{"id":69260,"date":"2026-10-05T08:11:42","date_gmt":"2026-10-05T08:11:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr-latam\/uncategorized\/gold-tests-4210-after-weak-nfp-pushes-treasury-yields-lower\/"},"modified":"2026-10-05T08:11:42","modified_gmt":"2026-10-05T08:11:42","slug":"gold-tests-4210-after-weak-nfp-pushes-treasury-yields-lower","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr-latam\/analysis\/gold-tests-4210-after-weak-nfp-pushes-treasury-yields-lower\/","title":{"rendered":"L\u2019or teste les 4\u202f210\u202f$ apr\u00e8s un rapport NFP d\u00e9cevant qui fait reculer les rendements des Treasuries"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Copy-of-discover-12-2-1024x559.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-69959\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Points cl\u00e9s<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Les cr\u00e9ations d\u2019emplois <strong>hors agriculture<\/strong> (NFP, l\u2019indicateur mensuel de l\u2019emploi aux \u00c9tats-Unis) n\u2019ont augment\u00e9 que de <strong>29 000 en septembre<\/strong>, bien en dessous des <strong>90 000 attendus<\/strong>, tandis que le chiffre d\u2019ao\u00fbt a \u00e9t\u00e9 r\u00e9vis\u00e9 en baisse \u00e0 133 000.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Ces chiffres d\u2019emploi d\u00e9cevants ont r\u00e9duit la probabilit\u00e9 d\u2019une nouvelle hausse de taux de la Fed (banque centrale am\u00e9ricaine) en octobre, ce qui a d\u2019abord soutenu l\u2019or.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>L\u2019or a d\u2019abord progress\u00e9 vers <strong>4 210 $<\/strong>, mais la hausse n\u2019a pas tenu lorsque les <strong>rendements des bons du Tr\u00e9sor<\/strong> (taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat des obligations d\u2019\u00c9tat am\u00e9ricaines) et le dollar se sont redress\u00e9s.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>L\u2019<strong>indice du dollar<\/strong> (mesure de la force du dollar face \u00e0 un panier de devises) a recul\u00e9 vers <strong>101,9<\/strong>, apportant un soutien suppl\u00e9mentaire \u00e0 l\u2019or.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Les prochains \u00e9l\u00e9ments cl\u00e9s seront les donn\u00e9es d\u2019inflation am\u00e9ricaines et les prises de parole de la Fed, d\u00e9terminantes pour les anticipations de la r\u00e9union d\u2019octobre.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Mouvement de march\u00e9<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le dollar a recul\u00e9 et les rendements des bons du Tr\u00e9sor ont baiss\u00e9 juste apr\u00e8s la publication : le march\u00e9 a renforc\u00e9 l\u2019id\u00e9e que la Fed pourrait laisser ses taux inchang\u00e9s en octobre. L\u2019or a d\u2019abord progress\u00e9 vers <strong>4 210 $<\/strong>, puis la hausse s\u2019est essouffl\u00e9e quand les rendements obligataires ont rebondi depuis leurs plus bas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">L\u2019or a ouvert autour de <strong>4 141,67 $<\/strong>, a bri\u00e8vement gliss\u00e9 vers <strong>4 124,64 $<\/strong>, puis s\u2019est redress\u00e9 \u00e0 <strong>4 149,76 $<\/strong>. Le prix a ensuite acc\u00e9l\u00e9r\u00e9 et est repass\u00e9 au-dessus de 4 140 $ avant de tester la zone 4 150\u20134 155 $. Le rythme s\u2019aplatit pr\u00e8s du sommet du mouvement. Le XAUUSD (cours de l\u2019or contre dollar) \u00e9volue pr\u00e8s de sa <strong>moyenne mobile \u00e0 9 p\u00e9riodes<\/strong> (moyenne des 9 derni\u00e8res bougies, utilis\u00e9e pour lire la tendance \u00e0 court terme) apr\u00e8s l\u2019avoir d\u00e9pass\u00e9e bri\u00e8vement, ce qui montre un regain de demande \u00e0 court terme sans cassure nette.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Ce que surveillent les traders<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">L\u2019or a r\u00e9agi rapidement au rapport sur l\u2019emploi am\u00e9ricain, plus faible que pr\u00e9vu, les traders r\u00e9duisant leurs attentes de resserrement mon\u00e9taire (hausse des taux) de la R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale \u00e0 court terme. En septembre, les cr\u00e9ations d\u2019emplois hors agriculture n\u2019ont \u00e9t\u00e9 que de 29 000, contre 90 000 attendus, tandis que le taux de ch\u00f4mage est mont\u00e9 \u00e0 4,2 %.