{"id":69894,"date":"2026-10-19T08:02:32","date_gmt":"2026-10-19T08:02:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr-latam\/uncategorized\/crude-oil-falls-as-russian-supply-weighs-on-prices\/"},"modified":"2026-10-19T08:02:32","modified_gmt":"2026-10-19T08:02:32","slug":"crude-oil-falls-as-russian-supply-weighs-on-prices","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr-latam\/analysis\/crude-oil-falls-as-russian-supply-weighs-on-prices\/","title":{"rendered":"Le p\u00e9trole brut recule, l\u2019offre russe pesant sur les prix"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/img_6ad5be2ebfef4.webp\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Points cl\u00e9s<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Le USOUSD met fin \u00e0 une s\u00e9rie de sept s\u00e9ances de hausse, les op\u00e9rateurs r\u00e9\u00e9valuant la possibilit\u00e9 d\u2019un retour de volumes suppl\u00e9mentaires de carburants russes.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>La d\u00e9cision du pr\u00e9sident Donald Trump de suspendre certaines sanctions et droits de douane visant la Russie a renforc\u00e9 les anticipations d\u2019une offre mondiale de p\u00e9trole plus abondante.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Les attaques contre des p\u00e9troliers pr\u00e8s du d\u00e9troit d\u2019Ormuz et les frappes ukrainiennes sur des infrastructures p\u00e9troli\u00e8res russes continuent de menacer l\u2019offre.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>La hausse des prix \u00e0 l\u2019importation aux \u00c9tats-Unis a raviv\u00e9 les craintes d\u2019inflation avant la d\u00e9cision de la R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale (Fed) sur les taux.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>La r\u00e9sistance se situe vers 98,500\u201398,550, tandis que les supports autour de 98,400 et 98,350 pourraient guider le prochain mouvement \u00e0 court terme.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Mouvement de march\u00e9<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les prix du p\u00e9trole brut am\u00e9ricain ont recul\u00e9 lundi <strong>19 octobre<\/strong>, mettant fin \u00e0 sept s\u00e9ances cons\u00e9cutives de hausse, alors que les op\u00e9rateurs ont revu leur lecture des conditions d\u2019offre mondiale apr\u00e8s la d\u00e9cision de Washington d\u2019assouplir les restrictions sur les exportations d\u2019\u00e9nergie russes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<p><blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Oil falls from five-month high as supply intact despite fighting<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/tzZ3wSPxU1\">https:\/\/t.co\/tzZ3wSPxU1<\/a><\/p>&mdash; The Business Times (@BusinessTimes) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/BusinessTimes\/status\/2112064964999479304?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 19, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le <strong>West Texas Intermediate (WTI)<\/strong>, le p\u00e9trole brut de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence aux \u00c9tats-Unis, s\u2019\u00e9changeait autour de <strong>98,498<\/strong> lors de la derni\u00e8re s\u00e9ance. Les cours ont connu de forts \u00e0-coups en s\u00e9ance, avec une br\u00e8ve progression vers <strong>98,550<\/strong> suivie d\u2019un repli rapide vers <strong>98,370<\/strong>. Les prix se sont ensuite redress\u00e9s vers <strong>98,500<\/strong>, signe d\u2019un retour des acheteurs sur les niveaux bas malgr\u00e9 le repli global de la s\u00e9ance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Ce que les op\u00e9rateurs surveillent<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La baisse fait suite \u00e0 la d\u00e9cision du pr\u00e9sident Donald Trump de suspendre temporairement des sanctions et des droits de douane visant la Russie, ce qui pourrait permettre \u00e0 davantage de carburants russes d\u2019arriver sur les march\u00e9s internationaux. Ce changement de politique a r\u00e9duit, \u00e0 court terme, les craintes de p\u00e9nurie, notamment alors que la Turquie se pr\u00e9pare \u00e0 absorber des exportations suppl\u00e9mentaires de diesel russe. En parall\u00e8le, les attaques contre des p\u00e9troliers pr\u00e8s du d\u00e9troit d\u2019Ormuz et les frappes de drones ukrainiens visant des infrastructures p\u00e9troli\u00e8res russes maintiennent un risque \u00e9lev\u00e9 sur l\u2019offre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<p><blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Ukraine launched a massive overnight aerial attack, sending hundreds of drones toward targets in Moscow and St. Petersburg, striking a major oil terminal again despite pressure from President Trump to end such attacks. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/tvt1mylRon\">https:\/\/t.co\/tvt1mylRon<\/a><\/p>&mdash; ABC News (@ABC) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/ABC\/status\/2111800494121247112?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 18, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La politique mon\u00e9taire am\u00e9ricaine est un autre \u00e9l\u00e9ment du dossier. En septembre, les prix \u00e0 l\u2019importation ont augment\u00e9 plus que pr\u00e9vu, en partie \u00e0 cause de l\u2019\u00e9nergie, ce qui renforce les inqui\u00e9tudes autour d\u2019une inflation persistante. Si la Fed d\u00e9cidait d\u2019une nouvelle hausse de taux (c\u2019est-\u00e0-dire relever son taux directeur), cela p\u00e8serait davantage sur les prix du p\u00e9trole.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les op\u00e9rateurs suivent la prochaine r\u00e9union du <strong>Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)<\/strong>, le comit\u00e9 de la Fed qui d\u00e9cide des taux, les chiffres d\u2019inflation <strong>PCE<\/strong> (indice des d\u00e9penses de consommation, l\u2019indicateur d\u2019inflation privil\u00e9gi\u00e9 par la Fed) ainsi que les \u00e9volutions touchant l\u2019offre d\u2019\u00e9nergie russe et moyen-orientale, afin d\u2019anticiper l\u2019orientation des prix.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Niveaux techniques cl\u00e9s<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<!-- TradingView Widget BEGIN -->\n<div class=\"tradingview-widget-container\">\n  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-container__widget\"><\/div>\n  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-copyright\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/symbols\/USOIL\/?exchange=TVC\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><span class=\"blue-text\">USOIL chart<\/span><\/a><span class=\"trademark\">&nbsp;by TradingView<\/span><\/div>\n  <script type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.tradingview.com\/external-embedding\/embed-widget-advanced-chart.js\" async>\n<p>  {<\/p>\n<p>  \"allow_symbol_change\": true,<\/p>\n<p>  \"calendar\": false,<\/p>\n<p>  \"details\": false,<\/p>\n<p>  \"hide_side_toolbar\": true,<\/p>\n<p>  \"hide_top_toolbar\": false,<\/p>\n<p>  \"hide_legend\": false,<\/p>\n<p>  \"hide_volume\": false,<\/p>\n<p>  \"hotlist\": false,<\/p>\n<p>  \"interval\": \"D\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"locale\": \"en\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"save_image\": true,<\/p>\n<p>  \"style\": \"1\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"symbol\": \"TVC:USOIL\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"theme\": \"dark\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"timezone\": \"Etc\/UTC\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"backgroundColor\": \"#0F0F0F\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"gridColor\": \"rgba(242, 242, 242, 0.2)\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"watchlist\": [],<\/p>\n<p>  \"withdateranges\": false,<\/p>\n<p>  \"compareSymbols\": [],<\/p>\n<p>  \"support_host\": \"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"studies\": [],<\/p>\n<p>  \"width\": 900,<\/p>\n<p>  \"height\": 500<\/p>\n<p>}<\/p>\n  <\/script>\n<\/div>\n<!-- TradingView Widget END -->\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Niveau<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Prix (USD)<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Signification technique<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>R\u00e9sistance 2<\/td><td>98,55<\/td><td>Pic r\u00e9cent en s\u00e9ance et r\u00e9sistance sup\u00e9rieure<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>R\u00e9sistance 1<\/td><td>98,5<\/td><td>R\u00e9sistance imm\u00e9diate et zone de rejet r\u00e9p\u00e9t\u00e9e<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Prix actuel<\/td><td>98,498<\/td><td>Dernier prix cot\u00e9<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Support 1<\/td><td>98,45<\/td><td>Support de court terme et zone de stabilisation<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Support 2<\/td><td>98,4<\/td><td>Plus bas de r\u00e9action pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent et support psychologique (niveau rond surveill\u00e9)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Support 3<\/td><td>98,370\u201398,350<\/td><td>Zone