{"id":17861,"date":"2025-03-07T09:24:53","date_gmt":"2025-03-07T09:24:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=17861"},"modified":"2025-03-07T09:24:53","modified_gmt":"2025-03-07T09:24:53","slug":"can-you-really-predict-the-market-a-look-at-probability-in-trading","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/jp-asia\/featured\/17861\/","title":{"rendered":"\u672c\u5f53\u306b\u5e02\u5834\u3092\u4e88\u6e2c\u3067\u304d\u308b\u306e\u304b\uff1f\u53d6\u5f15\u306b\u304a\u3051\u308b\u78ba\u7387\u306e\u8003\u5bdf"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"559\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/jp-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/29\/2025\/03\/image_fx_-5-1024x559.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-17877\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/jp-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/29\/2025\/03\/image_fx_-5-1024x559.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/jp-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/29\/2025\/03\/image_fx_-5-300x164.png 300w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/jp-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/29\/2025\/03\/image_fx_-5-768x419.png 768w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/jp-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/29\/2025\/03\/image_fx_-5-500x273.png 500w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/jp-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/29\/2025\/03\/image_fx_-5-400x218.png 400w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/jp-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/29\/2025\/03\/image_fx_-5-350x191.png 350w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/jp-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/29\/2025\/03\/image_fx_-5-200x109.png 200w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/jp-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/29\/2025\/03\/image_fx_-5.png 1408w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<pre id=\"tw-target-text\" class=\"wp-block-preformatted\">\u5b8c\u74a7\u306a\u30a8\u30f3\u30c8\u30ea\u30fc\u30dd\u30a4\u30f3\u30c8\u3092\u7279\u5b9a\u3057\u3001\u3059\u3079\u3066\u306e\u5927\u304d\u306a\u52d5\u304d\u3092\u6349\u3048\u3001\u3044\u3064\u8cb7\u3046\u304b\u58f2\u308b\u304b\u3092\u6b63\u78ba\u306b\u77e5\u308b\u3053\u3068\u306f\u3001\u5922\u306e\u3088\u3046\u3067\u3059\u306d\u3002\u305d\u308c\u306f\u304a\u305d\u3089\u304f\u3001\u307e\u3055\u306b\u305d\u306e\u901a\u308a\u3060\u304b\u3089\u3067\u3059\u3002\u671f\u5f85\u3092\u88cf\u5207\u3063\u3066\u7533\u3057\u8a33\u306a\u3044\u306e\u3067\u3059\u304c\u3001\u8ab0\u3082\u5e02\u5834\u3092\u78ba\u5b9f\u306b\u4e88\u6e2c\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u306f\u3067\u304d\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3002\n\n\u91d1\u878d\u306e\u4e16\u754c\u3092\u52d5\u304b\u3059\u8981\u56e0\u306f\u6570\u591a\u304f\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002\u653f\u6cbb\u7684\u6df7\u4e71\u3001\u81ea\u7136\u707d\u5bb3\u3001\u4e2d\u592e\u9280\u884c\u306e\u6c7a\u5b9a\u3001\u5e02\u5834\u611f\u60c5\u306a\u3069\u3001\u307b\u3093\u306e\u4e00\u4f8b\u3067\u3059\u3002\u771f\u5b9f\u306f\u3001\u30c6\u30af\u30cb\u30ab\u30eb\u6307\u6a19\u3084\u30d5\u30a1\u30f3\u30c0\u30e1\u30f3\u30bf\u30eb\u5206\u6790\u3067\u6b21\u306b\u4f55\u304c\u8d77\u3053\u308b\u304b\u3092\u4e00\u8cab\u3057\u3066\u4e88\u6e2c\u3067\u304d\u308b\u3082\u306e\u306f\u3042\u308a\