{"id":69839,"date":"2026-10-16T05:59:30","date_gmt":"2026-10-16T05:59:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr-eu\/uncategorized\/new-zealand-dollar-recovers-from-18-month-low\/"},"modified":"2026-10-16T05:59:30","modified_gmt":"2026-10-16T05:59:30","slug":"new-zealand-dollar-recovers-from-18-month-low","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr-eu\/analysis\/new-zealand-dollar-recovers-from-18-month-low\/","title":{"rendered":"Le dollar n\u00e9o-z\u00e9landais se redresse apr\u00e8s un plus bas de 18 mois"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/img_6ad198d674702.webp\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Points cl\u00e9s<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Le NZD\/USD se redresse vers 0,5640, apr\u00e8s un plus bas de 18 mois, car la baisse des rendements des bons du Tr\u00e9sor am\u00e9ricain (taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat des obligations d\u2019\u00c9tat des \u00c9tats-Unis) p\u00e8se sur le dollar.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Les anticipations de hausse de taux de la RBNZ soutiennent le kiwi, apr\u00e8s que l\u2019\u00e9conomiste en chef Paul Conway a indiqu\u00e9 qu\u2019une hausse de l\u2019Official Cash Rate (OCR, le taux directeur de la Banque de r\u00e9serve de Nouvelle-Z\u00e9lande) reste le sc\u00e9nario le plus probable.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Les donn\u00e9es am\u00e9ricaines d\u2019inflation et de d\u00e9penses restent solides, ce qui maintient l\u2019attention sur la possibilit\u00e9 de nouvelles hausses de taux de la R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale (Fed), malgr\u00e9 la r\u00e9cente faiblesse du dollar.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Le prochain catalyseur majeur est le rapport d\u2019inflation du troisi\u00e8me trimestre en Nouvelle-Z\u00e9lande, dont la publication devrait influencer les march\u00e9s avant la r\u00e9union de la RBNZ du 28 octobre.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>La r\u00e9sistance technique se situe \u00e0 0,5640, tandis que des supports vers 0,5635 et 0,5630 pourraient d\u00e9cider si le rebond de court terme se poursuit.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Mouvement de march\u00e9<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le dollar n\u00e9o-z\u00e9landais s\u2019est renforc\u00e9 vendredi, prolongeant son rebond apr\u00e8s un <strong>plus bas de 18 mois<\/strong>, la baisse des rendements des bons du Tr\u00e9sor am\u00e9ricain exer\u00e7ant une pression sur le billet vert.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le NZD\/USD est remont\u00e9 vers <strong>0,5620<\/strong> dans le cadre du rebond g\u00e9n\u00e9ral. Lors de la derni\u00e8re s\u00e9ance, la paire s\u2019\u00e9changeait \u00e0 <strong>0,56398<\/strong>, en hausse de <strong>0,35 %<\/strong>. Le mouvement en s\u00e9ance traduit un regain d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat pour le kiwi apr\u00e8s plusieurs semaines de ventes continues.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le kiwi gagne environ <strong>0,3 %<\/strong> cette semaine, et pourrait mettre fin \u00e0 une s\u00e9rie de sept semaines de baisse. M\u00eame si ce rebond sugg\u00e8re un essoufflement de la pression baissi\u00e8re, la tendance reste tr\u00e8s sensible aux attentes de taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat en Nouvelle-Z\u00e9lande et aux \u00c9tats-Unis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pourquoi les traders surveillent ce dossier<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le rebond du NZD\/USD attire l\u2019attention, car les op\u00e9rateurs r\u00e9\u00e9valuent les perspectives de politique mon\u00e9taire de la <strong>Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ)<\/strong> et de la R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale am\u00e9ricaine (Fed).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Jeudi, l\u2019\u00e9conomiste en chef de la RBNZ, Paul Conway, a indiqu\u00e9 que la d\u00e9cision de fin octobre sur les taux reste ouverte. Toutefois, les d\u00e9cideurs continuent de consid\u00e9rer qu\u2019une hausse de l\u2019OCR (le taux directeur officiel) est le sc\u00e9nario le plus probable, m\u00eame si le calendrier reste incertain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ces propos soutiennent le dollar n\u00e9o-z\u00e9landais en confortant l\u2019id\u00e9e que le co\u00fbt du cr\u00e9dit pourrait monter. Des taux plus \u00e9lev\u00e9s peuvent rendre une devise plus attractive, surtout si les investisseurs anticipent un \u00e9cart de taux (diff\u00e9rence de taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat entre deux pays) moins d\u00e9favorable face \u00e0 d\u2019autres \u00e9conomies. En parall\u00e8le, la baisse des rendements am\u00e9ricains affaiblit le dollar, ce qui rend l\u2019environnement plus favorable au NZD\/USD.