{"id":69553,"date":"2026-10-12T09:58:23","date_gmt":"2026-10-12T09:58:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr-eu\/uncategorized\/brent-oil-falls-as-trumps-energy-ceasefire-announcement-weighs-on-prices\/"},"modified":"2026-10-12T09:58:23","modified_gmt":"2026-10-12T09:58:23","slug":"brent-oil-falls-as-trumps-energy-ceasefire-announcement-weighs-on-prices","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr-eu\/analysis\/brent-oil-falls-as-trumps-energy-ceasefire-announcement-weighs-on-prices\/","title":{"rendered":"Le Brent recule, l\u2019annonce par Trump d\u2019un cessez-le-feu \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique pesant sur les prix"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/img_6acc78f318dcd.webp\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Points cl\u00e9s<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Le UKOUSD s\u2019\u00e9change \u00e0 106,969 $ (\u20111,829 $, soit \u20111,68 %), apr\u00e8s un plus haut \u00e0 108,718 $ et un plus bas \u00e0 105,433 $.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Les contrats \u00e0 terme (prix fix\u00e9 \u00e0 l\u2019avance pour une livraison future) sur le Brent ont recul\u00e9 lundi matin, apr\u00e8s l\u2019annonce par le pr\u00e9sident am\u00e9ricain Donald Trump d\u2019un cessez-le-feu \u00ab \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique \u00bb entre la Russie et l\u2019Ukraine.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Le pr\u00e9sident ukrainien Volodymyr Zelenskyy a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 attendre des d\u00e9tails sur l\u2019accord propos\u00e9, tandis que la Russie n\u2019a pas confirm\u00e9 publiquement sa participation.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Les attaques des Houthis contre l\u2019Arabie saoudite, dont des frappes meurtri\u00e8res sur l\u2019a\u00e9roport international de Riyad, entretiennent les craintes sur la stabilit\u00e9 r\u00e9gionale et sur d\u2019\u00e9ventuelles perturbations de l\u2019approvisionnement en \u00e9nergie.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Les intervenants surveillent l\u2019inflation am\u00e9ricaine, la r\u00e9union de politique mon\u00e9taire d\u2019octobre de la R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale (Fed, banque centrale des \u00c9tats-Unis) et toute nouvelle \u00e9volution pouvant affecter les flux d\u2019\u00e9nergie russes et moyen-orientaux.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Mouvement de march\u00e9<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les cours du p\u00e9trole ont recul\u00e9 lundi 12 octobre 2026, apr\u00e8s l\u2019annonce par Donald Trump d\u2019un cessez-le-feu \u00ab \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique \u00bb entre la Russie et l\u2019Ukraine, qui a fait esp\u00e9rer moins de perturbations des exportations russes. Les contrats \u00e0 terme sur le Brent ont baiss\u00e9 <strong>\u00e0 106,969 $ (\u20111,68 %)<\/strong>. Cette d\u00e9claration intervient apr\u00e8s un autre accord \u00c9tats-Unis\u2013Russie visant \u00e0 remettre sur le march\u00e9 des volumes suppl\u00e9mentaires de diesel russe. \u00c0 ce stade, aucune entente formalis\u00e9e entre Kiev et Moscou n\u2019a \u00e9t\u00e9 confirm\u00e9e.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Malgr\u00e9 le recul, le UKOUSD est remont\u00e9 d\u2019environ <strong>106,40 $<\/strong> vers 107,00 $ sur la p\u00e9riode la plus active. Ce rebond montre que des acheteurs reviennent sur les replis, m\u00eame si la baisse de fond indique que la pression vendeuse reste pr\u00e9sente.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Ce que le march\u00e9 surveille<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Si le cessez-le-feu \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique Russie\u2013Ukraine se concr\u00e9tise, il pourrait r\u00e9duire les craintes de p\u00e9nurie qui ont soutenu les prix ces derniers mois. Mais tant que les deux gouvernements ne valident pas clairement l\u2019accord, la r\u00e9action du march\u00e9 peut s\u2019inverser rapidement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Dans le m\u00eame temps, les forces houthis ont intensifi\u00e9 leurs attaques contre l\u2019Arabie saoudite. Des frappes