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현재 경질 원유 선물은 $66.28에서 거래되고 있으며, 이는 목표가를 가진 약세 시장 전망을 나타냅니다.

by VT Markets
/
Jul 25, 2025
Light Crude Oil Futures on July 25, 2025, are positioned at $66.28. The key bearish threshold is $66.38, while bullish opportunities emerge above $66.62, depending on sustained movement. Bearish targets range from $66.23, near today’s Value Area Low, to $65.31 above July 23rd’s Point of Control. Bullish targets could reach $67.47 if the price maintains above $66.62 for two 30-minute periods or 15 minutes continuously.

Key Levels In Volume Profile Analysis

Key levels like Value Area High, Low, VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price), and Point of Control show where trading activity is concentrated. These zones often attract prices, influencing their direction and reversal points. Understanding them helps traders make informed decisions about entering and exiting trades. The tradeCompass system supports this analysis by recommending no more than one trade per direction daily. It encourages taking partial profits and adjusting stop-loss orders as trades progress. Following these guidelines helps reduce risk. Volume profile tools, including POC (Point of Control), VAH (Value Area High), VAL (Value Area Low), and VWAP, indicate where market interest is focused. These tools assist traders in assessing potential price reversals or accelerations.

Framework Context And Market Dynamics

This analysis, part of the tradeCompass framework, provides structure but is not financial advice. Trading futures and leveraged instruments comes with risks—it’s important to trade only with money that one can afford to lose. We see the market confirming the bearish trend with prices struggling below the $66.38 level. This technical weakness is supported by the latest report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), showing an unexpected increase in U.S. crude inventories of 3.6 million barrels. This increase in supply puts more downward pressure on prices, making short-side targets more appealing. Adding to our concerns are recent comments from OPEC+ delegates indicating that they might reduce some production cuts sooner if demand weakens. On the demand side, China’s latest manufacturing PMI reading is at 49.5, suggesting a contraction and indicating weaker fuel demand from the world’s largest oil importer. These fundamental challenges align with the bearish price targets outlined in the analysis. For those trading derivatives, this suggests focusing on short futures positions or buying put options in the coming weeks. However, caution is necessary for a potential price reversal above the $66.62 level, as ongoing geopolitical tensions might cause sudden price spikes. Therefore, applying disciplined profit-taking and stop-loss management principles is important. Historically, the mid-$60s has been a crucial battleground for oil prices, often serving as a support level before declines. The last time prices fell below this level early in 2023, it led to a drop toward the low $60s amid recession concerns. With the Federal Reserve signaling a “higher for longer” interest rate policy, a similar narrative could easily push prices toward the final target of $65.31.

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