{"id":69873,"date":"2026-10-19T09:57:55","date_gmt":"2026-10-19T09:57:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr-eu\/uncategorized\/crude-oil-falls-as-russian-supply-weighs-on-prices\/"},"modified":"2026-10-19T09:57:55","modified_gmt":"2026-10-19T09:57:55","slug":"crude-oil-falls-as-russian-supply-weighs-on-prices","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr-eu\/analysis\/crude-oil-falls-as-russian-supply-weighs-on-prices\/","title":{"rendered":"Le p\u00e9trole brut recule, l\u2019offre russe pesant sur les prix"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/img_6ad5be2ebfef4.webp\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Points cl\u00e9s<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>USOUSD met fin \u00e0 une s\u00e9rie de sept s\u00e9ances de hausse, les op\u00e9rateurs r\u00e9\u00e9valuant la possible arriv\u00e9e de volumes suppl\u00e9mentaires de carburants russes.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>La d\u00e9cision du pr\u00e9sident Donald Trump de suspendre des sanctions et des droits de douane visant la Russie alimente les attentes d\u2019une offre mondiale de p\u00e9trole plus abondante.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Les attaques contre des p\u00e9troliers pr\u00e8s du d\u00e9troit d\u2019Ormuz et les frappes ukrainiennes sur des infrastructures p\u00e9troli\u00e8res russes continuent de menacer l\u2019offre.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>La hausse plus forte qu\u2019attendu des prix \u00e0 l\u2019importation aux \u00c9tats-Unis renforce les craintes d\u2019inflation avant la d\u00e9cision de la R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale (Fed) sur les taux.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>La r\u00e9sistance se situe vers 98,500\u201398,550, tandis que les supports autour de 98,400 et 98,350 pourraient dicter le prochain mouvement de court terme.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Mouvement de march\u00e9<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les prix du p\u00e9trole brut am\u00e9ricain ont recul\u00e9 lundi <strong>19 octobre<\/strong>, mettant fin \u00e0 une s\u00e9rie de sept s\u00e9ances de hausse, les investisseurs r\u00e9examinant les conditions d\u2019offre mondiale apr\u00e8s la d\u00e9cision de Washington d\u2019assouplir les restrictions sur les exportations \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques russes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<p><blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Oil falls from five-month high as supply intact despite fighting<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/tzZ3wSPxU1\">https:\/\/t.co\/tzZ3wSPxU1<\/a><\/p>&mdash; The Business Times (@BusinessTimes) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/BusinessTimes\/status\/2112064964999479304?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 19, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le <strong>West Texas Intermediate (WTI)<\/strong> \u2014 une r\u00e9f\u00e9rence du p\u00e9trole brut am\u00e9ricain \u2014 s\u2019\u00e9changeait autour de <strong>98,498<\/strong> lors de la derni\u00e8re s\u00e9ance. Le contrat a connu de fortes variations en s\u00e9ance, avec une br\u00e8ve progression vers <strong>98,550<\/strong>, suivie d\u2019un repli rapide vers <strong>98,370<\/strong>. Les prix se sont ensuite redress\u00e9s vers <strong>98,500<\/strong>, signe d\u2019un retour des acheteurs sur des niveaux plus bas, malgr\u00e9 la baisse sur l\u2019ensemble de la s\u00e9ance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pourquoi les op\u00e9rateurs surveillent la situation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le recul fait suite \u00e0 la d\u00e9cision du pr\u00e9sident Donald Trump de suspendre temporairement des sanctions et des droits de douane visant la Russie, ce qui pourrait permettre \u00e0 davantage de carburants russes d\u2019arriver sur les march\u00e9s internationaux. Ce changement de politique r\u00e9duit certaines craintes imm\u00e9diates de p\u00e9nurie, notamment alors que la Turquie se pr\u00e9pare \u00e0 absorber des volumes suppl\u00e9mentaires d\u2019exportations de diesel russe. Toutefois, les attaques contre des p\u00e9troliers pr\u00e8s du d\u00e9troit d\u2019Ormuz et les frappes de drones ukrainiens visant des infrastructures p\u00e9troli\u00e8res russes maintiennent les risques sur l\u2019offre \u00e0 un niveau \u00e9lev\u00e9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<p><blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Ukraine launched a massive overnight aerial attack, sending hundreds of drones toward targets in Moscow and St. Petersburg, striking a major oil terminal again despite pressure from President Trump to end such attacks. