{"id":69609,"date":"2026-10-12T08:19:56","date_gmt":"2026-10-12T08:19:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr-latam\/uncategorized\/brent-oil-falls-as-trumps-energy-ceasefire-announcement-weighs-on-prices\/"},"modified":"2026-10-12T08:19:56","modified_gmt":"2026-10-12T08:19:56","slug":"brent-oil-falls-as-trumps-energy-ceasefire-announcement-weighs-on-prices","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr-latam\/analysis\/brent-oil-falls-as-trumps-energy-ceasefire-announcement-weighs-on-prices\/","title":{"rendered":"Le Brent recule, p\u00e9nalis\u00e9 par l\u2019annonce de Trump sur un cessez-le-feu \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/img_6acc78f318dcd.webp\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Points cl\u00e9s<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Le UKOUSD s\u2019\u00e9change \u00e0 106,969 $ (en baisse de 1,829 $, soit -1,68 %), apr\u00e8s un plus haut \u00e0 108,718 $ et un plus bas \u00e0 105,433 $.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Les contrats \u00e0 terme (prix fix\u00e9 pour une date future) sur le Brent ont recul\u00e9 lundi matin apr\u00e8s l\u2019annonce par le pr\u00e9sident am\u00e9ricain Donald Trump d\u2019une tr\u00eave \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique entre la Russie et l\u2019Ukraine.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Le pr\u00e9sident ukrainien Volodymyr Zelenskyy dit attendre des pr\u00e9cisions sur l\u2019accord propos\u00e9, tandis que la Russie n\u2019a pas confirm\u00e9 publiquement sa participation.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Les attaques des Houthis contre l\u2019Arabie saoudite, dont des frappes meurtri\u00e8res sur l\u2019a\u00e9roport international de Riyad, alimentent les craintes sur la stabilit\u00e9 r\u00e9gionale et sur d\u2019\u00e9ventuelles perturbations de l\u2019approvisionnement \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Les traders (op\u00e9rateurs de march\u00e9) suivent de pr\u00e8s l\u2019inflation am\u00e9ricaine, la r\u00e9union d\u2019octobre de la R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale (Fed, banque centrale des \u00c9tats-Unis) et toute \u00e9volution pouvant toucher l\u2019\u00e9nergie russe et moyen-orientale.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Mouvement de march\u00e9<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les prix du p\u00e9trole ont recul\u00e9 lundi 12 octobre 2026, apr\u00e8s l\u2019annonce par le pr\u00e9sident am\u00e9ricain Donald Trump d\u2019une tr\u00eave \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique entre la Russie et l\u2019Ukraine, ce qui a raviv\u00e9 l\u2019id\u00e9e d\u2019un risque moindre de perturbations des exportations russes. Les contrats \u00e0 terme sur le Brent ont baiss\u00e9 <strong>\u00e0 106,969 $, soit -1,68 %<\/strong>. Cette annonce intervient apr\u00e8s un accord s\u00e9par\u00e9 \u00c9tats-Unis\u2013Russie visant \u00e0 remettre davantage de diesel russe sur le march\u00e9. \u00c0 ce stade, la tr\u00eave annonc\u00e9e n\u2019a toutefois pas \u00e9t\u00e9 formalis\u00e9e par un accord confirm\u00e9 entre Kyiv et Moscou.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Malgr\u00e9 la baisse d\u2019ensemble, le UKOUSD s\u2019est redress\u00e9 d\u2019environ <strong>106,40 $<\/strong> vers 107,00 sur la p\u00e9riode observ\u00e9e. Ce rebond montre que des acheteurs se positionnent sur les replis, mais la tendance du jour indique que la pression vendeuse reste pr\u00e9sente.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pourquoi les traders surveillent<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Si la tr\u00eave \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique Russie\u2013Ukraine se concr\u00e9tise, elle pourrait r\u00e9duire les tensions sur l\u2019offre (risque de manquer de p\u00e9trole) qui ont soutenu les prix ces derniers mois. Mais son application reste incertaine. Sans validation claire des deux gouvernements, le march\u00e9 peut rapidement changer de direction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Dans le m\u00eame temps, les forces houthis ont intensifi\u00e9 leurs attaques