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by VT Markets
Aug 27, 2026
ECBは現在、9月に最後となる25bpの利上げを実施し、預金金利を2.50%に引き上げた後、2027年まで同水準で据え置くとの見方が優勢となっている。従来想定していた「2027年に金融政策が緩和方向に転じ、金利が2.00%まで引き下げられる」との見通しは取り下げられた。
この修正は、成長の基調が従来想定より底堅いとの評価に基づくもので、来年の利下げを正当化する材料が後退した。
同時に、基調的インフレは抑制されていると説明されており、追加の引き締めはもう1回の利上げにとどまるとの見立てと整合的だ。この見通しに対するリスクは概ね均衡しているとみられている。
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