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<p><blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The dollar just had its worst day in over a month, despite ongoing inflation pressures.<br><br>The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.3% Thursday as worries about AI pushed investors into Treasuries, sending yields lower.<br><br>Read more: <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/8fRrZnimK4\">https:\/\/t.co\/8fRrZnimK4<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/SMu0yejZEh\">pic.twitter.com\/SMu0yejZEh<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Yahoo Finance (@YahooFinance) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/YahooFinance\/status\/2110864560487804938?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 15, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Niveaux cl\u00e9s \u00e0 surveiller<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<!-- TradingView Widget BEGIN -->\n<div class=\"tradingview-widget-container\">\n  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-container__widget\"><\/div>\n  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-copyright\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/symbols\/NZDUSD\/?exchange=OANDA\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><span class=\"blue-text\">NZDUSD chart<\/span><\/a><span class=\"trademark\">&nbsp;by TradingView<\/span><\/div>\n  <script type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.tradingview.com\/external-embedding\/embed-widget-advanced-chart.js\" async>\n<p>  {<\/p>\n<p>  \"allow_symbol_change\": true,<\/p>\n<p>  \"calendar\": false,<\/p>\n<p>  \"details\": false,<\/p>\n<p>  \"hide_side_toolbar\": true,<\/p>\n<p>  \"hide_top_toolbar\": false,<\/p>\n<p>  \"hide_legend\": false,<\/p>\n<p>  \"hide_volume\": false,<\/p>\n<p>  \"hotlist\": false,<\/p>\n<p>  \"interval\": \"D\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"locale\": \"en\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"save_image\": true,<\/p>\n<p>  \"style\": \"1\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"symbol\": \"OANDA:NZDUSD\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"theme\": \"dark\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"timezone\": \"Etc\/UTC\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"backgroundColor\": \"#0F0F0F\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"gridColor\": \"rgba(242, 242, 242, 0.2)\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"watchlist\": [],<\/p>\n<p>  \"withdateranges\": false,<\/p>\n<p>  \"compareSymbols\": [],<\/p>\n<p>  \"support_host\": \"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\",<\/p>\n<p>  \"studies\": [],<\/p>\n<p>  \"width\": 900,<\/p>\n<p>  \"height\": 500<\/p>\n<p>}<\/p>\n  <\/script>\n<\/div>\n<!-- TradingView Widget END -->\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Niveau<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Prix<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Signification technique<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>R\u00e9sistance imm\u00e9diate<\/td><td>0,564<\/td><td>Niveau \u00ab psychologique \u00bb proche du plus haut de la s\u00e9ance sur le graphique<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>R\u00e9sistance de court terme<\/td><td>0,5638<\/td><td>Zone r\u00e9cente de stabilisation avant la derni\u00e8re hausse<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Support imm\u00e9diat<\/td><td>0,5635<\/td><td>Ancienne zone de sortie par le haut et de stabilisation<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Support secondaire<\/td><td>0,563<\/td><td>Ancienne zone trait\u00e9e en s\u00e9ance<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Support inf\u00e9rieur<\/td><td>0,56275<\/td><td>Zone approximative de d\u00e9part du rebond visible<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La paire encha\u00eene des sommets et des creux de plus en plus hauts, tout en restant au-dessus de sa moyenne mobile sur neuf p\u00e9riodes (moyenne du prix sur les 9 derni\u00e8res bougies, utilis\u00e9e pour visualiser la tendance). La r\u00e9sistance imm\u00e9diate se situe \u00e0 <strong>0,56400<\/strong>, o\u00f9 le NZD\/USD se rapproche de la borne haute de sa zone d\u2019\u00e9changes visible. Une cassure durable au-dessus de ce niveau pourrait signaler que les acheteurs gardent la main.