{"id":69245,"date":"2026-10-02T08:00:23","date_gmt":"2026-10-02T08:00:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr-latam\/uncategorized\/oil-surges-4-as-middle-east-supply-risks-keep-prices-elevated\/"},"modified":"2026-10-02T08:00:23","modified_gmt":"2026-10-02T08:00:23","slug":"oil-surges-4-as-middle-east-supply-risks-keep-prices-elevated","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr-latam\/analysis\/oil-surges-4-as-middle-east-supply-risks-keep-prices-elevated\/","title":{"rendered":"Le p\u00e9trole s\u2019envole, les risques sur l\u2019approvisionnement au Moyen-Orient maintenant les prix \u00e0 des niveaux \u00e9lev\u00e9s"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/oil-1.webp\" alt=\"Le p\u00e9trole bondit au fil des d\u00e9veloppements au Moyen-Orient.\" class=\"wp-image-69760\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Points cl\u00e9s<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>UKOUSD (prix du Brent cot\u00e9 en dollars) \u00e9volue autour de <strong>107,51 $<\/strong>, apr\u00e8s un rebond depuis un plus bas intrajournalier proche de <strong>107,25 $<\/strong> (plus bas observ\u00e9 dans la s\u00e9ance).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Les cours du p\u00e9trole restent soutenus par la crainte qu\u2019une escalade au Moyen-Orient ne perturbe la production r\u00e9gionale et le transport maritime.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Des informations selon lesquelles les \u00c9tats-Unis envisageraient de d\u00e9ployer des moyens militaires suppl\u00e9mentaires dans la r\u00e9gion ont renforc\u00e9 la \u00ab prime de risque g\u00e9opolitique \u00bb (surco\u00fbt de prix li\u00e9 au risque de conflit) sur le brut.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Le red\u00e9marrage de l\u2019ol\u00e9oduc est-ouest de l\u2019Arabie saoudite et la reprise des chargements de p\u00e9troliers depuis Yanbu ont restaur\u00e9 une partie des capacit\u00e9s d\u2019exportation, ce qui limite la hausse.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>La suspension \u00e9voqu\u00e9e des exportations chinoises de carburants hors Hong Kong et Macao en octobre pourrait tendre le march\u00e9 des produits raffin\u00e9s (carburants issus du raffinage, comme diesel, k\u00e9ros\u00e8ne et essence).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Mouvement de march\u00e9<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">UKOUSD \u00e9volue autour de <strong>107,51 $<\/strong>, en baisse d\u2019environ <strong>0,13 %<\/strong>. Le p\u00e9trole a d\u2019abord gliss\u00e9 d\u2019environ <strong>107,75 $<\/strong> vers un point bas proche de <strong>107,25 $<\/strong>, tandis que la moyenne mobile 9 p\u00e9riodes (moyenne des 9 derni\u00e8res bougies, utilis\u00e9e pour lisser le bruit) s\u2019orientait \u00e0 la baisse sous l\u2019effet des ventes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La dynamique s\u2019est ensuite am\u00e9lior\u00e9e. Les prix ont rebondi, repassant au-dessus de <strong>107,40 $<\/strong> et s\u2019approchant bri\u00e8vement de <strong>107,50 $<\/strong>. Depuis, UKOUSD oscille entre <strong>107,40 $ et 107,50 $<\/strong>, et la moyenne mobile recommence \u00e0 se redresser. Autour de <strong>107,50 $<\/strong>, les acheteurs reprennent la main \u00e0 tr\u00e8s court terme, sans signal de cassure nette (franchissement clair d\u2019un niveau).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Ce que les traders surveillent<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Au rythme des d\u00e9veloppements au Moyen-Orient, les cours du p\u00e9trole restent instables. Des informations indiquent que Washington \u00e9tudierait de nouveaux d\u00e9ploiements militaires, alimentant la crainte d\u2019une escalade impliquant l\u2019Iran, susceptible de menacer des infrastructures \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques ou des routes maritimes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le d\u00e9troit d\u2019Ormuz reste central : une perturbation du passage des p\u00e9troliers dans ce couloir maritime pourrait r\u00e9duire l\u2019offre physique (barils r\u00e9ellement disponibles), et pousser les prix du brut \u00e0 la hausse. \u00c0 l\u2019inverse, des \u00e9l\u00e9ments freinent le mouvement : l\u2019Arabie saoudite a relanc\u00e9 son ol\u00e9oduc est-ouest et repris des chargements \u00e0 Yanbu, ce qui permet \u00e0 une partie des exportations de contourner les risques autour du Golfe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Saudi Arabia has started exporting oil using a key cross-country pipeline after the link was repaired following drone strikes earlier this month, sources say <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/dMB3rPf9dK\">https:\/\/t.co\/dMB3rPf9dK<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Bloomberg (@business) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/business\/status\/2104536628710535272?