{"id":53850,"date":"2026-09-13T20:23:58","date_gmt":"2026-09-13T20:23:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/jp-asia\/uncategorized\/53850\/"},"modified":"2026-09-13T20:23:58","modified_gmt":"2026-09-13T20:23:58","slug":"%e5%86%86%e3%83%9d%e3%82%b8%e3%82%b7%e3%83%a7%e3%83%b3%e3%81%ae%e6%80%a5%e5%a4%89%e3%81%8c%e7%9f%ad%e6%9c%9f%e7%9a%84%e3%81%aa%e4%b8%8b%e6%8c%af%e3%82%8c%e3%83%aa%e3%82%b9%e3%82%af%e3%82%92%e7%a4%ba","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/jp-asia\/live-updates\/53850\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5186\u30dd\u30b8\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u306e\u6025\u5909\u304c\u77ed\u671f\u7684\u306a\u4e0b\u632f\u308c\u30ea\u30b9\u30af\u3092\u793a\u5506\u3001\u9285\u3068\u5927\u8c46\u306f\u5f31\u6c17\u306e\u6975\u7aef\u6c34\u6e96\u306b\u5230\u9054"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Commitments of Traders\uff08COT\uff09\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u306b\u3088\u308c\u3070\u3001\u65e5\u672c\u5186\u306f\u30b3\u30de\u30fc\u30b7\u30e3\u30eb\uff08\u30d8\u30c3\u30b8\u30e3\u30fc\uff09\u90e8\u9580\u306e\u30cd\u30c3\u30c8\u30fb\u30dd\u30b8\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u306b\u304a\u3044\u3066\u9031\u9593\u5909\u52d5\u304c\u6700\u5927\u3068\u306a\u308a\u300149%\u306e\u30b7\u30d5\u30c8\u304c\u793a\u3055\u308c\u305f\u3002\u3053\u308c\u306f\u5bfe\u7c73\u30c9\u30eb\u3067\u77ed\u671f\u7684\u306a\u4e0b\u62bc\u3057\u5727\u529b\u3092\u793a\u5506\u3059\u308b\u3002\u4e00\u65b9\u3067\u9577\u671f\u8996\u70b9\u306f\u4e00\u65b9\u5411\u3067\u306f\u306a\u3044\u3002iCOT\u30b9\u30b3\u30a2\u306f1\u5e74\u30d9\u30fc\u30b9\u3067\u30a8\u30af\u30b9\u30c8\u30ea\u30fc\u30e0\uff08\u6975\u7aef\u57df\uff09\u3092\u793a\u3059\u4e00\u65b9\u3001\u904e\u53bb\u306b\u306f5\u5e74\u30d9\u30fc\u30b9\u306e\u5f37\u6c17\u30a8\u30af\u30b9\u30c8\u30ea\u30fc\u30e0\u304c\u4e0a\u6607\u5c40\u9762\u3092\u4e0b\u652f\u3048\u3057\u3066\u3044\u305f\u3002\u305d\u306e\u5f8c\u30dd\u30b8\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u306f\u5f8c\u9000\u3057\u305f\u3082\u306e\u306e\u3001\u540c\u7b49\u306e\u9577\u671f\u5f31\u6c17\u30b7\u30b0\u30ca\u30eb\u306f\u5f62\u6210\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u306a\u3044\u3002\u30cb\u30e5\u30fc\u30b8\u30fc\u30e9\u30f3\u30c9\u30c9\u30eb\u3082\u30b3\u30de\u30fc\u30b7\u30e3\u30eb\u306e\u9031\u9593\u5909\u52d5\u304c19%\u3068\u5927\u304d\u304b\u3063\u305f\u304c\u3001\u3084\u3084\u5f37\u6c17\u306eiCOT\u8aad\u307f\u3068\u3001\u3088\u308a\u5f31\u6c17