{"id":23525,"date":"2025-07-31T10:00:14","date_gmt":"2025-07-31T10:00:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/?p=23525"},"modified":"2025-07-31T10:00:14","modified_gmt":"2025-07-31T10:00:14","slug":"dollar-rally-cools-as-markets-await-fed-signals","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/it-eu\/analysis\/dollar-rally-cools-as-markets-await-fed-signals\/","title":{"rendered":"Dollar rally cools as markets await Fed signals"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"536\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/it-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2025\/07\/16-10-1024x536.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-23527\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/it-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2025\/07\/16-10-1024x536.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/it-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2025\/07\/16-10-300x157.png 300w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/it-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2025\/07\/16-10-768x402.png 768w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/it-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2025\/07\/16-10-500x262.png 500w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/it-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2025\/07\/16-10-400x209.png 400w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/it-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2025\/07\/16-10-350x183.png 350w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/it-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2025\/07\/16-10-200x105.png 200w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/it-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2025\/07\/16-10.png 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The US dollar saw a change in direction this week as focus shifted from interest rate expectations to growing global risks. Strong economic data supported early gains, but renewed trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainty prompted a more cautious market outlook.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong>Dollar slips as risk sentiment overtakes policy focus<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The US dollar saw a modest retreat on Thursday, following a midweek rally that had driven the Dollar Index (USDX) to a two-month peak of 99.983.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>By the end of the session, the index had slipped 0.2%, closing at 99.606 as market attention shifted from monetary policy cues to escalating global risk factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Powell says Fed does not consider government interest rate costs in policy debate <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/mNqYgZF1cC\">https:\/\/t.co\/mNqYgZF1cC<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/mNqYgZF1cC\">https:\/\/t.co\/mNqYgZF1cC<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Reuters (@Reuters) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Reuters\/status\/1950753445410910702?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">July 31, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The greenback\u2019s earlier gains were fuelled by stronger-than-anticipated US economic indicators, including upbeat private payroll figures and a GDP reading that exceeded forecasts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This positive data underpinned the dollar during the week, with additional support coming from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell\u2019s measured tone at the latest policy meeting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While interest rates remained unchanged, Powell refrained from signalling any clear direction for potential rate cuts, leaving investors uncertain about the outlook for September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Thursday&#8217;s trading sentiment was largely shaped by comments from President Trump, who confirmed <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2025-07-31\/trump-unleashes-flurry-of-tariff-deal-surprises-on-eve-of-trade-deadline\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" title=\"there would be no further extension to Friday\u2019s trade deadline\">there would be no further extension to Friday\u2019s trade deadline<\/a>. He also announced new 50% tariffs targeting Brazil and copper-related imports.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Additionally, Trump criticised Canada\u2019s recognition of a Palestinian state, suggesting it could complicate ongoing trade discussions \u2013 introducing fresh uncertainty for North American economic relations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong>Technical analysis<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>After rebounding from the 98.40 support area on 30 July, the USDX embarked on a steady upward trajectory, establishing a bullish pattern marked by a series of higher lows.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the early hours of 31 July, the index broke decisively above 99.20, sparking a rapid move that topped out at 99.714.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, the rally lost steam just above that resistance level, prompting a minor retracement toward the 99.35 zone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"438\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/it-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2025\/07\/image-34-1024x438.jpeg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-23526\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/it-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2025\/07\/image-34-1024x438.jpeg 1024w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/it-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2025\/07\/image-34-300x128.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/it-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2025\/07\/image-34-768x329.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/it-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2025\/07\/image-34-500x214.jpeg 500w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/it-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2025\/07\/image-34-400x171.jpeg 400w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/it-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2025\/07\/image-34-350x150.jpeg 350w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/it-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2025\/07\/image-34-200x86.jpeg 200w, https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/it-eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/20\/2025\/07\/image-34.jpeg 1280w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Picture: USDX rally stalls below 99.75 as momentum eases, as seen on the <a href=\"https:\/\/apps.apple.com\/au\/app\/vt-markets-online-trading\/id1372647263?mt=8\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"VT Markets app\">VT Markets app<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Following the peak, short-term moving averages (5, 10, and 30) began to converge and slope downward, with both the 5- and 10-period MAs crossing below the 30-period \u2013 an early indication of potential trend reversal. Currently, the price is consolidating near this moving average cluster, attempting to establish fresh support.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The MACD histogram highlights a clear decline in bullish momentum. Green bars are tapering off, while the MACD line approaches a bearish crossover beneath the signal line. Should this crossover confirm, it may reinforce the likelihood of near-term downside movement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At present, 99.20 represents the first key level of support, with 98.90 serving as a secondary target should selling pressure increase.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Conversely, a decisive close above 99.60 would negate the pullback scenario and open the door for a potential retest of 99.71 or even a push toward the psychological barrier at 100.00.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading has-medium-font-size\"><strong>Cautious forecast<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>A sustained break below 99.30 would likely bring the 99.00 region into focus as the next key area of support, potentially opening the door for a deeper correction if bearish momentum accelerates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Below this level, further downside could see price action test 98.90 or even revisit the 98.40 zone that previously acted as a strong base.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Conversely, a decisive rebound above 99.60 would suggest that bullish sentiment remains intact, possibly paving the way for a retest of 99.71 and a push toward the psychologically significant 100.00 mark.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A break above this threshold could attract renewed buying interest and signal a continuation of the broader uptrend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ultimately, the near-term direction of the US dollar hinges on the outcome of Friday\u2019s trade negotiations, which may reshape market sentiment significantly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Any unexpected policy announcements or geopolitical tensions \u2013 particularly from the White House \u2013 could inject volatility into currency markets and influence dollar flows in the sessions ahead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Click <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.net\/trade-now\/?utm_campaign=account_c&amp;utm_source=dma&amp;utm_medium=website\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" title=\"here\">here<\/a> to open account and start trading.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The US dollar saw a change in direction this week as focus shifted from interest rate expectations to growing global risks. Strong economic data supported early gains, but renewed trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainty prompted a more cautious market outlook. Dollar slips as risk sentiment overtakes policy focus The US dollar saw a modest retreat <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/it-eu\/analysis\/dollar-rally-cools-as-markets-await-fed-signals\/\" class=\"read-more\">Continue Reading<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":102,"featured_media":23527,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[30],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-23525","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/it-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23525","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/it-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/it-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/it-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/102"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/it-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=23525"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/it-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23525\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/it-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/23527"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/it-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=23525"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/it-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=23525"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/it-eu\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=23525"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}