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Gold Rises as Softer-Than-Expected Inflation Data Tempers Rate-Hike Bets <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/CLcXGmwcKF\">https:\/\/t.co\/CLcXGmwcKF<\/a><\/p>&mdash; WSJ Markets (@WSJmarkets) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/WSJmarkets\/status\/2106925391101219173?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 5, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le rapport de septembre a fait bouger les anticipations. Au lieu de renforcer le sc\u00e9nario d\u2019une nouvelle hausse, les chiffres ont accru la probabilit\u00e9 d\u2019une pause de la Fed en octobre. Lundi, les prix de march\u00e9 (probabilit\u00e9s implicites dans les contrats de taux) ne donnaient plus que <strong>18 %<\/strong> de chances \u00e0 une hausse en octobre, m\u00eame si l\u2019hypoth\u00e8se d\u2019un rel\u00e8vement plus tard dans l\u2019ann\u00e9e restait pr\u00e9sente.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Des attentes de taux plus bas peuvent faire baisser les rendements des bons du Tr\u00e9sor et r\u00e9duire le <strong>co\u00fbt d\u2019opportunit\u00e9<\/strong> (le rendement auquel on renonce en d\u00e9tenant un actif sans int\u00e9r\u00eats, comme l\u2019or). Un dollar plus faible peut aussi soutenir l\u2019or. Mais le retournement de vendredi rappelle que le lien n\u2019est pas automatique : les rendements ont repris de la hauteur apr\u00e8s leur baisse initiale, et les craintes d\u2019inflation limitent la capacit\u00e9 du march\u00e9 \u00e0 \u00e9carter durablement de futures hausses de taux.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Niveaux techniques cl\u00e9s<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<!-- TradingView Widget BEGIN -->\n<div class=\"tradingview-widget-container\">\n  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-container__widget\"><\/div>\n  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-copyright\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/symbols\/GOLD\/?exchange=TVC\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><span class=\"blue-text\">GOLD chart<\/span><\/a><span class=\"trademark\">&nbsp;by TradingView<\/span><\/div>\n  <script type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.tradingview.com\/external-embedding\/embed-widget-advanced-chart.js\" async>\n  {\n  \"allow_symbol_change\": true,\n  \"calendar\": false,\n  \"details\": false,\n  \"hide_side_toolbar\": true,\n  \"hide_top_toolbar\": false,\n  \"hide_legend\": false,\n  \"hide_volume\": false,\n  \"hotlist\": false,\n  \"interval\": \"D\",\n  \"locale\": \"en\",\n  \"save_image\": true,\n  \"style\": \"1\",\n  \"symbol\": \"TVC:GOLD\",\n  \"theme\": \"dark\",\n  \"timezone\": \"Etc\/UTC\",\n  \"backgroundColor\": \"#0F0F0F\",\n  \"gridColor\": \"rgba(242, 242, 242, 0.2)\",\n  \"watchlist\": [],\n  \"withdateranges\": false,\n  \"compareSymbols\": [],\n  \"support_host\": \"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\",\n  \"studies\": [],\n  \"width\": 900,\n  \"height\": 500\n}\n  <\/script>\n<\/div>\n<!-- TradingView Widget END -->\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Niveau<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Zone<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Pourquoi c\u2019est important<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>R\u00e9sistance majeure<\/td><td>4 210 $<\/td><td>Zone de hausse apr\u00e8s les NFP et test r\u00e9cent<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>R\u00e9sistance psychologique<\/td><td>4 200 $<\/td><td>Niveau rond tr\u00e8s suivi<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>R\u00e9sistance \u00e0 court terme<\/td><td>4 160\u20134 165 $<\/td><td>Zone du plus haut intrajournalier<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Pivot<\/td><td>4 150 $<\/td><td>Zone de prix actuelle et niveau directeur \u00e0 court terme<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Support<\/td><td>4 140 $<\/td><td>Zone de stabilisation intrajournali\u00e8re et de sortie haussi\u00e8re<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Support cl\u00e9<\/td><td>4 125\u20134 130 $<\/td><td>Zone du plus bas intrajournalier du jour<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Support plus bas<\/td><td>4 100 $<\/td><td>Niveau psychologique majeur en cas de baisse<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le point de friction imm\u00e9diat se situe autour de <strong>4 150 $<\/strong>. Un maintien au-dessus pourrait pr\u00e9server un rebond vers 4 160\u20134 165 $. Une cassure franche (passage clair au-dessus avec maintien) de cette zone remettrait 4 200 $ au centre de l\u2019attention, puis le pic de vendredi \u00e0 4 210 $.