{"id":69343,"date":"2026-10-07T08:00:36","date_gmt":"2026-10-07T08:00:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr-latam\/uncategorized\/silver-drops-as-oil-rebounds-and-high-yields-pressure-xagusd\/"},"modified":"2026-10-07T08:00:36","modified_gmt":"2026-10-07T08:00:36","slug":"silver-drops-as-oil-rebounds-and-high-yields-pressure-xagusd","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr-latam\/analysis\/silver-drops-as-oil-rebounds-and-high-yields-pressure-xagusd\/","title":{"rendered":"L\u2019argent recule alors que le p\u00e9trole rebondit et que les rendements \u00e9lev\u00e9s p\u00e8sent sur le XAGUSD"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/img_6ac5c52d11054.webp\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Points cl\u00e9s<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>L\u2019argent a recul\u00e9 vers <strong>60,70 $<\/strong>, en baisse d\u2019environ <strong>1,1 %<\/strong> lors de la derni\u00e8re s\u00e9ance.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>La hausse du p\u00e9trole maintient le risque de hausse des prix (inflation) au premier plan, sur fond de fortes inqui\u00e9tudes sur l\u2019offre au Moyen-Orient.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Les rendements \u00e9lev\u00e9s des bons du Tr\u00e9sor am\u00e9ricain augmentent le \u00ab co\u00fbt d\u2019opportunit\u00e9 \u00bb de l\u2019argent\u202f: d\u00e9tenir un m\u00e9tal pr\u00e9cieux, qui ne verse pas d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat, devient moins attractif quand les obligations rapportent davantage.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>La faiblesse des cr\u00e9ations d\u2019emplois en septembre a r\u00e9duit les attentes d\u2019une nouvelle hausse de taux de la R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale (Fed) en octobre.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Le prochain facteur cl\u00e9 sera la publication des <strong>minutes<\/strong> de la Fed (le compte rendu d\u00e9taill\u00e9 de sa r\u00e9union), d\u00e9terminantes pour les anticipations de taux et pour le dollar.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Mouvement de march\u00e9<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le XAGUSD (cours de l\u2019argent libell\u00e9 en dollar am\u00e9ricain) \u00e9volue autour de <strong>60,697<\/strong>, apr\u00e8s un repli depuis un plus haut intrajournalier \u00e0 <strong>61,491<\/strong>. Le point bas de la s\u00e9ance s\u2019\u00e9tablit \u00e0 <strong>60,677<\/strong>, ce qui maintient l\u2019argent proche du bas de sa fourchette quotidienne.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">L\u2019argent avait d\u2019abord progress\u00e9 vers la zone <strong>60,95\u201361,00<\/strong>, avant un retournement. Le prix a ensuite encha\u00een\u00e9 des sommets et des creux de plus en plus bas, signe d\u2019un essoufflement, avec une acc\u00e9l\u00e9ration des ventes apr\u00e8s la cassure sous <strong>60,85<\/strong>. Les tentatives de reprise vers <strong>60,80<\/strong> ont \u00e9chou\u00e9, puis le prix a gliss\u00e9 vers <strong>60,70<\/strong>. \u00c0 court terme, la configuration reste fragile. Les derni\u00e8res bougies (barres de prix sur le graphique) sugg\u00e8rent toutefois un ralentissement des ventes pr\u00e8s de <strong>60,68\u201360,70<\/strong>, zone qui constitue un test imm\u00e9diat pour les vendeurs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pourquoi les op\u00e9rateurs surveillent<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">L\u2019argent r\u00e9agit \u00e0 la fois \u00e0 des attentes plus modestes de resserrement mon\u00e9taire \u00e0 court terme aux \u00c9tats-Unis et au regain de pression sur l\u2019inflation li\u00e9 \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9nergie. Aux \u00c9tats-Unis, la progression de l\u2019emploi a nettement ralenti en septembre, avec seulement <strong>29\u202f000 cr\u00e9ations de postes<\/strong>, tandis que les chiffres pr\u00e9c\u00e9dents ont \u00e9t\u00e9 r\u00e9vis\u00e9s en baisse. Cela a r\u00e9duit l\u2019id\u00e9e que la Fed rel\u00e8vera \u00e0 nouveau ses taux lors de sa r\u00e9union d\u2019octobre. La probabilit\u00e9 implicite sur les march\u00e9s (estim\u00e9e via les prix des produits de taux) est d\u2019environ 