contre l\u2019Arabie saoudite. Des frappes sur l\u2019a\u00e9roport international de Riyad ce week-end ont fait au moins 12 morts samedi, puis un autre d\u00e9c\u00e8s apr\u00e8s l\u2019attaque de dimanche. Ces attaques relancent les inqui\u00e9tudes sur la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 r\u00e9gionale, alors que des incidents concernant des p\u00e9troliers (navires transportant du p\u00e9trole) pr\u00e8s du d\u00e9troit d\u2019Ormuz continuent de menacer les routes maritimes de l\u2019\u00e9nergie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00c0 ce stade, ces attaques n\u2019ont pas entra\u00een\u00e9 de baisse comparable de la production, mais le risque de perturbations du transport maritime, de hausse des co\u00fbts d\u2019assurance et de dommages aux infrastructures d\u2019exportation reste un facteur de soutien pour les prix du brut.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Niveaux techniques cl\u00e9s<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<!-- TradingView Widget BEGIN -->\n<div class=\"tradingview-widget-container\">\n  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-container__widget\"><\/div>\n  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-copyright\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/symbols\/UKOIL\/?exchange=TVC\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><span class=\"blue-text\">UKOIL chart<\/span><\/a><span class=\"trademark\">&nbsp;by TradingView<\/span><\/div>\n  <script type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.tradingview.com\/external-embedding\/embed-widget-advanced-chart.js\" async>\n  {\n  \"allow_symbol_change\": true,\n  \"calendar\": false,\n  \"details\": false,\n  \"hide_side_toolbar\": true,\n  \"hide_top_toolbar\": false,\n  \"hide_legend\": false,\n  \"hide_volume\": false,\n  \"hotlist\": false,\n  \"interval\": \"D\",\n  \"locale\": \"en\",\n  \"save_image\": true,\n  \"style\": \"1\",\n  \"symbol\": \"TVC:UKOIL\",\n  \"theme\": \"dark\",\n  \"timezone\": \"Etc\/UTC\",\n  \"backgroundColor\": \"#0F0F0F\",\n  \"gridColor\": \"rgba(242, 242, 242, 0.2)\",\n  \"watchlist\": [],\n  \"withdateranges\": false,\n  \"compareSymbols\": [],\n  \"support_host\": \"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\",\n  \"studies\": [],\n  \"width\": 900,\n  \"height\": 500\n}\n  <\/script>\n<\/div>\n<!-- TradingView Widget END -->\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Niveau de prix<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Type<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Lecture technique<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>107,00 $\u2013107,05 $<\/td><td>R\u00e9sistance<\/td><td>Sommet r\u00e9cent en s\u00e9ance et seuil psychologique (niveau \u00ab rond \u00bb souvent surveill\u00e9)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>106,85 $\u2013106,90 $<\/td><td>R\u00e9sistance proche<\/td><td>Zone de stabilisation r\u00e9cente (phase o\u00f9 le prix \u00e9volue dans une fourchette)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>106,80 $<\/td><td>Support proche<\/td><td>Zone de rupture r\u00e9cente et proximit\u00e9 d\u2019une moyenne mobile (moyenne des prix sur une p\u00e9riode, utilis\u00e9e comme rep\u00e8re de tendance)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>106,60 $\u2013106,65 $<\/td><td>Support secondaire<\/td><td>Ancienne zone de stabilisation en s\u00e9ance<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>106,40 $\u2013106,45 $<\/td><td>Support bas<\/td><td>Borne basse de la fourchette observ\u00e9e<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le UKOUSD s\u2019est redress\u00e9 d\u2019environ <strong>106,40 $<\/strong> vers 107,00. La zone des 107,00 $ constitue la r\u00e9sistance imm\u00e9diate \u00e0 surveiller. Les prix sont bri\u00e8vement pass\u00e9s au-dessus avant de refluer, signe que des vendeurs restent actifs pr\u00e8s du haut de la fourchette.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00c0 la baisse, 106,80 $ est la premi\u00e8re zone o\u00f9 les acheteurs peuvent tenter de d\u00e9fendre le rebond. Une cassure (passage net sous un niveau) sous cette zone pourrait ouvrir la voie vers <strong>106,60 $<\/strong>, puis vers les plus bas proches de 106,40 $.