{"id":69231,"date":"2026-10-01T07:59:40","date_gmt":"2026-10-01T07:59:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr-latam\/uncategorized\/dow-jones-dj30-key-levels-to-watch-before-us-non-farm-payrolls\/"},"modified":"2026-10-01T07:59:40","modified_gmt":"2026-10-01T07:59:40","slug":"dow-jones-dj30-key-levels-to-watch-before-us-non-farm-payrolls","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr-latam\/analysis\/dow-jones-dj30-key-levels-to-watch-before-us-non-farm-payrolls\/","title":{"rendered":"Dow Jones (DJ30) : niveaux cl\u00e9s \u00e0 surveiller avant les chiffres de l\u2019emploi am\u00e9ricain (NFP)"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/img_6abde21112e3d.webp\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Points cl\u00e9s<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Le DJ30 \u00e9volue autour de <strong>51\u202f076<\/strong>, en hausse d\u2019environ <strong>0,13 %<\/strong> sur la s\u00e9ance affich\u00e9e.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>L\u2019indice s\u2019est repris apr\u00e8s un plus bas intrajournalier \u00e0 <strong>51\u202f023,45<\/strong> et se traite pr\u00e8s du haut de sa r\u00e9cente fourchette.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>La r\u00e9sistance imm\u00e9diate se situe vers <strong>51\u202f080\u201351\u202f160<\/strong>, avec un plus haut de s\u00e9ance \u00e0 <strong>51\u202f159,45<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Le rapport am\u00e9ricain sur l\u2019emploi de vendredi, les <strong>NFP<\/strong> (cr\u00e9ations d\u2019emplois hors agriculture : estimation ~<strong>90\u202f000<\/strong> apr\u00e8s <strong>162\u202f000<\/strong> ; taux de ch\u00f4mage attendu \u00e0 <strong>4,1 %<\/strong>), est le prochain d\u00e9clencheur majeur pour le DJ30.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Mouvement de march\u00e9<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le DJ30 a sign\u00e9 un rebond de court terme apr\u00e8s une phase de pression vendeuse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">L\u2019indice a ouvert autour de <strong>51\u202f047,50<\/strong> puis a d\u2019abord \u00e9volu\u00e9 \u00e0 plat entre <strong>51\u202f040<\/strong> et <strong>51\u202f055<\/strong>. La demande s\u2019est ensuite renforc\u00e9e, propulsant l\u2019indice au-dessus de <strong>51\u202f070<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les cours ont ensuite \u00e9volu\u00e9 sans direction nette entre <strong>51\u202f065<\/strong> et <strong>51\u202f080<\/strong>, signe que les acheteurs d\u00e9fendent pour l\u2019instant l\u2019essentiel de la hausse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Ce que le march\u00e9 surveille<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le DJ30 reste tr\u00e8s suivi, car le march\u00e9 arbitre entre une<strong> croissance am\u00e9ricaine solide<\/strong> et les perspectives de la <strong>R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale (Fed)<\/strong> ainsi que des <strong>rendements des bons du Tr\u00e9sor<\/strong> (taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat offerts par la dette de l\u2019\u00c9tat am\u00e9ricain). Une croissance vigoureuse peut maintenir ces rendements \u00e9lev\u00e9s, ce qui peut peser sur le Dow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les \u00e9conomistes attendent environ <strong>90\u202f000<\/strong> cr\u00e9ations d\u2019emplois, en net ralentissement apr\u00e8s <strong>162\u202f000<\/strong>, avec un taux de ch\u00f4mage attendu stable \u00e0 <strong>4,1 %<\/strong>. L\u2019enqu\u00eate <strong>ADP<\/strong> (estimation des emplois dans le secteur priv\u00e9) a montr\u00e9 <strong>90\u202f000<\/strong> cr\u00e9ations mercredi, au-dessus des <strong>68\u202f000<\/strong> attendues, ce qui augmente le risque d\u2019une surprise haussi\u00e8re. Les probabilit\u00e9s d\u2019une <strong>hausse de taux<\/strong> de la Fed en octobre sont retomb\u00e9es vers <strong>39 %<\/strong> apr\u00e8s un <strong>PCE c\u0153ur<\/strong> (indice d\u2019inflation hors \u00e9l\u00e9ments volatils, mesure surveill\u00e9e par la Fed) plus mod\u00e9r\u00e9 ; une statistique d\u2019emploi solide pourrait faire remonter ces probabilit\u00e9s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Niveaux techniques cl\u00e9s<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<!