{"id":69852,"date":"2026-10-16T04:03:18","date_gmt":"2026-10-16T04:03:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr-latam\/uncategorized\/new-zealand-dollar-recovers-from-18-month-low\/"},"modified":"2026-10-16T04:03:18","modified_gmt":"2026-10-16T04:03:18","slug":"new-zealand-dollar-recovers-from-18-month-low","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr-latam\/analysis\/new-zealand-dollar-recovers-from-18-month-low\/","title":{"rendered":"Le dollar n\u00e9o-z\u00e9landais se redresse apr\u00e8s un plus bas de 18 mois"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/img_6ad198d674702.webp\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Points cl\u00e9s<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Le NZD\/USD rebondit vers 0,5640, apr\u00e8s un plus bas de 18 mois, alors que la baisse des rendements des bons du Tr\u00e9sor am\u00e9ricain (taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat des titres d\u2019\u00c9tat des \u00c9tats-Unis) p\u00e8se sur le dollar am\u00e9ricain.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Les anticipations de hausse de taux de la RBNZ (banque centrale de Nouvelle-Z\u00e9lande) soutiennent le kiwi (dollar n\u00e9o-z\u00e9landais), apr\u00e8s que l\u2019\u00e9conomiste en chef Paul Conway a indiqu\u00e9 qu\u2019une hausse de l\u2019Official Cash Rate (OCR, le taux directeur de la banque centrale) reste le sc\u00e9nario le plus probable.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Les donn\u00e9es am\u00e9ricaines d\u2019inflation et de d\u00e9penses restent solides, maintenant au centre de l\u2019attention l\u2019hypoth\u00e8se de nouvelles hausses de taux de la R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale (Fed, banque centrale am\u00e9ricaine), malgr\u00e9 la r\u00e9cente faiblesse du dollar.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Le rapport d\u2019inflation du troisi\u00e8me trimestre en Nouvelle-Z\u00e9lande sera le prochain grand catalyseur, sa publication devant influencer les march\u00e9s avant la r\u00e9union de la RBNZ du 28 octobre.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>La r\u00e9sistance technique se situe \u00e0 0,5640, tandis que des supports autour de 0,5635 et 0,5630 pourraient d\u00e9cider si le rebond \u00e0 court terme se poursuit.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Mouvement de march\u00e9<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le dollar n\u00e9o-z\u00e9landais s\u2019est renforc\u00e9 vendredi, prolongeant son rebond depuis un <strong>plus bas de 18 mois<\/strong>, la baisse des rendements des bons du Tr\u00e9sor am\u00e9ricain affaiblissant le billet vert (dollar am\u00e9ricain).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le NZD\/USD est mont\u00e9 vers <strong>0,5620 $<\/strong> dans le cadre du rebond g\u00e9n\u00e9ral, tandis que la derni\u00e8re s\u00e9ance montre la paire \u00e0 <strong>0,56398<\/strong>, en hausse de <strong>0,35 %<\/strong>. Le mouvement en s\u00e9ance traduit un regain d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat pour le kiwi apr\u00e8s plusieurs semaines de ventes soutenues.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le kiwi gagne environ <strong>0,3 %<\/strong> cette semaine, et se dirige vers une fin de s\u00e9rie de sept semaines de baisse. M\u00eame si ce rebond sugg\u00e8re un essoufflement de la pression vendeuse, la tendance d\u2019ensemble reste tr\u00e8s sensible aux anticipations de taux en Nouvelle-Z\u00e9lande et aux \u00c9tats-Unis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pourquoi les traders surveillent le dossier<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le rebond du NZD\/USD retient l\u2019attention alors que les investisseurs r\u00e9\u00e9valuent les perspectives de politique mon\u00e9taire de la Reserve <strong>Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ)<\/strong> et de la R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Jeudi, l\u2019\u00e9conomiste en chef de la RBNZ, Paul Conway, a indiqu\u00e9 que la d\u00e9cision de taux de fin octobre reste ouverte. Les d\u00e9cideurs continuent toutefois de consid\u00e9rer une hausse de l\u2019OCR (le taux directeur) comme l\u2019issue la plus probable, m\u00eame si le calendrier reste incertain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ces propos soutiennent le dollar n\u00e9o-z\u00e9landais en confortant l\u2019id\u00e9e que le co\u00fbt du cr\u00e9dit (les taux d\u2019emprunt) pourrait augmenter. Des taux plus \u00e9lev\u00e9s peuvent rendre une devise plus attractive, surtout si les investisseurs anticipent un \u00e9cart de taux (diff\u00e9rence de niveaux de taux entre pays) moins d\u00e9favorable face \u00e0 d\u2019autres \u00e9conomies. Dans le m\u00eame temps, la baisse des rendements am\u00e9ricains affaiblit le dollar, ce qui am\u00e9liore l\u2019environnement pour le NZD\/USD.