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by VT Markets
Aug 27, 2026
ECB는 이제 9월에 25bp의 마지막 금리 인상을 단행해 예치금리를 2.50%로 끌어올린 뒤, 2027년까지 이를 동결할 것으로 예상된다. 앞서 2027년에 통화정책이 완화돼 금리가 2.00%로 다시 인하될 것이라는 전망은 철회됐다.
이번 수정은 성장 여건이 종전 가정보다 더 견조하다는 평가에 근거한 것으로, 내년 금리 인하 필요성을 낮춘다.
동시에 근원 인플레이션은 통제되고 있는 것으로 평가되며, 이는 추가 1회 조치 이후 추가 긴축을 제한하는 방향과 부합한다. 이 전망에 대한 리스크는 대체로 균형적인 것으로 제시됐다.
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