Insights 
VT 
Everything That Glitters Isn’t Just Gold: Silver Is Stepping into the Spotlight, Gaining Renewed Attention in Financial Markets.
Once primarily regarded as a hedge during economic uncertainty, gold and silver have now evolved into core investment assets. Since 2023, gold has surged +103%, outpacing the S&P 500’s +72% rise. In 2025 alone, gold has climbed +40%, while silver advanced +44%.
Gold has breached $3,600 per ounce, marking record highs, while silver stands strong at $41, its highest level since 2011.
The narrative is clear: amid persistent deficits, rising inflation, and political uncertainty, traders are reassessing where true stability lies.
The Three Pillars Behind the Rally
This bullish momentum is driven by three key factors:
Rising Deficit Spending:
The U.S. fiscal gap now nears $2 trillion annually, flooding the market with Treasuries and pushing yields to 11-year highs. With real returns squeezed, investors are turning increasingly toward hard assets.
Changing Correlation with Equities:
In 2024, gold’s correlation with the S&P 500 surged to 0.91, showing that gold now acts not only as a safe haven but also as a parallel hedge against inflation and debt-fueled economic growth.
Renewed Safe-Haven Demand:
As bonds lose their portfolio anchor status, demand for gold and silver is gaining fresh momentum as crisis-resistant assets.
Central Banks Powering the Shift
Central banks are playing a crucial role in this transition. For the first time since 1996, gold holdings now exceed U.S. Treasuries in global reserves.
Gold now makes up roughly 20% of total foreign reserves, surpassing the euro at 16%.
The rationale is simple: Treasuries and SWIFT can be frozen, but gold stored in a local vault is untouchable.
Annual gold purchases have exceeded 1,000 tonnes for three consecutive years, doubling the pace of the prior decade.
China leads the charge with monthly additions, while Russia, Turkey, and India steadily build their reserves.
A World Gold Council survey reveals that 95% of central banks expect global gold holdings to grow further, with nearly half planning to increase their own reserves.
This steady official-sector demand reflects not just a cyclical surge but a structural reshaping of global reserves.
Silver’s Dual Investment & Industrial Strength
Silver continues to benefit from robust investment flows alongside growing industrial usage.
ETFs alone added close to 1,000 tonnes in June 2025, pushing total holdings to around 24,000 tonnes.
Retail demand for coins and bars remains strong, while lease rates spiked above 5% from near zero, signaling increasing scarcity. A $1.20 premium gap has emerged between COMEX futures and London spot prices.
Beyond investment appeal, silver plays a crucial role in the green economy—powering solar panels, EVs, and electronics providing a reliable industrial demand floor.
Price Outlook: What’s Next?
In the months ahead, the trajectory of gold and silver will largely hinge on inflation dynamics and central bank policy decisions.
🔸 If inflation remains high and the Fed eases, gold could approach $4,000 per ounce by year-end.
🔸 Conversely, if inflation cools and real rates climb, prices may consolidate.
Silver is likely to follow gold’s trend but with greater volatility. A firm break above $40 could open the path toward $50, levels last seen in 2011, though sluggish industrial demand might trigger sharper pullbacks.
For now, the outlook leans toward resilience. Gold remains firmly supported by deficits, inflation risks, and central bank purchases, while silver combines monetary and industrial demand, making it volatile yet full of upside potential.
Key Movements of the Week
With this backdrop in mind, markets are now moving in real time, establishing clear battlegrounds across currencies, commodities, and equities.
The U.S. Dollar Index retreated from 97.90, eyeing a slip below 96.834 if weakness continues.
EURUSD is gaining from 1.1675 toward 1.17795, while GBPUSD climbs from 1.3510, aiming for 1.35901.
USDJPY fell from 148.10, with a close below 147.058 possibly targeting 146.298.
USDCHF softened, threatening 0.79148 if it breaks 0.7957.
Commodity currencies are gaining traction:
AUDUSD targeting 0.6690, NZDUSD moving toward 0.6000, and USDCAD dipping below 1.38574, focusing now on 1.3820.
Oil remains volatile, bouncing from $62.70 and retracting near $64.35. A drop below $61.804 may open the door to $58.40.
Gold consolidates with support around $3,585 and $3,550, while a breakout could target $3,835.
Silver has held above $40.511, with bulls aiming for $42.55.
U.S. equities remain resilient:
S&P 500 tests 6,870, Nasdaq eyes 25,450.
Crypto stays firm, with:
Bitcoin is rebounding from 110,250 toward 116,200, and Ethereum is rising toward 4,585.
Natural gas remains under pressure near 2.97.
Key equities:
UnitedHealth stays above 326.22, with intrinsic value closer to 410.
Novo Nordisk rallies from 52.80 toward the fair value of 90, supported by strong earnings momentum.
Key Events This Week
The week ahead brings crucial data and central bank decisions likely to impact momentum across currencies and commodities.
Tuesday, Sep 16:
Canada’s median CPI y/y and U.S. retail sales m/m. Strong inflation data could reinforce the Bank of Canada’s caution, boosting CAD. U.S. retail sales will be a key gauge of consumer strength.
Wednesday, Sep 17: Bank of Canada’s rate decision. Markets are split between holding steady or signaling easing due to economic headwinds.
Thursday, Sep 18:
U.S. Federal Reserve rate decision—traders will focus on language around inflation and growth.
New Zealand GDP q/q data release, critical for NZD.
The Bank of England sets its rate, with a balance between inflation and growth weighing heavily.
Friday, Sep 19:
Bank of Japan’s policy rate decision. Even slight shifts in tone could impact JPY due to sensitivity to global yield differentials.
