{"id":69887,"date":"2026-10-20T05:57:46","date_gmt":"2026-10-20T05:57:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr-eu\/uncategorized\/eurusd-holds-steady-amid-political-unrest-across-europe\/"},"modified":"2026-10-20T05:57:46","modified_gmt":"2026-10-20T05:57:46","slug":"eurusd-holds-steady-amid-political-unrest-across-europe","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr-eu\/analysis\/eurusd-holds-steady-amid-political-unrest-across-europe\/","title":{"rendered":"L\u2019EUR\/USD reste stable dans un contexte de troubles politiques en Europe"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/img_6ad6d3bd722b1.webp\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Points cl\u00e9s<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>L\u2019EURUSD \u00e9volue pr\u00e8s de 1,12181, en hausse de 0,06 %, tandis que le dollar am\u00e9ricain peine \u00e0 trouver une direction claire pendant la s\u00e9ance asiatique de mardi.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Les tensions politiques en France et en Italie ravivent les craintes sur la stabilit\u00e9 europ\u00e9enne, ce qui p\u00e8se sur les actions de la zone et sur les obligations d\u2019\u00c9tat.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>L\u2019\u00e9cart de rendement (spread), en points de base, entre les obligations d\u2019\u00c9tat fran\u00e7aises et allemandes \u00e0 10 ans s\u2019est \u00e9largi de 9,9 points de base \u00e0 147,3 points de base lundi.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>L\u2019indice du dollar (US Dollar Index, un indicateur qui mesure la force du dollar face \u00e0 un panier de grandes devises) a atteint 102 lundi, tandis que le rendement du Treasury am\u00e9ricain \u00e0 10 ans est rest\u00e9 \u00e0 5,131 %.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Mouvement de march\u00e9<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">L\u2019EURUSD s\u2019\u00e9changeait pr\u00e8s de <strong>1,12181<\/strong> pendant la s\u00e9ance asiatique de mardi, avec un gain modeste de <strong>0,06 %<\/strong>. L\u2019am\u00e9lioration progressive de la confiance des investisseurs a soutenu les devises sensibles au risque, mais l\u2019incertitude politique en Europe a limit\u00e9 la hausse de l\u2019euro.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La paire a \u00e9volu\u00e9 dans un couloir intrajournalier \u00e9troit, avec un plus haut \u00e0 <strong>1,12203<\/strong> et un plus bas \u00e0 <strong>1,12089<\/strong>. Les cours sont rest\u00e9s concentr\u00e9s autour de <strong>1,12180<\/strong>, signe que ni les acheteurs ni les vendeurs n\u2019ont impos\u00e9 une domination durable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">L\u2019indice du dollar a affich\u00e9 un sommet \u00e0 <strong>102<\/strong> lundi, illustrant une demande toujours pr\u00e9sente malgr\u00e9 un contexte mondial instable. Dans le m\u00eame temps, le rendement du Treasury am\u00e9ricain \u00e0 10 ans est rest\u00e9 stable \u00e0 <strong>5,131 %<\/strong>, ce qui laisse l\u2019EURUSD davantage sensible au climat politique europ\u00e9en qu\u2019\u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9volution des rendements am\u00e9ricains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pourquoi les traders surveillent ce dossier<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les \u00e9volutions politiques en France sont devenues une source d\u2019incertitude pour l\u2019euro. Les autorit\u00e9s fran\u00e7aises ont instaur\u00e9 des couvre-feux dans plusieurs villes lundi apr\u00e8s des manifestations nationales anti-gouvernementales ayant perturb\u00e9 l\u2019ordre public, accentuant la pression en fin de mandat du pr\u00e9sident Emmanuel Macron.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ces troubles ravivent les inqui\u00e9tudes sur la trajectoire budg\u00e9taire de la France, alors que le Parlement se pr\u00e9pare \u00e0 son premier vote formel sur la section \u00ab recettes \u00bb du projet de <strong>budget 2027<\/strong>. De nouveaux d\u00e9saccords politiques pourraient compliquer les discussions budg\u00e9taires et fragiliser la dette de l\u2019\u00c9tat fran\u00e7ais.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les march\u00e9s obligataires ont d\u00e9j\u00e0 int\u00e9gr\u00e9 ces risques. L\u2019\u00e9cart de rendement entre les obligations d\u2019\u00c9tat fran\u00e7aises et allemandes \u00e0 10 ans s\u2019est \u00e9largi \u00e0 <strong>142,3 points de base<\/strong> lundi. Cet \u00e9largissement signifie que les investisseurs exigent une r\u00e9mun\u00e9ration plus \u00e9lev\u00e9e pour d\u00e9tenir de la dette fran\u00e7aise plut\u00f4t que de la dette allemande.