\u306a5\u5e74\u30d9\u30fc\u30b9\u306e\u80cc\u666f\u304c\u4f75\u5b58\u3057\u3001\u898b\u65b9\u304c\u5272\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>FX\u4ee5\u5916\u3067\u306f\u3001\u9285\u304c\u30e9\u30fc\u30b8\u30fb\u30b9\u30da\u30ad\u30e5\u30ec\u30fc\u30bf\u30fc\uff08\u5927\u53e3\u6295\u6a5f\uff09\u3068\u30b3\u30de\u30fc\u30b7\u30e3\u30eb\u306e\u30cd\u30c3\u30c8\u30fb\u30dd\u30b8\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u306e\u53cc\u65b9\u3067\u53f2\u4e0a\u6700\u5f31\u6c17\u306eCOT\u30a8\u30af\u30b9\u30c8\u30ea\u30fc\u30e0\u306b\u5230\u9054\u3057\u305f\u3002\u3053\u3046\u3057\u305f\u5c40\u9762\u306f\u3001\u6b74\u53f2\u7684\u306b\u30b9\u30c8\u30ec\u30b9\u5c40\u9762\u3084\u3001\u5834\u5408\u306b\u3088\u3063\u3066\u306f\u4fa1\u683c\u4e0b\u843d\u3068\u91cd\u306a\u308a\u3084\u3059\u3044\u4e00\u65b9\u3001\u300c\u30b3\u30de\u30fc\u30b7\u30e3\u30eb\u306e\u6295\u3052\uff08commercial capitulation\uff09\u300d\u304c\u767a\u751f\u3059\u308b\u3068\u4e0a\u6607\u304c\u9577\u5f15\u304f\u3053\u3068\u3082\u3042\u308b\u3002\u5927\u8c46\u3082\u540c\u69d8\u306b\u53f2\u4e0a\u6700\u5f31\u6c17\u30a8\u30af\u30b9\u30c8\u30ea\u30fc\u30e0\u3092\u793a\u3057\u3066\u304a\u308a\u3001\u6570\u9031\u9593\u304b\u3089\u6570\u30ab\u6708\u6301\u7d9a\u3057\u5f97\u308b\u305f\u3081\u3001\u76f4\u3061\u306b\u4fa1\u683c\u53cd\u8ee2\u3092\u5f37\u5236\u3059\u308b\u3082\u306e\u3067\u306f\u306a\u3044\u3002\u5929\u7136\u30ac\u30b9\u306f\u5f37\u6c17\u5074\u306b\u6b74\u53f2\u7684\u306a\u504f\u308a\u304c\u7d9a\u3044\u3066\u304a\u308a\u3001\u30e9\u30fc\u30b8\u30fb\u30b9\u30da\u30ad\u30e5\u30ec\u30fc\u30bf\u30fc\u306e\u30cd\u30c3\u30c8\u30fb\u30dd\u30b8\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u3067339\u672c\u3001\u30b3\u30de\u30fc\u30b7\u30e3\u30eb\u3067342\u672c\u3068\u3044\u3046\u9577\u671f\u306b\u308f\u305f\u308b\u30a8\u30af\u30b9\u30c8\u30ea\u30fc\u30e0\u304c\u78ba\u8a8d\u3055\u308c\u308b\u30022020\u5e74\u306e\u985e\u4f3c\u5c40\u9762\u3067\u3082\u3001\u672c\u683c\u7684\u306a\u4e0a\u6607\u304c\u51fa\u308b\u307e\u3067\u306b\u6570\u30ab\u6708\u3092\u8981\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>Near-Term FX Risks and Trade