{"id":45701,"date":"2026-04-26T20:23:18","date_gmt":"2026-04-26T20:23:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/uncategorized\/45701\/"},"modified":"2026-04-26T20:23:18","modified_gmt":"2026-04-26T20:23:18","slug":"%e4%b8%ad%e6%9d%b1%e6%83%85%e5%8b%a2%e3%81%ae%e7%b7%8a%e8%bf%ab%e5%8c%96%e3%81%a7%e3%82%82%e7%b1%b3%e6%a0%aa%e4%be%a1%e6%8c%87%e6%95%b0%e3%81%af%e9%81%8e%e5%8e%bb%e6%9c%80%e9%ab%98%e5%9c%8f%e3%80%81","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/jp-asia\/live-updates\/45701\/","title":{"rendered":"\u4e2d\u6771\u60c5\u52e2\u306e\u7dca\u8feb\u5316\u3067\u3082\u7c73\u682a\u4fa1\u6307\u6570\u306f\u904e\u53bb\u6700\u9ad8\u570f\u3001\u6295\u6a5f\u7b4b\u306f\u8feb\u308b\u666f\u6c17\u5f8c\u9000\u8b66\u6212\u3092\u4e00\u8e74"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u7c73\u56fd\u682a\u4fa1\u6307\u6570\u306f\u4e2d\u6771\u60c5\u52e2\u306e\u7dca\u5f35\u304c\u7d9a\u304f\u4e2d\u3067\u3082\u53f2\u4e0a\u6700\u9ad8\u5024\u570f\u306b\u3042\u308b\u3002\u8a18\u4e8b\u3067\u306f\u3001\u666f\u6c17\u5f8c\u9000\uff08\u30ea\u30bb\u30c3\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\uff09\u30ea\u30b9\u30af\u3001\u30a4\u30f3\u30d5\u30ec\u3001\u5229\u4e0a\u3052\u306e\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3078\u306e\u8b66\u6212\u611f\u3092\u793a\u3057\u3001\u7c73\u56fd\u682a\u304c\u5272\u9ad8\u304b\u3069\u3046\u304b\u3092\u5224\u65ad\u3059\u308b\u6307\u6a19\u3092\u6319\u3052\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8a18\u4e8b\u306f\u300c\u30d0\u30d5\u30a7\u30c3\u30c8\u6307\u6a19\uff08Buffett indicator\uff09\u300d\u3092\u3001\u7c73\u56fd\u682a\u5f0f\u5e02\u5834\u306e\u6642\u4fa1\u7dcf\u984d\uff08\u4e0a\u5834\u4f01\u696d\u306e\u682a\u4fa1\u00d7\u767a\u884c\u682a\u6570\u306e\u5408\u8a08\uff09\u3092\u7c73\u56fd\u306e\u56fd\u5185\u7dcf\u751f\u7523\uff08GDP\u3001\u4e00\u5b9a\u671f\u9593\u306b\u56fd\u5185\u3067\u751f\u307f\u51fa\u3055\u308c\u305f\u4ed8\u52a0\u4fa1\u5024\u306e\u7dcf\u984d\uff09\u3067\u5272\u3063\u305f\u6bd4\u7387\u3068\u3057\u3066\u8aac\u660e\u3059\u308b\u3002\u304a\u304a\u3080\u306d100\uff05\u524d\u5f8c\u307e\u305f\u306f\u305d\u308c\u4ee5\u4e0b\u304c\u4e00\u822c\u7684\u3067\u300170\uff5e80\uff05\u306f\u5272\u5b89\u3067\u671b\u307e\u3057\u3044\u6c34\u6e96\u3001200\uff05\u8fd1\u8fba\u307e\u305f\u306f\u305d\u308c\u4ee5\u4e0a\u306f\u5272\u9ad8\u3067\u30ea\u30b9\u30af\u304c\u9ad8\u3044\u76ee\u5b89\u3068\u3055\u308c\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n

