by VT Markets
Oct 21, 2026
カナダ銀行は次回会合を前に、成長とインフレのトレードオフがより厳しくなっている。第3四半期のカナダ企業景況感調査（Business Outlook Survey）では、8月にかけて状況の引き締まりが示された一方、カナダ・米国の通商協議が決裂した後はセンチメントが軟化した。調査期間中はインフレ期待が上昇し、国債利回りの上昇や企業・家計の借入コスト増を通じて金融環境が引き締まる局面と重なり、金融政策の見通しを一段と複雑にしている。
総裁のタカ派的な発言を受け、10月に動くとの市場予想は強まった。ただ、直近のデータは強弱入り混じる。9月の消費者物価指数（CPI）ではコアインフレ指標の平均が1.9%となった一方、別の消費者調査では支出意欲の弱まりが示された。
大手銀行の基本シナリオは、利上げは2027年まで見送られるというものだが、リスクバランスは前倒し方向に傾いているとも認めており、早ければ次回会合での方向転換の可能性もある。
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