{"id":70024,"date":"2026-10-23T04:03:44","date_gmt":"2026-10-23T04:03:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr-latam\/uncategorized\/brent-oil-hits-114-as-us-iran-tensions-escalate\/"},"modified":"2026-10-23T04:03:44","modified_gmt":"2026-10-23T04:03:44","slug":"brent-oil-hits-114-as-us-iran-tensions-escalate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr-latam\/analysis\/brent-oil-hits-114-as-us-iran-tensions-escalate\/","title":{"rendered":"Le Brent atteint 114 dollars, sur fond d\u2019escalade des tensions entre les \u00c9tats-Unis et l\u2019Iran"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/img_6adac5f3d359f.webp\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Points cl\u00e9s<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Le Brent a grimp\u00e9 autour de <strong>114&nbsp;$<\/strong> le baril apr\u00e8s une mont\u00e9e des tensions entre les \u00c9tats-Unis et l\u2019Iran.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Le regain d\u2019incertitude g\u00e9opolitique au Moyen-Orient ravive les craintes d\u2019une perturbation de la production p\u00e9troli\u00e8re.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Le premier support se situe vers <strong>114,20\u2013114,30&nbsp;$<\/strong>, avec une r\u00e9sistance pr\u00e8s de <strong>114,833\u2013115,00&nbsp;$<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Le seuil psychologique des <strong>120&nbsp;$<\/strong> pourrait attirer l\u2019attention en cas de nouvelle escalade soutenant une hausse durable.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Les op\u00e9rateurs \u00e9valuent si la hausse r\u00e9cente vient de craintes g\u00e9opolitiques temporaires ou d\u2019un risque r\u00e9el et durable de baisse de l\u2019offre (moins de barils disponibles).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Mouvement de march\u00e9<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le Brent est mont\u00e9 au-dessus de <strong>114&nbsp;$<\/strong>, la derni\u00e8re s\u00e9ance montrant une progression rapide depuis <strong>113,60\u2013113,80&nbsp;$<\/strong>, avant une phase de stabilisation pr\u00e8s de <strong>114,50&nbsp;$<\/strong>. Les acheteurs ont ensuite repris la main apr\u00e8s un repli vers <strong>114,20\u2013114,30&nbsp;$<\/strong>, portant le dernier prix \u00e0 <strong>114,578&nbsp;$<\/strong>, l\u00e9g\u00e8rement au-dessus de la moyenne mobile \u00e0 neuf p\u00e9riodes (moyenne des prix des 9 derni\u00e8res unit\u00e9s de temps, souvent utilis\u00e9e pour rep\u00e9rer la tendance de court terme).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Cette hausse intervient sur fond de nouvelles inqui\u00e9tudes li\u00e9es aux tensions \u00c9tats-Unis\u2013Iran et \u00e0 la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 des exp\u00e9ditions d\u2019\u00e9nergie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<p><blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">\ud83d\udd0a Oil prices are climbing again after fresh attacks in Saudi Arabia and no diplomatic breakthrough in either the Middle East or Ukraine. Today&#39;s Reuters Morning Bid podcast looks at why energy markets remain under pressure <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/VltXj6XRvv\">https:\/\/t.co\/VltXj6XRvv<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/DmTV0z87Ca\">pic.twitter.com\/DmTV0z87Ca<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Reuters (@Reuters) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/Reuters\/status\/2113242742146916686?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 22, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Pour les op\u00e9rateurs sur le p\u00e9trole, la question est de savoir si la hausse du risque sur le transport maritime se traduira par une perte durable d\u2019offre (moins de p\u00e9trole livr\u00e9). L\u2019incertitude g\u00e9opolitique peut faire monter les prix vite, mais pour conserver ces gains, il faut souvent des signes concrets que moins de barils arrivent chez les acheteurs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pourquoi les op\u00e9rateurs surveillent la situation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le d\u00e9troit d\u2019Ormuz reste au c\u0153ur des perspectives, car il relie les grands producteurs du Golfe aux march\u00e9s mondiaux. Environ <strong>20&nbsp;millions de barils par jour<\/strong> y sont pass\u00e9s en <strong>2024<\/strong>, soit pr\u00e8s de <strong>20&nbsp;% de la consommation mondiale de liquides p\u00e9troliers<\/strong> (p\u00e9trole brut et produits proches). Ce point de d\u00e9part montre l\u2019ampleur potentielle d\u2019une perturbation de cette route.