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00c0 la baisse, <strong>0,56350<\/strong> constitue le premier support notable, car ce niveau a servi de zone de stabilisation pendant le rebond. Un passage sous ce seuil pourrait exposer 0,56300, o\u00f9 les cours \u00e9voluaient avant la remont\u00e9e.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Sc\u00e9narios haussiers et baissiers<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/img_6ad198d7efc97.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Sc\u00e9nario<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">D\u00e9clencheur<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Objectif potentiel<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Implication pour le march\u00e9<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Cassure haussi\u00e8re<\/td><td>Cassure durable au-dessus de 0,56400<\/td><td>Hausse suppl\u00e9mentaire, objectif non confirm\u00e9<\/td><td>Poursuite possible de la dynamique haussi\u00e8re<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Poursuite haussi\u00e8re<\/td><td>Le prix se maintient au-dessus de 0,56350<\/td><td>0,56380\u20130,56400<\/td><td>Les acheteurs conservent le contr\u00f4le du rebond<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Rejet baissier<\/td><td>Le prix \u00e9choue \u00e0 franchir 0,56400<\/td><td>0,5635<\/td><td>Repli possible \u00e0 court terme<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Rupture baissi\u00e8re<\/td><td>Le prix passe sous 0,56350<\/td><td>0,56300\u20130,56275<\/td><td>Le rebond perd de la force<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Un sc\u00e9nario haussier pourrait se dessiner si le NZD\/USD se maintient au-dessus de <strong>0,56350<\/strong> et parvient \u00e0 franchir 0,56400. La structure actuelle, avec des sommets et des creux ascendants, indique un regain de dynamisme des acheteurs, appuy\u00e9 par une moyenne mobile sur neuf p\u00e9riodes orient\u00e9e \u00e0 la hausse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Un sc\u00e9nario baissier pourrait appara\u00eetre si le NZD\/USD fait face \u00e0 des ventes autour de <strong>0,56400<\/strong> et n\u2019arrive pas \u00e0 installer une zone d\u2019\u00e9changes plus haute. Un premier repli vers 0,56350 testerait la solidit\u00e9 de la r\u00e9cente sortie par le haut. Si ce support casse, la paire pourrait reculer vers 0,56300, puis vers la zone plus basse en s\u00e9ance autour de 0,56275.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Avertissement<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Les niveaux de prix et sc\u00e9narios de march\u00e9 ci-dessus refl\u00e8tent l\u2019analyse de l\u2019auteur au moment de la r\u00e9daction. Ils ne constituent pas un conseil en investissement ni une recommandation officielle de VT Markets. Les traders doivent r\u00e9aliser leur propre analyse et g\u00e9rer le risque avec prudence.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pr\u00e9vision NZDUSD : qu\u2019est-ce qui pourrait le faire monter ou baisser ensuite ?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le prochain catalyseur important sera le rapport d\u2019inflation du troisi\u00e8me trimestre en Nouvelle-Z\u00e9lande, attendu la semaine prochaine. Derni\u00e8re grande publication avant la r\u00e9union de la RBNZ du 28 octobre, ce chiffre pourrait influencer les anticipations de march\u00e9 sur le calendrier et la probabilit\u00e9 d\u2019une hausse de taux.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Une inflation plus forte que pr\u00e9vu pourrait renforcer l\u2019argument en faveur d\u2019un durcissement de la politique mon\u00e9taire (politique de la banque centrale qui vise notamment \u00e0 freiner l\u2019inflation, souvent via une hausse des taux) et soutenir le kiwi. \u00c0 l\u2019inverse, une inflation plus faible pourrait r\u00e9duire l\u2019id\u00e9e d\u2019une hausse imminente, et limiter le rebond de la devise. Une poursuite de la baisse des rendements am\u00e9ricains pourrait aussi aider la paire, en r\u00e9duisant l\u2019attrait relatif des actifs libell\u00e9s en dollars (placements dont la valeur est en dollar am\u00e9ricain).