de reprise en s\u00e9ance et support inf\u00e9rieur<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le USOUSD fait face \u00e0 une r\u00e9sistance imm\u00e9diate \u00e0 <strong>98,500<\/strong>, o\u00f9 les tentatives r\u00e9centes de prolonger le rebond ont pein\u00e9 \u00e0 s\u2019imposer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00c0 la baisse, <strong>98,450<\/strong> constitue le premier support. Un passage sous ce niveau pourrait ouvrir la voie vers <strong>98,400<\/strong>, puis vers la <strong>zone 98,370\u201398,350<\/strong>, o\u00f9 les acheteurs \u00e9taient d\u00e9j\u00e0 revenus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La <strong>moyenne mobile \u00e0 9 p\u00e9riodes<\/strong>, un indicateur qui lisse les prix r\u00e9cents pour rep\u00e9rer une tendance, reste proche du niveau actuel, ce qui sugg\u00e8re un manque de direction claire. Tant que les cours oscillent autour de <strong>98,500<\/strong>, les op\u00e9rateurs peuvent attendre une sortie franche par le haut ou par le bas avant de trancher sur la direction \u00e0 court terme.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Sc\u00e9narios haussier et baissier<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/img_6ad5be3019fb6.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Sc\u00e9nario<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">D\u00e9clencheur<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Objectif potentiel<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Implication pour le march\u00e9<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Rebond haussier<\/td><td>Le prix se maintient au-dessus de 98,500<\/td><td>98,55<\/td><td>Les acheteurs reprennent la main \u00e0 court terme<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Cassure haussi\u00e8re<\/td><td>Mouvement durable au-dessus de 98,550<\/td><td>Nouveau potentiel de hausse, non confirm\u00e9<\/td><td>Rebond plus solide<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Rejet baissier<\/td><td>Le prix n\u2019arrive pas \u00e0 tenir 98,500<\/td><td>98,45<\/td><td>Retour de la pression vendeuse<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Cassure baissi\u00e8re<\/td><td>Le prix passe sous 98,400<\/td><td>98,370\u201398,350<\/td><td>Renforcement du mouvement baissier<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Un sc\u00e9nario haussier pourrait se mettre en place si le USOUSD construit un support <strong>au-dessus de 98,500<\/strong>. Cela indiquerait que les acheteurs absorbent la pression vendeuse, ce qui pourrait permettre un nouveau test de <strong>98,550<\/strong>. Un franchissement durable de cette r\u00e9sistance pourrait ouvrir la voie \u00e0 d\u2019autres gains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00c0 l\u2019inverse, un sc\u00e9nario baissier pourrait appara\u00eetre si les prix ne parviennent pas \u00e0 conserver le rebond pr\u00e8s de <strong>98,500<\/strong>. Un repli sous <strong>98,450<\/strong> mettrait ensuite <strong>98,400<\/strong> au centre de l\u2019attention.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Avertissement<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Les niveaux de prix et sc\u00e9narios de march\u00e9 ci-dessus refl\u00e8tent l\u2019analyse de l\u2019auteur au moment de la r\u00e9daction. Ils ne constituent pas un conseil financier ni une recommandation officielle de VT Markets. Les op\u00e9rateurs doivent r\u00e9aliser leur propre analyse et g\u00e9rer le risque avec prudence.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pr\u00e9vision USOUSD : quelle suite ?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">M\u00eame si la suspension des sanctions am\u00e9ricaines cr\u00e9e une source potentielle d\u2019offre suppl\u00e9mentaire, le march\u00e9 reste incertain sur sa mise en \u0153uvre et sa stabilit\u00e9. Les attaques li\u00e9es au d\u00e9troit d\u2019Ormuz et aux infrastructures \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques russes limitent aussi le potentiel de baisse : toute perturbation du transport maritime ou des installations d\u2019exportation peut relancer l\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat acheteur sur le brut.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les perspectives d\u2019inflation et de taux aux \u00c9tats-Unis p\u00e8seront aussi sur la trajectoire. Si la Fed maintient une orientation restrictive (des taux \u00e9lev\u00e9s plus longtemps), un dollar plus ferme et des anticipations de demande plus faibles pourraient peser sur les prix du brut. \u00c0 l\u2019inverse, un apaisement des craintes d\u2019inflation pourrait soutenir le sentiment de march\u00e9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Trader le USOUSD avec VT Markets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les traders peuvent acc\u00e9der au USOUSD via VT Markets et suivre les variations du p\u00e9trole avec l\u2019application VT Markets, MetaTrader 4 et MetaTrader 5.