Insights 
VT 
Bitcoin ended August bruised but far from broken. On 12 August, the cryptocurrency set a fresh all-time high of 124,492 dollars, only to retreat to 107,340 dollars by the month’s close.
Such reversals are nothing unusual in Bitcoin’s story. The market has always shifted between euphoric climbs and sharp flush-outs, shaking off leveraged excess before testing how much conviction remains among buyers.
Liquidity Still Strong
The liquidity backdrop remains powerful. Between November 2024 and August 2025, more than 67 billion dollars in new stablecoins entered circulation across USDT, USDC, and EURC.
December 2024 alone saw over 10 billion dollars in issuance, followed by 9.5 billion in January. July and August together added another 18 billion.
By late August, the stablecoin market cap reached record levels, with USDT at 167.3 billion dollars, USDC at 70.6 billion, DAI at 5.4 billion, and FDUSD at 1.45 billion, for a combined total near 245 billion. Including smaller issuers, the figure climbs above 275 billion dollars.
That liquidity is still “dry powder” capital that could easily flow into Bitcoin once confidence strengthens.
Institutions remain the other critical driver. July was explosive, with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs pulling in roughly 6 billion dollars of inflows and total crypto ETFs recording a record 12.8 billion. This surge of demand helped propel Bitcoin beyond the 120,000-dollar mark.
August, however, delivered the opposite effect. Spot ETFs saw sharp outflows, including a single-day 2.6 billion-dollar redemption from BlackRock’s IBIT, dragging Bitcoin down by 16,000 dollars in tandem.
The lesson is one of pacing: daily ETF flows are volatile, monthly flows shape momentum, and cumulative flows define the long-term trend. Despite August’s pullback, net institutional buying in 2025 remains intact.
The outlook stays cautious; more outflows could occur if volatility persists. Yet the broader current still points toward accumulation rather than abandonment.
Seasonal Patterns Point to Q4
Seasonality continues to favor Bitcoin into year-end. Historically, August and September have been weak months, followed by strong performances in October and November.
On average, October has brought gains of more than 20 percent, while November has averaged gains of over 40 percent. This year’s negative August fits that pattern.
If Bitcoin can hold steady through September without slipping below support, the stage could be set for another Q4 rally. That said, history may rhyme but does not repeat with certainty, and broader macro conditions could still alter the seasonal script.
Technically, Bitcoin is wrestling with the 110,000-dollar threshold, which has flipped from support into resistance. Liquidity maps show heavy supply stacked between 109,000 and 110,000, where trapped longs are likely to exit on any rallies.
On the downside, liquidity builds at 108,000 and 107,000. A clear move above 110,000 would help steady the structure and tilt momentum higher. Failure, however, risks a slide toward 105,000 or lower levels that stand as critical lines in the sand.
Traders Brace for Impact
Market sentiment has cooled but not collapsed. The Fear and Greed Index sits at 40, showing nervousness without outright despair. Perpetual futures funding rates remain only slightly positive, suggesting modest long positioning without signs of overheating.
This is the anatomy of a reset: exuberance flushed out, leverage contained, but no capitulation. It gives Bitcoin room to stabilize, though traders remain cautious, waiting for a clearer direction.
August tested conviction, but the structural pillars of this cycle remain in place: strong liquidity, net-positive institutional flows, and favorable seasonality into Q4.
The near-term battle is clear: hold around 107,000 and reclaim 110,000, or risk another leg down toward 105,000. Success could reopen the path toward 124,000 before year-end.
Key Movements of the Week
The week begins with the US Dollar Index holding steady. Prices have lingered since Friday, showing little appetite for a decisive move. Traders are closely watching the 97.409 swing low, which, if broken, could drag the index lower toward 97.35. For now, the lack of momentum signals indecision, though fresh data or sentiment shifts may quickly break the stalemate.
In Europe, EURUSD mirrors the dollar’s pause, hovering near Friday’s levels. Charts suggest the next level to watch is 1.1755. Sterling also sits at a pivotal zone: GBPUSD dipped but held above 1.35435, leaving 1.3555 as the next marker for potential strength.
Across Asia, USDJPY is drifting lower, with traders watching whether 146.208 will hold. A break beneath could trigger a deeper downside. USDCHF also trends down, with 0.7960 as the key checkpoint.
The Australian dollar is testing nerves at 0.6550, with sellers holding ground. A push higher would shift focus to 0.6570. Meanwhile, the New Zealand dollar is gaining, with 0.5920 as its immediate target.
In North America, USDCAD trades near 1.3735, consolidating. Should it slip lower, 1.3700 may come into play.
Commodities show a clearer rhythm. Oil appears to be consolidating, with 66.45 as the level where bearish price action could reassert itself. Gold, however, has found traction, climbing past 3,420 dollars toward a 3,470-dollar test. Silver remains strong, with momentum favoring bulls and 38.75 as a likely staging ground. Natural gas has rebounded from 2.80 and is now leaning toward a test of 3.04.
In equities, the S&P 500 pulled back from the 6,500 mark before settling. If it rallies again, traders will eye 6,485 for signs of strength, with a close above 6,497 opening potential toward 6,630 or 6,730. The Nasdaq tells a similar story: slipping from 23,780, but with 23,600 as near-term support. A close above 23,700 could tilt momentum back upward.
Bitcoin remains the main spotlight. It found footing at 107,245 but remains fragile. A lower low could send prices toward 105,700 or even 101,400. Ethereum faces its own key test, with 4,585 as the pivot level for renewed bullish confirmation.
Among individual stocks, UnitedHealth shows signs of consolidation. If support holds, bulls may aim for 270 as a fresh entry, with intrinsic value estimates reaching 410 after recent earnings. Novo Nordisk, trading above 55.37, also signals the potential for another leg higher. Analysts now place its intrinsic value near 90, suggesting further upside potential.
The week overall opens against a backdrop of fragile confidence, with many assets sitting on key support or resistance levels, awaiting data or sentiment to tip the balance.
Key Events of the Week
Markets pick up on Tuesday, 2 September, with the release of the US ISM Manufacturing PMI, expected at 48.9 versus July’s 48.0.
Wednesday, 3 September, brings Australia’s GDP, forecast at 0.5 percent quarter-on-quarter versus 0.2 percent prior, alongside US JOLTS Job Openings, expected to fall to 7.24 million from 7.44 million. Labor market data remains a central focus.
Thursday, 4 September, highlights the US ISM Services PMI, forecast at 50.5 versus 50.1 previously. The figure sits just above the expansion line and may influence sentiment around the dollar and the broader economy.
Friday, 5 September, closes with the headline “US Jobs Report.” Non-farm payrolls are projected at 74,000 versus 73,000 prior, with unemployment expected to rise slightly to 4.3 percent from 4.2 percent. Together, these numbers underscore a gradual softening in the labor market.
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