sur l\u2019a\u00e9roport international de Riyad ont fait au moins 12 morts samedi, puis un autre d\u00e9c\u00e8s a \u00e9t\u00e9 signal\u00e9 apr\u00e8s l\u2019attaque de dimanche. Ces \u00e9v\u00e9nements ravivent les inqui\u00e9tudes sur la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 r\u00e9gionale, d\u2019autant que des incidents impliquant des p\u00e9troliers se poursuivent pr\u00e8s du d\u00e9troit d\u2019Ormuz, un passage maritime strat\u00e9gique pour le transport d\u2019\u00e9nergie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">M\u00eame si ces attaques n\u2019ont pas, \u00e0 ce stade, provoqu\u00e9 une baisse comparable de la production, le risque de perturbations du transport maritime, la hausse des co\u00fbts d\u2019assurance et la vuln\u00e9rabilit\u00e9 des infrastructures d\u2019exportation continuent de soutenir les prix du brut.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Niveaux techniques cl\u00e9s<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<!-- TradingView Widget BEGIN -->\n<div class=\"tradingview-widget-container\">\n  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-container__widget\"><\/div>\n  <div class=\"tradingview-widget-copyright\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/symbols\/UKOIL\/?exchange=TVC\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\" target=\"_blank\"><span class=\"blue-text\">UKOIL chart<\/span><\/a><span class=\"trademark\">&nbsp;by TradingView<\/span><\/div>\n  <script type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.tradingview.com\/external-embedding\/embed-widget-advanced-chart.js\" async>\n  {\n  \"allow_symbol_change\": true,\n  \"calendar\": false,\n  \"details\": false,\n  \"hide_side_toolbar\": true,\n  \"hide_top_toolbar\": false,\n  \"hide_legend\": false,\n  \"hide_volume\": false,\n  \"hotlist\": false,\n  \"interval\": \"D\",\n  \"locale\": \"en\",\n  \"save_image\": true,\n  \"style\": \"1\",\n  \"symbol\": \"TVC:UKOIL\",\n  \"theme\": \"dark\",\n  \"timezone\": \"Etc\/UTC\",\n  \"backgroundColor\": \"#0F0F0F\",\n  \"gridColor\": \"rgba(242, 242, 242, 0.2)\",\n  \"watchlist\": [],\n  \"withdateranges\": false,\n  \"compareSymbols\": [],\n  \"support_host\": \"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\",\n  \"studies\": [],\n  \"width\": 900,\n  \"height\": 500\n}\n  <\/script>\n<\/div>\n<!-- TradingView Widget END -->\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Niveau de prix<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Type<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Signification technique<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>107,00 $\u2013107,05 $<\/td><td>R\u00e9sistance (zone o\u00f9 le prix a du mal \u00e0 monter)<\/td><td>Sommet r\u00e9cent en s\u00e9ance et seuil psychologique<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>106,85 $\u2013106,90 $<\/td><td>R\u00e9sistance imm\u00e9diate<\/td><td>Zone de stabilisation r\u00e9cente des cours<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>106,80 $<\/td><td>Support imm\u00e9diat (zone o\u00f9 le prix a du mal \u00e0 baisser)<\/td><td>Rupture r\u00e9cente et zone des moyennes mobiles (indicateur qui lisse les prix pour d\u00e9gager une tendance)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>106,60 $\u2013106,65 $<\/td><td>Support secondaire<\/td><td>Zone de stabilisation plus t\u00f4t en s\u00e9ance<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>106,40 $\u2013106,45 $<\/td><td>Support bas<\/td><td>Borne basse de la fourchette observ\u00e9e<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le UKOUSD est remont\u00e9 d\u2019environ <strong>106,40 $<\/strong> vers 107,00 $. La zone des 107,00 $ est la r\u00e9sistance \u00e0 surveiller. Les prix ont bri\u00e8vement franchi ce niveau avant de replier, signe que les vendeurs restent actifs pr\u00e8s du haut de la fourchette observ\u00e9e.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00c0 la baisse, 106,80 $ constitue la premi\u00e8re zone o\u00f9 les acheteurs pourraient tenter de d\u00e9fendre le rebond. Une cassure sous ce niveau pourrait ouvrir la voie vers <strong>106,60 $<\/strong>, puis vers les plus bas proches de 106,40 $.