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by VT Markets
Sep 21, 2026
日銀が金曜日にレートチェックを実施したとの報道を受け、ドル／円は一時157.0を下回った。この動きは、日本当局が特定の水準を防衛するのではなく、一定のx日間の移動ウィンドウで円相場の変動スピードを監視していることを示唆する。固定的な「防衛ライン」を設定すれば、市場に試される明確な一線を与えかねないためだ。
政策スタンスの乖離が引き続き最大の要因となっている。今月、米連邦準備制度理事会（FRB）は日銀よりもタカ派的な姿勢を示しており、この環境下ではドル／円が一段と上昇する余地が残る。160.0への回帰も、足元の条件と整合的だ。
一方で、為替介入のリスクは高まっているとされる。
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