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Ethereum has surged past the $3,000 mark, driven by record ETF inflows, and now faces a critical juncture shaped by two forces: upcoming U.S. inflation data and major crypto-related legislative activity in Washington.
ETF Momentum Pushes Ethereum Higher
Ethereum’s recent rally is due to BlackRock’s iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA), which recorded an unprecedented $300 million in inflows last Thursday, its largest single-day intake to date. This brought ETHA’s total assets under management to $5.6 billion, reinforcing its dominance among U.S.-listed Ethereum ETFs. Overall, Ethereum-focused ETFs attracted $703 million last week, their third-largest weekly inflow since inception.
ETHA’s average trading volume has also risen dramatically, reaching 18.83 million shares over the past 30 days, up from around 13 million in early June. On Wednesday alone, 43 million ETHA shares were traded, marking the highest daily volume since its launch.
Cumulatively, ETHA has gained over $1.2 billion in net inflows since early June, including $159 million last Tuesday alone, the highest daily net inflow since June 11. These figures suggest robust institutional interest and not merely short-term speculation.
Options Market Signals Strong Bullish Sentiment
The options market reflects similarly bullish expectations. Open interest in ETHA options has hit a 12-month high, with call options far outnumbering puts. For the July 18 expiry, traders are concentrating on the $22 strike (approx. $3,000 ETH), with growing interest at $23 and $24 implying expectations of a further rally toward $3,200.
Later expiries (July 25, August 1, and August 8) show consistent call-heavy positions, with traders betting on ETH pushing toward $3,300 and beyond. Downside protection remains minimal, underscoring widespread optimism for further gains.
Washington’s “Crypto Week” May Redefine the Landscape
Ethereum’s surge coincides with a crucial policy window in Washington. Lawmakers have launched “Crypto Week,” a period focused on deliberating three key bills that could dramatically reshape the U.S. digital asset regulatory framework:
- The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act seeks to define the boundaries between securities and commodities, granting the CFTC oversight of crypto trading. This long-awaited clarity could break years of regulatory deadlock.
- The GENIUS Act offers a structured framework for stablecoins, including 1:1 reserve backing, monthly disclosures, and licensing. With bipartisan support and Senate approval already secured, President Trump’s endorsement may accelerate its passage.
- The Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act aims to prevent the Federal Reserve from issuing a central bank digital currency without Congressional approval, a move popular among crypto advocates.
These proposals could lay the legal groundwork for broader institutional crypto adoption. Even if not all bills pass immediately, their progress has already sparked significant market interest.
Caution Amid Optimism
Despite the bullish momentum, analysts urge caution. According to Citi, digital assets remain a considerable distance from being considered safe-haven alternatives like gold. While ETF-driven capital inflows have been substantial, they may also heighten the risk of short-term overbought conditions and profit-taking, especially among leveraged traders.
Nonetheless, Ethereum’s recent rally is built on more than just speculation. With institutional money flowing in and regulatory tides shifting, the recovery appears grounded, though volatility remains an ever-present risk.
Key Market Movements This Week
Forex Overview
US Dollar Index (USDX): Grinding upward toward a key resistance at 97.70. A breakout may lift expectations for further USD strength.
EURUSD: Drifting lower with possible support at 1.1660 and 1.1605. CPI results could guide direction.
GBPUSD: Consolidating. A bounce at 1.3415 is possible post-UK CPI, but the upside is likely capped under 1.3535.
USDJPY: Hovering near 147.75. Watch for a breakout toward 148.05 or reversal cues.
USDCHF: Approaching 0.8050 resistance. The direction will likely follow overall USD trends.
Commodity Currencies
AUDUSD: Holding near 0.6550. Australia’s jobs report on Thursday could trigger a move toward 0.6665.
NZDUSD: Approaching key support at 0.6000. Look for base formation before entering long positions.
USDCAD: Testing 1.3715. Breakout could retest 1.37587 if inflation data aligns.
Commodities
US Oil (WTI): Facing resistance at 71.80 and 73.40. If supply headlines remain muted, prices may fall back to 63.35 or 61.00.
Gold: Breakout confirmed. Eyes now on 3340, though a stronger dollar could cap gains.
Indices & Crypto
S&P 500: The trend remains bullish, but tariff-related volatility may test support at 6230 and 6170.
Bitcoin: Regaining momentum toward 124,720 resistance. ETF optimism and Ethereum spillover are key drivers.
Natural Gas: Hovering near 3.35. Watch 3.40 for a breakout or a fallback to 3.09.
Upcoming Economic Events
Tuesday, July 15 – US & Canada CPI Reports: Key inflation prints may redefine Fed and BoC rate path expectations.
Wednesday, July 16 – UK CPI Data: With markets on edge, surprises may spark significant GBP volatility.
Thursday, July 17 – Australia Employment Change: Positive data could lift AUDUSD toward 0.6665.
Thursday, July 17 – US Retail Sales: A rebound may reinforce consumer strength and delay rate cuts.
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