{"id":69907,"date":"2026-10-20T03:59:10","date_gmt":"2026-10-20T03:59:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr-latam\/uncategorized\/eurusd-holds-steady-amid-political-unrest-across-europe\/"},"modified":"2026-10-20T03:59:10","modified_gmt":"2026-10-20T03:59:10","slug":"eurusd-holds-steady-amid-political-unrest-across-europe","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr-latam\/analysis\/eurusd-holds-steady-amid-political-unrest-across-europe\/","title":{"rendered":"L\u2019EURUSD reste stable malgr\u00e9 les troubles politiques en Europe"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/img_6ad6d3bd722b1.webp\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Points cl\u00e9s<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>L\u2019EURUSD \u00e9volue pr\u00e8s de 1,12181, en hausse de 0,06%, alors que le dollar am\u00e9ricain peine \u00e0 trouver une direction claire durant la s\u00e9ance asiatique de mardi.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Les tensions politiques en France et en Italie ravivent les craintes sur la stabilit\u00e9 europ\u00e9enne, pesant sur les actions de la zone et sur les obligations d\u2019\u00c9tat.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>L\u2019\u00e9cart de rendement (spread), c\u2019est-\u00e0-dire la diff\u00e9rence de taux, entre les obligations d\u2019\u00c9tat fran\u00e7aises et allemandes \u00e0 10 ans s\u2019est creus\u00e9 de 9,9 points de base \u00e0 147,3 points de base lundi.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>L\u2019indice du dollar (US Dollar Index, une mesure de la force du billet vert face \u00e0 un panier de devises) a atteint 102 lundi, tandis que le rendement du Treasury am\u00e9ricain \u00e0 10 ans est rest\u00e9 \u00e0 5,131%.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Mouvement de march\u00e9<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">L\u2019EURUSD a \u00e9volu\u00e9 pr\u00e8s de <strong>1,12181<\/strong> durant la s\u00e9ance asiatique de mardi, affichant un gain limit\u00e9 de <strong>0,06%<\/strong>. L\u2019am\u00e9lioration progressive de la confiance des investisseurs a soutenu les devises sensibles au risque (celles qui montent quand l\u2019app\u00e9tit pour le risque augmente), mais l\u2019incertitude politique en Europe a frein\u00e9 la progression de l\u2019euro.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La paire a \u00e9volu\u00e9 dans une fourchette serr\u00e9e en intraday (au cours de la s\u00e9ance), avec un plus haut \u00e0 <strong>1,12203<\/strong> et un plus bas \u00e0 <strong>1,12089<\/strong>. Les cours sont rest\u00e9s concentr\u00e9s autour de <strong>1,12180<\/strong>, signe qu\u2019acheteurs et vendeurs n\u2019ont pas pris l\u2019avantage durablement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">L\u2019indice du dollar est mont\u00e9 jusqu\u2019\u00e0 <strong>102<\/strong> lundi, montrant une demande encore solide malgr\u00e9 un contexte mondial instable. Dans le m\u00eame temps, le rendement du Treasury am\u00e9ricain \u00e0 10 ans s\u2019est maintenu \u00e0 <strong>5,131%<\/strong>, ce qui laisse l\u2019EURUSD surtout d\u00e9pendant du climat politique europ\u00e9en plut\u00f4t que des taux am\u00e9ricains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pourquoi les traders surveillent<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les d\u00e9veloppements politiques en France sont devenus une source d\u2019incertitude pour l\u2019euro. Les autorit\u00e9s ont instaur\u00e9 lundi des couvre-feux dans plusieurs villes apr\u00e8s des manifestations anti-gouvernementales \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9chelle nationale, qui ont perturb\u00e9 l\u2019ordre public, accentuant la pression en fin de mandat du pr\u00e9sident Emmanuel Macron.