16 %, contre 70 % une semaine plus t\u00f4t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">En temps normal, cela soutiendrait les m\u00e9taux pr\u00e9cieux, mais les rendements \u00e9lev\u00e9s et le p\u00e9trole rendent l\u2019actif moins attractif. Le rendement (taux de march\u00e9) du Treasury \u00e0 10 ans reste proche de <strong>5,3 %<\/strong>, tandis que le p\u00e9trole repart \u00e0 la hausse avec les inqui\u00e9tudes sur l\u2019offre au Moyen-Orient. Le Brent est repass\u00e9 au-dessus de <strong>101 $ le baril<\/strong>, ce qui remet le risque d\u2019inflation au centre du jeu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le prochain \u00e9l\u00e9ment d\u00e9clencheur est la publication des <strong>minutes de la r\u00e9union de septembre de la Fed<\/strong> (compte rendu). Les investisseurs chercheront des indices sur la mani\u00e8re dont les responsables \u00e9valuent l\u2019inflation et sur la probabilit\u00e9 d\u2019un durcissement de la politique mon\u00e9taire plus tard cette ann\u00e9e.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Niveaux techniques cl\u00e9s<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<!-- TradingView Widget BEGIN -->\n<div class=\"tradingview-widget-container\">\n  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-container__widget\"><\/div>\n  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-copyright\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/symbols\/SILVER\/?exchange=TVC\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><span class=\"blue-text\">SILVER chart<\/span><\/a><span class=\"trademark\"> by TradingView<\/span><\/div>\n  <script type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.tradingview.com\/external-embedding\/embed-widget-advanced-chart.js\" async>\n  {\n  \"allow_symbol_change\": true,\n  \"calendar\": false,\n  \"details\": false,\n  \"hide_side_toolbar\": true,\n  \"hide_top_toolbar\": false,\n  \"hide_legend\": false,\n  \"hide_volume\": false,\n  \"hotlist\": false,\n  \"interval\": \"D\",\n  \"locale\": \"en\",\n  \"save_image\": true,\n  \"style\": \"1\",\n  \"symbol\": \"TVC:SILVER\",\n  \"theme\": \"dark\",\n  \"timezone\": \"Etc\/UTC\",\n  \"backgroundColor\": \"#0F0F0F\",\n  \"gridColor\": \"rgba(242, 242, 242, 0.2)\",\n  \"watchlist\": [],\n  \"withdateranges\": false,\n  \"compareSymbols\": [],\n  \"support_host\": \"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\",\n  \"studies\": [],\n  \"width\": 900,\n  \"height\": 500\n}\n  <\/script>\n<\/div>\n<!-- TradingView Widget END -->\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Niveau<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Zone<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Signification technique<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>61<\/td><td>R\u00e9sistance majeure<\/td><td>Niveau psychologique et proche de l\u2019ancien sommet intrajournalier<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>60,9<\/td><td>R\u00e9sistance<\/td><td>Zone o\u00f9 la hausse pr\u00e9c\u00e9dente a commenc\u00e9 \u00e0 s\u2019essouffler<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>60,8<\/td><td>Pivot de court terme<\/td><td>Zone de stabilisation r\u00e9cente et de rejets r\u00e9p\u00e9t\u00e9s<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>60,7<\/td><td>Support imm\u00e9diat<\/td><td>Zone de prix actuelle et rep\u00e8re psychologique de court terme<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>60,677<\/td><td>Point bas intrajournalier<\/td><td>Plus bas observ\u00e9 sur la s\u00e9ance<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>60,6<\/td><td>Support inf\u00e9rieur<\/td><td>Prochaine zone de baisse si le point bas de s\u00e9ance c\u00e8de<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le premier affrontement technique se joue autour de <strong>60,70<\/strong>. Un maintien au-dessus de cette zone pourrait permettre \u00e0 l\u2019argent de se stabiliser et de retenter un rebond vers <strong>60,80<\/strong>. En revanche, une cassure durable sous le point bas de s\u00e9ance \u00e0 <strong>60,677<\/strong> confirmerait une d\u00e9gradation suppl\u00e9mentaire de la dynamique de court terme et pourrait ouvrir la voie vers <strong>60,60<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00c0 la hausse, <strong>60,80<\/strong> est le premier niveau \u00e0 reprendre pour les acheteurs. Un mouvement plus net au-dessus de <strong>60,90<\/strong> affaiblirait la s\u00e9quence baissi\u00e8re (succession de sommets et de creux plus bas) et remettrait <strong>61,00<\/strong> au centre de l\u2019attention.