{"id":23741,"date":"2025-09-01T09:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-09-01T09:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=23741"},"modified":"2025-09-01T09:00:00","modified_gmt":"2025-09-01T09:00:00","slug":"week-ahead-fed-signals-september-easing","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/it-eu\/week_ahead\/week-ahead-fed-signals-september-easing\/","title":{"rendered":"Week ahead: Fed signals September easing"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This week, markets focused on the Federal Reserve\u2019s dovish signals and rising geopolitical tensions. Fed Governor Waller backed a 25 bps rate cut in September, with further easing likely over the next three to six months. However, political risks grew as Tim Cook sued Trump and named Powell as a defendant, raising questions about Fed independence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

KEY INDICATORS<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Fed policy turning dovish, but political risks to independence are rising<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tim Cook filed a lawsuit against Trump over the dismissal controversy, with Powell also named as a defendant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A Biden-nominated judge will hold a hearing this Friday, with the case expected to reach the Supreme Court.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump\u2019s Fed nominee Milan is likely to be confirmed before the September decision.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fed Governor Waller supports a 25 bps cut in September and expects further cuts over the next three to six months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

IMF official: Markets still trust Fed independence, but risks remain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ECB\u2019s Rehn: Trump\u2019s pressure on the Fed\u2019s independence could have major global consequences.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trade tensions persist, limited signs of de-escalation<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The EU proposes scrapping some US tariffs to secure lower car tariffs from Washington.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

India\u2019s Russian oil imports in September are expected to rise by 10\u201320%<\/a> month-on-month despite US threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The US plans to impose flat parcel tariffs of $80\u2013$200 within six months, later shifting to specific rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

German Chancellor Merz: No meeting between Zelensky and Putin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Europe proposes a 40 km frontline buffer zone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Political and economic events<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

US non-farm payrolls report expected Friday, forecast at about 78,000 new jobs; weak data could push the Fed closer to rate cuts and is highly watched as a key labour market signal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fed Governor Waller backs rate cuts, expecting 125\u2013150 bps over the next three to six months; markets price in a 75\u201385% chance of a September cut, with further easing likely in 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Key economic releases this week include PMIs, ISM manufacturing, eurozone inflation, and Brazil GDP; data will gauge global growth and inflation pressures and may shift market sentiment ahead of payrolls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jim O\u2019Neill named CDC head, prompting resignations and backlash; Trump ends Harris\u2019s Secret Service protection, drawing official criticism.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

European Council President Ant\u00f3nio Costa visits multiple EU states on the EU \u201ctour des capitales.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

SCO summit gathers 20+ world leaders; China highlights regional influence with North Korea, while Xi Jinping hosts Putin and Kim Jong-un at a Beijing military parade, signalling strengthened anti-US alliances in Asia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

MARKET MOVERS<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

EUR\/USD<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n