{"id":46327,"date":"2026-05-04T21:30:06","date_gmt":"2026-05-04T21:30:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/uncategorized\/46327\/"},"modified":"2026-05-04T21:30:06","modified_gmt":"2026-05-04T21:30:06","slug":"%ef%bd%94%ef%bd%84%e3%82%bb%e3%82%ad%e3%83%a5%e3%83%aa%e3%83%86%e3%82%a3%e3%83%bc%e3%82%ba%e3%81%ae%e3%82%a8%e3%82%b3%e3%83%8e%e3%83%9f%e3%82%b9%e3%83%88%e3%80%81%ef%bd%86%ef%bd%92%ef%bd%82%e3%81%af","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/jp-asia\/live-updates\/46327\/","title":{"rendered":"\uff34\uff24\u30bb\u30ad\u30e5\u30ea\u30c6\u30a3\u30fc\u30ba\u306e\u30a8\u30b3\u30ce\u30df\u30b9\u30c8\u3001\uff26\uff32\uff22\u306f\uff19\u6708\u307e\u3067\u91d1\u5229\u636e\u3048\u7f6e\u304d\u3068\u4e88\u60f3\u3000\u30a4\u30e9\u30f3\u7d1b\u4e89\u3068\u30a4\u30f3\u30d5\u30ec\u52d5\u5411\u3092\u6ce8\u8996"},"content":{"rendered":"

TD\u30bb\u30ad\u30e5\u30ea\u30c6\u30a3\u30fc\u30ba\u306e\u30a8\u30b3\u30ce\u30df\u30b9\u30c8\u3001\u30aa\u30b9\u30ab\u30fc\u30fb\u30e0\u30cb\u30e7\u30b9\u6c0f\u3068\u30a8\u30ea\u30fb\u30cb\u30eb\u6c0f\u306f\u3001\u7c73\u9023\u90a6\u6e96\u5099\u5236\u5ea6\u7406\u4e8b\u4f1a\uff08FRB\uff09\u304c\u30a4\u30e9\u30f3\u60c5\u52e2\u3092\u898b\u6975\u3081\u3001\u7269\u4fa1\u52d5\u5411\uff08\u30a4\u30f3\u30d5\u30ec\u7387\uff09\u3092\u78ba\u8a8d\u3059\u308b\u305f\u3081\u30019\u6708\u307e\u3067\u91d1\u878d\u653f\u7b56\u3092\u636e\u3048\u7f6e\u304f\uff08\u653f\u7b56\u91d1\u5229\u3092\u5909\u3048\u306a\u3044\uff09\u3068\u4e88\u60f3\u3059\u308b\u3002\u30a8\u30cd\u30eb\u30ae\u30fc\u4fa1\u683c\u306e\u4e0a\u6607\u3092\u80cc\u666f\u306b\u30a4\u30f3\u30d5\u30ec\u304c\u7c98\u7740\u7684\uff08\u4e0b\u304c\u308a\u306b\u304f\u3044\uff09\u3068\u306a\u308a\u3001\u9023\u90a6\u516c\u958b\u5e02\u5834\u59d4\u54e1\u4f1a\uff08FOMC\uff1dFRB\u306e\u653f\u7b56\u6c7a\u5b9a\u4f1a\u5408\uff09\u5185\u306e\u610f\u898b\u5bfe\u7acb\u3082\u3042\u308b\u305f\u3081\u3001\u5229\u4e0b\u3052\u958b\u59cb\u304c\u9045\u308c\u3001\u30d5\u30a7\u30c7\u30e9\u30eb\u30fb\u30d5\u30a1\u30f3\u30c9\uff08FF\uff09\u91d1\u5229\uff08\u9280\u884c\u540c\u58eb\u304c\u77ed\u671f\u3067\u8cc7\u91d1\u3092\u8cb8\u3057\u501f\u308a\u3059\u308b\u969b\u306e\u57fa\u6e96\u91d1\u5229\uff09\u304c\u9577\u304f\u9ad8\u6c34\u6e96\u306b\u3068\u3069\u307e\u308b\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e21\u6c0f\u306f\u3001\u30d1\u30a6\u30a8\u30eb\u8b70\u9577\u304c\u4eca\u5f8c\u306e\u653f\u7b56\u306e\u9053\u7b4b\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u660e\u78ba\u306a\u65b9\u5411\u6027\u3092\u793a\u3057\u3066\u3044\u306a\u3044\u3068\u3057\u3064\u3064\u3001\u5148\u884c\u304d\u306e\u653f\u7b56\u904b\u55b6\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u5e02\u5834\u306b\u793a\u3059\u300c\u30d5\u30a9\u30ef\u30fc\u30c9\u30ac\u30a4\u30c0\u30f3\u30b9\uff08\u5c06\u6765\u306e\u653f\u7b56\u65b9\u91dd\u306b\u95a2\u3059\u308b\u8aac\u660e\uff09\u300d\u3092\u3001\u5229\u4e0a\u3052\u30fb\u5229\u4e0b\u3052\u306e\u4e21\u65b9\u5411\u3092\u793a\u5506\u3057\u5f97\u308b\u300c\u53cc\u65b9\u5411\u300d\u306e\u59ff\u52e2\u3078\u79fb\u3059\u8b70\u8ad6\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3068\u6307\u6458\u3059\u308b\u30024\u6708\u306b\u306f\u5730\u533a\u9023\u9280\u7dcf\u88c13\u4eba\u304c\u53cd\u5bfe\u7968\u3092\u6295\u3058\u3001\u3053\u306e\u5909\u66f4\u3092\u652f\u6301\u3057\u305f\u3068\u3057\u3066\u304a\u308a\u3001\u307e\u305a\u306f\u58f0\u660e\u6587\u306e\u8868\u73fe\u4fee\u6b63\u304b\u3089\u59cb\u307e\u308b\u898b\u901a\u3057\u3060\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3002<\/p>\n