Opportunities<\/h3>\n<p>\u30b3\u30de\u30fc\u30b7\u30e3\u30eb\u306e\u30cd\u30c3\u30c8\u30fb\u30dd\u30b8\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u304c\u9031\u6b21\u306749%\u3082\u30b7\u30d5\u30c8\u3057\u305f\u3053\u3068\u3092\u53d7\u3051\u3001\u65e5\u672c\u5186\u306f\u77ed\u671f\u7684\u306a\u5f31\u542b\u307f\u306b\u5099\u3048\u308b\u5fc5\u8981\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3002\u65e5\u9280\u306e\u653f\u7b56\u91d1\u5229\u904b\u55b6\u306e\u5909\u5316\u306f\u4e2d\u671f\u7684\u306b\u5186\u3092\u652f\u3048\u5f97\u308b\u3082\u306e\u306e\u3001\u3053\u306e\u6025\u6fc0\u306a\u77ed\u671f\u30b7\u30b0\u30ca\u30eb\u306f\u3001\u4eca\u5f8c\u6570\u9031\u9593\u3067\u7c73\u30c9\u30eb\u304c\u5186\u306b\u5bfe\u3057\u3066\u512a\u52e2\u3068\u306a\u308a\u3001\u30c9\u30eb\uff0f\u5186\u3092145\u5186\u6c34\u6e96\u65b9\u5411\u3078\u62bc\u3057\u623b\u3059\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3092\u793a\u3059\u3002\u30c7\u30ea\u30d0\u30c6\u30a3\u30d6\u53d6\u5f15\u3067\u306f\u3001\u5186\u306e\u77ed\u671f\u7684\u306a\u6226\u8853\u6a5f\u4f1a\u3092\u63a2\u308a\u3064\u3064\u3001\u3088\u308a\u9577\u3044\u6642\u9593\u8ef8\u3067\u306f\u30b5\u30dd\u30fc\u30c6\u30a3\u30d6\u306a\u30d0\u30a4\u30a2\u30b9\u3092\u7dad\u6301\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3092\u63a8\u5968\u3059\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u30cb\u30e5\u30fc\u30b8\u30fc\u30e9\u30f3\u30c9\u30c9\u30eb\u3082\u3001\u30b3\u30de\u30fc\u30b7\u30e3\u30eb\u306e\u9031\u6b2119%\u30b7\u30d5\u30c8\u304c\u77ed\u671f\u5f31\u6c17\u3092\u793a\u5506\u3059\u308b\u306a\u3069\u3001\u540c\u69d8\u306b\u5f37\u5f31\u304c\u4ea4\u932f\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002\u305f\u3060\u3057\u6642\u9593\u8ef8\u306b\u3088\u3063\u3066\u30b7\u30b0\u30ca\u30eb\u304c\u77db\u76fe\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u305f\u3081\u3001\u73fe\u6642\u70b9\u3067\u30ad\u30a6\u30a4\u3092\u5358\u72ec\u3067\u53d6\u5f15\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u306f\u907f\u3051\u305f\u3044\u3002\u4ee3\u308f\u308a\u306b\u3001\u8c6a\u30c9\u30eb\u3084\u7c73\u30c9\u30eb\u6307\u6570\u3068\u7167\u5408\u3057\u3001\u3088\u308a\u660e\u78ba\u306a\u30c8\u30ec\u30f3\u30c9\u3092\u78ba\u8a8d\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3092\u63d0\u6848\u3059\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>Commodities at Positioning Extremes<\/h3>\n<p>\u9285\u306f\u3001Commitment of Traders\uff08COT\uff09\u306b\u304a\u3044\u3066\u524d\u4f8b\u306e\u306a\u3044\u53f2\u4e0a\u6700\u5f31\u6c17\u306e\u30a8\u30af\u30b9\u30c8\u30ea\u30fc\u30e0\u306b\u5230\u9054\u3057\u305f\u3002\u6295\u6a5f\u7b4b\u3068\u30b3\u30de\u30fc\u30b7\u30e3\u30eb\u306e\u30dd\u30b8\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u304c\u3053\u3053\u307e\u3067\u504f\u308b\u5c40\u9762\u3067\u306f\u3001\u6b74\u53f2\u7684\u306b\u6025\u306a\u4fa1\u683c\u8abf\u6574\u304c\u8d77\