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/tvt1mylRon\">https:\/\/t.co\/tvt1mylRon<\/a><\/p>&mdash; ABC News (@ABC) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/ABC\/status\/2111800494121247112?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 18, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La politique mon\u00e9taire am\u00e9ricaine est aussi un \u00e9l\u00e9ment important. En septembre, les prix \u00e0 l\u2019importation ont augment\u00e9 plus que pr\u00e9vu, en partie \u00e0 cause d\u2019un rench\u00e9rissement de l\u2019\u00e9nergie, ce qui renforce les craintes d\u2019une inflation durable. Si la Fed d\u00e9cide d\u2019ajouter une nouvelle hausse de taux \u2014 c\u2019est-\u00e0-dire relever le co\u00fbt du cr\u00e9dit \u2014 cela pourrait peser davantage sur les prix du p\u00e9trole.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les op\u00e9rateurs surveillent la prochaine r\u00e9union du Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) \u2014 le comit\u00e9 de la Fed qui fixe les taux \u2014, les chiffres d\u2019inflation PCE (indice des d\u00e9penses de consommation, l\u2019indicateur privil\u00e9gi\u00e9 par la Fed), ainsi que les \u00e9volutions touchant les approvisionnements \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques russes et moyen-orientaux, pour y lire des indices sur la direction future des prix.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Niveaux techniques cl\u00e9s<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<!-- TradingView Widget BEGIN -->\n<div class=\"tradingview-widget-container\">\n  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-container__widget\"><\/div>\n  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-copyright\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/symbols\/USOIL\/?exchange=TVC\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><span class=\"blue-text\">USOIL chart<\/span><\/a><span class=\"trademark\">&nbsp;by TradingView<\/span><\/div>\n  <script type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.tradingview.com\/external-embedding\/embed-widget-advanced-chart.js\" async>\n<p>  {<\/p>\n<p>  \"allow_symbol_change\": true,<\/p>\n<p>  \"calendar\": false,<\/p>\n<p>  \"details\": false,<\/p>\n<p>  \"hide_side_toolbar\": true,<\/p>\n<p>  \"hide_top_toolbar\": false,<\/p>\n<p>  \"hide_legend\": false,<\/p>\n<p>  \"hide_volume\": false,<\/p>\n<p>  \"hotlist\": false,<\/p>\n<p>  \"interval\": \"D\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"locale\": \"en\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"save_image\": true,<\/p>\n<p>  \"style\": \"1\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"symbol\": \"TVC:USOIL\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"theme\": \"dark\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"timezone\": \"Etc\/UTC\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"backgroundColor\": \"#0F0F0F\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"gridColor\": \"rgba(242, 242, 242, 0.2)\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"watchlist\": [],<\/p>\n<p>  \"withdateranges\": false,<\/p>\n<p>  \"compareSymbols\": [],<\/p>\n<p>  \"support_host\": \"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"studies\": [],<\/p>\n<p>  \"width\": 900,<\/p>\n<p>  \"height\": 500<\/p>\n<p>}<\/p>\n  <\/script>\n<\/div>\n<!-- TradingView Widget END -->\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Niveau<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Prix (USD)<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Signification technique<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>R\u00e9sistance 2<\/td><td>98.55<\/td><td>Plus haut r\u00e9cent en s\u00e9ance et r\u00e9sistance sup\u00e9rieure<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>R\u00e9sistance 1<\/td><td>98.5<\/td><td>R\u00e9sistance imm\u00e9diate et zone de rejet r\u00e9p\u00e9t\u00e9e<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Prix actuel<\/td><td>98.498<\/td><td>Dernier prix cot\u00e9<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Support 1<\/td><td>98.45<\/td><td>Support de court terme et zone de consolidation (phase de stabilisation)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Support 2<\/td><td>98.4<\/td><td>Ancien point bas de r\u00e9action et support psychologique (niveau rond per\u00e7u comme important)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Support 3<\/td><td>98.370\u201398.350<\/td><td>Zone