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ces troubles alimentent les craintes sur la trajectoire des finances publiques fran\u00e7aises, alors que le Parlement se pr\u00e9pare \u00e0 son premier vote formel sur la partie recettes (imp\u00f4ts et autres revenus) du <strong>budget 2027<\/strong> propos\u00e9. De nouveaux d\u00e9saccords politiques pourraient compliquer les n\u00e9gociations budg\u00e9taires et fragiliser la dette de l\u2019\u00c9tat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les march\u00e9s obligataires ont d\u00e9j\u00e0 int\u00e9gr\u00e9 une partie de ces inqui\u00e9tudes. L\u2019\u00e9cart de rendement entre les obligations d\u2019\u00c9tat fran\u00e7aises et allemandes \u00e0 10 ans s\u2019est \u00e9largi \u00e0 <strong>142,3 points de base<\/strong> lundi. Un spread plus large signifie que les investisseurs exigent une r\u00e9mun\u00e9ration plus \u00e9lev\u00e9e (un rendement sup\u00e9rieur) pour d\u00e9tenir la dette fran\u00e7aise plut\u00f4t que la dette allemande, jug\u00e9e plus s\u00fbre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<p><blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Investors Abandoning French Government Bonds for German Bunds <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/5icGXC7osx\">https:\/\/t.co\/5icGXC7osx<\/a><\/p>&mdash; WSJ Markets (@WSJmarkets) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/WSJmarkets\/status\/2108361012051136600?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 9, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les tensions se sont aussi \u00e9tendues \u00e0 l\u2019Italie, o\u00f9 le gouvernement a annonc\u00e9 le d\u00e9ploiement de 500 militaires apr\u00e8s deux jours de troubles. M\u00eame si l\u2019euro reste relativement stable, l\u2019instabilit\u00e9 dans les grandes \u00e9conomies europ\u00e9ennes peut accentuer la pression sur la monnaie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<p><blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Violent protests spread from France to Italy and Belgium <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/evvm5uqg7i\">https:\/\/t.co\/evvm5uqg7i<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Financial Times (@FT) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/FT\/status\/2112184808025583737?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 19, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Niveaux de trading cl\u00e9s<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<!-- TradingView Widget BEGIN -->\n<div class=\"tradingview-widget-container\">\n  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-container__widget\"><\/div>\n  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-copyright\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/symbols\/EURUSD\/?exchange=OANDA\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><span class=\"blue-text\">Graphique EURUSD<\/span><\/a><span class=\"trademark\">&nbsp;par TradingView<\/span><\/div>\n  <script type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.tradingview.com\/external-embedding\/embed-widget-advanced-chart.js\" async>\n<p>  {<\/p>\n<p>  \"allow_symbol_change\": true,<\/p>\n<p>  \"calendar\": false,<\/p>\n<p>  \"details\": false,<\/p>\n<p>  \"hide_side_toolbar\": true,<\/p>\n<p>  \"hide_top_toolbar\": false,<\/p>\n<p>  \"hide_legend\": false,<\/p>\n<p>  \"hide_volume\": false,<\/p>\n<p>  \"hotlist\": false,<\/p>\n<p>  \"interval\": \"D\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"locale\": \"en\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"save_image\": true,<\/p>\n<p>  \"style\": \"1\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"symbol\": \"OANDA:EURUSD\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"theme\": \"dark\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"timezone\": \"Etc\/UTC\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"backgroundColor\": \"#0F0F0F\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"gridColor\": \"rgba(242, 242, 242, 0.2)\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"watchlist\": [],<\/p>\n<p>  \"withdateranges\": false,<\/p>\n<p>  \"compareSymbols\": [],<\/p>\n<p>  \"support_host\": \"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"studies\": [],<\/p>\n<p>  \"width\": 900,<\/p>\n<p>  \"height\": 500<\/p>\n<p>}<\/p>\n  <\/script>\n<\/div>\n<!