Rates Outlook And Market Positioning<\/h3>\n

\u4e21\u6c0f\u306f\u30012026\u5e74\u306b\u5408\u8a0850\u30d9\u30fc\u30b7\u30b9\u30dd\u30a4\u30f3\u30c8\uff08bp\u30010.01\uff05\uff1d1bp\uff09\u306e\u5229\u4e0b\u3052\u3001\u3055\u3089\u306b2027\u5e743\u6708\u306b25bp\u306e\u8ffd\u52a0\u5229\u4e0b\u3052\u3092\u4e88\u60f3\u3059\u308b\u3002\u307e\u305f\u5225\u30b7\u30ca\u30ea\u30aa\u3068\u3057\u3066\u30019\u6708\u306812\u6708\u306b50bp\u30012027\u5e743\u6708\u306b25bp\u306e\u5229\u4e0b\u3052\u3092\u884c\u3044\u3001\u6700\u7d42\u7684\u306bFF\u91d1\u5229\u304c3.00\uff05\u306b\u5230\u9054\u3059\u308b\u7d4c\u8def\u3082\u793a\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n

9\u6708\u306b\u7de9\u548c\uff08\u5229\u4e0b\u3052\uff09\u3078\u623b\u308b\u304b\u3069\u3046\u304b\u306f\u3001\u30a4\u30f3\u30d5\u30ec\u304c\u901a\u5e38\u306e\u6c34\u6e96\u3078\u843d\u3061\u7740\u304f\u3053\u3068\uff08\u6b63\u5e38\u5316\uff09\u3068\u3001\u30a4\u30e9\u30f3\u60c5\u52e2\u306b\u3088\u308b\u666f\u6c17\u3078\u306e\u60aa\u5f71\u97ff\u304c\u9650\u5b9a\u7684\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u6761\u4ef6\u3060\u3068\u3059\u308b\u3002\u30cb\u30e5\u30fc\u30e8\u30fc\u30af\u9023\u9280\u306e\u30a6\u30a3\u30ea\u30a2\u30e0\u30ba\u7dcf\u88c1\u306e\u4eca\u5f8c\u306e\u767a\u8a00\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u3001\u58f0\u660e\u6587\u306e\u8868\u73fe\u5909\u66f4\u306b\u95a2\u3059\u308b\u793a\u5506\u304c\u3042\u308b\u304b\u6ce8\u76ee\u3055\u308c\u308b\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3002<\/p>\n