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<p><blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The dollar just had its worst day in over a month, despite ongoing inflation pressures.<br><br>The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.3% Thursday as worries about AI pushed investors into Treasuries, sending yields lower.<br><br>Read more: <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/8fRrZnimK4\">https:\/\/t.co\/8fRrZnimK4<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/SMu0yejZEh\">pic.twitter.com\/SMu0yejZEh<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Yahoo Finance (@YahooFinance) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/YahooFinance\/status\/2110864560487804938?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 15, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Niveaux techniques cl\u00e9s<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<!-- TradingView Widget BEGIN -->\n<div class=\"tradingview-widget-container\">\n  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-container__widget\"><\/div>\n  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-copyright\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/symbols\/NZDUSD\/?exchange=OANDA\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><span class=\"blue-text\">Graphique NZDUSD<\/span><\/a><span class=\"trademark\">&nbsp;par TradingView<\/span><\/div>\n  <script type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.tradingview.com\/external-embedding\/embed-widget-advanced-chart.js\" async>\n<p>  {<\/p>\n<p>  \"allow_symbol_change\": true,<\/p>\n<p>  \"calendar\": false,<\/p>\n<p>  \"details\": false,<\/p>\n<p>  \"hide_side_toolbar\": true,<\/p>\n<p>  \"hide_top_toolbar\": false,<\/p>\n<p>  \"hide_legend\": false,<\/p>\n<p>  \"hide_volume\": false,<\/p>\n<p>  \"hotlist\": false,<\/p>\n<p>  \"interval\": \"D\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"locale\": \"en\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"save_image\": true,<\/p>\n<p>  \"style\": \"1\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"symbol\": \"OANDA:NZDUSD\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"theme\": \"dark\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"timezone\": \"Etc\/UTC\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"backgroundColor\": \"#0F0F0F\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"gridColor\": \"rgba(242, 242, 242, 0.2)\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"watchlist\": [],<\/p>\n<p>  \"withdateranges\": false,<\/p>\n<p>  \"compareSymbols\": [],<\/p>\n<p>  \"support_host\": \"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"studies\": [],<\/p>\n<p>  \"width\": 900,<\/p>\n<p>  \"height\": 500<\/p>\n<p>}<\/p>\n  <\/script>\n<\/div>\n<!-- TradingView Widget END -->\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Niveau<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Prix<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Signification technique<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>R\u00e9sistance imm\u00e9diate<\/td><td>0,564<\/td><td>Niveau psychologique proche du plus haut de s\u00e9ance sur le graphique<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>R\u00e9sistance \u00e0 court terme<\/td><td>0,5638<\/td><td>Zone r\u00e9cente de stabilisation avant la derni\u00e8re hausse<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Support imm\u00e9diat<\/td><td>0,5635<\/td><td>Ancienne zone de franchissement et de stabilisation<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Support secondaire<\/td><td>0,563<\/td><td>Fourchette de prix observ\u00e9e plus t\u00f4t en s\u00e9ance<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Support inf\u00e9rieur<\/td><td>0,56275<\/td><td>Zone approximative de d\u00e9part du rebond visible<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La paire a encha\u00een\u00e9 des sommets et des creux de plus en plus \u00e9lev\u00e9s, tout en restant au-dessus de sa moyenne mobile \u00e0 neuf p\u00e9riodes (moyenne des prix des 9 derni\u00e8res p\u00e9riodes, un indicateur simple de tendance). La r\u00e9sistance imm\u00e9diate se situe \u00e0 <strong>0,56400<\/strong>, alors que le NZD\/USD se rapproche de la limite haute de sa zone d\u2019\u00e9changes visible. Un franchissement durable au-dessus de ce niveau pourrait signaler que les acheteurs gardent la main.