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 28, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les produits raffin\u00e9s sont aussi \u00e0 suivre. Selon certaines informations, des raffineurs chinois auraient suspendu en octobre les exportations de carburants hors Hong Kong et Macao, ce qui pourrait r\u00e9duire la disponibilit\u00e9 mondiale de diesel, de k\u00e9ros\u00e8ne (carburant aviation) et d\u2019essence, alors que les flux russes sont d\u00e9j\u00e0 limit\u00e9s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/hashtag\/Oil?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Oil<\/a> tops $102 as <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/hashtag\/China?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#China<\/a> halts fuel exports and US moves troops to Middle East<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/aorouAJu2e\">https:\/\/t.co\/aorouAJu2e<\/a><\/p>&mdash; CNBC-TV18 (@CNBCTV18Live) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/CNBCTV18Live\/status\/2105845200774103266?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 2, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le march\u00e9 arbitre entre les craintes sur l\u2019offre et le r\u00e9tablissement partiel des exportations r\u00e9gionales, sur fond d\u2019incertitudes sur la demande de p\u00e9trole.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Niveaux techniques cl\u00e9s<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<!-- TradingView Widget BEGIN --><div class=\"tradingview-widget-container\">  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-container__widget\"><\/div>  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-copyright\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/symbols\/UKOIL\/?exchange=TVC\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><span class=\"blue-text\">UKOIL chart<\/span><\/a><span class=\"trademark\">&nbsp;by TradingView<\/span><\/div>  <script type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.tradingview.com\/external-embedding\/embed-widget-advanced-chart.js\" async>  {  \"allow_symbol_change\": true,  \"calendar\": false,  \"details\": false,  \"hide_side_toolbar\": true,  \"hide_top_toolbar\": false,  \"hide_legend\": false,  \"hide_volume\": false,  \"hotlist\": false,  \"interval\": \"D\",  \"locale\": \"en\",  \"save_image\": true,  \"style\": \"1\",  \"symbol\": \"TVC:UKOIL\",  \"theme\": \"dark\",  \"timezone\": \"Etc\/UTC\",  \"backgroundColor\": \"#0F0F0F\",  \"gridColor\": \"rgba(242, 242, 242, 0.2)\",  \"watchlist\": [],  \"withdateranges\": false,  \"compareSymbols\": [],  \"support_host\": \"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\",  \"studies\": [],  \"width\": 900,  \"height\": 500}  <\/script><\/div><!-- TradingView Widget END -->\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Niveau<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Importance<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">\u00c0 surveiller<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>108,00 $ &#8211; 108,02 $<\/td><td>R\u00e9sistance majeure<\/td><td>Plus haut de s\u00e9ance et seuil psychologique (niveau rond qui attire l\u2019attention)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>107,60 $<\/td><td>R\u00e9sistance<\/td><td>Un franchissement pourrait renforcer la dynamique haussi\u00e8re \u00e0 court terme<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>107,50 $<\/td><td>Pivot imm\u00e9diat<\/td><td>Zone de prix actuelle, point d\u2019\u00e9quilibre entre acheteurs et vendeurs<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>107,40 $<\/td><td>Premier support<\/td><td>Zone de stabilisation r\u00e9cente (phase o\u00f9 le prix a oscill\u00e9 sans tendance)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>107,25 $<\/td><td>Support cl\u00e9<\/td><td>Plus bas de s\u00e9ance et zone de retournement intrajournalier<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>107,20 $<\/td><td>Support inf\u00e9rieur<\/td><td>Une cassure pourrait ouvrir la voie \u00e0 une baisse plus marqu\u00e9e<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La zone <strong>108,00 $ &#8211; 108,02 $<\/strong> correspond au plus haut de s\u00e9ance et \u00e0 une r\u00e9sistance psychologique. Un passage au-dessus de <strong>107,60 $<\/strong> renforcerait la dynamique haussi\u00e8re \u00e0 court terme. Le prix gravite autour de <strong>107,50 $<\/strong>, pivot imm\u00e9diat o\u00f9 acheteurs et vendeurs s\u2019affrontent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00c0 la baisse, un premier support se situe \u00e0 <strong>107,40 $<\/strong>, puis <strong>107,25 $<\/strong>, le plus bas de s\u00e9ance. Une rupture nette sous <strong>107,25 $<\/strong>, puis sous <strong>107,20 $<\/strong>, augmenterait le risque de baisse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Sc\u00e9narios haussier et baissier<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/img_6abf4e2782c87.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Sc\u00e9nario<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">D\u00e9clencheur<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Mouvement possible<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Haussier<\/td><td>UKOUSD se maintient au-dessus de 107,40 $ et franchit 107,60 $<\/td><td>Possible hausse vers 107,80 $ puis 108,00 $ &#8211; 108,02 $<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Baissier<\/td><td>UKOUSD repasse sous 107,40 $<\/td><td>Retour possible de 107,25 $ au centre de l\u2019attention<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Baissier renforc\u00e9<\/td><td>Cassure nette sous 107,25 $<\/td><td>Risque de glissade vers 107,20 $ puis plus bas<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Sc\u00e9nario haussier : le march\u00e9 doit d\u00e9fendre <strong>107,40 $<\/strong> puis franchir <strong>107,60 $<\/strong>. Les acheteurs pourraient alors viser <strong>107,80 $<\/strong> puis <strong>108,00 $ &#8211; 108,02 $<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Sc\u00e9nario baissier : un passage sous <strong>107,40 $<\/strong> indiquerait que la zone de stabilisation ne tient plus, avec <strong>107,25 $<\/strong> comme objectif potentiel, en test du plus bas de s\u00e9ance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Avertissement<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Les niveaux de prix et sc\u00e9narios pr\u00e9sent\u00e9s refl\u00e8tent l\u2019analyse de l\u2019auteur au moment de la r\u00e9daction. Ils ne constituent pas un conseil en investissement ni une recommandation officielle de VT Markets. \u00c0 chacun de faire sa propre analyse et de g\u00e9rer le risque (taille de position, stop-loss, levier).<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pr\u00e9vision UKOUSD : et maintenant ?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La direction des prix devrait d\u00e9pendre des titres g\u00e9opolitiques. Toute nouvelle aggravation, ou perturbation des flux p\u00e9troliers au Moyen-Orient, pourrait propulser les cours. \u00c0 l\u2019inverse, une am\u00e9lioration des exportations saoudiennes depuis Yanbu, ou un apaisement, pourrait freiner la hausse et encourager des prises de b\u00e9n\u00e9fices (ventes apr\u00e8s hausse pour s\u00e9curiser les gains).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Il faudra aussi surveiller la confirmation de la suspension chinoise des exportations de carburants en octobre, qui soutiendrait les produits raffin\u00e9s et peut provoquer des mouvements rapides. D\u2019autres facteurs peuvent peser : avanc\u00e9es diplomatiques ou changements de sanctions visant l\u2019Iran et la Russie, \u00e9volution de l\u2019assurance des p\u00e9troliers et des co\u00fbts de fret (prix du transport), et publications \u00e9conomiques majeures. C\u00f4t\u00e9 macro\u00e9conomie, le dollar et l\u2019app\u00e9tit pour le risque (envie des investisseurs d\u2019acheter des actifs risqu\u00e9s, comme les actions) peuvent r\u00e9duire ou amplifier la prime g\u00e9opolitique, ce qui rend la zone <strong>107,40 $ &#8211; 107,60 $<\/strong> particuli\u00e8rement sensible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Trader UKOUSD avec VT Markets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">UKOUSD reste tr\u00e8s anim\u00e9 quand le risque g\u00e9opolitique, les perturbations maritimes, les inqui\u00e9tudes sur l\u2019offre et les attentes de demande \u00e9voluent en m\u00eame temps.