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Des prix du brut plus \u00e9lev\u00e9s alimentent aussi l\u2019inflation (hausse g\u00e9n\u00e9rale des prix). Un carburant plus cher augmente les co\u00fbts de transport et de production. Si la hausse dure, elle peut aussi influencer les anticipations d\u2019inflation (ce que m\u00e9nages et entreprises pensent de l\u2019inflation \u00e0 venir), ce qui p\u00e8se ensuite sur les d\u00e9cisions de politique mon\u00e9taire (actions des banques centrales sur les taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<p><blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Futures were under pressure as escalating concern about Mideast conflict pushed oil futures higher, spurring inflation fears with US midterm elections less than two weeks away <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/IZ5xCMoNWz\">https:\/\/t.co\/IZ5xCMoNWz<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/business\/status\/2113295576557121994?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 22, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Une hausse durable de l\u2019\u00e9nergie pourrait donc compliquer l\u2019argument en faveur d\u2019une baisse des taux am\u00e9ricains. En parall\u00e8le, une facture de carburant plus lourde peut freiner la consommation des m\u00e9nages et l\u2019activit\u00e9 des entreprises, obligeant les d\u00e9cideurs \u00e0 arbitrer entre pression inflationniste et risques pour la croissance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Niveaux techniques cl\u00e9s<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<!-- TradingView Widget BEGIN -->\n<div class=\"tradingview-widget-container\">\n  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-container__widget\"><\/div>\n  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-copyright\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/symbols\/UKOUSD\/?exchange=VANTAGE\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><span class=\"blue-text\">UKOUSD chart<\/span><\/a><span class=\"trademark\">&nbsp;by TradingView<\/span><\/div>\n  <script type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.tradingview.com\/external-embedding\/embed-widget-advanced-chart.js\" async>\n<p>  {<\/p>\n<p>  \"allow_symbol_change\": true,<\/p>\n<p>  \"calendar\": false,<\/p>\n<p>  \"details\": false,<\/p>\n<p>  \"hide_side_toolbar\": true,<\/p>\n<p>  \"hide_top_toolbar\": false,<\/p>\n<p>  \"hide_legend\": false,<\/p>\n<p>  \"hide_volume\": false,<\/p>\n<p>  \"hotlist\": false,<\/p>\n<p>  \"interval\": \"D\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"locale\": \"en\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"save_image\": true,<\/p>\n<p>  \"style\": \"1\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"symbol\": \"VANTAGE:UKOUSD\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"theme\": \"dark\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"timezone\": \"Etc\/UTC\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"backgroundColor\": \"#0F0F0F\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"gridColor\": \"rgba(242, 242, 242, 0.2)\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"watchlist\": [],<\/p>\n<p>  \"withdateranges\": false,<\/p>\n<p>  \"compareSymbols\": [],<\/p>\n<p>  \"support_host\": \"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"studies\": [],<\/p>\n<p>  \"width\": 900,<\/p>\n<p>  \"height\": 500<\/p>\n<p>}<\/p>\n  <\/script>\n<\/div>\n<!-- TradingView Widget END -->\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Niveau<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">R\u00f4le<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Importance<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>120,00&nbsp;$<\/td><td>Rep\u00e8re psychologique<\/td><td>Niveau de hausse plus large si la progression d\u00e9passe nettement 115&nbsp;$.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>114,833\u2013115,00&nbsp;$<\/td><td>R\u00e9sistance principale \u00e0 court terme<\/td><td>Combine le plus haut visible et le prochain seuil \u00ab&nbsp;chiffre rond&nbsp;\u00bb (niveau qui attire souvent l\u2019attention, comme 115).<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>114,60\u2013114,70&nbsp;$<\/td><td>R\u00e9sistance proche<\/td><td>Zone haute de stabilisation apr\u00e8s la pouss\u00e9e initiale.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>114,20\u2013114,30&nbsp;$<\/td><td>Premier support<\/td><td>Zone du repli r\u00e9cent o\u00f9 la demande est revenue.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>114,00&nbsp;$<\/td><td>Support interm\u00e9diaire<\/td><td>Rep\u00e8re \u00ab&nbsp;chiffre rond&nbsp;\u00bb au sein de la hausse pr\u00e9c\u00e9dente.