{"id":19226,"date":"2025-08-12T22:38:02","date_gmt":"2025-08-12T22:38:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/uncategorized\/ubs%eb%8a%94-%ec%97%b0%eb%b0%a9%ec%a4%80%eb%b9%84%ec%a0%9c%eb%8f%84%ea%b0%80-9%ec%9b%94%eb%b6%80%ed%84%b0-100bp%ec%9d%98-%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-%ec%9d%b8%ed%95%98%eb%a5%bc-%ec%8b%9c%ec%9e%91%ed%95%a0\/"},"modified":"2025-08-12T22:38:02","modified_gmt":"2025-08-12T22:38:02","slug":"ubs%eb%8a%94-%ec%97%b0%eb%b0%a9%ec%a4%80%eb%b9%84%ec%a0%9c%eb%8f%84%ea%b0%80-9%ec%9b%94%eb%b6%80%ed%84%b0-100bp%ec%9d%98-%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-%ec%9d%b8%ed%95%98%eb%a5%bc-%ec%8b%9c%ec%9e%91%ed%95%a0","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/live-updates\/ubs%eb%8a%94-%ec%97%b0%eb%b0%a9%ec%a4%80%eb%b9%84%ec%a0%9c%eb%8f%84%ea%b0%80-9%ec%9b%94%eb%b6%80%ed%84%b0-100bp%ec%9d%98-%ea%b8%88%eb%a6%ac-%ec%9d%b8%ed%95%98%eb%a5%bc-%ec%8b%9c%ec%9e%91%ed%95%a0\/","title":{"rendered":"UBS\ub294 \uc5f0\ubc29\uc900\ube44\uc81c\ub3c4\uac00 9\uc6d4\ubd80\ud130 100bp\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791\ud560 \uac83\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \uc608\uce21\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4."},"content":{"rendered":"UBS\ub294 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc555\ub825\uc774 \uc62c\ud574 2026\ub144\uae4c\uc9c0 \uacc4\uc18d\ub420 \uac83\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \uc804\ub9dd\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 \uadf8\ub4e4\uc740 \uc5f0\ubc29\uc900\ube44\uc81c\ub3c4(Federal Reserve, \uc904\uc5ec\uc11c Fed)\uac00 \uc815\ucc45\uc744 \uc644\ud654\ud558\uae30 \uc2dc\uc791\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n\uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc774 \ub454\ud654\ub418\ub294 \ubbf8\uad6d \uacbd\uc81c \uc18d\uc5d0\uc11c\ub3c4 \ud1b5\uc81c\ub41c \uc0c1\ud0dc\ub97c \uc720\uc9c0\ud560 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc0c1\ub418\ubbc0\ub85c, UBS\ub294 Fed\uac00 9\uc6d4 \ud68c\uc758\uc5d0\uc11c \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc778\ud558\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \uc608\uce21\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub4e4\uc758 \uae30\ubcf8 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\ub294 \uc644\ud654 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074 \ub3d9\uc548 \ucd1d 100bp(\uae30\uc900 \uae08\ub9ac\uc758 1%)\uc758 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\ub97c \ud3ec\ud568\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n<h3>\uacbd\uc81c \uc9c0\uc6d0 \uc6b0\uc120\uc21c\uc704<\/h3> \n\nUBS\ub294 \uc9c0\uc18d\uc801\uc778 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc555\ub825\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ubd88\uad6c\ud558\uace0, \ub290\ub9b0 \uc131\uc7a5\uacfc \uc644\ud654\ub418\ub294 \ud575\uc2ec \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc774 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc774 \uacbd\uc81c \uc9c0\uc6d0\uc744 \uc6b0\uc120\uc2dc\ud558\uac8c \ub9cc\ub4e4 \uac83\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \uc81c\uc548\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774 \uc811\uadfc\ubc95\uc740 \uc7a5\uae30\uc801\uc778 \ub192\uc740 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \ud53c\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc744 \ud3ec\ud568\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n\ubbf8\uad6d \uacbd\uc81c\uc758 \ub454\ud654\uac00 \uc9c0\uc18d\uc801\uc778 \ubb3c\uac00 \uc555\ub825\uc73c\ub85c \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c0\uace0 \uc788\uc5b4, \uc5f0\ubc29\uc900\ube44\uc81c\ub3c4\uac00 \uace7 \ucd08\uc810\uc744 \uc804\ud658\ud560 \uac83\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uc758\uacac\uc774 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. 2025\ub144 7\uc6d4 \ube44\ub18d\uc5c5 \uace0\uc6a9 \ubcf4\uace0\uc11c\ub294 \uace0\uc6a9 \uc99d\uac00\uac00 155,000\uc73c\ub85c \ub454\ud654\ub418\uc5c8\uc74c\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc8fc\uba70 \uc774 \uc8fc\uc7a5\uc744 \ub4b7\ubc1b\uce68\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uacbd\uc81c\uac00 \ub0c9\uac01\ub418\uba74 Fed\ub294 9\uc6d4 \ud68c\uc758\uc5d0\uc11c \uc989\uc2dc \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc778\ud558\ud560 \ucda9\ubd84\ud55c \uc774\uc720\ub97c \uac00\uc9c8 \uac83\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \uc774\ubbf8 9\uc6d4 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\uc758 \ub192\uc740 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc744 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ubc18\uc601\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \ud30c\uc0dd\uc0c1\ud488 \uac70\ub798\uc790\ub4e4\uc740 \uadf8 \uc774\ud6c4\uc758 \uacbd\ub85c\ub97c \uc8fc\ubaa9\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. CME FedWatch \ub3c4\uad6c\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74 \ub2e4\uc74c \ub2ec 25bp \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\uc758 \ud655\ub960\uc740 70%\ub97c \ub118\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. Fed\uac00 \ub354 \ub9ce\uc740 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\ud558\uac00 \uc788\uc744 \uac83\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uc2e0\ud638\ub97c \ubcf4\ub0b4\uba74, SOFR \uc120\ubb3c \uc635\uc158\uc744 \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud558\ub294 \ucabd\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf4\ub2e4 \ube60\ub978 \uc644\ud654 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074\uc5d0 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc154\ub2dd\ub41c \uac70\ub798\uac00 \uc720\ub9ac\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n<h3>\uc8fc\uc2dd \ubc0f \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc5d0 \ubbf8\uce58\ub294 \uc601\ud5a5<\/h3>\n\n\uc774 \uc608\uc0c1\ub418\ub294 \uc815\ucc45 \ubcc0\ud654\ub294 \uc77c\ubc18\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc8fc\uc2dd\uc5d0 \uae0d\uc815\uc801\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub0ae\uc740 \uae08\ub9ac\ub294 \ubbf8\ub798 \uae30\uc5c5 \uc218\uc775\uc758 \ud604\uc7ac \uac00\uce58\ub97c \uc99d\uac00\uc2dc\ud0b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. 2025\ub144 10\uc6d4 \ubc0f 12\uc6d4 \ub9cc\uae30\uc778 S&#038;P 500 \ubc0f \ub098\uc2a4\ub2e5 100\uc758 \ucf5c \uc635\uc158\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uad00\uc2ec\uc774 \uc99d\uac00\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774 \uc804\ub7b5\uc740 2023\ub144 \ud6c4\ubc18\uc758 \uc5f0\uc900(pivot)\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uae30\ub300\uc5d0\uc11c \uc2dc\uc791\ub41c \uc8fc\uc694 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ub7a0\ub9ac\ub97c \ubc18\uc601\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n\uc704\uae30 \ubc18\uc751\uc774 \uc544\ub2cc \uc810\uc9c4\uc801\uc778 \uc644\ud654 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074\uc774 \uc77c\ubc18\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc744 \uc904\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud604\uc7ac 16\uc5d0 \uba38\ubb3c\uace0 \uc788\ub294 VIX \uc9c0\uc218\ub294 Fed\uac00 \uacbd\uc81c\uc758 \ubd80\ub4dc\ub7ec\uc6b4 \ucc29\ub959\uc744 \uc131\uacf5\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc774\ub04c \uacbd\uc6b0 \ud558\ub77d\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uac70\ub798\uc790\ub4e4\uc740 VIX\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ube44\ubc00 \ucf5c \uc635\uc158\uc744 \ub9e4\ub3c4\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uacfc \uac19\uc740 \uc804\ub7b5\uc744 \uace0\ub824\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n\ub610\ud55c 100bp \uc644\ud654 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074\uc740 \ubbf8\uad6d \ub2ec\ub7ec\uc758 \ub9e4\ub825\uc744 \uc904\uc77c \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ub192\ub2e4\uace0 \uc608\uc0c1\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub2ec\ub7ec \uc9c0\uc218(DXY)\ub294 \uc774 \uc815\ucc45 \ubcc0\ud654\ub97c \uc608\uc0c1\ud558\uba70 \uc9c0\ub09c \ud55c \ub2ec \ub3d9\uc548 \uac70\uc758 2% \ud558\ub77d\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc6b0\ub9ac\ub294 \uac70\ub798\uc790\ub4e4\uc774 \uc815\ucc45 \uacbd\ub85c\uac00 \ub2e4\ub978 \ud1b5\ud654\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \ub2ec\ub7ec\ub97c \ud558\ub77d \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc73c\ub85c \uac70\ub798\ud560 \uc635\uc158\uc744 \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud560 \uac83\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \ubcfc \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.\n\n<b><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/trade-now\/\">VT Markets \uacc4\uc815\uc744 \uc0dd\uc131\ud558\uc138\uc694<\/a>\u00a0\ubc0f\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/myaccount.vtmarkets.com\/login\">\uc9c0\uae08 \uac70\ub798\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uc138\uc694<\/a>.<\/b>\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph-->\r\n<p><b>VT Markets \ub77c\uc774\ube0c \uacc4\uc815\uc744 \ub9cc\ub4e4\uace0 \uc9c0\uae08 \ubc14\ub85c <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr\/trade-now\/\">\uac70\ub798<\/a>\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uc138\uc694.<\/b><\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:post-content -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>UBS\ub294 2026\ub144\uae4c\uc9c0 \uac00\uaca9 \uc555\ubc15\uc774 \uc9c0\uc18d\ub420 \uac83\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \uc608\uce21\ud558\uba70, \uc5f0\uc900\uc774 \uc624\ub294 9\uc6d4 \uae08\ub9ac\ub97c \uc778\ud558\ud560 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ud06c\ub2e4\uace0 \ubc1d\ud614\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uacbd\uc81c \uc9c0\uc6d0\uc744 \uc6b0\uc120\uc2dc\ud558\ub294 \ubcc0\ud654\uac00 \uc608\uc0c1\ub429\ub2c8\ub2e4. &#8211; vtmarkets.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-19226","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-live-updates"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19226","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=19226"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19226\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=19226"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=19226"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/kr-asia\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=19226"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}