de rebond en s\u00e9ance et support inf\u00e9rieur<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">USOUSD fait face \u00e0 une r\u00e9sistance imm\u00e9diate \u00e0 <strong>98,500<\/strong>, niveau sur lequel les tentatives r\u00e9centes de prolonger le rebond peinent \u00e0 s\u2019imposer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00c0 la baisse, <strong>98,450<\/strong> constitue la premi\u00e8re zone de support. Un passage sous ce niveau pourrait ouvrir la voie \u00e0 <strong>98,400<\/strong>, puis \u00e0 la <strong>zone 98,370\u201398,350<\/strong>, o\u00f9 des acheteurs s\u2019\u00e9taient d\u00e9j\u00e0 manifest\u00e9s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La moyenne mobile \u00e0 neuf p\u00e9riodes \u2014 un indicateur qui lisse les prix sur les neuf derni\u00e8res unit\u00e9s de temps \u2014 reste proche du prix actuel, ce qui sugg\u00e8re un manque de conviction. Tant que les cours oscillent autour de <strong>98,500<\/strong>, les op\u00e9rateurs peuvent attendre une cassure durable \u00e0 la hausse ou \u00e0 la baisse avant d\u2019\u00e9valuer la prochaine direction de court terme.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Sc\u00e9narios haussiers et baissiers<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/img_6ad5be3019fb6.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Sc\u00e9nario<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">D\u00e9clencheur<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Objectif potentiel<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Implication de march\u00e9<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Rebond haussier<\/td><td>Le prix se maintient au-dessus de 98.500<\/td><td>98.55<\/td><td>Les acheteurs reprennent la main \u00e0 court terme<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Cassure haussi\u00e8re<\/td><td>Mouvement durable au-dessus de 98.550<\/td><td>Hausse suppl\u00e9mentaire, non confirm\u00e9e<\/td><td>Acc\u00e9l\u00e9ration du rebond<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Rejet baissier<\/td><td>Le prix n\u2019arrive pas \u00e0 tenir 98.500<\/td><td>98.45<\/td><td>Le courant vendeur revient<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Cassure baissi\u00e8re<\/td><td>Le prix passe sous 98.400<\/td><td>98.370\u201398.350<\/td><td>Le mouvement baissier se renforce<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Un sc\u00e9nario haussier pourrait se mettre en place si USOUSD parvient \u00e0 s\u2019installer <strong>au-dessus de 98,500<\/strong>. Cela indiquerait que les acheteurs absorbent la pression vendeuse imm\u00e9diate, ce qui pourrait permettre un nouveau test de <strong>98,550<\/strong>. Un franchissement durable de cette r\u00e9sistance pourrait ouvrir la voie \u00e0 de nouveaux gains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00c0 l\u2019inverse, un sc\u00e9nario baissier pourrait \u00e9merger si les prix ne parviennent pas \u00e0 conserver le rebond pr\u00e8s de <strong>98,500<\/strong>. Un repli sous <strong>98,450<\/strong> remettrait <strong>98,400<\/strong> au centre de l\u2019attention.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Avertissement<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Les niveaux de prix et sc\u00e9narios de march\u00e9 ci-dessus refl\u00e8tent l\u2019analyse de l\u2019auteur au moment de la r\u00e9daction. Ils ne constituent ni un conseil financier ni une recommandation officielle de VT Markets. Chaque op\u00e9rateur doit r\u00e9aliser sa propre analyse et g\u00e9rer le risque avec rigueur.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pr\u00e9vision USOUSD : quelle suite ?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Si la suspension des sanctions am\u00e9ricaines introduit une source potentielle d\u2019offre suppl\u00e9mentaire, les march\u00e9s restent incertains quant \u00e0 sa mise en \u0153uvre et \u00e0 sa stabilit\u00e9. Les attaques touchant le d\u00e9troit d\u2019Ormuz et des infrastructures \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques russes limitent aussi le potentiel de baisse : toute perturbation de la navigation ou des installations d\u2019exportation peut raviver la demande de p\u00e9trole brut.