FRB\u306f\u3001\u30a4\u30e9\u30f3\u3068\u306e\u7d1b\u4e89\u3092\u8a55\u4fa1\u3059\u308b\u9593\u3001\u5c11\u306a\u304f\u3068\u30829\u6708\u307e\u3067\u636e\u3048\u7f6e\u304f\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u304c\u9ad8\u3044\u3002\u76f4\u8fd1\u306e4\u6708\u306eCPI\uff08\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u7269\u4fa1\u6307\u6570\uff1d\u5bb6\u8a08\u304c\u8cfc\u5165\u3059\u308b\u30e2\u30ce\u3084\u30b5\u30fc\u30d3\u30b9\u306e\u5024\u4e0a\u304c\u308a\u7387\u3092\u793a\u3059\u6307\u6a19\uff09\u3067\u306f\u3001\u7dcf\u5408\u30a4\u30f3\u30d5\u30ec\u7387\u304c3.8\uff05\u3068\u9ad8\u6b62\u307e\u308a\u3057\u3001\u4f4e\u4e0b\u304c\u3088\u308a\u901f\u3044\u3068\u898b\u3066\u3044\u305f\u5e02\u5834\u4e88\u60f3\u3092\u4e0a\u56de\u3063\u305f\u3002\u3053\u3046\u3057\u305f\u74b0\u5883\u3067\u306f\u3001\u3053\u306e\u590f\u306e\u5229\u4e0b\u3052\u3092\u898b\u8fbc\u3080\u53d6\u5f15\u306f\u898b\u76f4\u3057\u304c\u5fc5\u8981\u3068\u306a\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n

\u614e\u91cd\u59ff\u52e2\u306e\u4e3b\u56e0\u306f\u3001\u30a8\u30cd\u30eb\u30ae\u30fc\u5e02\u5834\u3078\u306e\u4e0a\u6607\u5727\u529b\u304c\u7d9a\u3044\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3060\u3002\u539f\u6cb9\u4fa1\u683c\u306f2026\u5e743\u6708\u306e\u30b7\u30e7\u30c3\u30af\u4ee5\u964d\u30011\u30d0\u30ec\u30eb\uff1d105\u30c9\u30eb\u3092\u4e0a\u56de\u308b\u6c34\u6e96\u3067\u63a8\u79fb\u3057\u3001\u71c3\u6599\u30fb\u8f38\u9001\u306a\u3069\u3092\u901a\u3058\u3066\u7269\u4fa1\u306b\u6ce2\u53ca\u3057\u3084\u3059\u3044\u3002\u3053\u308c\u304cFRB\u306e\u653f\u7b56\u904b\u55b6\u3092\u96e3\u3057\u304f\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u30022022\u5e74\u306b\u3082\u5730\u653f\u5b66\u7684\u8981\u56e0\u306b\u3088\u308b\u30a8\u30cd\u30eb\u30ae\u30fc\u9ad8\u304c\u8d77\u304d\u3001\u5404\u56fd\u306e\u4e2d\u592e\u9280\u884c\uff08\u91d1\u878d\u653f\u7b56\u3092\u62c5\u3046\u5f53\u5c40\uff09\u304c\u3088\u308a\u5f37\u3044\u5f15\u304d\u7de0\u3081\u3092\u8feb\u3089\u308c\u305f\u7d4c\u7def\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n

Trading Implications For Volatility And Curves<\/h3>\n

\u3053\u306e\u898b\u901a\u3057\u3092\u8e0f\u307e\u3048\u308b\u3068\u3001\u590f\u5834\u306eSOFR\u5148\u7269\uff08\u62c5\u4fdd\u4ed8\u7fcc\u65e5\u7269\u8cc7\u91d1\u8abf\u9054\u91d1\u5229\uff1d\u77ed\u671f\u91d1\u5229\u306e\u4ee3\u8868\u6307\u6a19\u3092\u57fa\u306b\u3057\u305f\u5148\u7269\uff09\u306b\u9023\u52d5\u3057\u305f\u30aa\u30d7\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u4fa1\u683c\u306f\u3001\u91d1\u878d\u7de9\u548c\u5bc4\u308a\uff08\u5229\u4e0b\u3052\u3092\u7e54\u308a\u8fbc\u307f\u904e\u304e\uff09\u306b\u306a\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3002\u300c\u9ad8\u91d1\u5229\u304c\u9577\u671f\u5316\uff08higher for longer\uff09\u300d\u306b\u5099\u3048\u308b\u624b\u6bb5\u3068\u3057\u3066\u306f\u30012026\u5e74\u7b2c3\u56db\u534a\u671f\u306e\u5148\u7269\u3092\u58f2\u308b\uff08\u30b7\u30e7\u30fc\u30c8\u3059\u308b\uff09\u6226\u7565\u304c\u8003\u3048\u3089\u308c\u308b\u3002\u5e02\u5834\u304c\u65e9\u904e\u304e\u308b\u5229\u4e0b\u3052\u671f\u5f85\u3092\u4fee\u6b63\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3067\u4fa1\u683c\u304c\u52d5\u304f\u3001\u3068\u3044\u3046\u60f3\u5b9a\u306b\u7acb\u3064\u3002<\/p>\n