Buffett Indicator Update<\/h3>\n

\u8a18\u4e8b\u306b\u3088\u308b\u3068\u3001\u30d0\u30d5\u30a7\u30c3\u30c8\u6307\u6a19\u306f\u73fe\u5728220\uff05\u3092\u4e0a\u56de\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002IT\u30d0\u30d6\u30eb\uff08\u30c9\u30c3\u30c8\u30b3\u30e0\u671f\uff09\u306f\u7d04150\uff05\u307e\u3067\u4e0a\u6607\u3057\u305f\u304c\u3001\u73fe\u5728\u306e\u6c34\u6e96\u306e\u65b9\u304c\u9ad8\u3044\u3068\u3082\u6307\u6458\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7d9a\u3044\u3066\u300c\u30b7\u30e9\u30fcPER\uff08Shiller PE ratio\uff09\u300d\u3092\u53d6\u308a\u4e0a\u3052\u308b\u3002\u3053\u308c\u306fS&P500\u306e\u682a\u4fa1\u6c34\u6e96\u3092\u3001\u904e\u53bb10\u5e74\u306e\u30a4\u30f3\u30d5\u30ec\u8abf\u6574\u5f8c\u5229\u76ca\uff08\u7269\u4fa1\u5909\u52d5\u306e\u5f71\u97ff\u3092\u306a\u3089\u3057\u305f\u5b9f\u8cea\u7684\u306a\u5229\u76ca\uff09\u306e\u5e73\u5747\u3068\u6bd4\u3079\u305f\u6307\u6a19\u3067\u3001\u7d04100\u5e74\u5206\u306e\u63a8\u79fb\u304c\u793a\u3055\u308c\u308b\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3002\u8a18\u4e8b\u306f\u3001\u540c\u6307\u6a19\u304c\u73fe\u572840\u8fd1\u304f\u306b\u3042\u308a\u30012000\u5e74\u4ee3\u521d\u982d\u306eIT\u30d0\u30d6\u30eb\u671f\u306b\u8fd1\u304f\u3001\u300c\u72c2\u9a12\u306e20\u5e74\u4ee3\u300d\u3092\u4e0a\u56de\u308b\u3068\u8ff0\u3079\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6b21\u306b\u3001\u5bb6\u8a08\u306e\u682a\u5f0f\u30a8\u30af\u30b9\u30dd\u30fc\u30b8\u30e3\u30fc\uff08\u5bb6\u8a08\u304c\u682a\u5f0f\u306b\u3069\u308c\u3060\u3051\u8cc7\u7523\u3092\u632f\u308a\u5411\u3051\u3066\u3044\u308b\u304b\uff09\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u3001\u682a\u5f0f\u306e\u6642\u4fa1\u8a55\u4fa1\u984d\u3092\u7c73\u56fd\u5bb6\u8a08\u306e\u7d14\u8cc7\u7523\uff08\u8cc7\u7523\u304b\u3089\u8ca0\u50b5\u3092\u5dee\u3057\u5f15\u3044\u305f\u984d\uff09\u3067\u5272\u3063\u305f\u6bd4\u7387\u3068\u3057\u3066\u8aac\u660e\u3057\u3001\u53f2\u4e0a\u6700\u9ad8\u6c34\u6e96\u3001\u307e\u305f\u306f\u305d\u308c\u306b\u8fd1\u3044\u3068\u3059\u308b\u3002AI\uff08\u4eba\u5de5\u77e5\u80fd\uff09\u95a2\u9023\u306a\u3069\u3001\u73fe\u5728\u5229\u76ca\u3092\u51fa\u3057\u3066\u3044\u306a\u3044\u4f01\u696d\u3092\u542b\u3080\u5206\u91ce\u3067\u9ad8\u3044\u8a55\u4fa1\u304c\u898b\u3089\u308c\u308b\u70b9\u306b\u3082\u89e6\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5e02\u5834\u306e\u5272\u9ad8\u611f\u306f\u3001\u30d0\u30d5\u30a7\u30c3\u30c8\u6307\u6a19\u306b\u3082\u8868\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u30022025\u5e74\u306b\u898b\u3089\u308c\u305f220\uff05\u8d85\u306e\u9ad8\u6c34\u6e96\u304b\u3089\u306f\u4f4e\u4e0b\u3057\u305f\u3082\u306e\u306e\u30012026\u5e744\u6708\u6642\u70b9\u3067\u7d04185\uff05\u306b\u3042\u308b\u3002\u3053\u308c\u306f\u9577\u671f\u5e73\u5747\u3092\u5927\u304d\u304f\u4e0a\u56de\u308a\u3001IT\u30d0\u30d6\u30eb\u6642\u306e\u30d4\u30fc\u30af\u3088\u308a\u9ad8\u3044\u6c34\u6e96\u3067\u3001\u5e02\u5834\u304c\u4e0d\u5b89\u5b9a\u306a\u72b6\u614b\u306b\u3042\u308b\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3092\u793a\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

\u307e\u305f\u3001\u30b7\u30e9\u30fcPER\uff08\u682a\u4fa1\u309210\u5e74\u5e73\u5747\u306e\u5b9f\u8cea\u5229\u76ca\u3067\u5272\u3063\u305f\u3082\u306e\uff09\u3082\u614e\u91cd\u306a\u898b\u65b9\u3092\u88cf\u4ed8\u3051\u308b\u3002\u73fe\u5728\u306f35\u524d\u5f8c\u3067\u63a8\u79fb\u3057\u3066\u304a\u308a\u3001\u904e\u53bb\u306b\u306f1929\u5e74\u306e\u6025\u843d\u30842000\u5e74\u306eIT\u30d0\u30d6\u30eb\u5d29\u58ca\u306a\u3069\u3001\u5927\u304d\u306a\u4e0b\u843d\u5c40\u9762\u306b\u5148\u884c\u3057\u3066\u898b\u3089\u308c\u305f\u6c34\u6e96\u3060\u3068\u3055\u308c\u308b\u3002\u3053\u306e\u8a55\u4fa1\u6c34\u6e96\u306f\u3001\u5c06\u6765\u306e\u671f\u5f85\u30ea\u30bf\u30fc\u30f3\u304c\u3053\u308c\u307e\u3067\u3088\u308a\u4f4e\u304f\u306a\u308a\u3084\u3059\u3044\u3053\u3068\u3092\u793a\u5506\u3059\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n