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Sous 4 150 $, le march\u00e9 pourrait viser 4 140 $, puis la zone <strong>4 125\u20134 130 $<\/strong>. Une rupture durable sous ce seuil affaiblirait le rebond en cours et exposerait le niveau psychologique des 4 100 $.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Sc\u00e9narios haussiers et baissiers<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/img_6ac34ffe05ae1.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Sc\u00e9nario<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">D\u00e9clencheur<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Confirmation<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Haussier<\/td><td>Tenir au-dessus de 4 150 $ et franchir 4 165 $<\/td><td>Acc\u00e9l\u00e9ration et baisse des rendements am\u00e9ricains<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Cassure haussi\u00e8re<\/td><td>Installation au-dessus de 4 200 $<\/td><td>Maintien au-dessus du niveau psychologique, avec un nouveau test de 4 210 $<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Repli<\/td><td>Retour vers 4 140\u20134 150 $<\/td><td>D\u00e9fense du support et reprise au-dessus de la MM 9 p\u00e9riodes<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Baissier<\/td><td>Passage sous 4 125 $<\/td><td>Rendements en hausse, dollar plus ferme ou attentes de Fed plus restrictive<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Baissier renforc\u00e9<\/td><td>Installation sous 4 100 $<\/td><td>D\u00e9gradation de la structure \u00e0 court terme<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Dans un sc\u00e9nario haussier, l\u2019or pourrait prolonger son rebond si les acheteurs gardent la main au-dessus de <strong>4 150 $<\/strong> et si le prix franchit <strong>4 160\u20134 165 $<\/strong>. Un passage durable au-dessus de <strong>4 200 $<\/strong> renforcerait la dynamique et remettrait en ligne de mire le r\u00e9cent sommet \u00e0 <strong>4 210 $<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Dans un sc\u00e9nario baissier, l\u2019or pourrait de nouveau \u00eatre sous pression s\u2019il ne parvient pas \u00e0 tenir <strong>4 150 $<\/strong> et repasse sous <strong>4 140 $<\/strong>. Une rupture sous la zone de support <strong>4 125\u20134 130 $<\/strong> fragiliserait le rebond de court terme et pourrait rouvrir la voie vers le niveau psychologique des <strong>4 100 $<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Avertissement<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pr\u00e9vision sur l\u2019or : et maintenant ?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La faiblesse des NFP a r\u00e9duit le risque imm\u00e9diat d\u2019une hausse de taux de la Fed en octobre, ce qui soutient l\u2019or. Mais le retournement de vendredi montre que l\u2019or reste expos\u00e9 si les rendements obligataires am\u00e9ricains repartent \u00e0 la hausse ou si le dollar se renforce.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">L\u2019attention se tourne vers les prochaines statistiques d\u2019inflation am\u00e9ricaines et les interventions des responsables de la Fed. Une inflation qui ralentit, combin\u00e9e \u00e0 un emploi moins dynamique, renforcerait le sc\u00e9nario d\u2019une pause en octobre. \u00c0 l\u2019inverse, une inflation qui reste \u00e9lev\u00e9e, surtout si elle s\u2019accompagne de propos <strong>restrictifs<\/strong> (qui laissent entendre des taux plus \u00e9lev\u00e9s plus longtemps), pourrait maintenir les rendements \u00e0 un niveau \u00e9lev\u00e9 et compliquer une installation durable au-dessus de <strong>4 200 $<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Trader l\u2019or avec VT Markets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les <strong>CFD<\/strong> XAUUSD (contrats sur diff\u00e9rence : instruments qui r\u00e9pliquent un prix, sans d\u00e9tenir l\u2019or physique) donnent une exposition aux variations du cours de l\u2019or. L\u2019or est souvent suivi avec le dollar, les taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat, les anticipations d\u2019inflation et le contexte g\u00e9opolitique. Les traders peuvent aussi suivre l\u2019<strong>US Dollar Index (USDX)<\/strong>, un indice de la force du dollar : comme l\u2019or est cot\u00e9 en dollars, un dollar plus fort ou plus faible peut influencer la demande et le prix.