4\u6708\u4f1a\u5408\u3067\u306e3\u4eba\u306e\u53cd\u5bfe\u7968\u304c\u793a\u3059\u3088\u3046\u306b\u3001FOMC\u5185\u306e\u6df1\u3044\u610f\u898b\u5bfe\u7acb\u304c\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9f\u6027\u3092\u9ad8\u3081\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002\u6b21\u56de\u4ee5\u964d\u306e\u4f1a\u5408\u3092\u524d\u306b\u3001\u91d1\u5229\u5e02\u5834\u306e\u30a4\u30f3\u30d7\u30e9\u30a4\u30c9\u30fb\u30dc\u30e9\u30c6\u30a3\u30ea\u30c6\u30a3\uff08\u30aa\u30d7\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u4fa1\u683c\u304b\u3089\u9006\u7b97\u3055\u308c\u308b\u4e88\u60f3\u5909\u52d5\u7387\uff09\u304c\u4e0a\u6607\u3057\u3084\u3059\u3044\u3002\u7c73\u56fd\u50b5\u5148\u7269\u306e\u30b9\u30c8\u30e9\u30c9\u30eb\uff08\u540c\u3058\u6e80\u671f\u30fb\u6a29\u5229\u884c\u4f7f\u4fa1\u683c\u306e\u30b3\u30fc\u30eb\u3068\u30d7\u30c3\u30c8\u3092\u540c\u6642\u306b\u8cb7\u3044\u3001\u4e0a\u3052\u4e0b\u3052\u3069\u3061\u3089\u306e\u5927\u304d\u306a\u52d5\u304d\u306b\u3082\u5099\u3048\u308b\u6226\u7565\uff09\u306a\u3069\u3067\u30dc\u30e9\u30c6\u30a3\u30ea\u30c6\u30a3\u3092\u8cb7\u3046\u3053\u3068\u306f\u3001\u58f0\u660e\u6587\u306e\u30b5\u30d7\u30e9\u30a4\u30ba\u306b\u5099\u3048\u308b\u624b\u6bb5\u306b\u306a\u308a\u5f97\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n

FRB\u304c\u614e\u91cd\uff08\u5229\u4e0b\u3052\u3092\u6025\u304c\u306a\u3044\uff09\u3060\u3068\u3001\u30a4\u30fc\u30eb\u30c9\u30ab\u30fc\u30d6\uff08\u56fd\u50b5\u5229\u56de\u308a\u306e\u671f\u9593\u5225\u306e\u4e26\u3073\uff09\u304c\u30d5\u30e9\u30c3\u30c8\u5316\uff08\u77ed\u671f\u3068\u9577\u671f\u306e\u5229\u56de\u308a\u5dee\u304c\u7e2e\u5c0f\uff09\u3057\u3084\u3059\u3044\u3002\u77ed\u671f\u91d1\u5229\u304c\u9ad8\u6b62\u307e\u308a\u3059\u308b\u4e00\u65b9\u3001\u9577\u671f\u3067\u306f\u6210\u9577\u920d\u5316\u3078\u306e\u61f8\u5ff5\u304c\u610f\u8b58\u3055\u308c\u308b\u305f\u3081\u3060\u30022\u5e74\u50b5\u306810\u5e74\u50b5\u306e\u5229\u56de\u308a\u5dee\u304c\u3055\u3089\u306b\u7e2e\u5c0f\u3059\u308c\u3070\u5229\u76ca\u3068\u306a\u308b\u3001\u30ab\u30fc\u30d6\u30fb\u30d5\u30e9\u30c3\u30c8\u30ca\u30fc\uff08\u30d5\u30e9\u30c3\u30c8\u5316\u3092\u72d9\u3046\u53d6\u5f15\uff09\u306b\u6a5f\u4f1a\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3002\u4eca\u9031\u306f\u3001\u30a6\u30a3\u30ea\u30a2\u30e0\u30ba\u7dcf\u88c1\u3092\u542b\u3080\u5f53\u5c40\u8005\u767a\u8a00\u306e\u3046\u3061\u3001\u30bf\u30ab\u6d3e\u7684\uff08\u5229\u4e0b\u3052\u306b\u614e\u91cd\u3001\u5f15\u304d\u7de0\u3081\u5bc4\u308a\uff09\u306a\u5185\u5bb9\u304c\u304d\u3063\u304b\u3051\u3068\u306a\u308b\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u306b\u6ce8\u610f\u3057\u305f\u3044\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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