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3002<\/pre>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">\u30c8\u30ec\u30fc\u30c0\u30fc\u304c\u78ba\u5b9f\u6027\u3092\u6c42\u3081\u308b\u7406\u7531<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u4eba\u9593\u306f\u30d1\u30bf\u30fc\u30f3\u3068\u4e88\u6e2c\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3092\u6c42\u3081\u308b\u3088\u3046\u306b\u3067\u304d\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u3060\u304b\u3089\u3053\u305d\u3001\u79c1\u305f\u3061\u306f\u96f2\u306e\u4e2d\u306b\u898b\u6163\u308c\u305f\u5f62\u3092\u6307\u6458\u3059\u308b\u306e\u3067\u3059\u3002\u8ad6\u7406\u3068\u69cb\u9020\u306f\u79c1\u305f\u3061\u3092\u5b89\u5fc3\u3055\u305b\u307e\u3059\u3002X \u304c\u8d77\u304d\u308c\u3070\u3001Y \u3082\u8d77\u304d\u308b\u3068\u4fe1\u3058\u305f\u3044\u306e\u3067\u3059\u3002\u3053\u308c\u306f\u307b\u3068\u3093\u3069\u306e\u3053\u3068\u306b\u5f53\u3066\u306f\u307e\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002\u8db3\u306b\u91cd\u3044\u3082\u306e\u3092\u843d\u3068\u3057\u305f\u3089\u3001\u75db\u3044\u306e\u306f\u308f\u304b\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002\u554f\u984c\u306f\u3001\u5e02\u5834\u304c\u56fa\u5b9a\u3055\u308c\u305f\u30eb\u30fc\u30eb\u306b\u5f93\u308f\u306a\u3044\u3053\u3068\u3067\u3059\u3002\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"262\" height=\"200\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/jp-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/29\/2025\/03\/200.gif\" alt=\"Season 1 Cloud GIF by The Simpsons\" class=\"wp-image-17879\" style=\"width:462px;height:auto\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>GIF: <\/em>\u6c17\u307e\u3050\u308c\u3067\u7a81\u98db\u306a\u96f2\u3092\u773a\u3081\u308b\u30bb\u30c3\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u3068\u306f\u7570\u306a\u308a\u3001\u53d6\u5f15\u3067\u306f\u3001\u6642\u306b\u306f\u8ad6\u7406\u7684\u306a\u7d50\u679c\u304c\u3059\u3079\u3066\u306b\u5f53\u3066\u306f\u307e\u308b\u3068\u306f\u9650\u3089\u306a\u3044\u3053\u3068\u3092\u53d7\u3051\u5165\u308c\u308b\u5fc5\u8981\u304c\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3059<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n<p>\u591a\u304f\u306e\u65b0\u9032\u30c8\u30ec\u30fc\u30c0\u30fc\u304c\u9665\u308a\u304c\u3061\u306a\u7f60\u306f\u3001\u805e\u3053\u3048\u306e\u3044\u3044\u300c\u5b8c\u74a7\u306a\u6226\u7565\u300d\u3001\u3064\u307e\u308a\u52dd\u5229\u3092\u4fdd\u8a3c\u3059\u308b\u795e\u8a71\u7684\u306a\u7d76\u5bfe\u78ba\u5b9f\u306a\u30b7\u30b9\u30c6\u30e0\u3067\u3059\u3002\u5f7c\u3089\u306f\u6307\u6a19\u3092\u8ffd\u3044\u304b\u3051\u3001\u8a2d\u5b9a\u3092\u5fae\u8abf\u6574\u3057\u3001\u30c1\u30e3\u30fc\u30c8\u3092\u904e\u5ea6\u306b\u5206\u6790\u3057\u59cb\u3081\u307e\u3059\u3002\u6d17\u7df4\u3055\u308c\u308c\u3070\u3055\u308c\u308b\u307b\u3069\u3001\u30b7\u30b9\u30c6\u30e0\u304c\u3088\u308a\u6b63\u78ba\u306b\u306a\u308b\u3068\u4fe1\u3058\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u3084\u304c\u3066\u3001\u5f7c\u3089\u306f\u3069\u308c\u3060\u3051\u5206\u6790\u3057\u3066\u3082\u3001\u77ed\u671f\u7684\u306b\u306f\u5e02\u5834\u306f\u5e38\u306b\u4e88\u6e2c\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3053\u3068\u306b\u6c17\u3065\u304d\u307e\u3059\u3002\u3059\u3079\u3066\u306e\u52d5\u304d\u3092\u78ba\u5b9f\u306b\u4e88\u6e2c\u3057\u3088\u3046\u3068\u3059\u308b\u306e\u306f\u3001\u30b7\u30b7\u30e5\u30d5\u30a9\u30b9\u306e\u82e6\u884c\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u30c8\u30ec\u30fc\u30c0\u30fc\u306e\u4e2d\u306b\u306f\u3001\u3069\u3053\u304b\u306b 