-- TradingView Widget BEGIN -->\n<div class=\"tradingview-widget-container\">\n  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-container__widget\"><\/div>\n  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-copyright\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/symbols\/VANTAGE-DJ30\/\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><span class=\"blue-text\">DJ30 chart<\/span><\/a><span class=\"trademark\">&nbsp;by TradingView<\/span><\/div>\n  <script type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.tradingview.com\/external-embedding\/embed-widget-advanced-chart.js\" async>\n  {\n  \"allow_symbol_change\": true,\n  \"calendar\": false,\n  \"details\": false,\n  \"hide_side_toolbar\": true,\n  \"hide_top_toolbar\": false,\n  \"hide_legend\": false,\n  \"hide_volume\": false,\n  \"hotlist\": false,\n  \"interval\": \"D\",\n  \"locale\": \"en\",\n  \"save_image\": true,\n  \"style\": \"1\",\n  \"symbol\": \"VANTAGE:DJ30\",\n  \"theme\": \"dark\",\n  \"timezone\": \"Etc\/UTC\",\n  \"backgroundColor\": \"#0F0F0F\",\n  \"gridColor\": \"rgba(242, 242, 242, 0.2)\",\n  \"watchlist\": [],\n  \"withdateranges\": false,\n  \"compareSymbols\": [],\n  \"support_host\": \"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\",\n  \"studies\": [],\n  \"width\": 900,\n  \"height\": 500\n}\n  <\/script>\n<\/div>\n<!-- TradingView Widget END -->\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Niveau<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Interpr\u00e9tation<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>51\u202f160<\/td><td>Plus haut de s\u00e9ance et r\u00e9sistance majeure \u00e0 court terme<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>51\u202f080<\/td><td>R\u00e9sistance imm\u00e9diate<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>51\u202f070<\/td><td>Zone charni\u00e8re \u00e0 court terme (niveau pivot)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>51\u202f050<\/td><td>Premier support intrajournalier<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>51\u202f023<\/td><td>Plus bas de s\u00e9ance et support plus solide \u00e0 court terme<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>51\u202f000<\/td><td>Support psychologique cl\u00e9 (niveau \u00ab rond \u00bb souvent surveill\u00e9)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>50\u202f900<\/td><td>Zone de repli secondaire<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>50\u202f000<\/td><td>Support psychologique majeur \u00e0 plus large horizon<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le DJ30 teste actuellement la zone <strong>51\u202f070\u201351\u202f080<\/strong>. Une installation durable au-dessus pourrait remettre en ligne de mire le plus haut de s\u00e9ance vers <strong>51\u202f160<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">En cas de repli, <strong>51\u202f050<\/strong> constitue le premier niveau \u00e0 surveiller. Une cassure en dessous pourrait exposer <strong>51\u202f023<\/strong>, puis le niveau psychologique <strong>51\u202f000<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Sc\u00e9narios haussier et baissier<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/img_6abde2126c78e.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Sc\u00e9nario<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">D\u00e9clencheur<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Niveaux \u00e0 surveiller<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Haussier<\/td><td>Cassure durable au-dessus de 51\u202f080<\/td><td>51\u202f160, puis 51\u202f300<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Continuation haussi\u00e8re<\/td><td>51\u202f000\u201351\u202f050 tient en support<\/td><td>Retour vers 51\u202f080\u201351\u202f160<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Baissier<\/td><td>Cassure sous 51\u202f050<\/td><td>51\u202f023, puis 51\u202f000<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Continuation baissi\u00e8re<\/td><td>Cassure durable sous 51\u202f000<\/td><td>50\u202f900 et potentiellement plus bas<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Baissier de fond<\/td><td>D\u00e9gradation marqu\u00e9e sous les supports interm\u00e9diaires<\/td><td>50\u202f000<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Sc\u00e9nario haussier : une cassure durable au-dessus de <strong>51\u202f080<\/strong> renforcerait le rebond intrajournalier et pourrait permettre un test du plus haut de s\u00e9ance pr\u00e8s de <strong>51\u202f160<\/strong>. En cas de franchissement, <strong>51\u202f300<\/strong> deviendrait la prochaine zone \u00e0 surveiller.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Sc\u00e9nario baissier : un passage sous <strong>51\u202f050<\/strong> ouvrirait la voie vers <strong>51\u202f023<\/strong>, puis <strong>51\u202f000<\/strong>. L\u2019attention se d\u00e9placerait alors vers <strong>50\u202f900<\/strong>. Un recul nettement plus important serait n\u00e9cessaire pour que <strong>50\u202f000<\/strong> (niveau psychologique) devienne l\u2019objectif imm\u00e9diat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Avertissement<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pr\u00e9vision DJ30 : quelle suite ?