Implications For Traders<\/h3>\n

\u76f4\u8fd1\u306e\u7d4c\u6e08\u6307\u6a19\u306f\u7dca\u5f35\u611f\u3092\u9ad8\u3081\u3066\u304a\u308a\u3001\u91d1\u878d\u653f\u7b56\u306e\u5224\u65ad\u30df\u30b9\uff08\u653f\u7b56\u904e\u8aa4\uff09\u306e\u30ea\u30b9\u30af\u3092\u62bc\u3057\u4e0a\u3052\u3066\u3044\u308b\u30022026\u5e743\u6708\u306e\u7c73\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u7269\u4fa1\u6307\u6570\uff08CPI\u3001\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u304c\u8cfc\u5165\u3059\u308b\u30e2\u30ce\u3084\u30b5\u30fc\u30d3\u30b9\u306e\u4fa1\u683c\u5909\u52d5\u3092\u793a\u3059\u6307\u6a19\uff09\u306f\u3001\u30a4\u30f3\u30d5\u30ec\u7387\u304c3.1\uff05\u3068\u4e88\u60f3\u5916\u306b\u9ad8\u6b62\u307e\u308a\u3057\u305f\u3002\u3053\u308c\u306b\u3088\u308a\u3001\u7c73\u9023\u90a6\u6e96\u5099\u5236\u5ea6\u7406\u4e8b\u4f1a\uff08FRB\u3001\u7c73\u56fd\u306e\u4e2d\u592e\u9280\u884c\u306b\u3042\u305f\u308b\u7d44\u7e54\uff09\u304c\u4eca\u590f\u306b\u5229\u4e0b\u3052\u3092\u59cb\u3081\u308b\u3068\u3044\u3046\u898b\u65b9\u306f\u63fa\u3089\u3044\u3060\u3002\u5e02\u5834\u3067\u306f\u300c\u9ad8\u91d1\u5229\u304c\u9577\u671f\u5316\uff08higher for longer\uff09\u300d\u3059\u308b\u30b7\u30ca\u30ea\u30aa\u304c\u610f\u8b58\u3055\u308c\u3001\u901a\u5e38\u306f\u682a\u5f0f\u306e\u8a55\u4fa1\uff08\u30d0\u30ea\u30e5\u30a8\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\uff09\u306b\u4e0b\u62bc\u3057\u5727\u529b\u3068\u306a\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n

\u30c8\u30ec\u30fc\u30c0\u30fc\u306b\u3068\u3063\u3066\u306f\u3001\u7dca\u5f35\u304c\u9ad8\u3044\u5272\u306b\u5024\u52d5\u304d\u306e\u5927\u304d\u3055\uff08\u30dc\u30e9\u30c6\u30a3\u30ea\u30c6\u30a3\uff09\u304c\u904e\u5c0f\u8a55\u4fa1\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3002VIX\u6307\u6570\uff08\u5c06\u6765\u306e\u5909\u52d5\u306e\u5927\u304d\u3055\u306b\u5bfe\u3059\u308b\u5e02\u5834\u4e88\u60f3\u3092\u793a\u3059\u6307\u6a19\uff09\u306f\u6bd4\u8f03\u7684\u4f4e\u6c34\u6e96\u3067\u63a8\u79fb\u3057\u3066\u304a\u308a\u3001VIX\u306e\u30b3\u30fc\u30eb\u30aa\u30d7\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\uff08\u5c06\u6765\u3001\u4e00\u5b9a\u4fa1\u683c\u3067\u8cb7\u3046\u6a29\u5229\uff09\u3084\u5148\u7269\uff08\u5c06\u6765\u306e\u4fa1\u683c\u3092\u4eca\u6c7a\u3081\u3066\u53d6\u5f15\u3059\u308b\u5951\u7d04\uff09\u3092\u76f8\u5bfe\u7684\u306b\u53d6\u308a\u3084\u3059\u3044\u4fa1\u683c\u3067\u8cb7\u3048\u308b\u5c40\u9762\u3060\u3068\u3055\u308c\u308b\u3002\u3053\u308c\u3089\u306f\u5e02\u5834\u5fc3\u7406\u306e\u6025\u5909\u3084\u6025\u843d\u5c40\u9762\u3067\u5229\u76ca\u306b\u3064\u306a\u304c\u308a\u3084\u3059\u3044\u3002<\/p>\n

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