u3053\u308a\u3084\u3059\u3044\u3002\u4e16\u754c\u306e\u5de5\u696d\u9700\u8981\u304c\u5909\u52d5\u3059\u308b\u306a\u304b\u3001\u9285\u4fa1\u683c\u306f1\u30dd\u30f3\u30c9\u5f53\u305f\u308a4.20\u30c9\u30eb\u8fd1\u8fba\u3067\u63a8\u79fb\u3057\u3066\u304a\u308a\u3001\u3053\u306e\u30dd\u30b8\u30b7\u30e7\u30cb\u30f3\u30b0\u306f\u300c\u62bc\u3057\u76ee\u8cb7\u3044\u306e\u597d\u6a5f\u300d\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3088\u308a\u3001\u91cd\u8981\u306a\u8b66\u6212\u30b5\u30a4\u30f3\u3068\u3057\u3066\u6271\u3046\u3079\u304d\u3060\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3082\u3063\u3068\u3082\u3001\u30b3\u30de\u30fc\u30b7\u30e3\u30eb\u306e\u6295\u3052\uff08capitulation\uff09\u306b\u306f\u6ce8\u610f\u304c\u5fc5\u8981\u3067\u3001\u771f\u306e\u53cd\u8ee2\u306b\u5148\u7acb\u3063\u3066\u4e00\u6642\u7684\u306b\u4fa1\u683c\u3092\u62bc\u3057\u4e0a\u3052\u308b\u5834\u5408\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3002\u904e\u53bb\u306e\u30a8\u30af\u30b9\u30c8\u30ea\u30fc\u30e0\u5c40\u9762\u3067\u306f\u3001\u30b7\u30e7\u30fc\u30c8\u52e2\u304c\u8e0f\u307f\u4e0a\u3052\u3089\u308c\u3001\u6700\u5f8c\u306e\u6025\u4f38\u5c40\u9762\u304c\u751f\u3058\u305f\u30b1\u30fc\u30b9\u3082\u3042\u3063\u305f\u3002\u5f53\u9762\u306f\u3001\u76f4\u3061\u306b\u7a4d\u6975\u7684\u306a\u65b0\u898f\u30b7\u30e7\u30fc\u30c8\u3092\u69cb\u7bc9\u3059\u308b\u3088\u308a\u3082\u3001\u9285\u30ed\u30f3\u30b0\u3092\u4fdd\u6709\u3059\u308b\u30c7\u30ea\u30d0\u30c6\u30a3\u30d6\u53d6\u5f15\u8005\u306f\u30b9\u30c8\u30c3\u30d7\u30ed\u30b9\u306e\u5f15\u304d\u4e0a\u3052\u3067\u30ea\u30b9\u30af\u7ba1\u7406\u3092\u5f37\u5316\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3092\u63d0\u6848\u3059\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5927\u8c46\u3082\u307b\u307c\u540c\u69d8\u306b\u53f2\u4e0a\u6700\u5f31\u6c17\u306e\u30a8\u30af\u30b9\u30c8\u30ea\u30fc\u30e0\u3092\u793a\u3057\u3066\u304a\u308a\u3001\u8fb2\u7523\u7269\u5e02\u5834\u306f\u6025\u843d\u306b\u5bfe\u3057\u3066\u8106\u5f31\u306b\u306a\u308a\u3084\u3059\u3044\u30022020\u5e7410\u6708\u306b\u89b3\u5bdf\u3055\u308c\u305f\u5e02\u5834\u884c\u52d5\u3068\u540c\u3058\u304f\u3001\u6975\u7aef\u306a\u30dd\u30b8\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u306f\u4e00\u5b9a\u671f\u9593\u6301\u7d9a\u3059\u308b\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u304c\u3042\u308b\u4e00\u65b9\u3001\u30ed\u30f3\u30b0\u306e\u30ea\u30b9\u30af\u30ea\u30ef\u30fc\u30c9\u306f\u3082\u306f\u3084\u826f\u597d\u3068\u306f\u8a00\u3044\u96e3\u3044\u3002\u5