100% \u6b63\u78ba\u306a\u6226\u7565\u304c\u5b58\u5728\u3059\u308b\u3068\u4fe1\u3058\u3066\u3044\u308b\u4eba\u3082\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u5f7c\u3089\u306f\u300180\uff5e90% \u306e\u52dd\u7387\u3092\u8a87\u308b\u6226\u7565\u3092\u63a2\u3057\u3001\u305d\u306e\u79d8\u5bc6\u3092\u89e3\u660e\u3057\u305f\u3068\u8003\u3048\u307e\u3059\u3002\u3057\u304b\u3057\u3001\u30d8\u30c3\u30b8\u30d5\u30a1\u30f3\u30c9 \u30de\u30cd\u30fc\u30b8\u30e3\u30fc\u3001\u719f\u7df4\u3057\u305f\u5c02\u9580\u5bb6\u3001\u30c8\u30c3\u30d7\u30af\u30e9\u30b9\u306e\u30a2\u30eb\u30b4\u30ea\u30ba\u30e0 \u30c8\u30ec\u30fc\u30c0\u30fc\u306a\u3069\u3001\u6700\u9ad8\u306e\u30c8\u30ec\u30fc\u30c0\u30fc\u3067\u3055\u3048\u3001\u52dd\u7387\u306f 50\uff5e60% \u306b\u904e\u304e\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3002\u30c8\u30ec\u30fc\u30c7\u30a3\u30f3\u30b0: \u78ba\u7387\u306e\u30b2\u30fc\u30e0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong>\u5e02\u5834\u306f\u6b63\u3057\u3044\u304b\u3069\u3046\u304b\u3067\u306f\u306a\u304f\u3001\u78ba\u7387\u3092\u7ba1\u7406\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>60% \u306e\u78ba\u7387\u3067\u8868\u304c\u51fa\u308b\u3088\u3046\u306b\u91cd\u307f\u4ed8\u3051\u3055\u308c\u305f\u30b3\u30a4\u30f3\u304c\u3042\u308b\u3068\u60f3\u50cf\u3057\u3066\u304f\u3060\u3055\u3044\u3002\u7d71\u8a08\u7684\u306b\u6709\u5229\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3053\u3068\u306f\u308f\u304b\u3063\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u304c\u3001\u3060\u304b\u3089\u3068\u3044\u3063\u3066\u6bce\u56de\u52dd\u3066\u308b\u308f\u3051\u3067\u306f\u3042\u308a\u307e\u305b\u3093\u30023 \u56de\u9023\u7d9a\u3067\u88cf\u304c\u51fa\u308b\u304b\u3082\u3057\u308c\u307e\u305b\u3093\u304c\u3001100 \u56de\u4ee5\u4e0a\u6295\u3052\u308b\u3068\u3001\u8868\u304c\u52dd\u3064\u78ba\u7387\u306f\u7d04 60 \u56de\u306b\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"240\" height=\"200\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/jp-asia\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/29\/2025\/03\/200-7c2e0eee-5aee-4a29-826f-b45c4e97d96a.gif\" alt=\"Season 4 Coin Toss GIF by Friends\" class=\"wp-image-17880\" style=\"width:450px;height:auto\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>GIF: \u3081\u304f\u308b\u3001\u3081\u304f\u308b\u3002\u30b9\u30ea\u30c3\u30d7\u306b\u3042\u307e\u308a\u96c6\u4e2d\u3057\u3059\u304e\u306a\u3044\u3088\u3046\u306b\u3002<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n<p>\u30c8\u30ec\u30fc\u30c7\u30a3\u30f3\u30b0\u3082\u540c\u3058\u3067\u3059\u3002\u5229\u76ca\u306e\u51fa\u308b\u6226\u7565\u3067\u3042\u3063\u3066\u3082\u640d\u5931\u306f\u767a\u751f\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002\u306a\u305c\u306a\u3089\u3001100% \u4fdd\u8a3c\u3055\u308c\u305f\u30bb\u30c3\u30c8\u30a2\u30c3\u30d7\u306f\u5b58\u5728\u3057\u306a\u3044\u304b\u3089\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u52dd\u7387 60% \u306e\u6226\u7565\u3092\u4f7f\u7528\u3059\u308b\u30c8\u30ec\u30fc\u30c0\u30fc\u306f\u3001100 \u56de\u306e\u53d6\u5f15\u306e\u3046\u3061 40 \u56de\u306f\u640d\u5931\u306b\u306a\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3092\u7406\u89e3\u3059\u308b\u5fc5\u8981\u304c\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002\u554f\u984c\u306f\u3001\u307b\u3068\u3093\u3069\u306e\u30c8\u30ec\u30fc\u30c0\u30fc\u304c\u77ed\u671f\u7684\u306a\u640d\u5931\u306b\u611f\u60c5\u7684\u306b\u53cd\u5fdc\u3057\u3001\u78ba\u7387\u304c\u767a\u63ee\u3055\u308c\u308b\u524d\u306b\u5805\u5b9f\u306a\u6226\u7565\u3092\u653e\u68c4\u3057\u3066\u3057\u307e\u3046\u3053\u3068\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong>\u52dd\u8005\u3067\u3082\u8ca0\u3051\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u3042\u308b\u7406\u7531<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u5f37\u529b\u306a\u6226\u7565\u3067\u3042\u3063\u3066\u3082\u8ca0\u3051\u304c\u7d9a\u304f\u3053\u3068\u304c\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002\u9577\u304f\u53d6\u5f15\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3068\u3001\u6b21\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306a\u7d4c\u9a13\u3092\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u306b\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>5 \u56de\u4ee5\u4e0a\u9023\u7d9a\u3057\u3066\u8ca0\u3051\u308b\u53d6\u5f15 (\u6226\u7565\u304c\u5229\u76ca\u3092\u751f\u3093\u3067\u3044\u3066\u3082)\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u4f55\u3082\u3046\u307e\u304f\u3044\u304b\u306a\u3044\u3088\u3046\u306a\u6642\u671f\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u81ea\u4fe1\u904e\u5270\u306b\u306a\u308b\u307b\u3069\u306e\u52dd\u3061\u304c\u7d9a\u304d\u3001\u305d\u306e\u5f8c\u7a81\u7136\u9006\u8ee2\u3059\u308b\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>\u3053\u308c\u304c\u3001\u30ea\u30b9\u30af\u7ba1\u7406\u304c\u52dd\u7387\u3088\u308a\u3082\u5e38\u306b\u91cd\u8981\u306b\u306a\u308b\u7406\u7531\u3067\u3059\u30022\u30013\u56de\u9023\u7d9a\u3067\u8ca0\u3051\u3066\u7cbe\u795e\u3068\u6c17\u529b\u304c\u5d29\u58ca\u3057\u305f\u3089\u3001\u65b9\u7a0b\u5f0f\u306e\u30d0\u30e9\u30f3\u30b9\u3092\u3068\u308b\u52dd\u3061\u30c8\u30ec\u30fc\u30c9\u306b\u305f\u3069\u308a\u7740\u304f\u3053\u3068\u306f\u6c7a\u3057\u3066\u3067\u304d\u306a\u3044\u304b\u3082\u3057\u308c\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u60f3\u50cf\u3057\u3066\u307f\u3066\u304f\u3060\u3055\u3044\u3002\u30ab\u30b8\u30ce\u306f\u3059\u3079\u3066\u306e\u8ced\u3051\u306b\u52dd\u3064\u308f\u3051\u3067\u306f\u3042\u308a\u307e\u305b\u3093\u304c\u3001\u4f55\u5343\u3082\u306e\u30b2\u30fc\u30e0\u306b\u5bfe\u3057\u3066\u512a\u4f4d\u6027\u3092\u6301\u3063\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u6642\u9593\u306e\u7d4c\u904e\u3068\u3068\u3082\u306b\u3001\u30aa\u30c3\u30ba\u306f\u5e38\u306b\u30ab\u30b8\u30ce\u306b\u6709\u5229\u306b\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\">\u30d0\u30c3\u30af\u30c6\u30b9\u30c8: 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\u30c9\u30eb\u3092\u30ea\u30b9\u30af\u306b\u3055\u3089\u3057\u3066 10 \u30c9\u30eb\u3092\u7a3c\u304e\u307e\u3059\u30021 \u56de\u306e\u5927\u304d\u306a\u640d\u5931\u3067\u3001\u3059\u3079\u3066\u306e\u5229\u76ca\u304c\u6d88\u3048\u3066\u3057\u307e\u3046\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u304c\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u30c8\u30ec\u30fc\u30c0\u30fc B \u306f\u300140% \u306e\u78ba\u7387\u3067\u3057\u304b\u52dd\u3061\u307e\u305b\u3093\u304c\u3001100 \u30c9\u30eb\u3092\u30ea\u30b9\u30af\u306b\u3055\u3089\u3057\u3066 300 \u30c9\u30eb\u3092\u7a3c\u304e\u307e\u3059\u3002\u52dd\u7387\u306f\u4f4e\u304f\u3066\u3082\u3001\u30c8\u30ec\u30fc\u30c0\u30fc A \u3088\u308a\u512a\u308c\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>\u52dd\u7387\u304c 40% 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