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<p><blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Investors Abandoning French Government Bonds for German Bunds <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/5icGXC7osx\">https:\/\/t.co\/5icGXC7osx<\/a><\/p>&mdash; WSJ Markets (@WSJmarkets) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/WSJmarkets\/status\/2108361012051136600?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 9, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les tensions politiques s\u2019\u00e9tendent aussi \u00e0 l\u2019Italie, o\u00f9 le gouvernement a annonc\u00e9 le d\u00e9ploiement de 500 militaires apr\u00e8s deux jours de troubles. M\u00eame si l\u2019euro reste globalement stable, une instabilit\u00e9 dans plusieurs grandes \u00e9conomies europ\u00e9ennes pourrait accro\u00eetre la pression sur la monnaie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<p><blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Violent protests spread from France to Italy and Belgium <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/evvm5uqg7i\">https:\/\/t.co\/evvm5uqg7i<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Financial Times (@FT) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/FT\/status\/2112184808025583737?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 19, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Niveaux cl\u00e9s pour le trading<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<!-- TradingView Widget BEGIN -->\n<div class=\"tradingview-widget-container\">\n  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-container__widget\"><\/div>\n  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-copyright\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/symbols\/EURUSD\/?exchange=OANDA\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><span class=\"blue-text\">Graphique EURUSD<\/span><\/a><span class=\"trademark\">&nbsp;par TradingView<\/span><\/div>\n  <script type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.tradingview.com\/external-embedding\/embed-widget-advanced-chart.js\" async>\n<p>  {<\/p>\n<p>  \"allow_symbol_change\": true,<\/p>\n<p>  \"calendar\": false,<\/p>\n<p>  \"details\": false,<\/p>\n<p>  \"hide_side_toolbar\": true,<\/p>\n<p>  \"hide_top_toolbar\": false,<\/p>\n<p>  \"hide_legend\": false,<\/p>\n<p>  \"hide_volume\": false,<\/p>\n<p>  \"hotlist\": false,<\/p>\n<p>  \"interval\": \"D\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"locale\": \"en\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"save_image\": true,<\/p>\n<p>  \"style\": \"1\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"symbol\": \"OANDA:EURUSD\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"theme\": \"dark\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"timezone\": \"Etc\/UTC\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"backgroundColor\": \"#0F0F0F\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"gridColor\": \"rgba(242, 242, 242, 0.2)\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"watchlist\": [],<\/p>\n<p>  \"withdateranges\": false,<\/p>\n<p>  \"compareSymbols\": [],<\/p>\n<p>  \"support_host\": \"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"studies\": [],<\/p>\n<p>  \"width\": 900,<\/p>\n<p>  \"height\": 500<\/p>\n<p>}<\/p>\n  <\/script>\n<\/div>\n<!-- TradingView Widget END -->\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Niveau<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Prix<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Signification technique<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>R\u00e9sistance 2<\/td><td>1,12203<\/td><td>Plus haut de s\u00e9ance et niveau de cassure (breakout), c\u2019est-\u00e0-dire un seuil o\u00f9 le cours pourrait sortir de sa zone actuelle<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>R\u00e9sistance 1<\/td><td>1,122<\/td><td>R\u00e9sistance psychologique imm\u00e9diate, un chiffre rond souvent surveill\u00e9<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Pivot<\/td><td>1,1218<\/td><td>Zone de prix actuelle<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Support 1<\/td><td>1,1216<\/td><td>Niveau de r\u00e9action \u00e0 court terme, o\u00f9 les acheteurs peuvent