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00c0 la baisse, <strong>0,56350<\/strong> constitue le premier support notable, apr\u00e8s avoir servi de zone de stabilisation pendant le rebond. Un passage sous ce niveau pourrait ouvrir la voie \u00e0 0,56300, o\u00f9 les prix avaient \u00e9volu\u00e9 avant la remont\u00e9e.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Sc\u00e9narios haussiers et baissiers<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/img_6ad198d7efc97.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Sc\u00e9nario<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">D\u00e9clencheur<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Objectif possible<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Implication de march\u00e9<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Rupture haussi\u00e8re<\/td><td>Franchissement durable au-dessus de 0,56400<\/td><td>Nouvelle hausse, objectif non confirm\u00e9<\/td><td>Possible poursuite de la dynamique haussi\u00e8re<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Poursuite haussi\u00e8re<\/td><td>Le prix se maintient au-dessus de 0,56350<\/td><td>0,56380\u20130,56400<\/td><td>Les acheteurs gardent le contr\u00f4le du rebond<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Rejet baissier<\/td><td>Le prix \u00e9choue \u00e0 franchir 0,56400<\/td><td>0,5635<\/td><td>Possible repli \u00e0 court terme<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Rupture baissi\u00e8re<\/td><td>Le prix passe sous 0,56350<\/td><td>0,56300\u20130,56275<\/td><td>Le rebond perd de la force<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Un sc\u00e9nario haussier pourrait se mettre en place si le NZD\/USD reste au-dessus de <strong>0,56350<\/strong> et franchit 0,56400. La s\u00e9quence de sommets et de creux ascendants indique que les acheteurs gagnent en vitesse, avec l\u2019appui de la moyenne mobile \u00e0 neuf p\u00e9riodes orient\u00e9e \u00e0 la hausse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Un sc\u00e9nario baissier pourrait appara\u00eetre si le NZD\/USD subit des ventes vers <strong>0,56400<\/strong> et ne parvient pas \u00e0 installer une zone d\u2019\u00e9changes plus \u00e9lev\u00e9e. Un premier repli vers 0,56350 testerait la solidit\u00e9 du franchissement r\u00e9cent. Si ce support c\u00e8de, la paire pourrait reculer vers 0,56300, puis vers la zone intrajournali\u00e8re plus basse autour de 0,56275.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Avertissement<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Les niveaux de prix et sc\u00e9narios ci-dessus refl\u00e8tent l\u2019analyse de l\u2019auteur au moment de la r\u00e9daction. Ils ne constituent pas un conseil financier ni une recommandation officielle de VT Markets. Les traders doivent r\u00e9aliser leur propre analyse et g\u00e9rer le risque avec prudence.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pr\u00e9vision NZDUSD : quels facteurs pourraient le faire monter ou baisser ensuite ?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le prochain catalyseur important sera le rapport d\u2019inflation du troisi\u00e8me trimestre en Nouvelle-Z\u00e9lande, attendu la semaine prochaine. Derni\u00e8re grande publication \u00e9conomique avant la r\u00e9union de la RBNZ du 28 octobre, ce chiffre pourrait influencer les anticipations de march\u00e9 sur le calendrier et la probabilit\u00e9 d\u2019une hausse de taux.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Une inflation plus forte qu\u2019attendu pourrait renforcer l\u2019argument en faveur d\u2019un durcissement de la politique mon\u00e9taire (hausse de taux ou conditions de cr\u00e9dit plus strictes) et soutenir le kiwi. \u00c0 l\u2019inverse, une inflation plus faible pourrait r\u00e9duire les attentes d\u2019une hausse imminente, limitant le rebond de la devise. La poursuite du repli des rendements am\u00e9ricains pourrait aussi soutenir la paire, en diminuant l\u2019attrait des actifs libell\u00e9s en dollars (placements dont le prix et les revenus sont en dollars).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Cependant, le rebond pourrait buter si l\u2019inflation n\u00e9o-z\u00e9landaise ressort sous les attentes ou si des donn\u00e9es am\u00e9ricaines ravivent la perspective de nouveaux rel\u00e8vements de taux de la Fed. L\u2019un ou l\u2019autre pourrait faire pencher les anticipations de taux en faveur du dollar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Trader le NZDUSD avec VT Markets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le NZD\/USD fait partie des principales paires de devises (couples de monnaies \u00e9chang\u00e9es sur le march\u00e9 des changes) propos\u00e9es par VT Markets. Les traders peuvent acc\u00e9der au march\u00e9 des changes via l\u2019application VT Markets, MetaTrader 4, MetaTrader 5 et d\u2019autres plateformes compatibles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 des graphiques en temps r\u00e9el, des indicateurs techniques (outils statistiques bas\u00e9s sur les prix) et des outils d\u2019analyse, les traders peuvent suivre les variations du NZD\/USD et \u00e9valuer l\u2019impact des publications \u00e9conomiques, des anticipations de taux et des d\u00e9cisions des banques centrales sur les cours des devises.