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Sc\u00e9narios haussier et baissier<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/img_6ac5c52e8e9af.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Sc\u00e9nario<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">D\u00e9clencheur<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Confirmation<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Haussier<\/td><td>Cassure au-dessus de 60,80<\/td><td>Retour au-dessus de la moyenne mobile \u00e0 9 p\u00e9riodes (moyenne des 9 derni\u00e8res bougies\/prix) et formation de sommets de court terme plus \u00e9lev\u00e9s<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Rebond<\/td><td>Maintien au-dessus de 60,70<\/td><td>Les acheteurs d\u00e9fendent le support et le prix se stabilise au-dessus du point bas de s\u00e9ance<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Baissier<\/td><td>Cassure sous 60,677<\/td><td>La pression vendeuse s\u2019accentue et le prix reste sous la moyenne mobile orient\u00e9e \u00e0 la baisse<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le sc\u00e9nario haussier ne se limite pas \u00e0 un maintien pr\u00e8s de <strong>60,70<\/strong>. Les acheteurs doivent reprendre <strong>60,80<\/strong> et repasser au-dessus de la moyenne mobile de court terme (indicateur qui lisse les prix) pour que la dynamique s\u2019am\u00e9liore r\u00e9ellement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le sc\u00e9nario baissier reste le plus coh\u00e9rent avec le graphique actuel. L\u2019argent \u00e9volue sous la moyenne mobile \u00e0 9 p\u00e9riodes et chaque rebond a produit des sommets plus bas. Une cassure sous <strong>60,677<\/strong> pourrait prolonger le mouvement vers <strong>60,60<\/strong>. \u00c0 l\u2019inverse, un retour au-dessus de <strong>60,80<\/strong> commencerait \u00e0 fragiliser cette structure baissi\u00e8re.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Avertissement<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pr\u00e9vision sur l\u2019argent : \u00e0 quoi s\u2019attendre ensuite ?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">L\u2019argent pourrait rester sous pression si les prix du p\u00e9trole continuent de grimper, ce qui renforcerait les craintes d\u2019inflation. Cela peut maintenir les rendements des obligations am\u00e9ricaines \u00e0 un niveau \u00e9lev\u00e9 et pousser les march\u00e9s \u00e0 r\u00e9\u00e9valuer \u00e0 la hausse la probabilit\u00e9 d\u2019un nouveau durcissement de la politique de la Fed cette ann\u00e9e.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Un dollar plus fort est un autre facteur important. Si les minutes de la Fed montrent un soutien \u00e0 une politique mon\u00e9taire restrictive (taux \u00e9lev\u00e9s pour freiner l\u2019inflation) ou la possibilit\u00e9 d\u2019une hausse de taux suppl\u00e9mentaire, les rendements et le dollar pourraient se renforcer, ce qui compliquerait un rebond de l\u2019argent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00c0 l\u2019inverse, l\u2019argent pourrait remonter si les responsables adoptent une approche prudente apr\u00e8s la faiblesse des donn\u00e9es sur l\u2019emploi. Des attentes de hausses de taux plus limit\u00e9es pourraient faire baisser les rendements et le dollar, un contexte g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement plus favorable aux m\u00e9taux pr\u00e9cieux.