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La prochaine impulsion du DJ30 d\u00e9pend largement des statistiques am\u00e9ricaines, avec un focus sur les <strong>NFP<\/strong> de vendredi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Un chiffre nettement sup\u00e9rieur \u00e0 <strong>90\u202f000<\/strong>, surtout avec des salaires dynamiques, pourrait faire remonter les rendements et pousser le DJ30 vers <strong>51\u202f000<\/strong>. \u00c0 l\u2019inverse, un chiffre inf\u00e9rieur aux attentes, ou une hausse du ch\u00f4mage, pourrait d\u00e9tendre les rendements et soutenir le DJ30. En revanche, un rapport tr\u00e8s faible pourrait raviver les craintes sur la croissance et limiter le potentiel de hausse des actions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Trader le DJ30 avec VT Markets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Pilotez votre exposition avec des plateformes de trading, des conditions tarifaires comp\u00e9titives et un effet de levier flexible (m\u00e9canisme qui permet d\u2019amplifier une position avec une mise de d\u00e9part plus faible, mais augmente les pertes potentielles).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Avec VT Markets, les investisseurs peuvent acc\u00e9der \u00e0 des <strong>CFD<\/strong> (contrats sur la diff\u00e9rence : produits d\u00e9riv\u00e9s permettant de sp\u00e9culer sur la hausse ou la baisse sans d\u00e9tenir l\u2019actif) sur le Dow Jones, ainsi qu\u2019\u00e0 des indices mondiaux, le <strong>forex<\/strong> (march\u00e9 des changes), des mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res, des actions, des <strong>ETF<\/strong> (fonds cot\u00e9s en Bourse) et d\u2019autres march\u00e9s de CFD via une seule plateforme.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<details class=\"wp-block-details is-layout-flow wp-block-details-is-layout-flow\"><summary>FAQ<\/summary>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u00c0 quel niveau \u00e9volue le DJ30 ?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le graphique montre le DJ30 autour de <strong>51\u202f076<\/strong>, en hausse d\u2019environ <strong>0,13 %<\/strong> sur la s\u00e9ance affich\u00e9e.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Le DJ30 peut-il reculer vers 50\u202f000 ?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Oui, mais plusieurs supports plus proches existent. Le DJ30 devrait d\u2019abord casser nettement sous <strong>51\u202f000<\/strong> puis sous des supports interm\u00e9diaires avant que <strong>50\u202f000<\/strong> devienne le principal niveau vis\u00e9 \u00e0 la baisse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pourquoi les NFP comptent pour le DJ30 ?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les NFP influencent les anticipations sur la politique de la Fed, les rendements des bons du Tr\u00e9sor et les perspectives \u00e9conomiques am\u00e9ricaines. Un march\u00e9 du travail solide peut maintenir les rendements \u00e9lev\u00e9s, tandis qu\u2019un affaiblissement peut renforcer l\u2019id\u00e9e d\u2019une politique mon\u00e9taire plus souple.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Qu\u2019est-ce qui pourrait soutenir une poursuite de la hausse du DJ30 ?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Une installation durable au-dessus de <strong>51\u202f080\u201351\u202f160<\/strong>, avec des rendements obligataires plus bas ou des statistiques am\u00e9ricaines moins solides, renforcerait le sc\u00e9nario haussier.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Qu\u2019est-ce qui pourrait faire baisser le DJ30 ?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Des NFP solides, une remont\u00e9e des rendements des bons du Tr\u00e9sor ou une cassure durable sous <strong>51\u202f000<\/strong> pourraient accentuer la pression baissi\u00e8re.<\/p>\n<\/details>\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>Commencez \u00e0 trader d\u00e8s maintenant \u2014 cliquez <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr-latam\/trade-now\/\">ici<\/a> pour cr\u00e9er votre compte r\u00e9el VT Markets.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Suspense sur le Dow Jones : le DJ30 rebondit vers 51\u202f076 (+0,13 %) apr\u00e8s 51\u202f023, et bute sur 51\u202f080\u201351\u202f160. Les NFP vendredi (\u224890\u202f000, ch\u00f4mage 4,1 %) feront la tendance.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69230,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[14],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69231","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 5.0.1.1 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Suspense sur le Dow Jones : le DJ30 rebondit vers 51 076 (+0,13 %) apr\u00e8s 51 023, et bute sur 51 080\u201351 160. 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