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Sc\u00e9narios haussiers et baissiers<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/img_6acc78f656f5a.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Sc\u00e9nario<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">D\u00e9clencheur<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Objectifs possibles<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Signal d\u2019invalidation<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Rupture haussi\u00e8re<\/td><td>Installation au-dessus de 107,05 $<\/td><td>107,20 $, puis 107,40 $<\/td><td>Retour sous 106,85 $<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Rebond haussier<\/td><td>Le prix se maintient au-dessus de 106,80 $<\/td><td>106,95 $\u2013107,05 $<\/td><td>Cassure sous 106,60 $<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Rejet baissier<\/td><td>\u00c9chec sous 107,00 $\u2013107,05 $<\/td><td>106,80 $, puis 106,60 $<\/td><td>Rupture confirm\u00e9e au-dessus de 107,05 $<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Rupture baissi\u00e8re<\/td><td>Installation sous 106,60 $<\/td><td>106,45 $, puis 106,40 $<\/td><td>Retour au-dessus de 106,80 $<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Un sc\u00e9nario haussier pourrait se dessiner si le UKOUSD tient <strong>au-dessus de 106,80 $<\/strong> et franchit la zone de r\u00e9sistance 107,00 $\u2013107,05 $. Cela signalerait un renforcement de l\u2019\u00e9lan acheteur \u00e0 court terme, avec des cibles possibles vers 107,20 $ puis 107,40 $.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Un sc\u00e9nario baissier pourrait appara\u00eetre si le UKOUSD n\u2019arrive pas \u00e0 d\u00e9passer 107,00 $ et repasse <strong>sous 106,80 $<\/strong>. Une cassure ensuite sous 106,60 $ affaiblirait le rebond et remettrait en jeu 106,45 $\u2013106,40 $.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Avertissement<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Les niveaux de prix et sc\u00e9narios ci-dessus refl\u00e8tent l\u2019analyse de l\u2019auteur au moment de la r\u00e9daction. Ils ne constituent pas un conseil en investissement ni une recommandation officielle de VT Markets. Chacun doit r\u00e9aliser sa propre analyse et g\u00e9rer le risque (c\u2019est-\u00e0-dire limiter les pertes possibles, par exemple via une taille de position adapt\u00e9e ou des ordres stop).<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pr\u00e9vision UKOUSD : quels facteurs peuvent le faire monter ou baisser ?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Des attaques contre des installations \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques, des perturbations prolong\u00e9es des p\u00e9troliers ou un \u00e9chec des discussions sur le cessez-le-feu pourraient raviver la crainte d\u2019un manque d\u2019offre. Une demande mondiale plus forte que pr\u00e9vu pourrait aussi soutenir les prix.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u00c0 l\u2019inverse, une confirmation du cessez-le-feu \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique Russie\u2013Ukraine, des arriv\u00e9es suppl\u00e9mentaires de carburants russes, une am\u00e9lioration de la situation du transport maritime au Moyen-Orient, ou des indicateurs \u00e9conomiques faibles pourraient r\u00e9duire les craintes sur l\u2019offre et peser sur les prix.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">En dehors de la g\u00e9opolitique, les intervenants se pr\u00e9parent aussi \u00e0 la publication de l\u2019indice des prix \u00e0 la consommation (CPI, mesure de l\u2019inflation pour les m\u00e9nages) aux \u00c9tats-Unis, pr\u00e9vue mercredi 14 octobre. Une inflation plus \u00e9lev\u00e9e que pr\u00e9vu peut renforcer l\u2019id\u00e9e d\u2019une Fed plus restrictive (c\u2019est-\u00e0-dire des taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat maintenus plus hauts), soutenir le dollar et exercer une pression sur les mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res libell\u00e9es en dollars comme le p\u00e9trole.