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Sc\u00e9narios haussiers et baissiers<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/img_6acc78f656f5a.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Sc\u00e9nario<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">D\u00e9clencheur<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Objectifs possibles<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Signal d\u2019invalidation<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Sortie haussi\u00e8re<\/td><td>Maintien au-dessus de 107,05 $<\/td><td>107,20 $, puis 107,40 $<\/td><td>Retour sous 106,85 $<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Rebond haussier<\/td><td>Le prix tient au-dessus de 106,80 $<\/td><td>106,95 $\u2013107,05 $<\/td><td>Cassure sous 106,60 $<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Rejet baissier<\/td><td>\u00c9chec sous 107,00 $\u2013107,05 $<\/td><td>106,80 $, puis 106,60 $<\/td><td>Franchissement durable au-dessus de 107,05 $<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Rupture baissi\u00e8re<\/td><td>Maintien sous 106,60 $<\/td><td>106,45 $, puis 106,40 $<\/td><td>Retour au-dessus de 106,80 $<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Un sc\u00e9nario haussier pourrait se mettre en place si le UKOUSD conserve un support <strong>au-dessus de 106,80 $<\/strong> et franchit la r\u00e9sistance 107,00 $\u2013107,05. Un tel mouvement signalerait un renforcement de la dynamique d\u2019achat \u00e0 court terme, avec un potentiel vers 107,20 $ puis 107,40 $.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Un sc\u00e9nario baissier pourrait appara\u00eetre si le UKOUSD n\u2019arrive pas \u00e0 d\u00e9passer la zone des 107,00 $ et recule <strong>sous 106,80 $<\/strong>. Une cassure sous 106,60 $ fragiliserait le rebond en s\u00e9ance et remettrait au centre 106,45 $\u2013106,40 $.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Clause de non-responsabilit\u00e9<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Les niveaux de prix et sc\u00e9narios pr\u00e9sent\u00e9s refl\u00e8tent l\u2019analyse de l\u2019auteur au moment de la r\u00e9daction. Ils ne constituent pas un conseil en investissement ni une recommandation officielle de VT Markets. Les traders doivent faire leur propre analyse et g\u00e9rer le risque (possibilit\u00e9 de perte) avec rigueur.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pr\u00e9vision UKOUSD : qu\u2019est-ce qui pourrait le faire monter ou baisser ?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Des attaques contre des installations \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques, des perturbations prolong\u00e9es des p\u00e9troliers, ou un \u00e9chec des discussions sur la tr\u00eave pourraient raviver les craintes sur l\u2019offre. Une demande mondiale plus forte que pr\u00e9vu (consommation de p\u00e9trole) pourrait aussi soutenir les prix.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00c0 l\u2019inverse, une confirmation d\u2019une tr\u00eave \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique Russie\u2013Ukraine, davantage de livraisons de carburants russes, une am\u00e9lioration des conditions de navigation au Moyen-Orient ou des statistiques \u00e9conomiques d\u00e9cevantes pourraient r\u00e9duire les tensions sur l\u2019offre et peser sur les cours.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Hors g\u00e9opolitique, les traders se pr\u00e9parent aussi \u00e0 la publication de l\u2019indice des prix \u00e0 la consommation (CPI, mesure de l\u2019inflation) aux \u00c9tats-Unis, attendue mercredi 14 octobre. Une inflation plus \u00e9lev\u00e9e que pr\u00e9vu peut renforcer l\u2019id\u00e9e d\u2019une Fed plus stricte (taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat plus \u00e9lev\u00e9s), soutenir le dollar et accentuer la pression sur les mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res libell\u00e9es en dollars (cot\u00e9es en dollars), comme le p\u00e9trole.