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>113,54\u2013113,70&nbsp;$<\/td><td>Zone de support plus basse<\/td><td>Inclut le plus bas visible \u00e0 113,542&nbsp;$ et la base avant la hausse.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">UKOUSD se maintient pr\u00e8s de la partie haute de la zone visible, mais les acheteurs n\u2019ont pas encore valid\u00e9 une nouvelle cassure (franchissement net d\u2019un niveau). Un maintien au-dessus de <strong>114,60\u2013114,70&nbsp;$<\/strong> mettrait davantage en avant le plus haut affich\u00e9 \u00e0 <strong>114,833&nbsp;$<\/strong> et la barri\u00e8re des <strong>115,00&nbsp;$<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00c0 la baisse, <strong>114,20\u2013114,30&nbsp;$<\/strong> correspond \u00e0 la derni\u00e8re zone o\u00f9 la vente a suscit\u00e9 un retour d\u2019acheteurs. Une rupture de cette zone ouvrirait la voie \u00e0 un repli plus marqu\u00e9 vers <strong>114,00&nbsp;$<\/strong>, puis vers la base <strong>113,54\u2013113,70&nbsp;$<\/strong> si la pression vendeuse persiste.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Sc\u00e9narios haussier et baissier<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/img_6adac5f4e2863.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Sc\u00e9nario<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Confirmation \u00e0 surveiller<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Niveaux possibles<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Poursuite haussi\u00e8re<\/td><td>Franchissement durable au-dessus de 114,70&nbsp;$, puis test de 114,833\u2013115,00&nbsp;$<\/td><td>115&nbsp;$ d\u2019abord&nbsp;; 120&nbsp;$ devient pertinent si une hausse plus large se met en place<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Repli baissier<\/td><td>Passage sous 114,20&nbsp;$ et \u00e9chec \u00e0 repasser au-dessus de 114,20\u2013114,30&nbsp;$<\/td><td>114,00&nbsp;$, puis 113,70\u2013113,54&nbsp;$<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le <strong>sc\u00e9nario haussier<\/strong> repose sur un franchissement de <strong>114,70&nbsp;$<\/strong> suivi d\u2019un maintien au-dessus, ce qui indiquerait que les acheteurs reprennent le contr\u00f4le apr\u00e8s la phase de stabilisation. Un mouvement durable <strong>au-del\u00e0 de 115&nbsp;$<\/strong> pourrait alimenter une hausse plus large, avec <strong>120&nbsp;$<\/strong> comme rep\u00e8re \u00e0 plus long terme si les craintes sur l\u2019offre s\u2019aggravent. Une cassure rat\u00e9e suivie d\u2019un repli sous <strong>114,20&nbsp;$<\/strong> affaiblirait ce sc\u00e9nario.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le <strong>sc\u00e9nario baissier<\/strong> se renforcerait si UKOUSD passe sous <strong>114,20&nbsp;$<\/strong> et peine \u00e0 remonter au-dessus de <strong>114,20\u2013114,30&nbsp;$<\/strong>. Cela indiquerait que l\u2019ancien support devient une r\u00e9sistance (niveau qui bloque la hausse), ce qui pourrait exposer <strong>114,00&nbsp;$<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Avertissement<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Les niveaux de prix et sc\u00e9narios ci-dessus refl\u00e8tent l\u2019interpr\u00e9tation de l\u2019auteur \u00e0 partir du graphique 15 minutes fourni au moment de la r\u00e9daction. Ils ne constituent pas un conseil en investissement ni une recommandation officielle de VT Markets. Il est essentiel de faire sa propre analyse et de g\u00e9rer le risque avec prudence.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pr\u00e9vision UKOUSD&nbsp;: quelle suite&nbsp;?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">UKOUSD pourrait prolonger sa hausse si les tensions \u00c9tats-Unis\u2013Iran s\u2019aggravent, si les retards de transport maritime augmentent, ou si des d\u00e9g\u00e2ts confirm\u00e9s r\u00e9duisent la production et les exportations. Les prix pourraient reculer si les discussions diplomatiques progressent, si les conditions de transport se stabilisent, ou si l\u2019offre r\u00e9siste mieux que pr\u00e9vu. Une hausse inattendue des stocks de brut aux \u00c9tats-Unis pourrait aussi peser sur le sentiment, surtout si elle s\u2019accompagne de signes de demande de carburants plus faible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les prochains catalyseurs sont les \u00e9volutions li\u00e9es aux \u00c9tats-Unis et \u00e0 l\u2019Iran, les signes de changement dans les flux physiques de p\u00e9trole (livraisons r\u00e9elles), et les prochaines donn\u00e9es de stocks am\u00e9ricaines. L\u2019EIA (Energy Information Administration, agence