad\uae00(strangles)\uacfc \uac19\uc740 \uc635\uc158 \uc804\ub7b5\uc774 10\uc6d4 3\uc77c \uace0\uc6a9 \ub370\uc774\ud130 \ubc1c\ud45c \uc774\ud6c4\uc758 \uc7a0\uc7ac\uc801 \uac00\uaca9 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc5d0 \ub300\uc751\ud558\ub294 \ub370 \ud6a8\uacfc\uc801\uc77c \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \ub0b4\uc7ac \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc740 \uadf8 \ubcf4\uace0\uc11c\ub85c \ub2e4\uac00\uac00\uae30 \uc804 \uc99d\uac00\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ub429\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph-->\r\n<p><b>VT Markets \ub77c\uc774\ube0c \uacc4\uc815\uc744 \ub9cc\ub4e4\uace0 \uc9c0\uae08 \ubc14\ub85c <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/trade-now\/\">\uac70\ub798<\/a>\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uc138\uc694.<\/b><\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \uae30\uc900 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c 25bp \uc778\ud558\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uace0\uc6a9 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\ud574\uc9c0\uba74\uc11c \ucd94\uac00 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ucee4\uc84c\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub2e4\uc74c \uacbd\uc81c \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub97c \uc8fc\uc758 \uae4a\uac8c \uc9c0\ucf1c\ubd10\uc57c \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. &#8211; vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-20954","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20954","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=20954"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20954\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=20954"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=20954"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=20954"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}