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<details class=\"wp-block-details is-layout-flow wp-block-details-is-layout-flow\"><summary><strong>Foire aux questions<\/strong><\/summary>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pourquoi le NZD\/USD monte-t-il ?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le NZD\/USD s\u2019est renforc\u00e9 car la baisse des rendements des bons du Tr\u00e9sor am\u00e9ricain a affaibli le dollar, tandis que des propos plus restrictifs (favorables \u00e0 des taux plus \u00e9lev\u00e9s) de l\u2019\u00e9conomiste en chef de la RBNZ, Paul Conway, ont soutenu l\u2019id\u00e9e d\u2019une hausse de taux en Nouvelle-Z\u00e9lande.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Quels sont les niveaux de support cl\u00e9s pour le NZD\/USD ?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le support imm\u00e9diat se situe vers 0,56350, puis 0,56300 et 0,56275. Ces niveaux correspondent \u00e0 des zones r\u00e9centes de stabilisation et de rebond visibles sur le graphique.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Comment l\u2019inflation en Nouvelle-Z\u00e9lande peut-elle affecter le NZD\/USD ?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Une inflation sup\u00e9rieure aux attentes pourrait accro\u00eetre les anticipations d\u2019une hausse de taux de la RBNZ, ce qui pourrait soutenir le dollar n\u00e9o-z\u00e9landais. Une inflation plus faible pourrait au contraire r\u00e9duire ces anticipations et exercer une pression \u00e0 la baisse sur le NZD\/USD.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Quand aura lieu la prochaine d\u00e9cision de taux de la RBNZ ?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La prochaine d\u00e9cision de taux de la RBNZ est pr\u00e9vue le 28 octobre 2026, selon les informations de march\u00e9 fournies. Les traders suivront les donn\u00e9es d\u2019inflation du troisi\u00e8me trimestre avant la r\u00e9union pour des indications sur l\u2019orientation de la politique de la banque centrale.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Le NZD\/USD peut-il continuer de monter ?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le NZD\/USD pourrait prolonger son rebond si la paire franchit 0,56400 et si les anticipations de taux continuent de soutenir le kiwi. En revanche, un retour de la demande de dollars ou des donn\u00e9es n\u00e9o-z\u00e9landaises plus faibles pourraient inverser la dynamique de court terme.<\/p>\n<\/details>\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>Commencez \u00e0 trader d\u00e8s maintenant \u2014 cliquez <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr-latam\/trade-now\/\">ici<\/a> pour cr\u00e9er votre compte r\u00e9el VT Markets.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Et si le kiwi surprenait encore ? Le NZD\/USD rebondit vers 0,5640 apr\u00e8s un creux de 18 mois, dop\u00e9 par la baisse des rendements US et des anticipations haussi\u00e8res RBNZ. \u00c0 surveiller : inflation n\u00e9o-z\u00e9landaise.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69851,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69852","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 5.0.1.1 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Et si le kiwi surprenait encore ? Le NZD\/USD rebondit vers 0,5640 apr\u00e8s un creux de 18 mois, dop\u00e9 par la baisse des rendements US et des anticipations haussi\u00e8res RBNZ. \u00c0 surveiller : inflation n\u00e9o-z\u00e9landaise.\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n\t<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr-latam\/analysis\/new-zealand-dollar-recovers-from-18-month-low\/\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"generator\" content=\"All in One SEO Pro (AIOSEO) 5.0.1.1\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"VT Markets\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Le dollar n\u00e9o-z\u00e9landais se redresse apr\u00e8s un plus bas de 18 mois - VT Markets\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Et si le kiwi surprenait encore ? 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