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by VT Markets
Oct 13, 2026
달러 인덱스는 102.00선 바로 위에서 등락하며 연초 이후 수준 부근을 유지했다. 주요 통화쌍은 좁은 범위에서 거래됐다. 8월 PCE 디플레이터와 9월 비농업부문 고용(NFP) 보고서 등 미국의 부진한 지표 발표와 신중한 연준 커뮤니케이션이 맞물리며, 임박한 금리 인상 기대는 약화됐고 시장은 이달에는 제한적인 수준의 추가 긴축만을 반영하고 있다.
시장의 시선은 수요일 발표 예정인 9월 미국 CPI 보고서로 옮겨가고 있다. 이는 연준이 당분간 동결 기조를 유지할 것이라는 시장의 현재 가정을 시험할 것으로 예상된다. 또한 케빈 워시 연준 의장의 발언도 추가 방향성을 제공할 수 있다. 시장 참가자들은 이번 회의에서의 ‘일시 중단’이 회의 이후에도 이어질지, 혹은 연말 중 추가 조치에 앞선 과정인지 가늠하고 있으며, 12월이 잠재적 인상 시점으로 주목받고 있다.
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