revenir<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Support 2<\/td><td>1,1214<\/td><td>Support intrajournalier r\u00e9cent<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Support 3<\/td><td>1,12089<\/td><td>Plus bas de s\u00e9ance et rep\u00e8re en cas de baisse<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">L\u2019EURUSD a connu un rebond de court terme puis une phase de stabilisation <strong>sous 1,12200<\/strong>. La moyenne mobile \u00e0 9 p\u00e9riodes (MA9, une moyenne des 9 derni\u00e8res cl\u00f4tures qui sert \u00e0 rep\u00e9rer la tendance) s\u2019est orient\u00e9e \u00e0 la hausse apr\u00e8s le rebond depuis 1,12140, mais les derniers mouvements montrent un essoufflement de la dynamique pr\u00e8s de la r\u00e9sistance. La paire n\u2019a pas r\u00e9ussi \u00e0 conserver des gains <strong>au-dessus de 1,12200<\/strong>, un niveau de r\u00e9sistance imm\u00e9diat \u00e0 surveiller.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00c0 la baisse, <strong>1,12160<\/strong> constitue la premi\u00e8re zone de support. Un passage sous ce seuil pourrait viser <strong>1,12140<\/strong>, o\u00f9 des acheteurs \u00e9taient apparus auparavant. Une baisse plus marqu\u00e9e vers <strong>1,12089<\/strong> indiquerait que le rebond manque de force.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Sc\u00e9narios haussier et baissier<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/img_6ad6d3bec05d8.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Sc\u00e9nario<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">D\u00e9clencheur<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Objectif potentiel<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Cassure haussi\u00e8re<\/td><td>Mouvement durable au-dessus de 1,12203<\/td><td>1,12220\u20131,12240<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Rebond haussier<\/td><td>Maintien au-dessus de 1,12160<\/td><td>1,12180\u20131,12200<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Rejet baissier<\/td><td>\u00c9chec sous 1,12200<\/td><td>1,1216<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Rupture baissi\u00e8re<\/td><td>Passage sous 1,12140<\/td><td>1,12089<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Un sc\u00e9nario haussier supposerait que l\u2019EURUSD construise un support <strong>au-dessus de 1,12160<\/strong> avant de retester la zone de r\u00e9sistance 1,12200\u20131,12203. Une am\u00e9lioration du go\u00fbt du risque et une d\u00e9tente des inqui\u00e9tudes politiques en Europe pourraient favoriser ce mouvement. Une cassure confirm\u00e9e pourrait permettre une extension vers 1,12220\u20131,12240.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00c0 l\u2019inverse, un sc\u00e9nario baissier pourrait se former si l\u2019EURUSD continue de subir des ventes <strong>pr\u00e8s de 1,12200<\/strong>. Un passage sous 1,12160 affaiblirait le rebond, tandis qu\u2019une baisse sous 1,12140 pourrait ramener la paire vers le plus bas de s\u00e9ance \u00e0 1,12089. Un nouvel \u00e9largissement des spreads obligataires France-Allemagne pourrait renforcer cette pression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Avertissement<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Les niveaux de prix et les sc\u00e9narios de march\u00e9 ci-dessus refl\u00e8tent l\u2019\u00e9valuation de l\u2019auteur au moment de la r\u00e9daction. Ils ne constituent pas un conseil financier ni une recommandation officielle de VT Markets. Les traders doivent r\u00e9aliser leur propre analyse et g\u00e9rer le risque avec prudence.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pr\u00e9vision EURUSD : quelle suite ?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">L\u2019EURUSD pourrait rester enferm\u00e9 dans une fourchette \u00e0 court terme, les traders arbitrant entre l\u2019am\u00e9lioration de l\u2019app\u00e9tit pour le risque au niveau mondial et la mont\u00e9e de l\u2019incertitude politique en Europe. La stabilit\u00e9 de la paire sugg\u00e8re que les investisseurs ne consid\u00e8rent pas encore les troubles en France comme une crise financi\u00e8re plus large de la zone euro. Toutefois, une nouvelle pression sur les obligations d\u2019\u00c9tat fran\u00e7aises pourrait fragiliser la confiance dans la monnaie unique.