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Trader le UKOUSD avec VT Markets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les march\u00e9s p\u00e9troliers restent sensibles \u00e0 la g\u00e9opolitique, aux variations d\u2019offre et aux statistiques \u00e9conomiques. Pour ceux qui suivent le UKOUSD, croiser ces informations avec les niveaux techniques aide \u00e0 lire l\u2019\u00e9volution du march\u00e9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Avec VT Markets, il est possible de traiter des CFD (contrats sur la diff\u00e9rence : produit qui r\u00e9plique un prix et permet de sp\u00e9culer sans d\u00e9tenir l\u2019actif) sur le p\u00e9trole, et de prendre des positions \u00e0 l\u2019achat (parier sur une hausse) ou \u00e0 la vente (parier sur une baisse) selon le sc\u00e9nario.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">VT Markets donne acc\u00e8s \u00e0 des plateformes de trading comme MetaTrader 5 (MT5, logiciel de passage d\u2019ordres et d\u2019analyse), le trading web et l\u2019application VT Markets, ainsi qu\u2019\u00e0 des outils de graphiques et des analyses de march\u00e9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<details class=\"wp-block-details is-layout-flow wp-block-details-is-layout-flow\"><summary><strong>Foire aux questions<\/strong><\/summary>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pourquoi le UKOUSD baisse-t-il aujourd\u2019hui ?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Le UKOUSD est sous pression apr\u00e8s l\u2019annonce par Donald Trump d\u2019un projet de cessez-le-feu \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique Russie\u2013Ukraine, qui fait esp\u00e9rer moins de perturbations des flux russes. Cela a r\u00e9duit une partie des craintes imm\u00e9diates sur l\u2019offre, m\u00eame si l\u2019accord n\u2019est pas confirm\u00e9 par les deux pays.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Les prix du p\u00e9trole peuvent-ils continuer de baisser ?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Une poursuite du repli est possible si le cessez-le-feu est mis en \u0153uvre et si davantage de volumes russes reviennent sur le march\u00e9. En revanche, de nouvelles attaques contre l\u2019Arabie saoudite et les risques persistants autour du d\u00e9troit d\u2019Ormuz pourraient limiter la baisse ou provoquer un nouveau rebond.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Comment l\u2019inflation am\u00e9ricaine influence-t-elle le UKOUSD ?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Une inflation am\u00e9ricaine \u00e9lev\u00e9e peut modifier les anticipations de taux de la Fed et le niveau du dollar. Un dollar plus fort a tendance \u00e0 peser sur les prix du p\u00e9trole (cot\u00e9s en dollars), et la crainte d\u2019un ralentissement \u00e9conomique peut affaiblir les perspectives de demande. Des perturbations de l\u2019offre peuvent toutefois contrebalancer ces effets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Peut-on acheter et vendre le UKOUSD sur VT Markets ?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">VT Markets propose le trading de CFD sur le p\u00e9trole, ce qui permet, pour les clients \u00e9ligibles, de prendre des positions acheteuses ou vendeuses sans d\u00e9tenir de p\u00e9trole physique.<\/p>\n<\/details>\n\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><b>Commencez \u00e0 trader d\u00e8s maintenant \u2014 cliquez <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vtmarkets.com\/fr-eu\/trade-now\/\">ici<\/a> pour cr\u00e9er votre compte r\u00e9el VT Markets.<\/b>\n\n<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Coup de froid sur le Brent : \u00e0 106,97 $, le UKOUSD recule apr\u00e8s l\u2019annonce d\u2019un cessez-le-feu \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique Russie-Ukraine. Mais l\u2019escalade houthie et le CPI am\u00e9ricain pourraient raviver volatilit\u00e9.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":87,"featured_media":69552,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[28],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-69553","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analysis"],"acf":{"acf_article_selection_author":null},"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO Pro 5.0.1.1 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Coup de froid sur le Brent : \u00e0 106,97 $, le UKOUSD recule apr\u00e8s l\u2019annonce d\u2019un cessez-le-feu \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique Russie-Ukraine. 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