-- TradingView Widget END -->\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Niveau<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Prix<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Signification technique<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>R\u00e9sistance 2<\/td><td>1.12203<\/td><td>Plus haut de s\u00e9ance et niveau de cassure (breakout, franchissement haussier)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>R\u00e9sistance 1<\/td><td>1.122<\/td><td>R\u00e9sistance psychologique imm\u00e9diate (niveau rond surveill\u00e9 par le march\u00e9)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Pivot<\/td><td>1.1218<\/td><td>Zone de prix actuelle<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Support 1<\/td><td>1.1216<\/td><td>Niveau de r\u00e9action \u00e0 court terme<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Support 2<\/td><td>1.1214<\/td><td>Support intraday r\u00e9cent<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Support 3<\/td><td>1.12089<\/td><td>Plus bas de s\u00e9ance et rep\u00e8re baissier<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">L\u2019EURUSD montre un rebond de court terme puis une phase de stabilisation sous <strong>1,12200<\/strong>. La moyenne mobile \u00e0 9 p\u00e9riodes (MA9, un indicateur qui lisse les prix sur 9 bougies pour visualiser la tendance) s\u2019est orient\u00e9e \u00e0 la hausse apr\u00e8s le rebond depuis 1,12140, mais les derniers mouvements sugg\u00e8rent un essoufflement pr\u00e8s de la r\u00e9sistance. La paire n\u2019a pas r\u00e9ussi \u00e0 conserver des gains au-dessus de <strong>1,12200<\/strong>, ce qui en fait la r\u00e9sistance imm\u00e9diate \u00e0 surveiller.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00c0 la baisse, <strong>1,12160<\/strong> constitue le premier support. Un passage sous ce niveau pourrait ouvrir la voie \u00e0 <strong>1,12140<\/strong>, o\u00f9 des acheteurs s\u2019\u00e9taient manifest\u00e9s. Un repli plus marqu\u00e9 vers <strong>1,12089<\/strong> indiquerait que le rebond perd de sa force.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Sc\u00e9narios haussiers et baissiers<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/img_6ad6d3bec05d8.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Sc\u00e9nario<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">D\u00e9clencheur<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Objectif potentiel<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Cassure haussi\u00e8re<\/td><td>Mouvement durable au-dessus de 1.12203<\/td><td>1.12220\u20131.12240<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Rebond haussier<\/td><td>Maintien au-dessus de 1.12160<\/td><td>1.12180\u20131.12200<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Rejet baissier<\/td><td>\u00c9chec sous 1.12200<\/td><td>1.1216<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Rupture baissi\u00e8re<\/td><td>Cassure sous 1.12140<\/td><td>1.12089<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Un sc\u00e9nario haussier supposerait que l\u2019EURUSD installe un support <strong>au-dessus de 1,12160<\/strong> avant de tester la zone de r\u00e9sistance 1,12200\u20131,12203. Un climat de march\u00e9 plus favorable au risque et un apaisement des inqui\u00e9tudes politiques en Europe pourraient soutenir ce mouvement. Une cassure confirm\u00e9e pourrait permettre une extension vers 1,12220\u20131,12240.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00c0 l\u2019inverse, un sc\u00e9nario baissier pourrait se mettre en place si l\u2019EURUSD continue de subir des ventes <strong>pr\u00e8s de 1,12200<\/strong>. Une cassure sous 1,12160 affaiblirait le rebond, tandis qu\u2019un passage sous 1,12140 pourrait ramener la paire vers le plus bas de s\u00e9ance \u00e0 1,12089. Un nouvel \u00e9largissement des spreads entre la France et l\u2019Allemagne renforcerait cette pression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Avertissement<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pr\u00e9vision EURUSD : quelle suite ?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">L\u2019EURUSD pourrait rester dans un range (une fourchette) \u00e0 court terme, les traders arbitrant entre un app\u00e9tit pour le risque en am\u00e9lioration et une incertitude politique croissante en Europe. La stabilit\u00e9 de la paire sugg\u00e8re que les investisseurs ne consid\u00e8rent pas encore les tensions en France comme une crise financi\u00e8re plus large pour la zone euro. En revanche, une pression accrue sur les obligations d\u2019\u00c9tat fran\u00e7aises pourrait peser sur la confiance envers la monnaie unique.