927\u8c46\u306e\u30ed\u30f3\u30b0\u3092\u6b8b\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u5834\u5408\u306f\u3001\u5229\u76ca\u78ba\u5b9a\u3092\u9032\u3081\u308b\u306e\u304c\u5408\u7406\u7684\u3068\u307f\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e00\u65b9\u3001\u5929\u7136\u30ac\u30b9\u306f\u6b74\u53f2\u7684\u306b\u5927\u898f\u6a21\u306a\u5f37\u6c17\u30a8\u30af\u30b9\u30c8\u30ea\u30fc\u30e0\u306b\u3042\u308b\u3002\u7c73\u30d8\u30f3\u30ea\u30fc\u30cf\u30d6\u5929\u7136\u30ac\u30b9\u306fMMBtu\u5f53\u305f\u308a2.30\u30c9\u30eb\u8fd1\u8fba\u3068\u76f8\u5bfe\u7684\u306b\u4f4e\u6c34\u6e96\u306b\u3042\u308a\u3001\u51ac\u5b63\u9700\u8981\u671f\u306b\u8fd1\u3065\u304f\u306b\u3064\u308c\u3066\u3001\u4e0a\u65b9\u5411\u3078\u306e\u5927\u304d\u306a\u52d5\u304d\u304c\u8d77\u3053\u308b\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u306f\u9ad8\u3044\u3002\u305f\u3060\u3057\u30012020\u5e74\u306e\u985e\u4f3c\u30bb\u30c3\u30c8\u30a2\u30c3\u30d7\u3067\u306f\u672c\u683c\u7684\u306a\u30e9\u30ea\u30fc\u767a\u751f\u307e\u3067\u6570\u30ab\u6708\u3092\u8981\u3057\u3066\u304a\u308a\u3001\u62d9\u901f\u306f\u907f\u3051\u305f\u3044\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7d50\u5c40\u306e\u3068\u3053\u308d\u3001\u3053\u3046\u3057\u305f\u30dd\u30b8\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u306e\u30a8\u30af\u30b9\u30c8\u30ea\u30fc\u30e0\u306f\u300c\u7cbe\u5bc6\u306a\u8ee2\u63db\u30bf\u30a4\u30df\u30f3\u30b0\u300d\u3067\u306f\u306a\u304f\u3001\u300c\u30ea\u30b9\u30af\u306e\u69cb\u9020\u5730\u56f3\u300d\u3092\u793a\u3059\u306b\u3068\u3069\u307e\u308b\u3002\u5927\u304d\u306a\u8cc7\u91d1\u3092\u6295\u4e0b\u3059\u308b\u524d\u306b\u3001\u5b9f\u969b\u306e\u5024\u52d5\u304d\uff08\u30d7\u30e9\u30a4\u30b9\u30a2\u30af\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\uff09\u3067\u8ee2\u63db\u3092\u78ba\u8a8d\u3059\u308b\u5fc5\u8981\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3002\u77ed\u671f\u306e\u6226\u8853\u3068\u9577\u671f\u306e\u6226\u7565\u3092\u5207\u308a\u5206\u3051\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3067\u3001\u904e\u5ea6\u306b\u6df7\u96d1\u3057\u305f\u53d6\u5f15\u306e\u9006\u5074\u306b\u53d6\u308a\u6b8b\u3055\u308c\u308b\u30ea\u30b9\u30af\u3092\u6291\u3048\u3089\u308c\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>\u4eca\u3059\u3050\u53d6\u5f15\u3092\u59cb\u3081\u307e\u3057\u3087\u3046 \u2014 VT Markets\u306e\u30ea\u30a2\u30eb\u53e3\u5ea7\u3092\u958b\u8a2d\u3059\u308b\u306b\u306f<a 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