Insights 
VT 
Markets are watching closely as key inflation prints from Switzerland and the Eurozone land today. Swiss CPI is forecast at -0.1% YoY, a slight dip from 0.0% previously. This would mark a return to negative territory, reinforcing bets on a potential 50bps cut at the upcoming SNB meeting—currently priced at a 32% chance. A downside surprise could push those odds even higher.
In the Eurozone, headline inflation is expected to soften to 2.0% from 2.2%, while core CPI is seen easing to 2.5% from 2.7%. Markets have nearly fully priced in a 25bps cut by the ECB this week, with a 95% probability. Policymakers have telegraphed a June move, but are likely to pause until September unless inflation or wage data shift meaningfully.
US Job Openings Preview
In the US, JOLTS data for April is forecast at 7.1 million, down from 7.192 million. Given the lag and the context of paused tariffs, the release is unlikely to meaningfully impact Fed expectations. The number will likely be seen as background noise unless it deviates sharply.
Today’s speaker lineup includes BoE’s Bailey (09:15 GMT), followed by Fed members Goolsbee (16:45 GMT), Cook (17:00 GMT), and Logan (19:30 GMT). With front-end futures pricing in rate cut expectations, any hawkish or dovish shift in tone from these speakers could prompt quick market repricing.
For Traders
Lower inflation figures from Switzerland and the Eurozone reinforce easing paths for their central banks. Traders should monitor short-end curves closely, particularly CHF and EUR rate differentials. Options flows may tilt toward steeper cuts. Bond desks holding neutral positions may need to reconsider their exposure if SNB opts for a deeper cut.
Meanwhile, JOLTS likely won’t drive much action, but commentary from central bankers could. Volatility in SOFR and swap spreads has risen, indicating sensitivity to any policy tone shifts. With Euro and CHF volatility priced modestly, downside surprises could shift vol strategies quickly.
Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.