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Suivez l\u2019\u00e9volution du XAUUSD en parall\u00e8le de l\u2019USDX, du <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/forex\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Forex<\/a> (march\u00e9 des devises), des <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/indices\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">indices<\/a> (paniers d\u2019actions) et d\u2019<a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/markets\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">autres march\u00e9s mondiaux de CFD<\/a> chez VT Markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">D\u00e9couvrez tous les produits sur l\u2019or chez VT Markets. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<details class=\"wp-block-details is-layout-flow wp-block-details-is-layout-flow\"><summary>FAQ<\/summary>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Pourquoi l\u2019or a-t-il mont\u00e9 apr\u00e8s le rapport NFP ?<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">L\u2019or a d\u2019abord progress\u00e9 car les cr\u00e9ations d\u2019emplois de septembre ont \u00e9t\u00e9 nettement inf\u00e9rieures aux attentes. Cela a r\u00e9duit la probabilit\u00e9 d\u2019une hausse de taux de la Fed en octobre, ce qui a fait baisser, dans un premier temps, les rendements des bons du Tr\u00e9sor et le dollar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>\u00c0 quel point le rapport NFP de septembre a-t-il \u00e9t\u00e9 faible ?<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les cr\u00e9ations d\u2019emplois hors agriculture ont augment\u00e9 de <strong>29 000<\/strong>, contre environ <strong>90 000<\/strong> attendus. Le taux de ch\u00f4mage est aussi mont\u00e9 \u00e0 <strong>4,2 %<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Pourquoi l\u2019or a-t-il recul\u00e9 apr\u00e8s 4 210 $ ?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La r\u00e9action initiale s\u2019est dissip\u00e9e lorsque les rendements ont rebondi et que le march\u00e9 a continu\u00e9 d\u2019int\u00e9grer la possibilit\u00e9 d\u2019un nouveau resserrement mon\u00e9taire plus tard dans l\u2019ann\u00e9e. L\u2019or a ensuite effac\u00e9 une partie de ses gains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Qu\u2019est-ce qui pourrait faire bouger l\u2019or ensuite ?<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les statistiques d\u2019inflation am\u00e9ricaines, les rendements des bons du Tr\u00e9sor, le dollar et les d\u00e9clarations des responsables de la R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale devraient \u00eatre les principaux moteurs des anticipations de taux pour octobre. Le march\u00e9 favorise une pause, mais l\u2019id\u00e9e d\u2019une hausse plus tard dans l\u2019ann\u00e9e reste sur la table.<\/p>\n<\/details>\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>Commencez \u00e0 trader d\u00e8s maintenant \u2014 cliquez <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr-latam\/trade-now\/\">ici<\/a> pour cr\u00e9er votre compte r\u00e9el VT Markets.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Coup de froid sur l\u2019emploi am\u00e9ricain : les NFP \u00e0 29 000 rebattent les cartes de la Fed. L\u2019or bondit vers 4 210 $, puis cale, rattrap\u00e9 par rebond des rendements.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69259,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69260","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 5.0.1.1 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Coup de froid sur l\u2019emploi am\u00e9ricain : les NFP \u00e0 29 000 rebattent les cartes de la Fed. 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