statistique am\u00e9ricaine de l\u2019\u00e9nergie) publie en g\u00e9n\u00e9ral son Weekly Petroleum Status Report (rapport hebdomadaire sur l\u2019\u00e9tat du p\u00e9trole) le mercredi \u00e0 <strong>10h30<\/strong> (heure de la c\u00f4te Est des \u00c9tats-Unis). Les op\u00e9rateurs devraient aussi le suivre de pr\u00e8s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Trader UKOUSD avec VT Markets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les march\u00e9s p\u00e9troliers restent sensibles \u00e0 la g\u00e9opolitique, aux changements d\u2019offre d\u2019\u00e9nergie et aux donn\u00e9es \u00e9conomiques. Pour les op\u00e9rateurs qui suivent UKOUSD, croiser ces \u00e9l\u00e9ments avec les niveaux techniques peut aider \u00e0 lire un march\u00e9 qui change vite.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Avec VT Markets, les op\u00e9rateurs peuvent acc\u00e9der \u00e0 des CFD sur le p\u00e9trole (contrats sur diff\u00e9rence&nbsp;: produits d\u00e9riv\u00e9s qui permettent de sp\u00e9culer sur la variation d\u2019un prix sans d\u00e9tenir l\u2019actif), et r\u00e9agir aux mouvements de march\u00e9 via des positions acheteuses et vendeuses (parier sur la hausse ou sur la baisse), selon leur sc\u00e9nario.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">VT Markets donne acc\u00e8s \u00e0 des plateformes de trading dont MetaTrader 5 (MT5), Web Trading et l\u2019application VT Markets, ainsi qu\u2019\u00e0 des outils graphiques et des ressources d\u2019analyse de march\u00e9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<details class=\"wp-block-details is-layout-flow wp-block-details-is-layout-flow\"><summary>Questions fr\u00e9quentes<\/summary>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Qu\u2019est-ce que UKOUSD&nbsp;?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">UKOUSD est un CFD au comptant (prix au comptant&nbsp;: prix \u00ab&nbsp;imm\u00e9diat&nbsp;\u00bb du march\u00e9) sur le Brent, cot\u00e9 en dollars. Il permet de s\u2019exposer aux variations du Brent sans poss\u00e9der ni se faire livrer du p\u00e9trole physique.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pourquoi le Brent se traite-t-il au-dessus de 114&nbsp;$&nbsp;?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le dernier graphique situe UKOUSD \u00e0 <strong>114,578<\/strong>, dans un contexte de tensions accrues entre les \u00c9tats-Unis et l\u2019Iran, et de doutes sur la fiabilit\u00e9 des exp\u00e9ditions de p\u00e9trole depuis le Moyen-Orient.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">UKOUSD peut-il atteindre 120&nbsp;$&nbsp;?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Une nouvelle escalade ou des pertes d\u2019offre durables pourraient soutenir une hausse suppl\u00e9mentaire. Mais les acheteurs doivent d\u2019abord franchir <strong>114,833\u2013115,00&nbsp;$<\/strong>. Le niveau <strong>120&nbsp;$<\/strong> reste un rep\u00e8re psychologique conditionnel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Quels supports faut-il surveiller&nbsp;?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le premier support se situe vers <strong>114,20\u2013114,30&nbsp;$<\/strong>, puis <strong>114,00&nbsp;$<\/strong> et la zone basse <strong>113,54\u2013113,70&nbsp;$<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Qu\u2019est-ce qui pourrait faire baisser les prix du p\u00e9trole&nbsp;?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Des avanc\u00e9es diplomatiques, un transport maritime plus s\u00fbr, une offre plus forte ou une demande plus faible peuvent r\u00e9duire la pression haussi\u00e8re. Les donn\u00e9es de stocks peuvent aussi modifier les attentes sur la tension du march\u00e9 (\u00e9cart entre offre et demande).<\/p>\n<\/details>\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>Commencez \u00e0 trader d\u00e8s maintenant \u2014 cliquez <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr-latam\/trade-now\/\">ici<\/a> pour cr\u00e9er votre compte r\u00e9el VT Markets.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Le Brent repasse au-dessus de 114 $: la flamb\u00e9e des tensions Washington-T\u00e9h\u00e9ran ranime le risque Ormuz. March\u00e9 suspendu aux flux physiques, avec 115 $ en ligne de mire, puis 120 $ potentiel.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":70023,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-70024","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 5.0.1.1 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Le Brent repasse au-dessus de 114 $: la flamb\u00e9e des tensions Washington-T\u00e9h\u00e9ran ranime le risque Ormuz. 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