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Avec VT Markets, les traders peuvent acc\u00e9der \u00e0 des CFD (contrats sur diff\u00e9rence : instruments permettant de sp\u00e9culer sur la hausse ou la baisse sans d\u00e9tenir l\u2019actif) sur UKOUSD, ainsi que sur le WTI, l\u2019or, le forex, des indices, des actions, des ETF et d\u2019autres march\u00e9s mondiaux, depuis une seule plateforme. Cela permet de suivre la dynamique macro, du p\u00e9trole aux anticipations d\u2019inflation, en passant par le dollar et le sentiment de march\u00e9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Utilisez les outils graphiques de VT Markets pour suivre supports, r\u00e9sistances, moyennes mobiles et comportement en cassure, \u00e0 mesure que se dessine le prochain sc\u00e9nario sur UKOUSD.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<details class=\"wp-block-details is-layout-flow wp-block-details-is-layout-flow\"><summary>FAQ<\/summary>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pourquoi UKOUSD \u00e9volue-t-il au-dessus de 107 $ ?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les prix sont soutenus par les tensions au Moyen-Orient et le risque de perturbations de l\u2019offre \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique et des routes maritimes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Quel est le principal niveau de r\u00e9sistance sur UKOUSD ?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La r\u00e9sistance imm\u00e9diate se situe vers <strong>107,60 $<\/strong>. Au-dessus, le march\u00e9 surveille <strong>107,80 $<\/strong> et le plus haut de s\u00e9ance proche de <strong>108,02 $<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Quel est le principal niveau de support sur UKOUSD ?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le premier support se situe vers <strong>107,40 $<\/strong>, puis autour de <strong>107,25 $<\/strong> (plus bas de s\u00e9ance). Une cassure sous ces niveaux fragiliserait le rebond.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">UKOUSD est-il haussier ou baissier ?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00c0 tr\u00e8s court terme, le biais est <strong>neutre \u00e0 l\u00e9g\u00e8rement haussier<\/strong> apr\u00e8s le rebond depuis 107,25 $ et le retour au-dessus de la moyenne mobile 9 p\u00e9riodes. Un franchissement de 107,60 $ renforcerait le sc\u00e9nario haussier, tandis qu\u2019une baisse sous 107,25 $ favoriserait un sc\u00e9nario baissier.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Qu\u2019est-ce qui peut faire bouger les prix du p\u00e9trole ensuite ?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les d\u00e9veloppements au Moyen-Orient, le trafic de p\u00e9troliers dans le d\u00e9troit d\u2019Ormuz, les variations de production et d\u2019exportations, l\u2019offre de produits raffin\u00e9s, les attentes de demande mondiale et les stocks (volumes disponibles) resteront des facteurs d\u00e9terminants.<\/p>\n<\/details>\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>Commencez \u00e0 trader d\u00e8s maintenant \u2014 cliquez <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr-latam\/trade-now\/\">ici<\/a> pour cr\u00e9er votre compte r\u00e9el VT Markets.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Le Brent rebondit et oscille vers 107,50 $ : la prime g\u00e9opolitique Moyen-Orient s\u2019intensifie (d\u00e9ploiements US, risque Ormuz), malgr\u00e9 reprises saoudiennes \u00e0 Yanbu. Exportations chinoises menac\u00e9es, march\u00e9 sous tension.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69244,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69245","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 5.0.1.1 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Le Brent rebondit et oscille vers 107,50 $ : la prime g\u00e9opolitique Moyen-Orient s\u2019intensifie (d\u00e9ploiements US, risque Ormuz), malgr\u00e9 reprises saoudiennes \u00e0 Yanbu. 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