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Trader le NZDUSD avec VT Markets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le NZD\/USD fait partie des principales paires de devises propos\u00e9es par VT Markets. Les traders peuvent acc\u00e9der au march\u00e9 des changes via l\u2019application VT Markets, MetaTrader 4, MetaTrader 5 et d\u2019autres plateformes compatibles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Gr\u00e2ce aux graphiques en temps r\u00e9el, aux indicateurs techniques (outils de lecture des prix, par exemple moyennes mobiles) et aux outils d\u2019analyse, les traders peuvent suivre les mouvements du NZD\/USD et \u00e9valuer comment les publications \u00e9conomiques, les attentes de taux et les d\u00e9cisions des banques centrales influencent les cours.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<details class=\"wp-block-details is-layout-flow wp-block-details-is-layout-flow\"><summary><strong>Foire aux questions<\/strong><\/summary>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pourquoi le NZD\/USD monte-t-il ?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le NZD\/USD s\u2019est renforc\u00e9 parce que la baisse des rendements des bons du Tr\u00e9sor am\u00e9ricain a affaibli le dollar, tandis que les propos restrictifs (ton \u00ab faucon \u00bb, c\u2019est-\u00e0-dire favorable \u00e0 des taux plus \u00e9lev\u00e9s pour lutter contre l\u2019inflation) de Paul Conway, \u00e9conomiste en chef de la RBNZ, ont soutenu l\u2019id\u00e9e d\u2019une possible hausse de taux en Nouvelle-Z\u00e9lande.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Quels sont les principaux niveaux de support pour le NZD\/USD ?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le premier support se situe vers 0,56350, puis 0,56300 et 0,56275. Ces niveaux correspondent \u00e0 des zones r\u00e9centes de stabilisation et de rebond visibles sur le graphique.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Comment l\u2019inflation n\u00e9o-z\u00e9landaise peut-elle affecter le NZD\/USD ?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Une inflation sup\u00e9rieure aux attentes pourrait renforcer les anticipations de hausse de taux par la RBNZ, et donc soutenir le dollar n\u00e9o-z\u00e9landais. Une inflation plus faible pourrait au contraire r\u00e9duire ces anticipations et peser sur le NZD\/USD.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u00c0 quand la prochaine d\u00e9cision de la RBNZ sur les taux ?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La prochaine d\u00e9cision de la RBNZ est pr\u00e9vue le 28 octobre 2026, selon les informations de march\u00e9 fournies. Les traders suivront les donn\u00e9es d\u2019inflation du troisi\u00e8me trimestre avant la r\u00e9union, pour obtenir des indices sur l\u2019orientation de la politique de la banque centrale.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Le NZD\/USD peut-il continuer \u00e0 monter ?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le NZD\/USD pourrait prolonger son rebond si la paire franchit 0,56400 et si les anticipations de taux restent favorables au kiwi. En revanche, une demande plus forte de dollars ou des indicateurs n\u00e9o-z\u00e9landais plus faibles pourraient inverser la dynamique de court terme.<\/p>\n<\/details>\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>Commencez \u00e0 trader d\u00e8s maintenant \u2014 cliquez <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr-eu\/trade-now\/\">ici<\/a> pour cr\u00e9er votre compte r\u00e9el VT Markets.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Attention au kiwi : le NZD\/USD rebondit vers 0,5640, dop\u00e9 par la baisse des rendements US et des paris de hausse de l\u2019OCR. L\u2019inflation n\u00e9o-z\u00e9landaise T3 sera d\u00e9cisive.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69838,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[28],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69839","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 5.0.1.1 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Attention au kiwi : le NZD\/USD rebondit vers 0,5640, dop\u00e9 par la baisse des rendements US et des paris de hausse de l\u2019OCR. 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