{"id":23826,"date":"2025-09-09T07:56:36","date_gmt":"2025-09-09T07:56:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=23826"},"modified":"2025-09-09T07:56:36","modified_gmt":"2025-09-09T07:56:36","slug":"oil-ticks-higher-amid-cautious-supply-outlook","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/it-eu\/analysis\/oil-ticks-higher-amid-cautious-supply-outlook\/","title":{"rendered":"Oil ticks higher amid cautious supply outlook"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"536\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/it-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2025\/09\/13-2-1024x536.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-23829\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/it-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2025\/09\/13-2-1024x536.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/it-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2025\/09\/13-2-300x157.png 300w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/it-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2025\/09\/13-2-768x402.png 768w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/it-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2025\/09\/13-2-500x262.png 500w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/it-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2025\/09\/13-2-400x209.png 400w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/it-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2025\/09\/13-2-350x183.png 350w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/it-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2025\/09\/13-2-200x105.png 200w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/it-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2025\/09\/13-2.png 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Oil prices remain pulled between shifting OPEC+ decisions, geopolitical risks, and uneven demand growth. With politics and policy now weighing as heavily as fundamentals, traders face a market shaped by uncertainty and rapid shifts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong>OPEC+ output cutback fuels price gains<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Oil markets edged higher on Tuesday, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbing to $62.58 and Brent crude reaching $66.37.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The gains followed a smaller-than-anticipated supply increase from OPEC+, which announced an additional 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) for October, down from 555,000 bpd in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">OPEC+ countries announced plans at the weekend to further increase their oil production, even though the market already looks oversupplied. Find out what&#39;s moving the markets \u2014 and why \u2014 with Market Talk, Reuters&#39; daily chat with an investor, economist or market analyst <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/NZCwJVZ6Sw\">pic.twitter.com\/NZCwJVZ6Sw<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Reuters (@Reuters) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Reuters\/status\/1965082704606556548?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 8, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The measured adjustment suggests the alliance is taking a more conservative stance amid ongoing uncertainty in supply and demand balances.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Market watchers had anticipated a larger output rise, but the restrained approach highlights weaker demand growth, oversupply concerns, and the need to safeguard price stability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong>Russia sanctions back in spotlight<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The supply picture was further tightened after Russia launched its most extensive air assault on Ukraine in months, reviving the possibility of tougher Western sanctions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Russia launched its largest air attack on Ukraine since the start of the war, the Ukrainian air force said, firing over 800 drones and 13 missiles across the country. Authorities said it killed at least four and set fire to the seat of government <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/exu05Y20zr\">https:\/\/t.co\/exu05Y20zr<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/MBGctb7aLK\">pic.twitter.com\/MBGctb7aLK<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Reuters (@Reuters) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Reuters\/status\/1964846143432736972?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 8, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>US President Donald Trump indicated his willingness to intensify restrictions, while European Union officials met American counterparts to discuss coordinated energy measures. Any such move could restrict global oil flows and add upside pressure to crude prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong>Technical analysis<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Crude oil (CL-OIL) is currently trading at $62.64, up 0.34%, yet technical indicators continue to point to weakness.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>After peaking around $77.90 in July, prices have steadily drifted lower, with the $62\u201363 band now serving as key support.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Short-term moving averages (5, 10, 30) remain aligned bearishly, with prices struggling to break and hold above them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"446\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/it-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2025\/09\/image-10-1024x446-1.jpeg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-23828\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/it-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2025\/09\/image-10-1024x446-1.jpeg 1024w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/it-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2025\/09\/image-10-1024x446-1-300x131.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/it-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2025\/09\/image-10-1024x446-1-768x335.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/it-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2025\/09\/image-10-1024x446-1-500x218.jpeg 500w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/it-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2025\/09\/image-10-1024x446-1-400x174.jpeg 400w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/it-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2025\/09\/image-10-1024x446-1-350x152.jpeg 350w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/it-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2025\/09\/image-10-1024x446-1-200x87.jpeg 200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Picture: WTI crude oil consolidating near $62-63 support, with bearish moving averages and weak MACD momentum signalling downside risk as seen on the <a href=\"https:\/\/apps.apple.com\/au\/app\/vt-markets-online-trading\/id1372647263\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"VT Markets app\">VT Markets app<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The MACD indicator is flat but still below zero, signalling negative momentum. Recovery attempts have repeatedly failed under $67, underscoring sustained selling pressure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If WTI fails to defend the $62 threshold, a decline towards $60\u201359\u2013levels last seen in early Q2\u2013remains possible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Conversely, reclaiming $67 would be needed to revive short-term bullish momentum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Fundamental factors, including OPEC+ supply discipline and shifts in US inventory data, will remain central to price direction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong>Cautious forecast<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The oil market remains highly sensitive to both supply disruptions and monetary policy shifts. A confirmed interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week could lift demand expectations, while tougher sanctions on Russia would further squeeze global supply.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That said, demand growth is still trailing earlier forecasts, and oversupply concerns persist, keeping rallies under pressure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Traders should also monitor China\u2019s economic recovery pace, as weaker industrial demand could weigh on prices despite geopolitical risks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In addition, seasonal refinery maintenance in the US and Europe could temper near-term crude demand, offsetting potential supply tightness.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Overall, without a decisive catalyst\u2013such as sharper production cuts, stronger-than-expected consumption, or major geopolitical escalations\u2013any rebound in oil prices is likely to be limited and vulnerable to swift corrections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Click <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.net\/trade-now\/?utm_campaign=account_c&amp;utm_source=dma&amp;utm_medium=website\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"here\">here<\/a> to open account and start trading.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Oil prices remain pulled between shifting OPEC+ decisions, geopolitical risks, and uneven demand growth. With politics and policy now weighing as heavily as fundamentals, traders face a market shaped by uncertainty and rapid shifts. OPEC+ output cutback fuels price gains Oil markets edged higher on Tuesday, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbing to $62.58 and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/it-eu\/analysis\/oil-ticks-higher-amid-cautious-supply-outlook\/\" class=\"read-more\">Continue Reading<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":102,"featured_media":23829,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[30],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-23826","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/it-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23826","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/it-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/it-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/it-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/102"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/it-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=23826"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/it-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23826\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/it-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/23829"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/it-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=23826"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/it-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=23826"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/it-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=23826"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}