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le prochain catalyseur majeur viendra des d\u00e9veloppements autour du budget 2027 et de la r\u00e9action des march\u00e9s obligataires europ\u00e9ens. Des progr\u00e8s vers un accord budg\u00e9taire cr\u00e9dible pourraient r\u00e9duire le risque souverain (le risque li\u00e9 \u00e0 la capacit\u00e9 d\u2019un \u00c9tat \u00e0 se financer) et soutenir l\u2019EURUSD. \u00c0 l\u2019inverse, une crise politique durable ou des spreads en hausse pourraient faire reculer la paire.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Trader l\u2019EURUSD avec VT Markets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">L\u2019EURUSD est l\u2019une des paires de change (forex, march\u00e9 des devises) les plus \u00e9chang\u00e9es au monde. Elle refl\u00e8te notamment les attentes sur la Banque centrale europ\u00e9enne, la R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale am\u00e9ricaine, l\u2019inflation, la croissance et l\u2019app\u00e9tit pour le risque.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Avec <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">VT Markets<\/a>, les traders peuvent suivre l\u2019\u00e9volution de l\u2019EURUSD, analyser les tendances avec des outils d\u2019analyse graphique et g\u00e9rer leurs positions via MetaTrader 4, MetaTrader 5 et l\u2019application VT Markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<details class=\"wp-block-details is-layout-flow wp-block-details-is-layout-flow\"><summary>Foire aux questions<\/summary>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pourquoi l\u2019EURUSD se traite-t-il pr\u00e8s de 1,12181 ?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">L\u2019EURUSD \u00e9volue pr\u00e8s de 1,12181 car un l\u00e9ger retour de l\u2019app\u00e9tit pour le risque soutient l\u2019euro, tandis que les tensions politiques en France et en Italie limitent la hausse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Comment les tensions politiques en France peuvent-elles affecter l\u2019EURUSD ?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">L\u2019instabilit\u00e9 politique peut r\u00e9duire la confiance dans les actifs europ\u00e9ens et accro\u00eetre la demande pour des placements jug\u00e9s plus s\u00fbrs. Si les rendements des obligations d\u2019\u00c9tat fran\u00e7aises continuent de monter plus vite que ceux de l\u2019Allemagne (donc si le spread s\u2019\u00e9largit), l\u2019euro pourrait subir des ventes suppl\u00e9mentaires.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Quels sont les niveaux de r\u00e9sistance cl\u00e9s pour l\u2019EURUSD ?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La premi\u00e8re r\u00e9sistance se situe \u00e0 1,12200, puis au plus haut de s\u00e9ance \u00e0 1,12203. Une cassure durable au-dessus de ces niveaux pourrait favoriser un rebond vers 1,12220\u20131,12240.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Quels sont les principaux niveaux de support pour l\u2019EURUSD ?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le support imm\u00e9diat se situe \u00e0 1,12160, suivi de 1,12140. Si la pression vendeuse s\u2019intensifie, l\u2019EURUSD pourrait retester le plus bas de s\u00e9ance \u00e0 1,12089.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">L\u2019EURUSD peut-il monter malgr\u00e9 l\u2019incertitude politique en Europe ?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Oui. L\u2019EURUSD peut se renforcer si les rendements des Treasuries baissent, si le dollar se replie ou si la situation politique en Europe se stabilise. Pour une hausse durable, il faudrait toutefois un regain de demande et une cassure confirm\u00e9e au-dessus des r\u00e9sistances de court terme.<\/p>\n<\/details>\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>Commencez \u00e0 trader d\u00e8s maintenant \u2014 cliquez <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr-latam\/trade-now\/\">ici<\/a> pour cr\u00e9er votre compte r\u00e9el VT Markets.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>L\u2019euro r\u00e9siste, mais jusqu\u2019\u00e0 quand ? L\u2019EURUSD oscille vers 1,1218, dop\u00e9 par l\u2019app\u00e9tit pour le risque, frein\u00e9 par les tensions France-Italie et l\u2019\u00e9largissement du spread OAT-Bund.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69906,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69907","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 5.0.1.1 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"L\u2019euro r\u00e9siste, mais jusqu\u2019\u00e0 quand ? 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