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by VT Markets
Oct 16, 2026
予想を上回る米CPIを受け、当初は米ドルと米国債利回りが上昇したが、いずれの動きもその後は失速した。市場が追加的な米連邦準備制度理事会（FRB）の金融引き締めリスクを再評価したためだ。DXY指数は上昇分を維持できず、FRBの利上げ確率（インプライド）は巻き戻された。トレーダーの関心が、追加的な政策引き締めによる成長率や企業収益への下押し圧力に一段と向かっていることを示唆する。
政治的不確実性も米国株の重しとなり、ひいてはドル高基調の広がりを抑制した。中間選挙が近づくなか、市場では「共和党が下院を落とす一方で上院は維持する」という従来の基本シナリオに疑義が生じ始め、予測市場は民主党が上下両院を制する「民主党の圧勝」リスクの上昇を示した。このシナリオは、規制強化への警戒、政策の行き詰まりの深刻化、そして高水準にある株式バリュエーションの持続性に対する懸念と結び付けられてきた。
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