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le prochain catalyseur sera l\u2019\u00e9volution du dossier du budget fran\u00e7ais 2027 et la r\u00e9action des march\u00e9s obligataires europ\u00e9ens. Une avanc\u00e9e vers un accord budg\u00e9taire cr\u00e9dible pourrait r\u00e9duire le risque souverain (le risque qu\u2019un \u00c9tat ait des difficult\u00e9s \u00e0 financer sa dette) et soutenir l\u2019EURUSD. \u00c0 l\u2019inverse, des troubles prolong\u00e9s ou des spreads plus \u00e9lev\u00e9s pourraient peser sur la paire.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Trader l\u2019EURUSD avec VT Markets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">L\u2019EURUSD est l\u2019une des paires de devises (forex, march\u00e9 des changes) les plus \u00e9chang\u00e9es au monde. Elle permet de se positionner sur les anticipations li\u00e9es \u00e0 la Banque centrale europ\u00e9enne, \u00e0 la R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale, \u00e0 l\u2019inflation, \u00e0 la croissance et au climat de risque mondial.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Avec <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">VT Markets<\/a>, les traders peuvent suivre les mouvements de l\u2019EURUSD, analyser les tendances techniques et g\u00e9rer leurs positions via des plateformes comme MetaTrader 4, MetaTrader 5 et l\u2019application VT Markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<details class=\"wp-block-details is-layout-flow wp-block-details-is-layout-flow\"><summary>Foire aux questions<\/summary>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pourquoi l\u2019EURUSD \u00e9volue-t-il pr\u00e8s de 1,12181 ?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">L\u2019EURUSD \u00e9volue pr\u00e8s de 1,12181 car un l\u00e9ger regain d\u2019app\u00e9tit pour le risque soutient l\u2019euro, tandis que les tensions politiques en France et en Italie limitent la hausse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Comment les tensions politiques en France peuvent-elles affecter l\u2019EURUSD ?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">L\u2019instabilit\u00e9 politique peut affaiblir la confiance dans les actifs europ\u00e9ens et accro\u00eetre la demande pour des valeurs jug\u00e9es plus s\u00fbres. Si les rendements des obligations d\u2019\u00c9tat fran\u00e7aises continuent de monter par rapport \u00e0 ceux de l\u2019Allemagne, l\u2019euro pourrait subir davantage de pression vendeuse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Quels sont les principaux niveaux de r\u00e9sistance pour l\u2019EURUSD ?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La r\u00e9sistance imm\u00e9diate se situe \u00e0 1,12200, puis au plus haut de s\u00e9ance \u00e0 1,12203. Une cassure durable au-dessus de ces niveaux pourrait soutenir un rebond vers 1,12220\u20131,12240.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Quels sont les principaux niveaux de support pour l\u2019EURUSD ?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le support imm\u00e9diat est \u00e0 1,12160, puis \u00e0 1,12140. Si la pression vendeuse s\u2019intensifie, l\u2019EURUSD pourrait retester le plus bas de s\u00e9ance \u00e0 1,12089.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">L\u2019EURUSD peut-il monter malgr\u00e9 l\u2019incertitude politique en Europe ?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Oui. L\u2019EURUSD pourrait se renforcer si les rendements des Treasuries am\u00e9ricains baissent, si le dollar recule ou si la situation politique europ\u00e9enne se stabilise. Cependant, une hausse durable exigerait un regain net de demande et une cassure confirm\u00e9e au-dessus des r\u00e9sistances de court terme.<\/p>\n<\/details>\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>Commencez \u00e0 trader d\u00e8s maintenant \u2014 cliquez <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr-eu\/trade-now\/\">ici<\/a> pour cr\u00e9er votre compte r\u00e9el VT Markets.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>L\u2019EUR\/USD oscille pr\u00e8s de 1,1218 : un fr\u00e9missement, mais la politique fait trembler l\u2019euro. Les tensions France-Italie \u00e9largissent les spreads OAT-Bund, tandis que dollar (DXY 102) et Treasuries restent stables.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69886,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[28],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69887","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 5.0.1.1 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"L\u2019EUR\/USD oscille pr\u00e8s de 1,1218 : un fr\u00e9missement, mais la politique fait trembler l\u2019euro. 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