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les prix du p\u00e9trole peuvent r\u00e9agir vite aux changements d\u2019anticipations sur l\u2019offre mondiale, aux \u00e9v\u00e9nements g\u00e9opolitiques, aux donn\u00e9es de stocks et aux perturbations du transport maritime. Ces facteurs peuvent acc\u00e9l\u00e9rer les mouvements et entra\u00eener des p\u00e9riodes de forte volatilit\u00e9 (variations rapides et amples des prix).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Avec les outils de graphiques et d\u2019analyse de march\u00e9 de VT Markets, les traders peuvent suivre la dynamique des prix, rep\u00e9rer les niveaux cl\u00e9s de support et de r\u00e9sistance, et \u00e9valuer des configurations possibles sur le USOUSD.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<details class=\"wp-block-details is-layout-flow wp-block-details-is-layout-flow\"><summary>Foire aux questions<\/summary>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pourquoi le USOUSD baisse-t-il aujourd\u2019hui ?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le USOUSD a recul\u00e9 apr\u00e8s la suspension temporaire, par les \u00c9tats-Unis, de sanctions et de droits de douane visant la Russie, ce qui a accru les anticipations d\u2019exportations russes de carburants. Cette perspective d\u2019offre suppl\u00e9mentaire a pes\u00e9 sur le brut malgr\u00e9 les tensions g\u00e9opolitiques toujours pr\u00e9sentes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Quels sont les niveaux cl\u00e9s de support et de r\u00e9sistance du USOUSD ?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La r\u00e9sistance imm\u00e9diate se situe pr\u00e8s de 98,500 et 98,550. Les supports se trouvent autour de 98,450 et 98,400, puis sur la zone basse 98,370\u201398,350.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Les prix du p\u00e9trole peuvent-ils monter malgr\u00e9 une hausse des exportations russes ?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Oui. De nouvelles attaques contre des infrastructures \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques, des restrictions touchant le d\u00e9troit d\u2019Ormuz ou des perturbations des routes maritimes pourraient r\u00e9duire l\u2019offre disponible et soutenir les prix.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Comment la R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale peut-elle influencer les prix du USOUSD ?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Des taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat plus \u00e9lev\u00e9s peuvent renforcer le dollar et peser sur les anticipations d\u2019activit\u00e9 et de demande de p\u00e9trole. Une perspective de politique mon\u00e9taire moins restrictive pourrait apporter un soutien, m\u00eame si les conditions d\u2019offre physique (production, exportations, transport) restent d\u00e9terminantes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Que doivent surveiller les traders ensuite pour le USOUSD ?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les traders peuvent suivre l\u2019\u00e9volution des exportations de carburants russes, les perturbations du transport maritime au Moyen-Orient, les donn\u00e9es d\u2019inflation am\u00e9ricaines et la prochaine r\u00e9union de la Fed.<\/p>\n<\/details>\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>Commencez \u00e0 trader d\u00e8s maintenant \u2014 cliquez <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr-latam\/trade-now\/\">ici<\/a> pour cr\u00e9er votre compte r\u00e9el VT Markets.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Coup d\u2019arr\u00eat sur le WTI : apr\u00e8s sept s\u00e9ances de hausse, le brut reflue vers 98,50 $ sur espoirs d\u2019offre russe accrue. Ormuz, drones et Fed entretiennent une volatilit\u00e9 persistante.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69893,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69894","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 5.0.1.1 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Coup d\u2019arr\u00eat sur le WTI : apr\u00e8s sept s\u00e9ances de hausse, le brut reflue vers 98,50 $ sur espoirs d\u2019offre russe accrue. 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