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les anticipations d\u2019inflation et de taux aux \u00c9tats-Unis influenceront aussi les perspectives. Si la R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale conserve une orientation restrictive \u2014 autrement dit des taux \u00e9lev\u00e9s plus longtemps \u2014, un dollar plus ferme et des attentes de demande plus faibles pourraient peser sur le brut. \u00c0 l\u2019inverse, un apaisement des craintes d\u2019inflation pourrait soutenir le sentiment de march\u00e9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Trader USOUSD avec VT Markets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les clients peuvent acc\u00e9der \u00e0 USOUSD via VT Markets et suivre les mouvements du p\u00e9trole brut avec l\u2019application VT Markets, MetaTrader 4 et MetaTrader 5.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le p\u00e9trole peut r\u00e9agir rapidement aux changements d\u2019anticipations sur l\u2019offre mondiale, aux \u00e9v\u00e9nements g\u00e9opolitiques, aux donn\u00e9es de stocks et aux perturbations du transport maritime. Ces facteurs peuvent acc\u00e9l\u00e9rer les mouvements de prix et accro\u00eetre la volatilit\u00e9 (variations rapides et amples).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Avec les outils de graphiques et d\u2019analyse de march\u00e9 de VT Markets, les op\u00e9rateurs peuvent suivre le momentum (la force du mouvement), rep\u00e9rer les niveaux de support et de r\u00e9sistance, et \u00e9valuer des configurations de trading possibles sur USOUSD.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<details class=\"wp-block-details is-layout-flow wp-block-details-is-layout-flow\"><summary>Foire aux questions <\/summary>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pourquoi USOUSD baisse-t-il aujourd\u2019hui ?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">USOUSD recule car les \u00c9tats-Unis ont temporairement lev\u00e9 des sanctions et des droits de douane visant la Russie, ce qui renforce l\u2019attente d\u2019exportations russes de carburants plus \u00e9lev\u00e9es. La perspective d\u2019une offre suppl\u00e9mentaire p\u00e8se sur le brut, malgr\u00e9 des perturbations g\u00e9opolitiques toujours pr\u00e9sentes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Quels sont les principaux niveaux de support et de r\u00e9sistance sur USOUSD ?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La r\u00e9sistance imm\u00e9diate se situe vers 98,500 et 98,550. Les supports se trouvent autour de 98,450 et 98,400, puis sur la zone basse 98,370\u201398,350.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Les prix du p\u00e9trole peuvent-ils monter malgr\u00e9 des exportations russes en hausse ?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Oui. De nouvelles attaques sur des infrastructures \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques, des restrictions autour du d\u00e9troit d\u2019Ormuz ou des perturbations des routes maritimes pourraient r\u00e9duire l\u2019offre disponible et soutenir les prix.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Comment la R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale peut-elle influencer les prix de USOUSD ?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Des taux plus \u00e9lev\u00e9s peuvent renforcer le dollar et d\u00e9grader les perspectives d\u2019activit\u00e9 \u00e9conomique et donc de demande de p\u00e9trole. Une perspective mon\u00e9taire moins restrictive pourrait apporter un soutien, m\u00eame si les conditions d\u2019offre physique restent d\u00e9terminantes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Que doivent surveiller les traders ensuite sur USOUSD ?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les op\u00e9rateurs peuvent suivre l\u2019\u00e9volution des exportations russes de carburants, les perturbations du transport maritime au Moyen-Orient, les statistiques d\u2019inflation am\u00e9ricaines et la prochaine r\u00e9union de la R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale.<\/p>\n<\/details>\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>Commencez \u00e0 trader d\u00e8s maintenant \u2014 cliquez <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr-eu\/trade-now\/\">ici<\/a> pour cr\u00e9er votre compte r\u00e9el VT Markets.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Coup d\u2019arr\u00eat sur le WTI : apr\u00e8s sept s\u00e9ances de hausse, le baril reflue vers 98,5 $. L\u2019assouplissement am\u00e9ricain sur la Russie ravive l\u2019offre, malgr\u00e9 risques Ormuz et pression Fed.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69872,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[28],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69873","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 5.0.1.1 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Coup d\u2019arr\u00eat sur le WTI : apr\u00e8s sept s\u00e9ances de hausse, le baril reflue vers 98,5 $. 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