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Trader le XAGUSD avec VT Markets<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/tag\/silver\/?utm_source=DMA\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">L\u2019argent<\/a> via un CFD (contrat sur diff\u00e9rence\u202f: produit d\u00e9riv\u00e9 permettant de sp\u00e9culer sur les variations de prix sans poss\u00e9der le m\u00e9tal) permet de s\u2019exposer aux mouvements du cours sans d\u00e9tenir l\u2019actif physique. Le XAGUSD est influenc\u00e9 par les anticipations de taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat, l\u2019\u00e9volution de l\u2019inflation, la demande industrielle, les mouvements de change et la g\u00e9opolitique. Consultez <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/discover\/what-is-silver-trading-how-to-trade-silver-complete-guide\/?utm_source=DMA\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">un guide complet sur le trading de l\u2019argent et les m\u00e9thodes pour le trader en 2026<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Avec VT Markets, les traders peuvent suivre l\u2019\u00e9volution de l\u2019argent, ainsi que d\u2019autres m\u00e9taux pr\u00e9cieux, le forex (march\u00e9 des changes), les indices et les mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res, via des outils et plateformes avanc\u00e9s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<details class=\"wp-block-details is-layout-flow wp-block-details-is-layout-flow\"><summary><strong>FAQ<\/strong><\/summary>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pourquoi l\u2019argent baisse-t-il aujourd\u2019hui ?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">L\u2019argent est sous pression car le p\u00e9trole repart \u00e0 la hausse et les rendements des obligations am\u00e9ricaines restent \u00e9lev\u00e9s. Ces deux \u00e9l\u00e9ments entretiennent les craintes d\u2019inflation et de taux. Le graphique indique aussi une perte de dynamique \u00e0 court terme.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Comment les minutes de la Fed peuvent-elles influencer l\u2019argent ?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Des minutes plus \u00ab hawkish \u00bb (ton plus ferme, sugg\u00e9rant des taux plus \u00e9lev\u00e9s pour combattre l\u2019inflation) pourraient soutenir les rendements et le dollar, et peser sur l\u2019argent. Un ton plus prudent pourrait r\u00e9duire les attentes de hausses de taux et soutenir le XAGUSD.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pourquoi les rendements obligataires influencent-ils l\u2019argent ?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">L\u2019argent ne verse pas d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat. Quand les rendements des obligations montent, les placements qui rapportent un int\u00e9r\u00eat deviennent relativement plus attractifs, ce qui peut peser sur les m\u00e9taux pr\u00e9cieux.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">L\u2019argent peut-il repasser au-dessus de 61 $ ?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Oui, mais le graphique sugg\u00e8re que les acheteurs doivent d\u2019abord reprendre <strong>60,80<\/strong> puis <strong>60,90<\/strong>. Une cassure durable au-dessus de ces zones am\u00e9liorerait la structure de court terme et remettrait <strong>61,00<\/strong> en ligne de mire.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Dois-je trader l\u2019argent ?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Cela d\u00e9pend de votre tol\u00e9rance au risque, de votre strat\u00e9gie et de votre vision du march\u00e9. L\u2019argent est tr\u00e8s sensible aux variations des taux am\u00e9ricains, des rendements obligataires, du dollar, des anticipations d\u2019inflation et au contexte g\u00e9opolitique.<\/p>\n<\/details>\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>Commencez \u00e0 trader d\u00e8s maintenant \u2014 cliquez <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr-latam\/trade-now\/\">ici<\/a> pour cr\u00e9er votre compte r\u00e9el VT Markets.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>L\u2019argent d\u00e9croche \u00e0 60,70 $ (-1,1 %) : l\u2019envol\u00e9e du p\u00e9trole ravive l\u2019inflation, tandis que les rendements US \u00e9lev\u00e9s p\u00e9nalisent le m\u00e9tal. Les minutes de la Fed seront le prochain catalyseur.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69342,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69343","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 5.0.1.1 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"L\u2019argent d\u00e9croche \u00e0 60,70 $ (-1,1 %) : l\u2019envol\u00e9e du p\u00e9trole ravive l\u2019inflation, tandis que les rendements US \u00e9lev\u00e9s p\u00e9nalisent le m\u00e9tal. 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