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Trader le UKOUSD avec VT Markets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les march\u00e9s p\u00e9troliers restent tr\u00e8s sensibles \u00e0 la g\u00e9opolitique, aux variations d\u2019offre et aux statistiques. Pour les traders qui suivent le UKOUSD, croiser ces \u00e9l\u00e9ments avec les niveaux techniques peut aider \u00e0 lire le contexte.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Avec VT Markets, les traders peuvent acc\u00e9der \u00e0 des CFD (contrats sur diff\u00e9rence : produit permettant de sp\u00e9culer sur la hausse ou la baisse sans d\u00e9tenir l\u2019actif) sur le p\u00e9trole et prendre des positions \u00e0 l\u2019achat (parier sur une hausse) ou \u00e0 la vente (parier sur une baisse) selon leur sc\u00e9nario.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">VT Markets donne acc\u00e8s \u00e0 des plateformes de trading comme MetaTrader 5 (MT5), le Web Trading et l\u2019application VT Markets, ainsi qu\u2019\u00e0 des outils graphiques et des ressources d\u2019analyse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<details class=\"wp-block-details is-layout-flow wp-block-details-is-layout-flow\"><summary><strong>Foire aux questions<\/strong><\/summary>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pourquoi le UKOUSD baisse-t-il aujourd\u2019hui ?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le UKOUSD est sous pression apr\u00e8s l\u2019annonce par Donald Trump d\u2019une tr\u00eave \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique possible entre la Russie et l\u2019Ukraine, ce qui r\u00e9duit l\u2019anticipation de perturbations des livraisons russes. L\u2019accord n\u2019\u00e9tant pas confirm\u00e9 par les deux pays, l\u2019incertitude reste \u00e9lev\u00e9e.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Les prix du p\u00e9trole vont-ils continuer de baisser ?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Une poursuite du repli est possible si la tr\u00eave est appliqu\u00e9e et si davantage d\u2019\u00e9nergie russe arrive sur le march\u00e9. Mais la reprise des attaques contre l\u2019Arabie saoudite et les risques sur les routes maritimes pr\u00e8s du d\u00e9troit d\u2019Ormuz peuvent limiter la baisse ou provoquer un rebond.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Quel est l\u2019impact de l\u2019inflation am\u00e9ricaine sur le UKOUSD ?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Une inflation am\u00e9ricaine plus \u00e9lev\u00e9e peut modifier les attentes sur les taux de la Fed et renforcer le dollar. Un dollar plus fort p\u00e8se souvent sur le prix du p\u00e9trole cot\u00e9 en dollars. En parall\u00e8le, la crainte d\u2019un ralentissement \u00e9conomique peut r\u00e9duire les anticipations de demande de brut. Des perturbations de l\u2019offre peuvent compenser ces effets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Peut-on acheter et vendre le UKOUSD sur VT Markets ?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">VT Markets propose des CFD sur le p\u00e9trole, permettant aux clients \u00e9ligibles de prendre des positions \u00e0 l\u2019achat ou \u00e0 la vente sans d\u00e9tenir de p\u00e9trole physique.<\/p>\n<\/details>\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>Commencez \u00e0 trader d\u00e8s maintenant \u2014 cliquez <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr-latam\/trade-now\/\">ici<\/a> pour cr\u00e9er votre compte r\u00e9el VT Markets.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Coup de froid sur le Brent : le UKOUSD recule \u00e0 106,97 $ apr\u00e8s l\u2019annonce d\u2019une tr\u00eave \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique Russie-Ukraine. Mais l\u2019accord reste flou, sur fond de risques houthis et d\u2019inflation am\u00e9ricaine.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69608,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69609","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 5.0.1.1 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Coup de froid sur le Brent : le UKOUSD recule \u00e0 106,97 $ apr\u00e8s l\u2019annonce d\u2019une tr\u00eave \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique Russie-Ukraine. 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